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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
    #28155805 - 01/24/23 04:11 PM (1 year, 4 days ago)

Hit a premarket high area and covered at open on that grinding bio CBAY that's lingering on my list due to it remaining liquid and a recent offering. Turned out to be the only good short of the day on it, except an afternoon mean reversion maybe.

Been a while since I've traded extended hours but luckily I remembered that it's best to treat ext. hour sessions like their own little trading day and covered at open for a nice little gain on just a few hundred shares. I'll be trading this with a lot of caution if at all from here.. it shrugged off an offering like nothing.
Not much else looking interesting in small cap land. Was looking for a little morning volume on HLLY to signal continuation but nothing materialized.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28156027 - 01/24/23 06:26 PM (1 year, 4 days ago)

MSFT reported and beat the headline number, initially popping ~6% after hours, but giving it all back and then some after the conference call, although still hanging around the day's close ~$240.  I haven't dug into the details of why the initial positive reaction was voided, but that sort of thing is not uncommon, and one of the reasons I don't trade earnings reports, and especially not after hours.  In any event, happy to have booked some profits on yesterday's rip, and happy that the report wasn't an implosion, which gives me a peaceful easy feeling with regard to building the position back up over time.


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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: geokills]
    #28156076 - 01/24/23 06:53 PM (1 year, 4 days ago)

I always tell people keep buying Microsoft until you retire.


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OfflineMushymang
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #28156133 - 01/24/23 07:34 PM (1 year, 4 days ago)

Howdy. I haven’t been following this thread so I’m sorry if I ask something that’s not relevant. Also I’m not sure if this thread is more related to short term trading. I am wondering however what strategies folks use for long term investing. I have read a few books but always come back confused about what to do. For instance, I really like the Martin Zweig approach in Winning on Wall St because it uses factors such as the fed rate to decide when to be invested vs not (using the modern equivalent of a QQQ I think). Then the Minnervini approach is also intriguing. Etc etc. What do people recommend for things like IRAs where you can pick stocks? Also what do people here recommend when you only have a basket of investments such as that in a Fidelity 401k? For the later I moved funds to stable value when the VIX went below 20 (around Dec 1); I was waiting to buy back (although I don’t know which fund) once there was a VIX spike.  Thoughts on this mishmash of a question?


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Mushymang] * 1
    #28156400 - 01/24/23 11:41 PM (1 year, 4 days ago)

Quote:

Mushymang said:
Howdy. I haven’t been following this thread so I’m sorry if I ask something that’s not relevant. Also I’m not sure if this thread is more related to short term trading. I am wondering however what strategies folks use for long term investing. I have read a few books but always come back confused about what to do. For instance, I really like the Martin Zweig approach in Winning on Wall St because it uses factors such as the fed rate to decide when to be invested vs not (using the modern equivalent of a QQQ I think). Then the Minnervini approach is also intriguing. Etc etc. What do people recommend for things like IRAs where you can pick stocks? Also what do people here recommend when you only have a basket of investments such as that in a Fidelity 401k? For the later I moved funds to stable value when the VIX went below 20 (around Dec 1); I was waiting to buy back (although I don’t know which fund) once there was a VIX spike.  Thoughts on this mishmash of a question?




There’s really no one-size-fits-all for investing and so much is going to depend on things like how much time and energy you want to spend on monitoring macro economic indicators and trends, what your goals and risk tolerance is, how much you have to invest, etc. I think if you’re going the route of just playing the overall market with stuff like DOW and S&P ETFs, simple is better.  DCA strategies still work well and you can increase your pace of DCA into positions and taking profits the more confident you are on your read on the overall market. This can be as simple as just setting aside a certain amount each month to put into a nice stable diversified ETF and simultaneously keeping a little cash to double up your buying when the charts are telling you that things are sold off. As time goes on you can add more factors to your decision making that you think are relevant, maybe it’s long tern technical indicators like monthly EMAs, maybe it’s interest rates, trendlines and support levels, VIX.. over time you can back test these things and decide how valuable they are to your decision making.
As far as individual stock picking goes, imo it’s tough but it can be pretty lucrative. Geo will probably have a lot of ideas for you on that.  My thoughts on that are to follow sector trends and pick companies that are in sectors you believe in that are strong financially and are within your price range. You might check out concepts like sector momentum, sector cycles, and piston trades. The idea here is to get a feel of the market environment so you’re not just falling in love with a company and hoping for the best. The other necessity for individual stock picking is at least having a basic understanding of fundamentals like P/E ratios, EPS, stuff like that. This is especially true if you’re venturing into more speculative mid and small cap companies.
And finally, I think there’s a lot to be learned from shorter term trading strategies that you can translate to multi-year investment strategies..things like having a trade plan and knowing your risk levels and take profit levels is very valuable.


