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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9924612 - 03/06/09 06:14 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

"Those who got in around this time will look like friggin' geniuses in a years time."

I disagree.


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9924631 - 03/06/09 06:18 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Hotnuts said:
"Those who got in around this time will look like friggin' geniuses in a years time."

I disagree.




:tinfoil:


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Ferris]
    #9924763 - 03/06/09 06:45 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

me too. a year is WAY too optimistic.

these companies have inflated themselves for too long now. Knock Knock. Housekeeping.

gigs up.

good investments, but don't expect 1000% in a year.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #9928203 - 03/07/09 12:52 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

If I make 20% in a year, I'll be content. What are banks paying on a cd? More like 3%. So 20 would be a lot better. We will see. I predict that stocks will go back up but the nay sayers will tell us "they will go back down" instead of admitting we were right.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9944889 - 03/10/09 10:20 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

So you gonna flip those GE stocks now? ^^


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Ferris]
    #9945319 - 03/10/09 11:47 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

"So you gonna flip those GE stocks now? ^^"

Hey, I'm in the black already!! :laugh: I made 9k today so far. That wipes out my losses to date and puts me over 5k to the good. I made it on GE although ebay was up too. I was meaning to buy more ge but didn't get around to it. Now I'll wait until it dips.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 11, 2009 - No Action [Re: geokills]
    #9954628 - 03/11/09 08:56 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

The rubber band continues to stretch...




But it didn't break...
                                I'm cautiously optimistic!
:awebig:






Yesterday, we found the market rising over 6% on the second highest volume in 20 years!  Volume tells truth, so this should be a pretty big deal.  The markets are still oversold and we still have a hugely disproportionate number of bears out there.  Consumer credit has been showing signs of improvement and we are well on our way toward working off excess housing inventory.  Couple this with the fact that institutional investment funds have weighted themselves heavily towards fixed income over the past year and it is plain to see that the table has been set for a sustained advance as big money is re-allocated back into equities; as more bears are converted to bulls and as we work off our extreme oversold conditions. The icing on the cake is that we held our support today even after such an extreme bounce yesterday.  This is exactly what you want to see when developing a solid base upon which to move higher, and it's exactly what's been missing from every other UP day we've had over the past month maybe more.

There are admittedly a lot of negatives still present, with strong unemployment numbers, federal legislation that is not friendly to the market, not to mention the very troubled financial system.  Even today, oil reversed to the downside and gold started to move higher.  As oil is an indicator of global economic productivity and gold is an indicator of fear and uncertainty, this action is negative and worth keeping an eye on.  However, with various government stimulus programs going into effect and especially if we get a modification of mark-to-market rules from the government, it is not unreasonable to consider that the current quarter or next could be the trough in earnings.  Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) both reported good news regarding profitability last month, and even Citigroup (C) of all banks followed suit this week by indicating a profitable two months to start their quarter.  JPMorgan (JPM) said much the same, a stock I've already been building a position in.  With the S&P 500 typically trading at 15 times normalized (trend line) earnings and 12 times earnings during the trough (over the past 70 years), it's not a long shot to see how Monday's 10 times earnings S&P managed to break out to the upside in a big way on HUGE volume.

So what does all this mean??

The bulls have been given a chance to produce a sustainable rally to the upside. 

For my part, I'm holding 14% cash, which is just about as low as I feel comfortable going.  As we continue to post gains, I will be trimming my less favored positions.  Frankly, I'm holding just way too many stocks right now and its a burden to keep up with 'em all.  The important takeaway here is that I believe we will continue to post gains, perhaps for several months.  I'm anticipating reaching 800 on the S&P 500, some 11% higher than where the market went out today.  And if we get revised mark-to-market rules and dare I say the uptick rule reinstated, financial stocks would definitely explode to the upside.  Afterall, they are borrowing money from the government for practically nothing, have been increasing their deposits and when they do lend, get to take home a very nice spread as profit.

The stage is set, and I am tentatively looking to swap out of my positions in Hatteras Financial (HTS) & General Electric (GE) in order to put that money to work in Bank of America (BAC) & Wells Fargo (WFC).  I will maintain my position in JPMorgan (JPM).  I think the time is nearing (if not already here) where it makes sense to start positioning oneself for a recovery.  I would love to be in Goldman Sachs (GS), but I will wait until the stock falls below $80 before making it a reality.  Industrial stocks like Caterpillar (CAT) are still not the best place to be.  They will be carried up with the market, but will find little support beyond that.  Major industrials simply have too much inventory to work through.  As OPEC slows oil production and China ramps up economic activity, I like solid dividend paying oil stocks such as BP plc (BP) and Marathon Oil (MRO).

