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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: geokills]
    #9892550 - 03/01/09 07:51 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Powder dry on the sidelines?

:evil:

I think you're mixing your metaphors.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: geokills]
    #9897113 - 03/02/09 02:44 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Ummm, Geo, I don't mean to doubt you or anything but how the hell did you make 24% since nov? All except about two of your stocks are lower now than then and all are down for the day. Do you mean you added more to your portfolio? That's one way to make it go up. I just put another 50k in my account. I'll be able to spend it tomorrow but I'm down since nov. I was up until last week. That's what I was asking about, the last week's downturn. I made my profit by playing the ups and downs but got wiped out. I'm down over 5k right now but I'm not worried. A few years from now we will look good those who invested at this time.

I have less than half my account in stock, the rest in cash so I didn't rush in. It's a good thing I didn't because it would have taken longer to get into profit territory.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 2, 2009 - KMP, NAT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9898059 - 03/02/09 05:04 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

My 24% statistic was based on the intraday low on November 20th.  More practically, I should have stated 15 - 20% relative outperformance.  However, it wasn't so much that I made that money, but rather that I didn't lose as much during the recent spike down.  This was accomplished by selling shares into strength and sitting on a lot more cash during the recent spike down, as well as making good use of the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) fund, in addition to some individual shorts on companies like Caterpillar (CAT).  I simply didn't have as much money in play during the recent leg down as I did in November, so on a relative basis, my portfolio is valued significantly higher than it was on the previous low.  Again, it's not that I made that money, it's just that I did a better job of preserving the capital I ended up with after we bounced off of the November low.

On that note, I am really starting to stick my neck out and did some more buying today.  I WOULD NOT recommend that people invest as aggressively as I have been doing here over the past couple of weeks, but since I am young and can afford to lose some money, I am going to take on a lot of risk by using my available cash to buy companies that I believe can weather this storm.  Of course, on any strength I will quickly be trimming my positions back down to a more manageable size and replenishing my cash position.

  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) - Bought 25 shares @ $44

    This is a limited partnership that distributes the majority of its profits directly to shareholders and thereby gains tax advantages while providing income to shareholders.  The company currently yields close to 10% annually, and derives its income primarily from the transmission of natural gas through its pipelines.  It is not sensitive to the underlying commodity value of natural gas, only the volume of gas transported through its network.  Because volume demands are unlikely to change significantly, I feel that this is a darn safe investment for this volatile environment and am happy to make this my third largest position.


  • Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT) - Bought 100 shares @ $23.75

    These guys are another high yield play, arguably the most stable water transportation (tanker) company in the world.  They have a good balance sheet and shares have been pounded down relentlessly.  I am "renting" this one as a speculative position that should go up more than the aggregate market should we see a relief rally in the near future, at which point I intend to flip these shares.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/2/2009:
  • 16.2% Cash
  • 12.0% Altria (MO)
  • 9.9% WalMart (WMT)
  • 9.1% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.4% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.3% Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
  • 4.2% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.1% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.0% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.6% Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ)
  • 3.6% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.6% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.4% General Electric (GE)
  • 3.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 3.2% Ultra S&P500 (SSO)
  • 1.9% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 1.9% BP plc (BP)
  • 1.6% JPMorgan (JPM)


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2009 - KMP, NAT [Re: geokills]
    #9898591 - 03/02/09 06:20 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

OK, I take it you mean you lost money but not as much as you would have. Hey, my portfolio shed over 6k in the last week. I guess you'd rather not discuss it. We will all be smiling in the end. It's panic time now which means it's time to buy. Always buy when there is blood on the floor and the herd is rushing for the exits.

I'll be following your tips. I already lost $1000 on your advice on ge but I'll get it back. I may pick up some bp since you said it was on your buy more list at 40 and now it's around 35. Maybe some kmp too and a few others. They may go down some more but I predict that within a month we will see the start of a rally. <-- mark my words.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2009 - KMP, NAT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9902717 - 03/03/09 10:46 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Well, I took my own advice and bought a whole bunch of stocks today. Here are my recent acquisitions

GE - bought 2,000 shares @ 6.97
Ebay - bought 1,000 shares @ 10.50
KMP - bought 200 shares @ 41.43
BP - bought 200 shares @ 33.96

I liked what you said about kmp and they are even lower today. BP, you touted a while back and put your own money into it. I may as well get some since it's on sale at over $7 below your buy price.

I think today is fire sale day. Those who kept waiting will be slapping their foreheads and gnashing their teeth. Either that or we all go down with the ship, those who took a chance.

