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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#28180839 - 02/10/23 11:52 AM (11 months, 11 days ago) |
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Pulled a rabbit out of my hat today getting out of some calls I bought yesterday damn near top ticking GOOG this morning at open. Averaged three 8 day near the money calls in to underlying price 95 and sold them into the 96.5-97 pop this morning for a profit and a sigh of relief. Then shorted AVRO but got in so late had to settle for 20 bucks when it became clear it was done dumping for the day😑. Had I not been messing with those damn options I'd have had that dreamy 10 cent pull from a nice position at open risking 1.87 with a lot more shares and been done with my day. Nice trade management on this and great reads though so I'm happy about it.
Ugh.. But yeah never again with the long options overnight (until next time.) I just couldn't resist taking an intraday/overnighter position in GOOG after what amounts to the dumbest overreaction sale catalyst I've seen maybe ever. Market is never wrong they say but I mean.. Come on. And it's still hanging out at the low of the move like it's going to gap down Monday. I think if that nifty 1.5x fund GGLL gets down to 16 I'm getting one lot and holding it just on principle. I mean.. Who the hell uses Bing??
Oh and had a nasty long share trade yesterday, ol FOXO died on me. I figured 16 mil float, profitable, trading five dollars under BVPS.. AI related stock in the middle of AI fever..all lining up with a start of a clean S wave technical pattern on the daily.. Should get ten cents off this thing around open 😩 Gah! Nada.
Edited by high_desert (02/10/23 12:03 PM)
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert] 1
#28180860 - 02/10/23 12:10 PM (11 months, 11 days ago) |
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All right so who trades with Level 2 here? I've been reading the box more and it still seems so murky to me. I so often see imbalances that lead to the exact opposite outcome you'd expect.
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28181779 - 02/11/23 06:02 AM (11 months, 10 days ago) |
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Maybe somebody above my pay grade can explain this increased price for protection.. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/traders-brace-for-a-blowup-as-cost-of-protection-for-u-s-stocks-hits-highest-level-since-october/ar-AA17leKI?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=94317326
I think it's saying that volatility leads to increased demand for protection, which drives the price up. How will hedge funds and sophisticated individual traders react to this? I'm guessing it would reduce volume. Does it have implications for average buy and hold investors?
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones] 1
#28182161 - 02/11/23 10:54 AM (11 months, 10 days ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: Maybe somebody above my pay grade can explain this increased price for protection.. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/traders-brace-for-a-blowup-as-cost-of-protection-for-u-s-stocks-hits-highest-level-since-october/ar-AA17leKI?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=94317326
I think it's saying that volatility leads to increased demand for protection, which drives the price up. How will hedge funds and sophisticated individual traders react to this? I'm guessing it would reduce volume. Does it have implications for average buy and hold investors?
Looks like they're just saying that put premiums are running higher lately indicating a general atmosphere of uncertainty/fear of downturn. Seems like they're saying that this contributes to some volatility metrics going up which just causes a fear feedback loop.
I think it's a bit much to start talking about a crash from this data point.. Charts are looking like they need some cool off and a big continuation rally without another test of support lower seems a little unlikely in this economy so it makes sense why demand for puts would be up.. If I bought a bunch of shares at the lows I might be hedging against failure with puts too. S&P and nasdaq are coming off a pretty big rally and are at a technical inflection point on longer term charts. There's also the question of which companies will lead the next run, some may lag compared to past performance. I think the Google fire sale might have caused some nervousness in that arena.
But yeah options contracts are fundamentally like insurance policies for hedging and not just leverage vehicles. This is the reason for put skew.. A lot of accounts just straight up hedge their shares with puts when they suspect an incoming downturn or consolidation move but don't want to sell their shares or want guaranteed locked in profit for a fee.
it's hard to draw a lot of conclusions from this from a buy and hold investor standpoint.. Seems like it's just an indication of one of the uncertainty periods you'd expect to see at this point in the charts and taking into account inflation rates, rate hikes, employment figures etc. If you're long term DCA index ETF kind of person I wouldn't lose much sleep on it.
