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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159930 - 01/27/23 02:12 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Sold everything right before close
Tsla was the winner
Bought at 130 sold at 179
Took some 5% or so gains and walked in the rest I was holding.
Looking for pullbacks for re-entry
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



Registered: 10/25/16
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28160251 - 01/27/23 06:01 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Wait so LCID ran to 17 then dumped so quickly that it halted a couple times? Wow.. Market is really getting interesting.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28160309 - 01/27/23 06:37 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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It was only halted on the way up, first at $12.50, then $13.50, $16, and finally at the highs of $17.80 before it came back down to earth. A few of the StockMarketMentor guys were all over that one. I wasn't privy to the action myself, only reading about other traders who had already been involved with it and scaled out into the strength, as one generally should when those types of takeover rumors occur.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28160610 - 01/27/23 10:42 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Really? I thought I saw gaps on the minute chart
Man I'm mad at myself for not sticking around to watch BZFD a bit longer this morning.
Edited by high_desert (01/27/23 10:57 PM)
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert] 1
#28160623 - 01/27/23 10:53 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Weekly chart for dxy, wonder if it will get a bounce here at old resistance as rsi Bottoms out
Hopefully does and then gets rejected as the market corrects and then bounces
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



Registered: 10/25/16
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28160747 - 01/28/23 02:58 AM (1 year, 21 hours ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said:

Weekly chart for dxy, wonder if it will get a bounce here at old resistance as rsi Bottoms out
Hopefully does and then gets rejected as the market corrects and then bounces
Idk but nice RSI divergence at the bottom there in 2018. This is an interesting index, seems to me like it ends up being kind of a USD/EUR hedged with a few other currencies.
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28160831 - 01/28/23 06:26 AM (1 year, 17 hours ago) |
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Wtf?? Ran across this weird spac ALTI that actually seems like a real company and, get ready for this, a director from the spac side of the merger has bought a couple million dollars worth of shares... at or around 10 bucks😨. When was the last time anyone saw a real company come out of a spac? When was the last time an insider buying 2.5 million in spac shares at 10 didn't look like a crazy man lighting a barrel of money on fire along with his clothes and his hairpiece? And this guy ran AIG equity funds and clerked for the Supreme Court. I'm scared for him but also intrigued.
Anyway.. I'm really showing my market age here but a couple years ago you could buy spac warrants and actually make money off them because they moved with the class As instead of immediately depreciating to 5 cents no matter how shares fluctuated because suddenly in 22 everyone figured these were junk.
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Hartford
Lawful Good



Registered: 11/27/19
Posts: 1,106
Loc: Tennessee
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28161299 - 01/28/23 12:30 PM (1 year, 11 hours ago) |
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Two publically-traded companies I doubt will survive much longer are Oatley (OTLY) and Wework (WE). Both seemingly half-baked businesses.
Edited by Hartford (01/28/23 01:55 PM)
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Gorlax



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28162671 - 01/29/23 10:43 AM (11 months, 23 days ago) |
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It appears we might get a decent risk on rally (bear market bounce). Core PCE is above the federal funds rate so we have only postponed any deflationary pivot for 1-2 quarters imo. Probably been hearing nonstop about the inverted yield curve well it is the reversion that does the damage. Investors should remember that the stock market itself is a leading economic indicator. It will not only price in a downturn in corporate profits in advance, but also an eventual recovery.
Emerging markets are hot right now. JP Morgan is optimistic that investor sentiment will improve in the back half of 2023. They also think this will eventually favor early-cycle segments of the market as inflation slows and interest rates plateau. ( This seems pretty on point tho it could take into 2024 to get full rebound) The prediction still is that by early 2024 the unemployment rate will touch 7%. Sort of mixed signals. In terms of investment avenues, JP Morgan currently favors real estate investment trusts (REITS), select industrials, semiconductors, and small-and-mid cap companies.
Currently "Basic Materials" & "Energy" have been some of the highest yielding since the start of 2023. Particularly for Basic Materials we have "Steel" & "Copper" performing very well based on the reopening of China and infrastructure bill projects that start to kick in.
I've been playing rather defensive since I got smoked a few times trying to fight the FED. It has seemed every time going into the FOMC meeting we have this hopium for a few weeks before hand only to get rejected.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax]
#28163925 - 01/30/23 07:55 AM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Seeing a little weakness across the board this morning, but we are above the S&P's "opening rotation high" (first 15 minute candle), which is generally a positive sign for the day. A bit of a mixed message, and as a lot of issues appear rather extended (e.g. NVDA, SHOP, TSLA) short term, I'm not surprised to see a little pause, that hopefully, refreshes the advance.
As SHOP is off better than 2% this morning, I am trying to sell some $46 puts which will expire Friday for $1, which will require a bit more downside to fill. I would expect the issue to test its 8 day EMA at some point, which is some 6% lower, and also currently coincides with its 200 day that has yet to be tested after we broke through last week.
ZIM is surprisingly strong this morning, but it's been rather whippy ever since I entered the position a couple of weeks ago. It still looks biased to breakout, and as long as it stays above its 20 day moving average I'm expecting to hold it for quite some time to allow the thesis to play out, but this one warrants a smaller position size and/or a bit of an iron stomach, as it is more volatile than most issues.
Moved up my stop on GNRC to $113.13, just below the morning lows. I like the structure here, but as I'll be out of town next week, I don't want new positions sitting on the books if they're not working. It's holding right at its 8 day EMA, which it should if this position is going to sustain a bona fide move higher.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (01/30/23 08:03 AM)
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28164019 - 01/30/23 09:08 AM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Tsla in and out was probably the best trade I've ever made so far
Up 27% ytd
Glad to see a pullback and give me a new opportunity for an entry on a new trade
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28164038 - 01/30/23 09:20 AM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Dxy showing life here
Weekly and daily
Daily showing bullish divergence at the top of the old Weekly range
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28164098 - 01/30/23 10:08 AM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Got my fill on the short SHOP $46 weekly puts for $1. Put an ask out for $45 weeklies @ $1 as well. If put to me, I would be buying with a net cost basis right around the base of last week's breakout, which is cool with me. If not, I'll just pocket the income and try again next week.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28164472 - 01/30/23 02:28 PM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Frustrated with myself lately
Able to identify set ups but not able to hold size through with conviction
I was talking with a fella who pretty much teed up the natural gas short for me in late august. I knew it was a big play and sized it pretty big at the onset
The volatility shook me and then i got distracted onto other things
Any big winner will be an emotional roller coaster, I know this. And yet I find myself not doing what I’m supposed to do
A simple single idea held through to completion is all you need
Anyways, I have everything in high income products right now, doing nothing but reinvesting
I like to think I can spot some of the big ones when they do come around more than before, maybe I’ll get it right someday
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28164484 - 01/30/23 02:40 PM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said:
Quote:
today mylove said: next 1-2 years all of those get better entry points (AMD NVDA INTC)... IMO. if I miss, ah well
Basing that on anything in particular or you just don't think we've seen market bottoms or?
Looks like a decent time to be building AMD or similar stocks, I like MP a lot
I know this is old, sorry for no reply
Over production
Demand destruction
China tension
I think its starting to show itself
Amd and nvda were good for a trade when you made this reply. I think they eventually head way lower over next 1-2 years
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: today mylove] 1
#28164573 - 01/30/23 03:39 PM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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Quote:
today mylove said: Frustrated with myself lately [...] Able to identify set ups but not able to hold size through with conviction
Heh, yeah, well the funny thing about human psychology is that you'll never get the trade AS right as you want to; often being smaller than you want to be (or too quick to exit) with your winners.
Two things I have found that help me in this regard is to:
- Trade in scales. If a trade is working and you just need to scratch the itch for whatever reason, sell a little bit, but always leave some on. If you get a pullback to support, buy back what you sold. If you don't, be happy that you didn't sell your entire position. And then...
- Always let a stop loss order take you out of your final position in any winning trade. It's ok to manually execute a sell when you need to scratch the itch. But in line with trading in scales, the last tranche of any winning trade should not be sold manually. You've likely already booked profits along the way, so give the last part of your position room to run by implementing a trailing sell stop. You might give a few % back, but often enough, this will keep you in your winning trades, and that last bit will probably get closed out much higher than when you thought to yourself you "should" perhaps sell it outright to shut the trade down with finality.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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doolhoofd
doolhoofd.com