I have more cash in my account and I'm wondering what to do with it. If I'm right, this is the time to strike.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2009 - KMP, NAT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9902956 - 03/03/09 11:38 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

I just bought another 1000 ge. In for a penny, in for a pound.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflineArose Chaos
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2009 - KMP, NAT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9906703 - 03/03/09 08:55 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

just a question, I see most of you invest a lot of money in stocks...
I have like 700 bux to work with and that seems minimal compared to your holdings, is this bad?
should I wait till I have more money saved before investng in stocks?
It seems stupid due to the fact that theres a $7 commision fee...


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"There is nofhing noble in being superior to your fellow man;
true nobility is being superior to your former self" -Hemingway


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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2009 - KMP, NAT [Re: Arose Chaos]
    #9907750 - 03/03/09 11:22 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

I'd say get enough money for a margin account, which is like 3000 bucks :shrug:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 3 & 4, 2009 - BP, VZ, NAT, PWR, GE [Re: Arose Chaos]
    #9909921 - 03/04/09 11:51 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

arosechaos:

should I wait till I have more money saved before investng in stocks?



Please read through the [first post] in this thread.  With only $700, I would suggest investing in something like an S&P500 index fund (or the Vanguard 500 - VFINX).  This will allow you a diversified portfolio that will capture all the power of the market.  Individual stock picking with such a small amount of capital is very risky.  If you can tolerate a lot of risk (i.e. you don't mind losing that $700 entirely), then go ahead and shoot for the moon.  I am more conservative and would not take that approach myself, but that's not to say that you can't be successful doing just that!

I will put my foot down against the approach that it seems Ferris has advocated, which is to use margin debt to finance your trading in order to initiate larger transactions.  Particularly in this market, you don't want to leverage yourself since you could quickly lose all your money and STILL end up owing your broker for the margin debt you used on top of all the money you lost.  Margin is a risky proposition.  The broker has the right to force a sale on the shares that you have bought on margin (for example if they drop enough that the broker feels you are at risk of being unable to pay them back).  This will prevent you from being able to ride out the wild volatility (ups and downs) that the current market has presented us, and is therefore extremely risky.

  • A quick note that I added 30 shares of BP yesterday at $33.90.  I also added some VZ @ $27.00 to my retirement portfolio.  I am presently holding all of my positions as I believe that our extremely oversold position in the aggregate market can lend support to continued strength for at least a few days. 

  • But with my cash position down to 14%, I will be looking for opportunities to trim positions.  One of the first to go may very well be my position in Nordic American Tanker (NAT) that I initiated a few days ago, which is up over 10% so far today.  I may also sell some Quanta Services (PWR), as the wind power plan seems to be dead for the moment, and even though this company is benefitting from new electrical grid contracts in the north east, I am worried that without dividend support the stock could fall back down to $16 on market weakness, at which point I would be interested in buying again.

  • General Electric (GE) is such a stinker, but it's such a small position (less than 3% of the overall value of my portfolio) that I will ride it out for a little while longer.  I have a feeling that today could be short trap... luring in the short sellers with no real news out on the stock, which in turn could cause a violent snap-back on any minute piece of positive news that would lead to massive short covering in the stock.  I wish I were up at the open today to catch the sharp selloff in the shareprice... but since I missed that, I am placing a bid for 200 shares at $6.33 in efforts to lower my basis for a quick flip on any short covering that may occur in the days ahead.  For full disclosure, GE still holds a very sick financial division and this is the second time that I have been dead wrong on the trade here.

    Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me.  :facepalm:


Nevertheless, the action today is encouraging.  I won't be doing much buying on a day like today, but am happy to see such positive breadth with the exception of the banking sector.  The fact that there is still a wall of worry surrounding the banks is keeping the put/call ratio high, which may ironically add fuel to the potential for a short-term rally (as bearish sentiment is a contrarian indicator that can lead to short covering on the slightest pieces of good news).  Ultimately however, the banks will need to participate in order to support a lasting rally. 

I am also encouraged by Doug Kass coming out on Monday with a bold call that this week would result in a temporary bottom in the market for the remainder of 2009 (and today reiterating that "Gun to my head, yesterday was the market bottom.").  Realizing that there are talking heads everyday calling for a bottom, I don't place too much trust in these radical calls.  But I have to recognize that this is the first time that Kass has made a call for an intermediate-term bottom.  2007 saw Kass make a similar contrarian call to SHORT the market in the face of widespread optimism, people thought he was crazy, but he turned out to be right with impeccable timing.  I have been watching Kass and reading his daily blog closely, and his level of experience and understanding of the market is exceptional.  Put plainly, I trust that he knows what he's doing... and while everyone is entitled to make mistakes, I do have to give him some benefit of the doubt given his rock solid track record.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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An intermediate-term market bottom for 2009? [Re: geokills]
    #9909951 - 03/04/09 11:57 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

More from Kass & Cramer (follow embedded links for video of Kass on Kudlow & Company):

Quote:

Kass: Bottoms Up, Mr. Market
By Doug Kass

RealMoney Silver Contributor
3/3/2009 11:59 AM EST 

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 3 at 8:03 a.m. EST.

