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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28166132 - 01/31/23 03:27 PM (11 months, 21 days ago)

Hindenburg apparently destabilized an entire foreign market. 😂  I'm glad I was here for this proud moment in market history.


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
    #28166665 - 01/31/23 08:38 PM (11 months, 21 days ago)

Tsla looks like it's posting a bullflag on the shorter time frames, 15 min / 1 hr, if it breaks that range I think ill bite


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #28167054 - 02/01/23 05:03 AM (11 months, 20 days ago)

Looks like it's breaking out I entered this morning


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #28167146 - 02/01/23 06:51 AM (11 months, 20 days ago)

TSLA is trading right at its upper bollinger band.  Resistance @ $180 and I wouldn't be quick to trust the pre-market moves.  It is flagging pretty nicely, but I would be cautious about taking a big position right here, it hasn't tagged its 8 day EMA in 5 sessions and we may see some cautious trading more generally, ahead of the Fed this week.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #28167194 - 02/01/23 07:49 AM (11 months, 20 days ago)

Another quick note to consider with regard to TSLA, Enkidu... although this lesson is important to apply to any "back to the well" trade.  TSLA ran 75% off its early January bottom.  That's 75% in less than a month.  Buying it this morning should be considered a completely new trade.  Your gains from the last trade are irrelevant.  Don't use those gains as a "cushion" to justify a bad entry.  Now TSLA may just take off on the Fed news today and go test $200, but if you think about all the buying pressure that it took over the past month to bring it to where it is, where will the new buyers come from?  My suspicion is, that at least short term, everyone who wanted a piece of TSLA, got it.  Upside from here, although surely possible, I do think it will eventually test $200, is going to be a lot harder to come by than the upside seen over the past month.

In other news, ZIM firmly above $19 and out of congestion, this one is too volatile to buy on breakouts, but I still like the setup for a multi-week, possibly multi-month trade, buying at or below its 8 day EMA.

SHOP, NVDA, MSFT all flagging, taking a little rest but these are looking very nice.  As I write, NVDA and SHOP are actually waking up a bit.  I have enough exposure to move the needle a bit, not huge positions, but I feel that's appropriate and I don't want to be aggressive right in front of the Fed announcement.

MDC just continuing to work.  Earnings are out, dividend yield, easy to hold.

TLRY, alert at $3.40, a move above that level should be actionable to the upside.

GNRC, just grinding higher.  Not super exciting, but it is paying to own it.

Waiting for KGC to tighten up a little bit here, it's come off the highs and if it can squeeze here above its 200 day, that may setup for a nice entry.

SGML, stable basing here, alert @ $32.50 and then I would suspect a test of the old highs at $38, which is pretty nice on a % basis.

Market likely to mark time today as we await the Fed.  98%+ probability of a 0.25% hike priced in.  I think they may go 0.5% just to flex their muscle, and that probably would cause a reflexive draw down in risk assets, although I think it would be fairly temporary.  We have almost two months until the next meeting, so let's get this outta the way and move on.  Market is primed to accept a few more hikes and is firmly anticipating the hike cycle to wind down into the back half of the year.

As Dan Fitzpatrick humorously pointed out this morning, the Fed is just handling its own job security.  It's the arsonist and the firefighter.  Push a little farther on rates, then start cutting, then start pushing again.  And so the pendulum continues to swing...


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28167219 - 02/01/23 08:27 AM (11 months, 20 days ago)

Closed out my short $46 SHOP puts for $0.20 (capturing +80% of their value - once you've achieved that much of the value and there's still days left on the contract, it's typically worthwhile to buy it back to free up capital that otherwise remains committed to cover the potential put obligation).  I now have an ask out to sell $49 weekly puts for $1, and would be comfortable buying the stock at a net $48 basis.

Edit: Got my fill on the short $49's, with the stock at $49.90.


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Edited by geokills (02/01/23 08:31 AM)


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28167792 - 02/01/23 04:02 PM (11 months, 20 days ago)

I hear ya Geo, I also picked up amd this morning :hehehe:

I won't be holding tsla too long before taking profit,

Up 6% on tsla and 7% on amd right now

On second thought that Tesla weekly chart looks pretty good here.



Edited by Enkidu (02/01/23 05:18 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #28168669 - 02/02/23 07:59 AM (11 months, 19 days ago)

Interesting you like the TSLA weekly, I don't.  Slamming right into its 20 week and 200 week moving averages, as well as prior support from 2021 (which often becomes resistance once broken).  Right now though, pretty much everything is working.


There might be a little more juice in this, but in my view, it's time to sell the rips folks!  Especially for me, this action off of the Fed was a gift.  I don't like to have a big book when I'm on vacation, and I fly out Sunday for a week of skiing in Big Sky, so this morning's beautiful action has given me the ultimate opportunity to clear the deck.

:flyby:

  • Sold ZIM calls, up 107%
  • Sold NVDA calls, up 94%
  • Sold MSFT calls, up 50%
  • Sold SHOP common, up 20%
  • Sold ZIM common, up 20%
  • Sold TLRY calls, up 15%
  • Sold GNRC common, up 10%


:rainingjoints:


The trading accounts are essentially flat now, only thing I kept on is that nice dividend payer MDC and my short weekly SHOP calls which will assuredly expire worthless unless Putin fires some nukes tonight.

Up 35.6% year to date, in aggregate, vs the S&P's 8.5%.