Registered: 12/22/22
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28164731 - 01/30/23 05:12 PM (11 months, 22 days ago) |
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-------------------- Penny: 'What are you and Professor FussyFace up to tonight?' Leonard: "Star Wars on Blu-ray." Penny: 'Haven't you seen that movie like, a thousand times?' Leonard: "Not on Blu-ray. Only twice on Blu-ray." Penny: 'Oh, Leonard...' Leonard: "I know. It's high-resolution sadness." - The Big Bang Theory, S07E09
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: doolhoofd]
#28165413 - 01/31/23 05:56 AM (11 months, 21 days ago) |
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Trading started going better for me when I was patient, used a reduced size for trade so that I removed emotional attachment, trusted the chart and only made a decision based on technicals I thought I was seeing,
I'd say reducing the size of the trade might have helped. If it was a lot of money I'd be worried and emotionally attached a bit and it would impact my decisions
I also started exiting a trade in full no matter what aif I reach a 10% loss. Obviously I cut it a lot sooner as soon as I see a technical reason to, but never will I lose more than 10% on a trade, ever.
Interesting take on amd and nvda for the next couple years, maybe it will take that long to catch up. I'll be trading the stock market and not really investing.
Anything I plan to hold long will likely go toward crypto, maybe a few stocks.
Dxy is pushing out here on the 4hr while assets are where a pullback would make sense and where they have started pulling back.
I'll look for support in aseets and a rejection from dxy as a sign to take an entry on a new trade.
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28165540 - 01/31/23 07:40 AM (11 months, 21 days ago) |
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Not trying to be aggressive here, but I did take a single NVDA March $200 call here with NVDA @ $193. Stock finally pulled back a bit yesterday, hanging just above its 8 day EMA which has acted as support for pretty much all of January. As Enkidu alluded to using smaller positions in order not to get shaken out of a trade as easily, I am likewise managing risk here through position size and buying a contract that has 45 days until expiry.
No stop on the position presently, as I am mindful that an overly aggressive Fed may swoon the market and NVDA could easily run down to test its cluster of major moving averages around ~$170 and there wouldn't be anything wrong with the stock. Indeed, that's where I would be watching for longer term support as an opportunity to really build this position up. However, being mindful of how difficult it HAS been to buy (because it has been so strong), that's why I'm taking the nibble now after a relatively mild 7% pullback from its recent high.
SHOP is in a similar position and pattern, but I'll keep playing this one via short puts for now. I did put out a couple GTC bids for SHOP Apr $45 and Jun $50 calls, both for $5. SHOP would need to come down to test its 8 day EMA for those to fill.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (01/31/23 07:48 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28165694 - 01/31/23 09:16 AM (11 months, 21 days ago) |
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Totally cheated when we moved above the opening rotation high and bought a little SHOP common .
Keeping my ask for the $45 weekly puts and my bids for the Apr & March calls in place. SPX bouncing off 4000 on a one day pullback is reason enough for me to put a little skin in. Stop on SHOP common @ $48.19 to start.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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