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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28158364 - 01/26/23 01:06 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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Markets remain resilient with consistent buying after the morning gap 'n swoon. The close is often the most important tell, and looking at all the long lower wicks on the candle charts, both daily and weekly, indicates that there is definitely an underlying bid going on as institutional money continues to accumulate after the shit year that was 2022, and in particular now that everyone finished their tax loss harvesting at the end of the year, which further depressed prices. Because of this dynamic, it does appear that the path of least resistance is to the upside, although of course, as soon as I start leaning into it is likely when the market slaps me across the mug and says "now just wait here a minute!"
Toward that end, I'm going to just barely scratch the itch on SHOP right here @ $48, by putting on a very small common stock position (a token placeholder really). In conjunction, I've also sold a single $47.50 put for $0.50, which would buy me 100 shares at a net price of $47 if the stock is trading below $47.50 at the close tomorrow. $47 is roughly the lows of today, and I do wish I had put some on, so selling the put is my makeshift time machine. Knowing my luck, the stock will close at $47.51, I won't get put any shares, and then it'll open up another 5-10% Monday.
I've also been weighing the chart of the S&P, as I always do in order to gain broader context and set my bias... and I just can't shake the feeling, now that I see SPY pushing above its 50 week moving average after a picture perfect intraweek pullback bounce from its 8 week EMA, that it's really coiling up for a breakout to the upside (and on a shorter time frame, decisively breaking above its 200 day MA today so long as we close near the highs). We have the potential "higher low" printed @ ~$375. If we break above $410 (currently at $403 and rising), that will confirm a "higher high" print, and it just seems like that's what the market is intending to do.
As such, I am also picking up a few March $405 calls on the SPY. Keep in mind, by my books, these positions are all being kept on a smaller size for now. If we back-fill to the SPY's 20 day SMA (aka the middle Bollinger Band which is around $391 and about to cross the 50 day), I will be on the lookout for support and add to all of these positions on the first signs of it, provided each issue's technical structure (SHOP/NVDA/SPY) remains intact.
Last note, I'm a bit disappointed I allowed myself to get shaken out of KGC. The position was closed for a solid gain, but it has continued to grind higher, as the GDX miners complex appears to maintain its steady march higher. I feel like I'm already chasing SHOP and NVDA a bit, and I don't want to end up feeling like I'm doing that with KGC as well, so I'm not putting that back on right now, but I am sharing my thoughts as it is still very strong and anyone holding it will likely do well to continue doing just that.
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28158647 - 01/26/23 04:16 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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Up 20% here on tsla, making me think about letting it go
Tomorrow is Thursday
Might get the pull back moving into the weekend 
Weekly charts still look like we can move and daily chart for tsla is just breaking the 50ma, I'll probably keep holding and be greedy here
Not really seeing any indicators pointing to a reversal
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Purple sunset



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28158668 - 01/26/23 04:27 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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I am getting into it for the first time
But just investing in banks and stuff slowly low risk
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#28158723 - 01/26/23 05:05 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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Nice job on TSLA. I'd definitely set a stop below today's low ($154.76) to take you out on a reversal, as a break of that level will likely see the earnings gap fill down to ~$145... you don't want to give back that much of a nice gain. Intel was weak after the bell, which is affecting semiconductors generally and may pressure the market in aggregate.
AMZN, worth setting an alert at $100. It's been basing for weeks just above its 50 day, with a very tight range today right above the 8day EMA and at the top of the range. A move above $100 will likely be good for a few % continuation, and maybe even the entire ~13% up to its 200 day MA.
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28158745 - 01/26/23 05:21 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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Thanks for the advice Geo
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Baby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28158760 - 01/26/23 05:30 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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Isn't the fed due to announce the next rate hike in the next week or two?
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#28158780 - 01/26/23 05:45 PM (1 year, 2 days ago) |
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Fed schmed, I think there are fairly clear (yet broad) expectations of a general tendency to start lightening up on the language as the economic data has generally been showing a tapering of inflationary forces. The market still expects the Fed to hike, so as long as they can keep any hikes below 0.75%, I don't think the market will make too much of it. There will be some volatility around the announcement no doubt, but I think we are getting pretty close to rounding the corner with regard to Fed taking a less than extremely aggressive stance going forward.
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high_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159422 - 01/27/23 07:26 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Poor INTC.. The only semi that is still cyclical 😢
Shoulda hit that 20 cent fade end of premarket sell-off in BZFD. Day's move is anybody's guess.. She's apparently profitable with cash and tied to meta. Fundamentals seem too solid for a real rabid runner.
Ok I'm sick of SVRA having green days already. She's like that one girl in high school that never has a bad hair day. Daily looks like a heikin ashi.