Sophisticated traders well, that could be a myriad of things. You can hedge your shares now too.. It might be a little pricey. Or if you're crafty and are bullish or neutral maybe you can sell some put premium with a little extra kick. Or if these fear signals really make you bearish, you can take some profit and hope to buy back much lower or maybe sell call premium.
Edited by high_desert (02/11/23 11:20 AM)
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28182176 - 02/11/23 11:05 AM (11 months, 10 days ago) |
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Missed opportunity of the month was shorting BAER in the 30s premarket. Yes, I was there and yes I bitched out. This whole affair made me want to slap 5 gs in a WeBull account just to get that extra premarket hour. But something tells me they don't have the shares to borrow for these spacs 🙄. I want a cobra account 😩
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gopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28182191 - 02/11/23 11:16 AM (11 months, 10 days ago) |
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So I have $11900 currently in my RDSP
I need to invest that money
Ill be adding $295 a month
So $3500 a year
If I understand it correctly the government will x3 the whole thing and ill get 10500 a year from the government
If I'm not understanding it correctly they only x3 the first 1500 and give me 4500 a year
I'm thinking of putting 2k into PSLV (silver stock)and 2k into PHYS (gold stock)
And then putting the rest into VGRO, as well as every $295 a month contribution into VGRO plus whatever it is the government gives me into VGRO
Does this seem like a solid plan?
This is what I have for my future, and I'll probably only have this RDSP until 2025 when i loose my dissability tax credit, thentmy rdsp gets frozen then I'll just have a tax free saving account to invest in
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: gopher]
#28185167 - 02/13/23 09:09 AM (11 months, 8 days ago) |
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Seemed like a meh morning in small cap land. All my shorts went totally illiquid and the only long I saw was a nice premarket VLON, saw it early and should have kept watching it. Some of these really early premarket pumps are having continuation during the later more retail premarket hours now which is nice to see. Looked at some large caps for an option trade this morning too and didn't see anything terribly fascinating but didn't look too hard. Eh. Mondays.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert] 2
#28188280 - 02/15/23 08:24 AM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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Settling back into my desk. Big sky was epic!


Got a few inches of fresh pow upon arrival, and another surprise dump of seven inches midweek when nobody was at the resort. 
Not seeing a whole lot to do in the market, looked like a great week to be away. S&P just digesting its recent move by grinding sideways over the past week and a half. Alert for a move above $414 on SPY, which will pique my interest to lean into some more longs. Retail numbers came in a bit hotter than expected, which has the market on edge that the Fed will continue to hike, dollar is up, just not a great environment to press trades, right here, right now.
That said, I did take a little bite off AI this morning. It's had a helluva run and reversed higher yesterday after cooling off for a week. We moved above yesterday's high so it looks like there is still some appetite for this to move. I don't really like it long term, just wanted to get my feet wet and this looked like a good spot to do it. Stop below the morning lows ~$23. Looking for around 10-20% to test the top of the range, but not going to stick around if it doesn't keep moving in that direction right away.
SHOP is also looking pretty good right now, bouncing off its 20 day, but earnings are out after the bell and I don't like to step in front of those, so I'll just wait until tomorrow to see how the market reacts to the report and look for opportunity then.
RH also looking quite nice, held its 200 day and pushing up toward the top of its range. If the market starts moving in aggregate, RH looks poised to outperform.
Treading lightly for now, fat and happy in cash, just waiting and watching.
Edit: Stop on AI ratcheted up to $23.66, just below VWAP and the 8 period EMA on the 15 min chart. Those levels should hold if upside momentum remains, and if it doesn't, I'm out.
Edit the Second: Stop on AI up to breakeven @ $23.87 after a picture perfect bounce off of VWAP (also the low of the most recent green hourly candle that we're not at the highs of). Doesn't mean the trade will make me money, but at least now I can rest easy that it won't lose me money, and that's exactly how I like my trades to go!