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OfflineMushymang
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: high_desert]
    #28156617 - 01/25/23 07:55 AM (1 year, 3 days ago)

Thank you so much. Do you if sharing favorite books recs that you think would be helpful? I should probably stay with the DCA strategy, but it just seems like with a little more work that drawdowns can be protected somewhat. It would be great if that’s possible in my retirement accts as well as my non retirement acct. Unfortunately I got burned by getting into some of the tech high flyers post Covid (SNOW, DDOG, etc).  I watched my IRA double in value just to lose all of my gains within months. Quite disheartening.


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Mushymang]
    #28156789 - 01/25/23 10:31 AM (1 year, 3 days ago)

Quote:

Mushymang said:
Thank you so much. Do you if sharing favorite books recs that you think would be helpful? I should probably stay with the DCA strategy, but it just seems like with a little more work that drawdowns can be protected somewhat. It would be great if that’s possible in my retirement accts as well as my non retirement acct. Unfortunately I got burned by getting into some of the tech high flyers post Covid (SNOW, DDOG, etc).  I watched my IRA double in value just to lose all of my gains within months. Quite disheartening.




Yeah profit taking is so important especially for individual stocks. Don't feel bad about this because I think we are all conditioned to have this mentality of home run style investing when really it's always been base hits that pay and this is especially true for those of us not in the top percent of wealth. Difficulty taking profits and cutting losses are things that everyone experiences in the markets.
There's different ways to approach profit taking too. You can simply say, ok, I'm going to take profit at this certain price by selling some or all of it..but you could also say 'I'm going to let it run and if it retreats to this certain price then I'll sell some or all of it.' Of course you can move that sell price up as the stock moves up creating what we call a trailing stop.

But yeah you can protect from drawdowns just by selling when the market is really overheated or by accumulating some cash to add to your averaging when there's opportunities. Retirement accounts aren't really my forte because I'm broke living in ghetto hell, but yeah, I know that even in some 401ks you can do this, I changed my allocation profile to 90% bonds when the SPY was topping out this last run, essentially taking profits within my 401. My signal to do this was just prolonged higher volatility and a great return on that year that I didn't feel like leaving exposed.

As far as books go, I don't really have any recommendations, maybe Geo has some good ones for you. I think for an investor it's probably best to first get any boring book on basic fundamental analysis. Getting into the company's financials is not sexy but it's helpful. I'd get into the habit of checking things like P/E, Forward P/E and EPS whenever you're considering a single stock..it can help you not only choose stocks but also set your expectations appropriately so that you're taking profit more aggressively on stocks that might be considered overvalued and first to give up huge gains in a slower market.
Technical analysis and chart reading, I'd be really careful who you take your advice from on that. I'm a firm believer in simple is best and things like moving averages, trendlines, support and resistance are great things to know. Not a huge fan of complicated multi indicator systems or the latest magic indicator. If this doesn't make sense to you now it might somewhere down the road.


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: high_desert]
    #28156811 - 01/25/23 10:45 AM (1 year, 3 days ago)

Still waiting for those interesting IPOs to drop. So far last couple weeks we had yet another a meh biotech and today we had yet another a meh Chinese education stock. Both look pretty dismal


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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: high_desert]
    #28156829 - 01/25/23 10:54 AM (1 year, 3 days ago)

:poop:


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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #28156836 - 01/25/23 10:56 AM (1 year, 3 days ago)

You seem to know alot about the Chinese markets what's the with the whole mortgage and tech meltdown how deep will it go?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
    #28156844 - 01/25/23 11:02 AM (1 year, 3 days ago)

If you're reading Mark Minnervini's stuff, you're on a good track.  I'd also recommend John Bollinger's Bollinger on Bollinger Bands.  I've also been a subscriber over at StockMarketMentor.com since nearly their inception, and have attended a couple of the live seminars as well.  There's a wealth of knowledge buried in that website, a relatively active trading forum, daily video strategy sessions and occasional live sessions that will help keep you in sync with the market's overall dynamics.