:feelsgoodman:


As more general notes, the Fed blinked, the bond market is signaling that it feels the Fed is definitely past its peak aggression.  I'd guess we probably see another raise or two, but the market is a forward pricing mechanism, and the market is anticipating a return to easier money, at some point.  Given the depression we have seen in stocks over the past year, it would appear that the bottom is definitely in, and so, sidelined money is going to feel rushed to get involved.  We are extended short term, and there will be zigs and zags, BUT, I suspect that we may not actually give back all that much.  Tech in particular has seen a beautiful breakout.  Nevertheless, the market will soon be due to digest the move and at least rest a bit, and regardless, when I've quadrupled the S&P's return in the first month of the year, it's time to take a step back in efforts to help avoid emotional errors such as cocky overconfidence.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28168779 - 02/02/23 09:32 AM (11 months, 19 days ago)

I just scooched my 401k over to a more aggressive position. Had a chunk sitting in Stable Value, moved most of that bit over to S&P index fund. The rest is mostly in a small & mid cap fund where it has been.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28168877 - 02/02/23 10:30 AM (11 months, 19 days ago)

Small caps are likely to outperform if the Fed continues to slow down and, ultimately, pivot.  They benefit the most from looser monetary policy (i.e. cheap debt).  IWM is a Russel 2000 index ETF you could hold for exposure to this class in aggregate, if you aren't interested in picking individual names.  Retirement accounts with limited fund options should offer a close approximation.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28169434 - 02/02/23 04:24 PM (11 months, 19 days ago)

What I have tracks the Russell Small Cap Completeness Index, which is, as I understand it, the Russel 3000 minus the companies that are also in the S&P 500.


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28170409 - 02/03/23 07:17 AM (11 months, 18 days ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
I just scooched my 401k over to a more aggressive position. Had a chunk sitting in Stable Value, moved most of that bit over to S&P index fund. The rest is mostly in a small & mid cap fund where it has been.




Yeah, all my recent 401K contributions went to stable value; can't decide whether to pull the trigger.  Everything else is trending up inversely to how much it lost last year. Amazon is my big winner, followed by a Vanguard small cap. The S&P is up 9% but that's only slightly better than the large cap value fund (which barely declined in 2022)


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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28170422 - 02/03/23 07:29 AM (11 months, 18 days ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
What I have tracks the Russell Small Cap Completeness Index, which is, as I understand it, the Russel 3000 minus the companies that are also in the S&P 500.




That sounds like a good fund, because you know how much you have outside large caps.

Sometimes when people have several funds, they think they have more diversification but are often duplicating the same big companies.


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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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OfflineInnerWisdom
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
    #28170470 - 02/03/23 08:26 AM (11 months, 18 days ago)

holy fuck I love this rollercoaster market! It's like tripping on mushrooms big time.
That NFP data denied my big gains, but I didnt lose anything. Now it's going up again!? Fuck yes.

:incredible:


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: InnerWisdom]
    #28172685 - 02/04/23 09:12 PM (11 months, 17 days ago)

I'm longing equities form here unless we see growth deteriorate


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax]
    #28173003 - 02/05/23 06:00 AM (11 months, 16 days ago)

Thinking about picking up a leaps call or two on Ford just on the principle of the thing.. I mean the fwd P/E is 8 and the F ATM January 24 12 calls are 250 bucks.. Maybe I'm dumb idk but that seems pretty cheap to me.


Edited by high_desert (02/05/23 06:15 AM)


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
    #28173032 - 02/05/23 07:05 AM (11 months, 16 days ago)

Anybody pay for market related news publications or information services sites? I'm a cheapskate but I have a few I've always wanted to try out based on what I've gotten from their free service.. Finviz for custom screening but damn it seems pricey for that. Seeking Alpha would also be a top pick along with Bloomberg. Maybe Simply Wall St. and Benzinga..


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Offlinegopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
    #28173134 - 02/05/23 09:11 AM (11 months, 16 days ago)

Anyone know what VGRO is? I dont quite understand it but I want to dump 12k into it for 32 years


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For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome.

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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: gopher] * 1
    #28173538 - 02/05/23 02:37 PM (11 months, 16 days ago)

VGRO is a Canadian set it and forget it fund.

Vanguard U.S. Total Market Index ETF 34.92%
Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF 23.67%
Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex North America Index ETF 15.99%
Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF 11.62%
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index ETF 5.79%
Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Aggregate Bond Index ETF (CAD-hedged) 4.08%
Vanguard U.S. Aggregate Bond Index ETF (CAD-hedged) 3.93%


35% USA stocks, your apple, microsoft, amazon, chevron, home depot etc.
24% Canada, Telus, TD, RBC, Enbridge, Suncor
16% Europe, Japan, UK
12% Canadian Bonds
6% China and other developing markets
8% Bonds.


That is a nice aggressive fund you could put your money in for 40 years and not look at it again. I was balancing into that at some point, but then covid hit and I chickened out and did some crazy shit with gold and microsoft instead. But honestly VGRO would be the best bet for 98% of investors in Canada.

20% bonds is a nice amount that smooths out risk. Lots of people have seen bonds as largely useless and they have been for the last 15 years or so, but I think the negative real interest rate experiment is over and we will revert to a a 60 / 40 split for most people as bonds have returns that exceed inflation. We aren't there yet, but I think thats the way its going to go.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


Edited by Ahab McBathsalts (02/05/23 02:40 PM)


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts] * 1
    #28177296 - 02/08/23 08:33 AM (11 months, 13 days ago)

I think AI (C3.AI Inc) is worth keeping an eye on right now.


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