Finally I just want to remind everyone before open not to take this market too seriously because there was a ticker called STAB on the nasdaq and apparently nobody thought that was a bad idea.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28159445 - 01/27/23 07:48 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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I am in INTC Feb $26.5 calls with a stock based stop a penny below the morning low of $26.77.
I am also in some AMZN, as it is moving above $100 per the thesis I mentioned after the close yesterday.
Seeing some nice support after the INTC hangover here... let's see if it continues through the day.
NVDA, SHOP, MDC, all still working. MSFT taking a little breather but that's ok.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159447 - 01/27/23 07:52 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Doubled down on INTC calls on the move above the first 15 min candle and moved stop up marginally to low of 2nd 15 min candle @ 26.91. Will trim if we run into the 8 period EMA on the 15 min chart (presently around $29 but dropping rapidly), and may let the rest run for a bit, depending on my overall market bias at the time.
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gopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159453 - 01/27/23 07:53 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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My canadian Netflix is up $2 since I posted about it, I said I think its at the top but I bought 1 share anyways, looks like maybe it will grow some more
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159470 - 01/27/23 08:06 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Stop on AMZN moved up to $101.45. I took some very risky 0 day til expiration $100 calls this morning, because they were cheap and the stock opened strong without looking back. They're up 80% in 30 minutes, and while I think AMZN can give me a little more, it's time to protect profits. I also have AMZN common I picked up, that I will let ride with a looser stop at the day's low, as it is no where near as sensitive to volatility as the 0dte options position (something I don't generally recommend doing unless you are very confident in the trade and can hold yourself to strict discipline trough position size and stop controls).
Likewise, INTC calls are up 30% so far. This one made it's low in the first 10 minutes and also hasn't looked back. There will be some overhead resistance, but typically these types of earnings craters that land near a support zone on companies that clearly aren't going to go out of business, are worth taking a counter trend on. I'll take some of this position off today, maybe even all of it, but I also might let swing until next week, depending on how strong the close is.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159477 - 01/27/23 08:12 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Quick note on leverage... position sizing is SO important. I picked up a few hundred shares of AMZN @ $100.25, that required $30,000 in capital, and the position, although performing well so far, is only returning 1% (~$300).
The 5 contracts of 0dte $100 AMZN calls I bought, required only $360 in capital, and are now up over 100%, returning $400+.
So you can see the power of leverage, but just as easily as it has doubled my outlay, it could have taken literally all of it away today. That's why I only put in $360. It was a risk that was acceptable. I briefly considered moving up to $102 calls and going in for the same amount. They were trading at $0.10 and are now at $0.33, for a better than 300% gain. That would have been nice, but it required a much bigger move, and frankly, they made that move in the first 15 minutes and haven't really budged since, as AMZN isn't moving quite fast enough to guarantee that it has enough intraday momentum to make it past $102 in a meaningful way before the close. So although the trade would have returned three times as much capital right now, the probability of it working out was far less.
Just a quick little lesson on the power of options, and why you need to be exceedingly cautious in their use, especially with near term expirations. It is very rare I trade same day expiration, and frankly, it should be very rare, as the probabilities of the trade working in your favor are generally extremely low. So when you do, you must keep the position small, and tighten up your stops very quickly.
On that note, I'm taking my 107% gain on the AMZN options, because as any trader who plays with this type of fire will come to understand... easy come, easy go. My INTC call position is considerably larger anyway, as it has a higher probability for success, and I don't want to have too many things to manage at once.
 Smoke 'em if ya got 'em.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159507 - 01/27/23 08:42 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Well in hindsight, it would have been nice to have kept ratcheting up the trailing stop on that AMZN call position instead of ditching it by choice. I mean, I won't begrudge a double, but it's up another 100% since. And those $102's I was talking about, now that AMZN has shown it isn't letting up (and indeed crossed $102), they are up an eye watering 1000%. AMZN may have enough gas to tag its upper bollinger at ~$104 if the market cooperates, but I'm OK with just the common at this point, it's lower stress and the kiddo is about to wake up and want my attention. I will probably spin out the AMZN common if we do hit $104 level, as earnings are just around the corner and I definitely am not holding this dog over that.
Still hangin' tight on the entirety of my INTC position, now up better than 50%. In aggregate, bumped the entirety of my trading accounts better than 5% so far today.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159525 - 01/27/23 08:53 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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SPY broke through VWAP, I'm out of SPY March calls for 10% gain, close the NVDA placeholder call I put on yesterday for a 10%. Closed AMZN common for a 2% gain, and shut down half of my INTC calls for a 40% gain.