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (02/15/23 09:02 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28188334 - 02/15/23 09:12 AM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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AI up a solid 4%. Taking a couple of March $150 calls on AAPL here with the stock at $154.40. It's been forming a high base here, with the 8 day EMA supporting price fairly well for the last month. It just has that look like it's ready to move higher out of the base, especially now that it's printing a new high out of the last six trading sessions. Stock based stop just under low of day ($152.85).
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28188593 - 02/15/23 12:32 PM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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AI pushed to a new intraday high now and I ratcheted up a really tight 0.5% trailing stop on 2/3 of the position, which just got filled for a 5% aggregate gain. So long it holds above VWAP, I will swing the remaining 1/3 overnight since this one looks like it wants to keep moving higher. [Edit: Big volume spike off of a test $25, set a stop on the remaining position to $24.99.]
AAPL took a little dip midday, but my stop wasn't violated and we're back near the intraday highs. Calls are up a modest 5%, but the trade is working and I'm happy to let it ride.
SHOP, should have taken this for a quick day trade ahead of earnings when I highlighted it this morning, it's been going up more or less in a straight line since the open. Oh well, can't bag 'em all.
Put on a tiny bit of SSO earlier today, up a very modest 1%, which I will also swing overnight.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (02/15/23 12:43 PM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#28188644 - 02/15/23 12:55 PM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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Did get stopped out of the last tranche of AI @ $24.99 for a nice day trade. I'll keep an eye on it.
On the subject of AI, there is an ETF that holds a basket of these stocks which is likely going to find a semi-permanent place in my portfolio: BOTZ
Some individual names in the ETF that caught Dan Fitz' eye at StockMarketMentor include TSP, PEGA, PATH, OMCL and, of course, NVDA.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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high_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28189303 - 02/15/23 07:27 PM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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Charlie Munger is out there pushing BYD, a Chinese ev maker 😩 omg.. Even the Chinese don't buy Chinese vehicles unless they absolutely have to.
Eyeing a recent despac LUNR both ways intraday. Eying and took a starter ASST only because it's extreme nano float. Thinking about NRDS short for a correction at some point. Will probably be a while. And last but not least eyeing GOOG long calls for a continuation of a rebound.
Edited by high_desert (02/15/23 10:40 PM)
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high_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28189523 - 02/15/23 10:47 PM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Did get stopped out of the last tranche of AI @ $24.99 for a nice day trade. I'll keep an eye on it.
On the subject of AI, there is an ETF that holds a basket of these stocks which is likely going to find a semi-permanent place in my portfolio: BOTZ
Some individual names in the ETF that caught Dan Fitz' eye at StockMarketMentor include TSP, PEGA, PATH, OMCL and, of course, NVDA.
BOTZ looks like a really interesting ETF. I was kind of musing on what the next hype thing might be.. I feel like nanotech hasn't had a big hype period yet. I missed out on the 3D printing craze, wondering if there might be a round 2. DDD which is arguably a leader for this class looks like it's getting some life back. I know ARK has a 3D printing ETF, haven't looked at it in a while..
Forgot to mention there's a fairly low float AI related recent IPO I've been watching, BFRG.. Not much movement in the first couple days which I thought was odd, hanging out fairly close to IPO price.
Welcome back btw
Edited by high_desert (02/16/23 01:21 AM)
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28189580 - 02/15/23 11:40 PM (11 months, 6 days ago) |
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Nice pics Geo!
Man I’ve been eager to get in some snow this year but the stars didn’t align - I guess it’s still on Feb and another rain could bring something to Big Bear - but cool to see some white
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28189864 - 02/16/23 07:40 AM (11 months, 5 days ago) |
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Adding SHOP back onto my books in the wake of the negative earnings reaction. Report wasn't bad, it even beat on the bottom line, but the stock was priced to perfection and that's why I never like to buy in front of earnings, especially if the stock has been strong ahead of the report. This was more or less the opportunity I was looking for, as their plan price hikes begin to reflect in the next two quarters, and they should produce bigger upside surprises. Got filled on April $45 and June $50 calls that I had low ball bids out on for weeks, as well as some short $46 puts @ $1 that expire Friday. Will add some common if we see it move above the morning highs.
