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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
#28198604 - 02/22/23 03:40 AM (10 months, 30 days ago) |
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Thanks, I was looking into it a bit yesterday
I guess a .03 theta basically works like 3 cents per share per day is being burned was what I gathered
I know delta deals with how much you make on the change in price
Is a leap a specific type of call of is a leap just a fall out call with a longer expiration ?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28198732 - 02/22/23 07:47 AM (10 months, 30 days ago) |
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Longer expiration options are going to be less subject to volatility risk, but because you are paying more for the time value, they are subject to a greater aggregate monetary risk (if you don't manage the trade well). My trade style generally has me splitting the difference and looking at options that expire 1-3 months out. But I will short term (i.e. weekly) expirations if it's only for a day trade and my entry allows for razor thin risk. I will likewise occasionally buy longer dated calls for long term exposure, but I keep these positions smaller size and they function more as a placeholder/tracker than an active trade.
LEAPS are basically long dated options, often having a year or more until expiration. There is a more esoteric definition, but for practical purposes, they are simply long dated options.
I just sold some weekly $42.50 calls for $1 against half of my SHOP common. The position is just a bit larger than I would like, and so I wanted to either soften some of the unrealized loss (or get it called away Friday at a net sale price near last Friday's close). Because we are at its trendline, 50 day MA and lower bollinger, I also have asks out to sell additional calls if SHOP can make it up to test its 8 day EMA. I want to give this some room, but not a whole lot.
The market yesterday changed character from a "this looks like we could be setting up for the next leg up" to a "let's use rallies to lighten up" type of profile. We're not dead in the water, but appetite for risk was slapped down quite a bit yesterday.
SGML working above yesterday's huge volume breakout, walking along its upper bollinger band. No position, but it looks like a power move. MDC, a high dividend yielder, came back to a nice spot for accumulation, although I already have enough of it.
Edit: SHOP looking pretty gross, I'm just going to sell the other half of my common now and take the loss, as we've already round-tripped the morning move.
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Edited by geokills (02/22/23 07:57 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28202054 - 02/24/23 07:37 AM (10 months, 28 days ago) |
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Market has more work to do. The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased more than expected (with regard to both pricing and spending) in this morning's report, and because this metric therefore indicates an acceleration in inflation since the beginning of the year, it is likely to cause the Fed to lean into continued rate hikes.
As always, we'll have to see how the market reacts, but it looks like we have more work to do before things get easier again with regard to trading... and my general feeling right now is that so long as we remain under 400 on the SPY, you want to be exceptionally careful.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28202528 - 02/24/23 01:04 PM (10 months, 28 days ago) |
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We are seeing a little end of day push back up toward $400 on SPY (at new intraday highs as of this writing)... I'm not sure we'll make it quite to $400, but I like that MSFT is almost back to its 50 day moving average, so I am legging back into some exposure on MSFT, small size, via April $250 calls. A move below $248.16 will stop me out, so the thesis here is that, near term, MSFT is going to bounce off of today's lows. If we break that level and I am stopped out, I will look for a bounce above $240 to re-enter, and would double down on a move above $257.
Shippers are doing great... EGLE & ZIM leading the pack. I didn't get back into ZIM on the tag of its 20 day, and I'm not about to chase it now, but I sure do wish I were holding it.
RH is also bouncing nicely off its 50 day... not to say you couldn't take it for a trade (you can trade anything if you know what you're doing), but I'm a little weary of RH as a core position, now that Home Depot and Walmart have reported negatively/guided down. If a general retailer like HD is having trouble, and especially if a low end retailed like Walmart is having trouble, it's a tall order to expect a premium retailer like RH to report positively.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28202608 - 02/24/23 01:52 PM (10 months, 28 days ago) |
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Stopped out of MSFT 9 minutes to close. As noted, caution warranted.
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Hartford
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28207964 - 02/28/23 10:29 AM (10 months, 24 days ago) |
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What do you guys think of the new psilocybin stock, LSDI?
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Gorlax



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28208033 - 02/28/23 11:29 AM (10 months, 24 days ago) |
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When will the chop END~! It's so hard to make money in this environment
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28209093 - 03/01/23 07:16 AM (10 months, 23 days ago) |
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LSDI is way below it's opening IPO high of $4, and also being held down by its 8 day EMA. On a technical basis (simply based on the way its trading) I would not touch it. Volume is also very thin. I set an alert @ $3.61 (the first lower daily high) just to get my attention drawn back if and when it becomes more interesting.