For those of you who are reading into my excitement and might be asking yourself, "Is this the bottom? Should I go all in?!"  Take a step back and realize that the economy is still in dire straits, and that the stock market is likely to have some very wild swings left in store for us ahead.  While the stock market is a forward pricing mechanism that will recover well before the actual economy picks up; if you need your money within the next 3 - 5 years, don't put it in the market, there is simply too much that remains unknown. 

If you don't mind committing for several years, I'd say that this is an absolutely fantastic time to start investing.  I see the market in favor of the bulls near-term, though that's not to say we won't revisit our lows at some point in the intermediate-term.  It's going to be a bumpy ride to be sure, but if you have the time, inclination (and stomach!), it could prove to be a very lucrative opportunity!

As we near 800 on the S&P, I will be closing my Ultra S&P500 Proshares (SSO) position and looking for opportunities to short the stocks of companies that were carried higher in the updraft, but that continue to face debilitating fundamental problems.  At the top of my Short List sits two casino/entertainment operators: MGM Grand (MGM) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS).


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/11/2009:
  • 14.3% Cash
  • 12.7% Altria (MO)
  • 9.5% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.8% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.2% UltraShort 20yr US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.4% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.4% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.3% Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
  • 3.9% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.9% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% General Electric (GE)
  • 3.7% Powershares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.6% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.5% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.4% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.3% PepsiCo (PEP)
  • 3.3% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 3.2% Ultra S&P500 Proshares (SSO)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: geokills]
    #9958858 - 03/12/09 03:03 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

It looks like my cautious optimism is continuing to pay off here, with the markets up a whopping 4% today with excellent breadth (even though volume was a little lighter than the 10-day average).  All of the things I've mentioned in my last several updates are holding true, with the S&P well on its way up to its 50-day moving average which stands around 800 (another 6.6% above today's close).  Importantly, we closed today above the 741 level which was last November's extreme low.  This was an important area of resistance and if we stay above it tomorrow the bulls will have strengthened their advantage, up to the 50 day moving average where I believe we will get hit with some pretty massive selling pressure.

While I do not advocate chasing stocks, I did want to increase my financial exposure a bit, as all of the major banks have made positive comments recently and the government looks ready to provide some mark to market rule modifications as well as a reinstatement of the uptick rule for short sellers.  Furthermore, there is a rumour that Raymond James Financial will no longer allow retail (non-institutional) investors to use the 2x leveraged ETF's like the UltraShort Proshares Financial (SKF).


  • Wells Fargo (WFC) - Bought 90 shares $11.52

    The stock had already had a very nice move above its lows around $8... and while I couldn't get in at that time with my bid at $7.75, I decided that the high volume buying in conjunction with the near-term macro picture will support further advances in the stock.  Wells Fargo has traditionally been a conservatively run institution that was able to dodge much of the sub-prime mess that has crippled so many other banks.  Their recent dividend cut will further support their balance sheet, and government programs are adding additional support.  Since my financial exposure is small, I wanted to add this high quality bank to my portfolio - albeit at a measured pace.  My purchase this morning afforded me a 20% move higher in a single session!  I am maintaining this position and will add on weakness, as I believe this stock is very capable of reaching its 50 day moving average standing around $17.50 (25% higher than where shares went out today).  If we see the anticipated revision of mark to market rules along with reinstatement of the uptick rule, I could see WFC recovering to $20 in fairly short order.  I will not chase the strength however, looking for another entry at around $12 where the 20 day moving average is sitting (which the stock was able to break through today).



  • General Electric (GE) - Maintaining Position

    This one was almost as good as Wells Fargo, up nearly 13% on the heels of an impressive rally two days ago.  I mentioned yesterday that I was thinking about swapping out of this one, but the action was too positive to let go just yet.  The intrinsic value of GE's industrial division is $11 to $12 a share, and that's if you value the GE Capital (financial) division at $0!  GE's credit was downgraded today to AA+ from AAA, still maintaining the highest rating relative to most other financials, and the stock exploded higher.  This was probably because people were expecting a harder downgrade, and are finally realizing that though the shorts were trying pretty damn hard to break the company last week, GE is going to be sticking around afterall.  Obviously GE Capital is worth something, and probably quite a bit.  My current target to begin selling my position here is around $11 - $12.



  • Altria (MO) - Sold 75 shares @ $16.30

    Just doing a little house cleaning here.  This position has outsized most of my positions for a long while now, and while I appreciate the dividend income and respect that Altria is focused on strong pricing with majority market share, I believe that the stock will underperform nearterm as people focus on equities that have been beaten down more and appear to offer better upside potential.  Altria will remain one of my largest positions, but I wanted to take something off today and this one seemed to have the most limited upside in the near term.



  • Verizon (VZ) - Sold 75 shares @ $28

    More house cleaning.  I am selling this one at a small loss in my discretionary portfolio, because I am concurrently holding it in my retirement portfolio with a $27 basis.  I don't need to have the stock in both places, and am comfortable with the position in my retirement portfolio.  I still hold the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ), which is a Nasdaq 100 equivalent, which gives me some exposure to VZ as well as APPL, GOOG, and AMZN.