Edit: Technically SHOP is not reacting well intraday, still below VWAP and below the opening rotation, but I did want to put a small piece on my books because their price hikes should positively influence next quarter, as part of my plan here was to wait for a pullback to re-enter. Not being super aggressive given the conditions, and leaving plenty of room to add in case this continues to drift down another ~7% toward its 50 day before finding its footing.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (02/16/23 08:03 AM)
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28195694 - 02/20/23 07:36 AM (11 months, 1 day ago) |
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Started trying out buying calls on smaller positions
Gonna start making plays on the downside with puts if things start turning that way too
Did good my first call, 50% profit sold and took
Then used that money for another call and expired worthless so broke even
Looks like that's where the real money is
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28196728 - 02/20/23 08:44 PM (11 months, 1 day ago) |
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As you have evidenced, the leverage afforded through options allows you to lose as quickly as you can earn. Generally best to stick to selling puts to accumulate common, and then selling calls against that common to generate income or get called out of your shares. Naked options are useful, but you really need to dial in your holding strategy if you want to be successful, as they are exceptionally useful for short-term momentum, as well as long term placeholders, but only when the spreads are acceptable and premiums reasonable. Playing with fire, you might get burned.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28197432 - 02/21/23 12:41 PM (11 months, 11 hours ago) |
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Yeesh, rates climbing, and the sell side is very active today. We are hitting 4000 on the S&P, which is a fairly important level, although ~3950 marks the current trendline off of last years lows, so I'm pretty much looking for a bounce right about now, or maybe just a little bit (i.e. 1-2%) lower, to keep me involved on my long side trades. I ditched the AI that I swung over the weekend first thing this morning, but I'm nursing some losses on AAPL and SHOP, and with SHOP at its lower trendline, lower bollinger band and 50 day MA, it needs to find support right now or it'll be off my books as my worst trade of 2023.
I did buy just a bit more BOTZ here on its tag of its lower bollinger band + its 200 DMA, but overall the market looks quite unfriendly at the moment and does not warrant any aggressive maneauvers (except to lighten up if you are overexposed).
Noticed SGML (lithium company that I was involved with last year) breaking out this morning, up 17% on huge volume. Not exactly sure why, no position and not in any mood to chase, although the price action looks good. AEHR, another one I had last year and sold after its earning's pop, is also hanging in there admirably, with the bollingers squeezing. Alert at $37.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28197625 - 02/21/23 03:27 PM (11 months, 8 hours ago) |
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So if I was considering calls for MP with a strike for $35 and it looks like they expeire March 17, is that going to be less risk on compared to the first call I took
The first call I tried was 1 day and I sold it in 30 minutes
Thinking the longer expiration (assuming that March 17 is the expiration) would be a bigger buffer on the umshort term movement
Not sure what I'd be looking for in terms of spreads and premiums, is that measured with the Greeks?
Looking at the weekly chart for MP I think some good PR and it will start moving
*Eyeing LAC right now as well
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
Edited by Enkidu (02/21/23 08:12 PM)
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28198406 - 02/21/23 10:44 PM (11 months, 1 hour ago) |
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Super quick options Greek 101
Theta is the time decay, if you buy a contract time works against you, if you sell a contract time works in your favor
Delta is the change value of the underlying stock, if you buy a call it is positive, if you buy a put it is negative, it changes when you take the sell side of the deal.
The spreads are based on the bid/ask, illiquid positions generally have wider bid/asks than liquid positions. Wider spreads generally have greater risk because of liquidity
I think that buying LEAPS is cool because you have a large amount of theta to burn through while still having delta to your favor compared to just holding stock
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