I agree with Gorlax, market is very difficult right now, best to sit on hands.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28211023 - 03/02/23 12:46 PM (10 months, 22 days ago) |
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Market seems to have short term stabilized. As I noted above a week or so ago...
Quote:
geokills said: ~3950 marks the current trendline off of last years lows
We are more or less seeing a bounce off of that level today, with a nice little pop in the last hour on the heels of one of the Fed heads "firmly" advocating to stick to quarter-point rate hikes (recent inflationary data has been worrying the market that the Fed may become more aggressive with larger and/or more sustained hikes).
I'm legging back into some positions, although keeping it small and with DEFINITE stops below this morning's low prints on every issue.
- MSFT Apr $250 calls, stop at $245.60
- NVDA Apr $230 calls, stop at $224.30
- SSO common, stop at $46.10
Built up a fairly sizable position in BOTZ (an AI oriented ETF) during the pullback last week, also still holding a very small residual SHOP placeholder position on the books, but it really shouldn't be there. It's just small enough (two out of the money calls, one April one June) that I don't mind letting it ride as a lotto ticket sort of play.
So long as we're below 4000 on the S&P, things will be a bit sporty, but the bounce today is encouraging, and I like to get starter positions on quickly if/when I see the opportunity, as there are clear stop loss levels in play, and I can build up the position incrementally IF it begins to move in my favor.
Side note: AEHR took a hell of a ride, from closing above $36 yesterday and hitting a low of $23.50 today, it's more or less back in its sideways range at $32 as of this writing. Sure wish I would've seen that this morning, but I missed it. Seemed to be a knee jerk reaction to news from TSLA that they can use 75% less silicon carbide in production, but AEHR was quick to come out and reiterate positive guidance even after the news.
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gopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28211035 - 03/02/23 12:57 PM (10 months, 22 days ago) |
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I got six bucks in my wealth simple account, I think its all from dividends😄😁
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28212467 - 03/03/23 12:32 PM (10 months, 21 days ago) |
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Even those small moves I put on yesterday are paying off handsomely today. Hence why it's so important to plan your trade, and trade your plan. I was looking for support around S&P 3950 to create a bounce, and I was lucky enough to be at my desk to see it happen, and pounce. This has reaped a better than 5% aggregate portfolio gain today on account of it. Having a ton of BOTZ up over 3% today helped, as well as SSO (a leveraged SPY ETF) up 3%, and my MSFT and NVDA calls, which are up 25% and 11% respectively are all contributing. Even my SHOP lotto tickets are up 40% (although such a small position that they're not really moving the needle in aggregate).
AI working to drive the charge in BOTZ today, they reported earnings and are up a whopping 33%, but still just under the all time high. II wasn't at my desk this morning, so I wasn't able to put on a position, although I will watch for a move above $31 on Monday for a quick momentum trade into all time high territory.
Overall, very nice bounce at the expected level. Doesn't always work so well, which is why STOPS are so necessary as a function of appropriate risk management, but when it does work, it sure does pay to play.
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Baby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28212495 - 03/03/23 12:49 PM (10 months, 21 days ago) |
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AI up over 30% after a positive earnings report.
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#28212511 - 03/03/23 12:58 PM (10 months, 21 days ago) |
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Noted above. I don't typically hold over earnings, especially on a hot stock like AI that had already had a 300% run on the year... but I would've been happy to take it for a momentum trade intraday, had I been at my screens this morning. By the time I saw it, it had moved too much, hence why I'll wait to see if it can print an all time high Monday (above $30.92), and then ride the momentum into blue sky territory.
Some lucky sap bought almost 400 weekly expiration $25 calls on AI yesterday. They made a flippin' killing, but that was a lotto ticket to be sure, and not at all sound risk management (unless - and this was probably the case - the trader is so well capitalized that 400 call options was an insignificant dollar commitment for them as a % of total assets).
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28212522 - 03/03/23 01:08 PM (10 months, 21 days ago) |
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Picked up a couple of SMG Apr $85 calls today. Stock is squeezing above its 200 day and looks like it wants to walk itself higher. Volume is a bit anemic though, can't expect too much out of this one, but not likely to crater either. Stop below yesterday's low if you want to play it loose, or today's low of $83.50 if you want to keep it tight. Since I'm using options, I'm keeping the stop at $83.50, if I had bought common, I would have kept it below yesterday's @ $80.20.
Tempted to add to NVDA, but I don't want to overexpose myself over the weekend.
TSLA in a pretty nice squeeze just under its 200 day, alert at > $210.