For tomorrow, I am actually hoping that the market won't rally too quickly, instead wishing that it simply maintains its gains and stays flat on the day.  This is important in developing a longer term base, as if we fly too high too fast we are at risk of sharp selloffs down the road as traders make their exists and the shorts pile on.  I want to see how the bulls react to some selling pressure, so it would be nice to see a little consolidation here.  A slow but sustained ramp higher will keep the shorts at bay and help us repair some of the damage that the charts have incurred over the past month.  If we do end up ramping huge tomorrow, I am likely to sell a little bit into the upside even though I maintain that we will approach 800 on the S&P within the next month give or take.

I've been posting quite a lot of third-party commentary in this forum over the past couple of weeks.  Not sure if people are enjoying it or ignoring it, but I read this article focusing on technical analysis today and would like to share it, as it lends further support to the "generational bottom" call that Doug Kass made last week, which I informed members here about last week:
Quote:

Still Bullish, but Not Buying
By Harry Schiller

RealMoney.com Contributor
3/12/2009 3:44 PM EDT

As many of you know, I am a big believer (and trader) of retracements. One of my favorite retracement patterns is one that we are witnessing right now.

This one is pretty easy to spot, and you don't need any complicated measuring devices to see it; in fact, it doesn't even require arithmetic. All you do is look for a selloff below a major low to a new low, and then look for a recovery back up to the prior low. It's that simple. Nothing arcane about it.



The prior November low in the S&P cash was 741.02. The high so far today, as of 2:00 p.m. EDT, has been a couple of points above this level. Now we wait to see if it continues much above this level or stalls here and turns back down. Either way, I am not risking much, as I remain in bullish positions that I added to on the recent decline and am now simply cutting back into this sharp recovery, but I still remain up to 50% long.

A close above the 741 level of the cash points higher, and if it looks like we are headed for a strong close above this level, I likely won't do any additional selling today.



Speaking of retracement patterns, there is a pretty good one shown [above] in the long-term chart of the SPX. This one requires a little arithmetic. It is based on the rally off the 1982 low at the 102 level in the SPX. If you start there and go up to the all-time high in October of 2007, you get 1,474 points. The 0.618 retracement of that advance returns the SPX to 665.23, which is a virtual bull's-eye with last week's lows at 666.79. Close enough for government work.

This suggests that perhaps we have seen the low. I mean THE LOW. Of course, that doesn't preclude some retests of that low, but it's possible that we have put in a bottom and, accordingly, I am maintaining bullish bets.

For now, the trend line off the 1982 lows in the SPX (shown at right), currently at the 700 level, is also providing some support. Breaking below 700 at this point would not be good news for bulls.

As for the bigger picture, I continue to be encouraged by several things, not the least of which has been the relative strength of the Nasdaq, and more recently, the resurgence of the banks and financials. I am still holding positions in these areas.

As noted in last week's column, I also hold positions in the emerging market funds and related ETFs (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) ETF) and options. This sector continues to outperform, up almost 3% today so far. As protection, I am still holding my SPDR Trust (SPY) put spreads with limited risk -- both March and April put spreads -- and buying some today as the market pops.



In the Dow, the next upside objective is the 7200 level, which marked the prior 2002 lows. If it gets through there, then yes, even the Dow should be able to return to its Nov. 21 lows of last year at the 7449 level. But for now, that may be the best case.

Again, there is much to like about the action in the bigger picture. Short term, it's a little dicey, as this important resistance level at 741 in the SPX has now been achieved.



Another problem for the short term is the increasing bullishness and complacency, as evidenced by low put/call ratios and the continued collapse in the VIX, now to the 41 level. Given these considerations, I am turning increasingly cautious in here, though still maintaining bullish positions.

But add to my bullish bets here? Not a chance.





I'm with him on all of that except for the VIX.  While I respect that a lowered VIX does begin to exhibit complacency and may lead to a selloff, I am also mindful that there is frankly a lot less capital trading in the market presently.  Therefore we have a lower base off which to gauge the Volatility Index, and that could indicate that a low reading is not as significant as it has been earlier on during the recession (though still a factor worthy of taking into consideration).  The only reason I did do some buying today in WFC was because my financial exposure was too limited and the financials have the best upside at this very moment.  Note that even though I did buy a chunk of WFC, I sold shares in two other positions, bringing my cash position higher than it has been over the past couple of weeks.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/12/2009:
  • 17.6% Cash
  • 10.1% Altria (MO)
  • 9.5% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.9% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 5.9% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.4% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.4% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.3% Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
  • 4.1% General Electric (GE)
  • 3.9% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.8% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.8% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.7% Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ)
  • 3.6% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 3.4% Ultra S&P500 Proshares (SSO)
  • 3.4% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.3% PepsiCo (PEP)
  • 2.1% Wells Fargo (WFC)


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: geokills]
    #9960669 - 03/12/09 07:38 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

VIX VIX VIX.