SPY is my primary barometer for market direction, and if it's deteriorating, so is my bias. We're almost back at the day's lows and we've seen a pretty good run here. Time to raise some cash, as I wouldn't want the stress of holding all this exposure over the weekend.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159685 - 01/27/23 11:03 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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I don't generally like to "go back to the well" so to speak... but the SPY retook VWAP and made a new intraday high. Always important to recognize when what you expect to happen, doesn't, and adapt accordingly. Timing worked out well as the kiddo finished breakfast and went out on a bike ride with Mom, just as I saw INTC tightening up right above VWAP. Basically an intraday bullish flag pattern that allows me to re-enter a position with a tight stop.
So I rolled up to the Feb $27.50 calls this time, @ $0.90 each (stock at ~$27.80), with a really tight stop on half the position at $27.69, and a looser stop below VWAP, but still pretty tight at $27.39. Gotta be mindful that we're entering the doldrums of the day, when volume peters out and stocks just tend to float around a bit, so I'm not expecting a huge move here, and may get clipped, but with the stops tight enough, it does give a low risk opportunity to catch an end of day push to the upside, as the animal spirits in this market appear to be in play and they are continuing to lean to bullish.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159731 - 01/27/23 11:32 AM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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GNRC has based nicely after a tremendous fall from grace. Retook its 50 day, been testing it over the past two weeks and is now pushing to a higher high. Took a position here just under $118, via Feb $115 calls and some common. Would add a bit more if we get a pullback bounce around $115 next week. Looks ripe for a more sustained move higher and planning to swing this one for at least a week or two. It's in a pretty good spot, sector-wise, engaged in providing power grid software solutions, backup, and prime power systems for home and industrial applications, solar + battery storage solutions, virtual power plant platforms, and engine- and battery-powered tools and equipment. This plays into aging utility infrastructure as well as the move toward more renewable energy sources and electric vehicle use.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159853 - 01/27/23 01:21 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Man, this market has been a bit of a happy drunk today, just keeps on giving, although we are seeing just a little bit of higher volume selling coming in right now as I write, 45 min to the close. My "back to the well" trade on INTC is up 15%, looks like we might pin at $28 today, so I'm putting a stop below the 5 minute intraday low @ 27.99 which will lock in a minimum 10% on this bonus trade while still giving it the potential to enjoy an end of day push.
So much stuff has just been flying, with SPY leading the charge, lots of really good looking charts out there.
If I were Enkidu, I'd probably take 20-50% of my TSLA off before the close, as it's pushing through its third standard deviation bollinger band, which is not statistically sustainable long term (although could theoretically continue into next week if the stars align). Nevertheless, up another 12% today on top of his already handsome gain, and that warrants locking a bit in. On the rest, I'd put the stop below this morning's low of $161.17 and let it run, as $200 appears to be the writing on the wall.
I am putting on some March $3 calls for TLRY. I've done well with TLRY in the past, but it's been a big stinker over the last year. Nevertheless, I keep an eye on it, cause it's fun to trade these low dollar issues sometimes. It seems to be creating a little flag here above its 20 day moving average, and pushing up a bit on good volume today. The 50 day is right overhead, so that could keep a lid on things, which is why I'm not full size on the position, and bought contracts all the way out to March. But I think that if it can clear its 50, TLRY should test its 200 day overhead, which is some 30% higher than where the stock is currently trading.
A lot of posts today, which is unusual for me on a Friday, but the market is throwing off cash and I've been around to make good use of it, so there it is... Generally keeping exposure a bit lighter going into the weekend. All these new positions (i.e. GNRC & TLRY), are small size under the assumption that we will likely see a bit of retracement next week, hopefully a positive test of the S&P's 4000 level, which is around its 200 day EMA, and then off to the races. All in all, great market structure today after the odd morning swoon, but the lows held, and here we are near the highs getting close to the close!
Current exposure: MSFT, INTC (expect to be out by end of day), MDC, SHOP (short puts which will expire worthless today - again!), TLRY, ZIM and just a little bit of NVDA common as a placeholder
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CHeifM4sterDiezL
Chief Globerts

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28159869 - 01/27/23 01:34 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Yah I saw TLRY moved today def not as white hot as when everyone had a ton of extra money to dick into shitty weed stocks
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
#28159896 - 01/27/23 01:52 PM (1 year, 1 day ago) |
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Juicy market, little end of day fade, not surprised.
Out of INTC @ $28.08 for an extra 15% on the bonus trade... that's a wrap! 
All small positions heading into Monday: MSFT, GNRC, MDC, TLRY, ZIM, NVDA
Really hoping we can get a pullback next week so I can build up a real position in SHOP.
RH is tightening up right at its 200 day, bollingers still a bit wide, but worth watching next week for sure. Alerts @ $315 and $325.
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Edited by geokills (01/27/23 01:56 PM)
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