On to your specific questions... for a "set and forget" long term investing approach, hands down an S&P index fund (SPY) is all you need; Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund (VITSX) is an acceptable alternative.  These will keep you apace with the aggregate market, which is statistically very difficult for most traders to beat over the long term.  In other words, if you don't really enjoy developing your own trading strategy and/or you can't effectively manage your emotions during periods of time where the market moves against you (and it definitely will!), there is nothing wrong with buying an index fund to comprise your complete stock market exposure.

If you do want to venture into picking your own issues for long term holding, I would still suggest holding a base amount of your portfolio in the SPY as your core position, and substituting it with specific issues when the opportunities best present themselves.  Once your individual trade has outperformed and you trim it back, throw those proceeds right back into SPY to maintain pace with the market.  This way you won't feel pressured to constantly be picking stocks, as you will always have some diversified market exposure.  It will also very likely clearly exhibit how difficult it is to beat the market, as you will likely watch your individual holdings fluctuate around a bit, while the steady pace of the SPY, over time, just keeps working without stress or active management.

So about picking individual issues, for me there are two primary methods.

The first, more conservative method, is to find mid to large, cash-flow positive companies that pay dividends.  This would be something like Chevron (CVX), an integrated oil company that more or less prints money, and returns it to shareholders via a dividend.  The dividend makes it easy to hold for two reasons; it throws off income, and it cushions drawdowns in the share price, as the dividend yield increases when share price falls, working to attract buyers which in turn works to insulate the stock from crashing entirely.  Utilities and real estate investment trusts can be a good adjunct to this cohort of high yielding, relatively stable long term holdings.  If you don't want to stock pick, you can look toward the S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which will be less volatile, but also a lower yield than if you hunt down a handful of high yielders yourself, and have the discipline to add to them during periods of market duress, when you can lock in the highest yields.

The second, more aggressive method, is to find companies operating in sectors with secular uptrends that carry high growth rates.  Investors always pay up for the prospect of accelerating growth.  This is how a company that may report something like making $5 billion dollars vs $4 billion last year, ends up getting punished by investors, because the investors were expecting it to make $6 billion.  So even though the company is still technically growing, the growth rate is decelerating.  Momentum/hot money hates decelerating growth, so you do have to be more hands on if you're going to invest in high growth companies.  They offer a higher potential reward, but this naturally comes at the corresponding cost of a higher risk for loss when the tide turns.  Companies in this cohort have historically included the titans of today's market (e.g. AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, et al).  If you want to find the up and comers, well, that's tricky, but you can start by looking at things the IBD50, an index put together by Investors Business Daily, or learning to use scanning tools (link) to search for stocks with specific attributes that fit your profile.

Good luck, and feel free to ask questions or share your thoughts here.  Remember, no trader is going to hit a home run every day (or even every year!), every trader is going to get it wrong, and often.  With this in mind, learning how to contain losses if of paramount importance.  This involves identifying low risk entries whereby you contain your risk using a combination of appropriately placed stop loss order below probable support that will automatically take you out of your trade when your original thesis is invalidated, in addition to variable position sizing depending on how good your entry is (i.e. how far away your entry price is from a reliable stop loss level).  Keep in mind, you can actually be WRONG more than 50% of the time, and still make money in the market, if you learn how to contain your risk of loss, while letting your winners run.


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OfflineMushymang
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28156995 - 01/25/23 12:58 PM (1 year, 3 days ago)

Thank you both for your insights. This is all very helpful and gives me a great place to start. It can all be so overwhelming. I’m sure I’ll have many more questions for you!


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #28157475 - 01/25/23 06:58 PM (1 year, 3 days ago)

Quote:

CHeifM4sterDiezL said:
You seem to know alot about the Chinese markets what's the with the whole mortgage and tech meltdown how deep will it go?