I hear about the VIX all day long.  I listen to Chicago AM radio all day at work, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange has like, every other commercial on the station.  And they crow incessantly about the stupid VIX and how smart they are for thinking of it and all of this nonsense.

You are the first real person I've heard talk about it.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9960904 - 03/12/09 08:14 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Okay, and a question.

Do you know anything about the stock of Warren Buffet's company, Berkshire Hathaway?

Why is it listed as trading at 85,700.00.  Is that really the stock price?  And I see that volume is incredibly low, like, 2,000 shares.  Are there just not many shares in existence?  Would this be the reason for the ridiculous price?

Can that possibly be correct?

Please explain this anomaly to me.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9961015 - 03/12/09 08:33 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Yes Berkshire has both brk.a and brk.b shares and they are "worth" that much because he does not split his stock to create more shares and does not dilute them in other ways to significantly impact the price.

That is also another reason why the volume is so low, you need $$$$ to buy these shares.

More volatility is better if you are playing options.  Also better overall.  You're goal is to have stocks move in the direction of your position.  No volatility no money to be made.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Liquidkick]
    #9963988 - 03/13/09 10:10 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

So what does Mr. Buffett gain from not splitting or diluting his stock.  I mean, what's his reasoning behind it?  Are there other companies that don't do those things as well?

It just seems strange to see such a big number there...


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9964103 - 03/13/09 10:41 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
So what does Mr. Buffett gain from not splitting or diluting his stock.  I mean, what's his reasoning behind it?  Are there other companies that don't do those things as well?

It just seems strange to see such a big number there...




Prestige, elitism, you name it


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OfflineTerillius
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Ferris]
    #9967123 - 03/13/09 09:29 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)



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OfflineTerillius
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Ferris]
    #9967134 - 03/13/09 09:31 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
So what does Mr. Buffett gain from not splitting or diluting his stock.  I mean, what's his reasoning behind it?  Are there other companies that don't do those things as well?

It just seems strange to see such a big number there...




Prestige, elitism, you name it




You're damn right.  It's ego, arrogance, and evil.  They are PLAYING with money that could support MILLIONS of STARVING people.  How could you live with that?


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Offlinephi1618
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9967315 - 03/13/09 10:06 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
So what does Mr. Buffett gain from not splitting or diluting his stock.  I mean, what's his reasoning behind it?  Are there other companies that don't do those things as well?

It just seems strange to see such a big number there...





from the horse's mouth...
in 1983 (bold added, italics in original):
Quote:

We often are asked why Berkshire does not split its stock. The assumption behind this question usually appears to be that a split would be a pro-shareholder action. We disagree. Let me tell you why.
One of our goals is to have Berkshire Hathaway stock sell at a price rationally related to its intrinsic business value... The key to a rational stock price is rational shareholders, both current and prospective.
If the holders of a company's stock and/or the prospective buyers attracted to it are prone to make irrational or emotion-based dicisions, some pretty silly stock prices are going to appear periodically...
To obtain only high quality shareholders is no cinch...
In large part, however, we feel that high quality ownership can be attracted and maintained if we consistently communicate our business and ownership philosophy - along with no other conflicting messages- and then let self selection follow its course...
Through our policies and communications - our "advertisements" - we try to attract investors who will understand our operations, attitudes, and expectations. (And, fully as important, we try to dissuade those who won't.) We want those who think of themselves as business ownders and invest in companies with the intention of staying a long time. And, we want those who keep their eyes focused on business results, not market prices.
Investors possessing those characteristics are in a small minority, but we have an exceptional collection of them. I believe well over 90%- probably over 95% - of our shares are held by those who were shareholders of Berkshire or Blue Chip five years ago. And I would guess that over 95% of our shares are held by investors for whom the holding is at least double the size of their next largest... Upgrading a shareholder group that possesses these characteristics is not easy.
Were we to split the stock or take other actions focusing on stock price rather than business value, we would attract an entering class of buyers inferior to the exiting class of sellers. At $1300, there are very few investors who can't afford a Berkshire share. Would a potential one-share purchaser be better off if we split 100 for 1 so he could buy 100 shares? Those who think so and who would buy the stock because of the split or in anticipation of one would definitely downgrade the quality of our present shareholder group...
We will try to avoid policies that attract buyers with a shorter term focus on our stock price and try to allow policies that attract informed long-term investors focusing on business values. Just as you purchased your Berkshire shares in a market populated by rational informed investors, you deserve a chase to sell - should you ever want to - in the same kind of market. We will work to keep it in existence.





in 1995:
Quote:

At the Annual Meeting you will be asked to approve a recapitalization of Berkshire, creating two classes of stock. If the plan is adopted, our existing common stock will be designated as Class A Common Stock and a new Class B Common Stock will be authorized....
The market will ultimately determine the price of the Be shares. Their price, though, should be in the neighborhood of 1/30th of the price of the A shares...
There are tradeoffs for Berkshire in this recapitalization. But they do not arise from the proceeds of the offering - we will find constructive uses for the money - nor in any degree from the price at which we will sell the B shares. As I write this - with Berkshire stock at $36,000 - Charlie and I do not believe it undervalued.... Berkshire is selling at a price at which Charlie and I would not consider buying it.
What Berkshire will incur by way of the B stock are certain added costs, including those involving the mechanics of handling a larger number of shareholders. On the other hand, the stock should be a convenience for people wishing to make gifts...
We are making this move, though, for other reasons - having to do with the appearance of expense-laden unit trusts purporting to be low-priced "clones" of Berkshire and sure to be aggressively marketed...
I did not discourage these people because I prefer large investors over small. Were it possible, Charlie and I would love to turn $1,000 into $3,000 for multitudes of people who would find that gain an important answer to their immediate problems.
In order to quickly triple small stakes, however, we would have to just as quickly turn our present market capitalization of $43 billion into $129 billion... We can't come close to doing that....
In the end, Charlie and I do not care whether our shareholders own Berkshire in large or small amounts. What we wish for are shareholders of any size who are knowledgeable about our operations, share our objectives and long-term perspective, and are aware of our limitations, most particularly those imposed by our large capital base.
The unit trusts that have recently surfaced fly in the face of these goals. They would be sold by brokers working for big commissions, would impose other burdensome costs on their shareholders, and would be marketed en masse to unsophisticated buyers, apt to be seduced by our past record and beguiled by the publicity Berkshire and I have received in recent years. The sure outcome: a multitude of investors destined to be disappopinted.
Through our creation of the B stock... we hope to make the clones unmerchandisable.
But both present and prospective Berkshire shareholders should pay special attention to one point: Though the per-share intrinsic value of our stock has grown at an excellent rate during the past five years, its market price has grown still faster. The stock, in other words, has outperformed the business.
That kind of market overperformance cannot persist indefinitely, neither for Berkshire nor any other stock. Inevitably, there will be periods of underperformance as well. The price volatility that results, though endemic to public markets, is not to our liking. What we would prefer instead is to have the market price of Berkshire precisely track its intrinsic value. Were the stock to do that, every shareholder would benefit during his period of ownership in exact proportion to the progress of Berkshire itself made in the period. Obviously, the market behavior of Berkshire's stock will never conform to this ideal. But we will come closer to this goal than we would otherwise if our present and prospective shareholders are informed, business-oriented and not exposed to high-commission salesmanship when making their investment decisions. To that end, we are better off if we can blunt the merchandising efforts of the unit trust - and that is the reason we are creating the B stock.





1996:
Quote:

I think it would have been quite easy for such trusts to have sold many billions of dollars worth of units, and I also believe that early marketing successes by these trusts would have led to the formation of others... The trusts would have meanwhile indiscriminately poured the proceeds of their offerings into a supply of Berkshire shares that is fixed and limited. The likely result: a speculative bubble in our stock. For at least a time, the price jump would have been self-validating, in that it would have pulled new waves of naive and impressionable investors into the trusts and set off still more buying of Berkshire shares.






In many of his essays, Buffet makes the point that the total returns to all stock holders must in the long run revert to the returns of the underlying business. All trading activity reduces the total size of the earnings pie available to shareholders (business owners). It is his goal to attract shareholders interested in the underlying business, and to maximize their long-run returns by minimizing the frictional costs of trading.


Edited by phi1618 (03/13/09 10:15 PM)


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Offlinephi1618
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Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 8 months
Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: phi1618]
    #9967406 - 03/13/09 10:20 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Here is Buffett on trading, 2005:
Quote:

How to Minimize Investment Returns
It’s been an easy matter for Berkshire and other owners of American equities to prosper over the
years. Between December 31, 1899 and December 31, 1999, to give a really long-term example, the Dow
rose from 66 to 11,497. (Guess what annual growth rate is required to produce this result; the surprising
answer is at the end of this section.) This huge rise came about for a simple reason: Over the century
American businesses did extraordinarily well and investors rode the wave of their prosperity. Businesses
continue to do well. But now shareholders, through a series of self-inflicted wounds, are in a major way
cutting the returns they will realize from their investments.
The explanation of how this is happening begins with a fundamental truth: With unimportant
exceptions, such as bankruptcies in which some of a company’s losses are borne by creditors, the most that
owners in aggregate can earn between now and Judgment Day is what their businesses in aggregate earn.
True, by buying and selling that is clever or lucky, investor A may take more than his share of the pie at the
expense of investor B. And, yes, all investors feel richer when stocks soar. But an owner can exit only by
having someone take his place. If one investor sells high, another must buy high. For owners as a whole,
there is simply no magic – no shower of money from outer space – that will enable them to extract wealth
from their companies beyond that created by the companies themselves.
Indeed, owners must earn less than their businesses earn because of “frictional” costs. And that’s
my point: These costs are now being incurred in amounts that will cause shareholders to earn far less than
they historically have.
To understand how this toll has ballooned, imagine for a moment that all American corporations
are, and always will be, owned by a single family. We’ll call them the Gotrocks. After paying taxes on
dividends, this family – generation after generation – becomes richer by the aggregate amount earned by its
companies. Today that amount is about $700 billion annually. Naturally, the family spends some of these
dollars. But the portion it saves steadily compounds for its benefit. In the Gotrocks household everyone
grows wealthier at the same pace, and all is harmonious.
But let’s now assume that a few fast-talking Helpers approach the family and persuade each of its
members to try to outsmart his relatives by buying certain of their holdings and selling them certain others.
The Helpers – for a fee, of course – obligingly agree to handle these transactions. The Gotrocks still own
all of corporate America; the trades just rearrange who owns what. So the family’s annual gain in wealth
diminishes, equaling the earnings of American business minus commissions paid. The more that family
members trade, the smaller their share of the pie and the larger the slice received by the Helpers. This fact
is not lost upon these broker-Helpers: Activity is their friend and, in a wide variety of ways, they urge it on.
After a while, most of the family members realize that they are not doing so well at this new “beatmy-
brother” game. Enter another set of Helpers. These newcomers explain to each member of the
Gotrocks clan that by himself he’ll never outsmart the rest of the family. The suggested cure: “Hire a
manager – yes, us – and get the job done professionally.” These manager-Helpers continue to use the
broker-Helpers to execute trades; the managers may even increase their activity so as to permit the brokers
to prosper still more. Overall, a bigger slice of the pie now goes to the two classes of Helpers.
The family’s disappointment grows. Each of its members is now employing professionals. Yet
overall, the group’s finances have taken a turn for the worse. The solution? More help, of course.
It arrives in the form of financial planners and institutional consultants, who weigh in to advise the
Gotrocks on selecting manager-Helpers. The befuddled family welcomes this assistance. By now its
members know they can pick neither the right stocks nor the right stock-pickers. Why, one might ask,
should they expect success in picking the right consultant? But this question does not occur to the
Gotrocks, and the consultant-Helpers certainly don’t suggest it to them.
18
The Gotrocks, now supporting three classes of expensive Helpers, find that their results get worse,
and they sink into despair. But just as hope seems lost, a fourth group – we’ll call them the hyper-Helpers
– appears. These friendly folk explain to the Gotrocks that their unsatisfactory results are occurring
because the existing Helpers – brokers, managers, consultants – are not sufficiently motivated and are
simply going through the motions. “What,” the new Helpers ask, “can you expect from such a bunch of
zombies?”
The new arrivals offer a breathtakingly simple solution: Pay more money. Brimming with selfconfidence,
the hyper-Helpers assert that huge contingent payments – in addition to stiff fixed fees – are
what each family member must fork over in order to really outmaneuver his relatives.
The more observant members of the family see that some of the hyper-Helpers are really just
manager-Helpers wearing new uniforms, bearing sewn-on sexy names like HEDGE FUND or PRIVATE
EQUITY. The new Helpers, however, assure the Gotrocks that this change of clothing is all-important,
bestowing on its wearers magical powers similar to those acquired by mild-mannered Clark Kent when he
changed into his Superman costume. Calmed by this explanation, the family decides to pay up.
And that’s where we are today: A record portion of the earnings that would go in their entirety to
owners – if they all just stayed in their rocking chairs – is now going to a swelling army of Helpers.
Particularly expensive is the recent pandemic of profit arrangements under which Helpers receive large
portions of the winnings when they are smart or lucky, and leave family members with all of the losses –
and large fixed fees to boot – when the Helpers are dumb or unlucky (or occasionally crooked).
A sufficient number of arrangements like this – heads, the Helper takes much of the winnings;
tails, the Gotrocks lose and pay dearly for the privilege of doing so – may make it more accurate to call the
family the Hadrocks. Today, in fact, the family’s frictional costs of all sorts may well amount to 20% of
the earnings of American business. In other words, the burden of paying Helpers may cause American
equity investors, overall, to earn only 80% or so of what they would earn if they just sat still and listened to
no one.
Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir
Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, “I can
calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.” If he had not been traumatized by this
loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole,
returns decrease as motion increases.





That said, I trade actively.


Edited by phi1618 (03/13/09 10:22 PM)


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9981018 - 03/16/09 10:25 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Google does not split.  They are taking a page from Buffet.