Sold my SSO @ $48.90, to lock in the gain. Two big up days to finish the week, don't want to overstay my welcome.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28212545 - 03/03/23 01:39 PM (10 months, 21 days ago) |
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Last order of business, as AI is racing toward that ATH, is hanging out a bid for Apr $30 calls @ $2.85. They surely won't trigger today, but might get hit during the opening rotation on Monday. These calls are really flippin' expensive right now, but putting some measured risk on for an expected move above $32.50 in the next 49 days seems like a reasonable option given the huge volume move on this issue today, and the hotness of the sector in which it resides.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28216932 - 03/06/23 07:39 AM (10 months, 18 days ago) |
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I think we're going to get some nice setups here, but we had two big up days Thurs + Friday... it'll take a lot of buying power to keep up that sort of momentum. Always ask yourself, "who's behind me?"... as in, if I jump in now, who is left to jump in after me? MSFT, AAPL and SMG pushing higher so far this morning. NVDA and BOTZ are resting. I'll be heading up to Mt Baldy to do some skiing in just an hour, so I'm raising my stops and looking for the market to rest a bit here in order to create a better base for a continued move higher.
Those bids I left hanging on AI just filled, as it's pulled back 5% from Friday's monster close on the heels of positive earnings, and hugging its upper bollinger band. Might need to retrace a little more, but this is a hot issue, and I think some exposure is warranted. Small size for now, but with the way this thing moves, a small position can still move the needle.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28219011 - 03/07/23 01:31 PM (10 months, 17 days ago) |
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As expected, the market didn't have a lot of umph to continue pushing price higher after the big moves last Thurs + Fri. I got stopped out of my MSFT for a profit, stopped out of NVDA for a wash first (and a small loss as I tried to re-enter this morning), stopped out of SMG for a bit of a haircut as well.
A few notes...
- AI is retracing its earnings breakout, I'm looking for a bounce around its 8 day EMA, currently $24.77 or about 5-6% below the current price. I have been slowly building a small cheater position to track.
- BOTZ is at its 8 dEMA + 20 DMA. Not a great place to buy, but I was building a position on its recent trip down to its 200 dEMA. Alert above $25 for a potential add, or on a revisit to trendline + 200 dEMA around $23.
- NVDA clipped me twice, once yesterday and again today, stopped out for a negligible loss, but its hanging fairly tight above its 8 dEMA. Alert at $242.50. Pretty extended above its 50 DMA, but the MA's are stacked in agreement. Patient for now, if the market deteriorates, might be able to catch a bounce above $200 @ the 50 DMA, but it's lookin' a little too strong for that to be a high probability move.
- ZIM bouncing at a favorable spot, but earnings are just around the corner before market 3/13. Kinda hard for me to buy here as there is now resistance overhead and earnings right in front of us.
Fed speak today kinda pulled the rug out from under the market, with Powell forecasting more rate hikes than anticipated. Odds of a 0.50% raise at the next meeting have increased markedly. Anything other than steady or decelerating rate hike posturing will negatively affect risk assets, and so here we are. Tread lightly, keep positions small until clear support is formed, then build up appropriately by watching for key levels as indicated in the above assessments.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28222230 - 03/09/23 01:17 PM (10 months, 15 days ago) |
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Getting a proper meltdown today, across all major indices and sectors. Don't step in front of this freight train. There will come a time to buy, this isn't it.
But do keep an eye on the issues that are holding up relatively well amidst the carnage, as those will likely be the ones you want to jump into when the tide turns. NVDA more or less tops my list. AAPL is lookin' pretty good. MSFT, AEHR, SGML, BOTZ are all hanging in there.
Just be patient, this environment does not favor most styles of active/swing trading.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28223397 - 03/10/23 07:47 AM (10 months, 14 days ago) |
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Got some pretty serious issues on the banks here. Market continuing to accelerate to the downside at the open today. Frankly, the only thing on my screen that's working well is UVXY... and that's never a good thing. Wanted to share this missive from Dan Fitzpatrick @ StockMarketMentor.com, as he covers the bases in an informative and entertaining way.
Quote:
Remembering Hemingway One of the man great novels written Ernest Hemingway was "The Sun Also Rises." In it, Bill asks Mike:
"How did you go bankrupt?"
"Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually, and then suddenly."
Bill: "What brought it on?"
"Friends," said Mike. "I had a lot of friends. False friends. Then I had creditors, too. Probably had more creditors than anybody in England."
-------------------------------------
Yesterday was a bloodbath for banks. You see, money has been free for so long (ah, the Bernanke put with no expiration date) that free money became the best friend of crappy businesses that would never get off the ground in a rational environment wherein loans required proof of the ability to be repaid. That went out the window with zero interest rates, where the ability to repay was replaced by the ability to refinance.