It's a weird dynamic because the real estate issue there is really nuts when you really look into it and looks like a house of cards. Seeing the dozens of gigantic empty apartment buildings and tofu dregs and learning about the ridiculous loan and building cycle that inflates RE there is pretty alarming. But at the same time the CCP can and will do anything it pleases to prop up the economy and obfuscate any sort of negative information. They're butchers and will supress panics and steal anything by any means necessary.
For my purposes as a LF day trader I know that Chinese ADRs are manipulated af..zero trust. I think that puts and shorts on these shitpiles when they were super inflated was the play of the century and this pump and crash can happen again because wall street loves to let these floaters get ridiculously overinflated as long as the government lets them.


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: high_desert]
    #28157591 - 01/25/23 08:01 PM (1 year, 3 days ago)

Yeah buddy, tsla hitting that 150+, I don't think it's done yet either


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Offlinehigh_desert
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Enkidu]
    #28157737 - 01/25/23 10:51 PM (1 year, 3 days ago)

CLF and X holding trendline..another rally?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
    #28157972 - 01/26/23 07:39 AM (1 year, 2 days ago)

The bulls are in control, that's for sure.  I can't buy into a gap opening like this, not right at the open anyway, and I surely didn't expect us to move through the S&P's 200 day this quickly.  I sure wish I had been a bit more aggressive on my desire to involve myself in a more meaningful way with SHOP and NVDA.  I did score some income by selling puts on SHOP, but it was paltry in comparison to the ~25% return the stock has printed over the last 5 days.  NVDA likewise a powerhouse, just blasting through its 200 day, and up 20% in just 4 trading days (and 44% over the last month!).

NVDA zoomed out to a weekly is showing a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that is crossing the neckline as I speak.  The measured move off the pattern would indicate a price target in excess of $265+, which is another ~33% gain if realized.  I'll be watching for this one to come back in and test the neckline ~$180-$185 and if it looks to be bouncing, I will finally take a bite.  Unless that were to happen while I'm on the slopes Feb 5 - 11, as I don't expect to be trading that week.

Let's see if all these gaps hold...


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28157978 - 01/26/23 07:44 AM (1 year, 2 days ago)

Bought a TSLA Feb $160 put on the move below VWAP.  If we break the first 15 minute low ~$157, I'll add another couple.  Stop at high of day.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28157993 - 01/26/23 07:56 AM (1 year, 2 days ago)

Added to TSLA short, 2nd 15 minute candle rejected @ VWAP, new low of day.  Stop moved down to VWAP @ $158.60 to mitigate loss due to increasing position size.  So far so good!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28158012 - 01/26/23 08:19 AM (1 year, 2 days ago)

Well, it was a nice regression trade, for a little while. TSLA just moved back above VWAP and I got taken out at $157.98 for a wash. Always ratcheting down my stops on short-term trades as soon as the position is working, and so if I'm short intraday, I'm not going to be sticking around once the issue is back above VWAP.  It was worth a shot, and I'm no worse for wear on account of taking the chance.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28158159 - 01/26/23 10:56 AM (1 year, 2 days ago)

Fairly directionless overall in the market today, but the fact that the SPY is back above VWAP and, in particular NVDA filled its gap and is starting to move higher, has compelled me to initiate a position on NVDA.  Small size, a single Feb $195 call.  The 8 day EMA (essentially yesterday's low of $185.80) has to hold for me to maintain this position.  If we trade sideways long enough, or if I'm stopped out of this position and we see a deer pullback, I will look to add more exposure on a longer dated contract.

I feel a little stupid because I had an order for this $195 call @ $9 this morning, that I pulled off as the market appeared to deteriorate.  The contract ended up trading barely below $9 on the day, so that would have been a great fill, but instead, I waited for support to manifest more clearly and now I've paid up to the mid-point of the day @ $11 on the contract.  I just had to scratch the itch here.  That inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart is too juicy to ignore, and semiconductors in general have been leading.

SHOP still walking higher ABOVE its bollinger band is also rather frustrating.  I don't want to chase it, but they just announced some big increases to their pricing plans (~30%), and I'm pretty sure practically no one who has setup a Shopify store is going to try to move to an alternative on account of it.  The Shroomery's Swag.Haus runs on it, and we won't be switching it up.  The price hike doesn't go into effect for 3 months on existing accounts, so that portends a pretty big earnings increase two quarterly reports down the line.  Thus, I don't think I really need to chase it here, but I do want to get it on the books at some point soon.


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Edited by geokills (01/26/23 11:00 AM)


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