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InvisibleChespirito
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2009 - WFC, GE, MO, VZ [Re: Liquidkick]
    #9981855 - 03/16/09 01:38 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Well AIG is making me happy.  I got in on this around its lowest point for a decent amount of cash, and now it is up rather substantially.  I am just trying to figure out when to sell now.  Anyone else bet on this stock, and if so when are you planning on selling?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 16, 2009 - No Action [Re: geokills]
    #9982098 - 03/16/09 02:17 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Sitting on my hand for today.  The market is digesting some of its recent run, though up for most of the day it is now ending down a mark.  This is constructive, as the resolve of the Bulls must be tested in efforts to confirm a lasting base for the market.  Just as important as going higher, is how market participants react when some of the steam is blown off.  Will they come back in to support the market by making new purchases on weakness?  Or will they panic out on a quick flip and sell?  The key level to watch here on the S&P 500 will be in the 740's (741 especially).


       


I have seen incredible gains in my portfolio over the past five days, as evidenced in the above graphs.  While I perhaps should have cut my recently initiated Wells Fargo (WFC) position in half when the shares topped $15 today (closing below $14), it is such a small hand and my financial exposure is so minimal that I am going to hold on for now.  No question that several stocks (particularly the financials) are starting to over-extend themselves.  But the shorts have their work cut out for them as we are getting more positive comments out of government; from Ben Bernanke's positives on 60 minutes last night, to pro-business commentary out of Obama this morning and more details of the bank plans from Treasury Secretary Geithner as well.  If this continues, we could see the banks maintain their ramp.  If it doesn't, my positions are small enough that I don't mind surfing the waves in the meanwhile.  It should be noted that the late-day pullback today was on fairly light volume.

Since I don't have anything else to report with respect to my own positioning, I would like to share with you this article posted earlier today by Doug Kass, the same guy who I have been posting about for a while now, and whom made the call two weeks ago that we would be likely to see a 2009 market bottom within the following week.  So far, he has been right on target and given his history and level of expertise, I think it is important that we listen to what he has to say.

Though this piece is very bullish, I am not in a rush to buy anything right now.  The market has run by a large margin over the past week, and while I am still counting on the S&P to reach 800 in the near term, I am mindful that we will have down days throughout the process and am in fact looking to lighten up on various positions here soon.  For those who are underinvested (or not invested at all), I would advocate using these down days to start slowly building some positions.

Quote:

It Ain't Heavy, It's a Bottom
By Doug Kass, posted on The Edge @ RealMoney Silver

3/16/2009 8:28 AM EDT

QuickTake
Bullish SPY GE
  • A deep oversold, worsening sentiment and positive internal divergences spell a continued market recovery.
  • If 1937-1939 provides a template for 2008-2009, stocks have likely made a 2009 low and possibly a generational low.
  • My most optimistic scenario is that the SPDRs could fill the October 2008 gap of $107 by late summer 2009.


    The road is long
    With many a winding turn
    That leads us to who knows where
    Who knows where...
    If I'm laden at all
    I'm laden with sadness
    That everyone's heart
    Isn't filled with the gladness.


    -- The Hollies, "He Ain't Heavy, He's My Brother"

It ain't heavy, it's a bottom.

Today's opener is ambitious and some might think reckless in its objective of introducing an optimistic market forecast and the logic behind my S&P 500 -- and SPDRs (SPY) -- price targets.

My view of a meaningful upside stock market trajectory in the months ahead is clearly a variant view, but I am familiar with that terrain as I have consistently expressed a negative (if not dire) baseline assumption for credit, the world's economies and stock markets for much of the past three years.

To add to my relatively bold and audacious expectations and presentation, I will attempt to be precision-like in exhibiting a chart that most closely represents that promising market outlook over the next several months.

Bottoms Up, Mr. Market

Nearly two weeks ago, I suggested that a 2009 market bottom had been put in, and last week I surmised that, in the fullness of time, a generational market low might have been put in for the U.S. stock market.

At inflection points gauging the market's technical bearings is often useful as is a history lesson, so let's travel that route.

The Foundation to a Stock Market Recovery

A deep oversold, worsening sentiment and positive internal divergences almost always provide the foundation to stock market recovery.

The move from the October lows to the March lows indicated growing fear and gave way to rising cash positions and the loss of hope, but the market's internals were improving. November's DJIA low of 7,552 was nearly 11% below the October low of 8,451 and the March low of 6,547 was 22.5% under October's low. While each new low was more frightening than the prior one, however, there were improving technical and sentiment signals -- for example NYSE volume at the October low expanded to 2.85 billion shares; at the November low, volume dropped to 2.23 billion shares; and at the March low, volume was only 1.56 billion shares. As well, new lows traced decreasing levels: At the October low, there were 2,900 new lows; at the November low, there were 1,515 lows; and at the March low, there were only 855 new lows on the NYSE.