Life was good.
But when the Fed was forced to start hiking interest rates in an effort to tamp down inflation (the inevitable result of free money printing), your best friend became fickle. The "free money friend" that enabled you to do stupid stuff suddenly became your worst enemy. How? It aligned itself with the creditor -- the bank that loaned you the money. And now, you are suddenly being required to pay the loan back. The only way you can do so is to refinance. And dammit! That doesn't work because you've now got to (1) prove that you have the ability to pay it back (which you don't), and (2) pay interest on the loan that are multiples of the super low rate of your now-expiring loan.
And therein lies the rub. The Fed has finally broken the back of the free money market. But in so doing, it is forcing the banks (Mike's creditors) to write down many of their loans. And with the write-downs come the reduction in banking reserves that are required for banks to continue their operations. In order to get back in compliance with diminishing asset values, banks have to start liquidating...and also tighten their lending standards.
Basically, the free lunch is over. If you want to eat, you'll need to pay top dollar for a soggy BLT.
So, this is the conundrum that banks are in. Prior to yesterday, the "gradually" theme prevailed. One by one, loans started going into default. You saw the used car lending industry start failing as auto loan payments were missed. Home refi's weren't going so well. Credit card debt kept rising as more debtors started missing payments. And, in order to prop up their value, these creditors were keeping their cards held close to the vest. They weren't accurately reporting their situation. They were extending grace periods and engaging in various gimmicks to avoid having to write down their loans.
[This is a game that the U.S. government has been playing for decades, though this aspect of Hemingway's novel is for a different time and a separate discussion. Do you really believe Modern Monetary Theory?]
Yesterday things changed for the banking/lending industry. As the saying goes, "the jig is up."
Now, here's the situation right now:
First, there is massive overhead pressure on equities. The high debt Nasdaq stocks are probably in the worst shape; but investors will be acting like banks -- selling off other, healthier stocks in order to clean up their accounts. They will be doing everything they can to get out of a very risky situation.
Second, yesterday created a pretty extreme short-term oversold situation. Look for a rebound today. Duration and extent unknown. Breadth took a huge hit, with the percentage of stocks above their respective 40-day moving averages fell by 25% yesterday -- from 38% down to 28% (I'm rounding).
Third, this is the type of dynamic that sparks fear in the market and prompts people to do stupid stuff that they later regret. I speak from experience. I've been the bug. Being the windshield is better. But a one-day 25% drop in breadth is an extreme move that will inevitably be reversed to some extent...if only briefly. There's always another side to the panic trade.
If you have been reading my missives and watching my videos (along with Scott's and Rocky's), you have seen a constant drumbeat of caution, small positions, trading less, raising cash, etc.
This is a good time for you because you are prepared for what is to come. You are well positioned to come in and take the stock being sold by fearful and frantic investors who just want to go home. They want to go back to Mommy and hide behind her skirts (I know most Mommies no longer wear skirts, but roll with me on this).
Just yesterday I mentioned that cash is a position, and you should have a big cash position. Cherish that cash. If you are a short-term trader, you have some potential opportunities today. The ProShares Ultra S&P 500 ($SSO) is always an option. If you really want action, you can even go to the source of this fiasco -- SVB Financial Group ($SIVB). That dog fell 60% yesterday. But it's already up 25% this morning. If you're looking for pin action, $SIVB is your bowling alley.
My crystal ball is broken, but my nose for risk is working just fine. This is a risky environment. Behave in a way that you'll be proud of next week, next month, and next year. Hopefully you've already been behaving appropriately and avoiding dumb trades based on hope and stubbornness. Sit tight. This is just one day, and it's Friday. A lot can happen over a weekend, and investors/traders are aware of that. They tend to be more risk-averse on Fridays because they don't want to wake up on Monday and regret what they did on Friday. It's fine to miss out on making a bit of money. [As I have said before, "if the move is real, you'll have plenty of time to get in."] It is not fine to get in on losing a lot of money.
Be a professional. Professionals don't use hope as a trading strategy. Hope is for the prey, not the predator. Decide which one you want to be.
--Dan
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gopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28223451 - 03/10/23 08:36 AM (10 months, 14 days ago) |
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All my stocks and crypto are down today, except PSLV, PHYS and PAXG
Those three are holding my portfolio up
Mind a week ago they were down, but pslv jumped up $12 just today
Glad I have some
I should buy some of the ETF VGRO I plan to hold in my RDSP, so I can watch it relative to my other stocks
What's UVXY?
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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