From a sentiment standpoint, the March low marked an unprecedented number of bears, according to the AAII Survey. (I have recently addressed one of the only debatable sentiment indicators -- namely, a stubbornly low put/call ratio -- as increasingly inconsequential, owing to record low net long positions for hedge funds and more limited individual investor exposure, which negates the need for put protection.)

Last week (and right on cue!), we witnessed conspicuous breakouts and strengthening momentum off of Monday's bottom. The combination of Tuesday's 12:1 ratio of advancing stocks over declining stocks coupled with that day's 27:1 up-to-down volume ratio has not occurred in almost 65 years. The 9% three-day rally and rising volume on two 90% up days was very encouraging. I was also inspired by the improving conditions of my watch list, particularly the strength of financial stocks and the ability of many stocks (e.g. General Electric (GE)) to advance in the face of bad news. (In the case of GE, there was a Fitch downgrade late in the week.)

Most strong rallies don't let investors back in easily and get overbought quickly. I expect the current one to be sharp initially and to continue without much of a retest over the next week, creating a short-term overbought by month's end.

So, how now, Dow Jones?

The 2008-2009 Stock Market Most Represents 1937-1939

"History doesn't repeat itself; at best, it sometimes rhymes."

-- Mark Twain


As a template, I expect the 2008-2009 stock market price pattern to most resemble the 1937-1939 period. The technical parallel mirrors a similar fundamental backdrop.
Let's first examine 1937-1939 S&P chart.

Dow in the 1930s & '40s vs. Nasdaq Now
Very similar patterns



The 1937-1938 period holds a number of similarities to the current period:
  • 1. The stock market decline followed a four- to five-year rally, after a three-year decline of greater than 80%, which is similar to the Nasdaq experience.

  • 2. Worldwide industrial production collapsed in 1937.

  • 3. Commodities crashed in 1937.

  • 4. The markets spent five years consolidating the declines.

  • 5. Massive government spending pulled the U.S. out of The Great Depression. (Back then, it was preparing for WWII; this time, it will be government stimulus/infrastructure.)

The 50% drop over a five month period in 1937-1938 holds a similarity to the market's recent drop in that neither had a high-volume selling climax. The market's 1938-1939 recovery, perhaps like 2009's, had four legs and lasted about seven months.

Leg one of the 1938-1939 rally was brief and intense; it lasted only about 12 trading days, and the indices rose by 19%. Leg two was an approximate 60-day consolidation that corrected half of the initial gain. Leg three was about a six-week rise of 30%. Leg four consisted of another two-month consolidation and retracement followed by a 22% six-week rally, serving to mark a multiyear high in the averages.

I expect a similar pattern (as in the late 1930s) to be traced ahead in 2009.

An Audacious Forecast

In the months ahead, the fear of being in will be replaced by the fear of being out.

Here is a chart of my expectation for the SPDRs in the months ahead.

SPDR Trust (SPY) -- Expectations



A poorly positioned hedge fund community, with an historically low net long exposure and rankled by negative investment returns and the fear of continued redemptions, should provide the initial thrust to the S&P's 50-day moving average of about 810. It is important to recognize that, historically, strong rallies that have durability (like in 1937-1938) but, as previously written, typically don't let investors in during the first advancing leg. With such a clear burst of momentum, the fear of being out could drive the S&P 500 as much as 15 to 40 points above the 50-day moving average, paralleling the 20% third-quarter 1938 move and producing a short-term top and a temporarily overbought market.

The spring should be characterized by a backing and filling as the sharp gains are digested, similar to the the September-October 1938 interval. Sloppy second-quarter warnings will weigh on the market during the April-May period, but the markets could move sideways, bending but not breaking. Signs of market skepticism, sequential economic growth and evidence of a bottoming in the residential real estate and automobile markets (after a sustained period of under-production) could contain the market's downside, providing a range-bound market with a firm bid on dips. As well, the results from the bank stress tests and the release of a more coherent and detailed bank rescue package could provide further support to equities.

By June, economic traction should begin to take hold from the accumulated fiscal and monetary stimulation coupled with the large drop in energy prices. While it will be too early to demonstrate a broad economic recovery, evidence of stabilization will be clearly manifested in improving retail sales, and stocks will take off for their final advancing phase. With fixed income under increasing pressure, large asset allocation programs at some of the largest and late-to-the party pension plans (out of bonds and into stocks) could trigger an explosive rally in the middle to late summer. This move by July or August could close the October 2008 gap in the SPDRs at around $107.

Position: Long SPY and GE stock; short SPY puts




Discretionary portfolio as of 3/16/2009:
  • 17.4% Cash
  • 10.4% Altria (MO)
  • 9.3% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.9% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.1% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.6% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.5% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.2% Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
  • 4.1% General Electric (GE)
  • 3.9% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.7% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.6% Powershares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.5% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 3.4% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.4% Ultra S&P500 Proshares (SSO)
  • 3.3% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 2.1% Wells Fargo (WFC)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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