For the first time ever, I spent nearly a full hour with my favorite host, Sir Larry Kudlow, on CNBC's "The Kudlow Report" last night.

From my perch, the feature of the show was my call that the U.S. stock market could make a 2009 low this week, a very tough call but a position that I have been edging toward over the past several days.

The lion's share of the last segment of "The Kudlow Report" was devoted to my analysis of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) , and my market bottom call is made near the end of the segment.

My contention, as discussed on last night's show, is that the serious problems have been more than fully discounted in the world's equity markets. Moreover, while many have grown increasingly impatient with the new Administration's piecemeal strategy toward addressing the banking industry's toxic assets, a cohesive deal, under the leadership of Lawrence Summers, will soon be forthcoming and will be effective.

The investment pyramid consists of the three angles of fundamentals, sentiment and valuation. I made this market bottom call based on my expectation of an early 2010 stabilization in the economy (making the 27-month recession the second-longest in history) coupled with an extreme sentiment and valuation swing. (As Dennis Gartman is fond of saying, sentiment and valuation have moved from the top left of the chart to the bottom right of the chart in an historic fashion.)

I am fully cognizant of the magnitude of our economic and credit challenges and that the future is not what it used to be. Indeed, my expectation of The Great Decession, which is somewhere between a garden variety recession and The Great Depression, remains intact and is my baseline expectation.

The difficult fundamental backdrop and rapidly descending stock prices have resulted in a particularly volatile period.

I am also fully aware that most forecasts (of a stock and economic kind), especially at inflection points, are inaccurate or difficult to time, and I know that I am catching a falling knife, which is often an expensive and painful proposition.

Two to three years ago, I had a variant view, and I made a bearish call on equities at a time when (prima facie) all appeared healthy. While I clearly saw the developing cracks in the foundations of credit, in the economy and in the world's stock markets, the media, investment strategists, mutual fund and hedge fund managers wore rose-colored glasses as they were almost universally bullish. Today, most of the same group, many of whom have been destroyed by the bear market, can see no light at the end of the tunnel, and frankly, this bolsters my confidence in the call.

It is now time for me to adopt another variant view by espousing a more bullish opinion on the U.S. stock market. 


Doug's Call Is Bold -- and I Won't Disagree
By Jim Cramer

RealMoney Columnist
3/4/2009 9:12 AM EST 

I am not willing to take the other side of the trade of Doug Kass' bold call that this might be the bottom for the year. I think there are some real positives in the air that could gel that no one believes in.

For example, the TALF. If I were still at my hedge fund, I would love to take $100 million and get $1 billion from the Fed to go buy commercial mortgage-backed securities of fully leased office buildings. I will take that risk. I don't know if I am willing to buy credit card debt, but if I am stopped out on losses it might be worth a try. Either way, I would be worried that others in the hedge fund business would take advantage of the program and I wouldn't. They would beat me. That alone makes me feel that Doug might be on to something.

Doug's got the Baltic Freight Index, the persistent bid under oil, and the decline in copper inventories. These are all signs that China's in this market, and the stimulus package in China -- the second one, on top of the first -- shows that China means business. That's why Joy Global (JOYG) may not be a disaster, because that's coal to China. Same with Bucyrus (BUCY) , so don't forget it. Joy Global has negative cash flow, so it might just be a trade.

Doug's also got the heat of the market on Obama now. Perhaps yesterday was pivotal when [Obama] recognized you cannot simply ignore the market. When you can't ignore it, that means you begin to think about the impact of your actions, actions like tinkering with the mortgage deduction -- something that hobbles whatever housing program he's unveiling today.

It also means that we might be on the verge, at last, of a bank plan, something that has killed us. I have a very rough time with Tim Geithner, but if he offers something that makes things clear, we could have that uncertainty removed.

Doug's got psychology on his side, with 11 out of 12 days down. He's also got something else on his side: the incredible dividend yields on the "safe" dividend yielders, not the industrials. There are too many Pepsis (PEP) and Verizons (VZ) and Honeywells (HON) out there not to tempt people.

Finally, the U.S. Steel (X) indicator. U.S. Steel was the barometer in the Great Depression/Great Crash -- a stock that declined from the $200s to the $20s in a couple of years' time. Now it has gone from $196 to $17 in a much shorter period.

Doug's got a coiled spring going for him. The oscillator is out-of-control perfect for a ramp. He's not going to meet any resistance from this quarter.

It's a big call.

It is being made here.

It should be heeded.




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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: An intermediate-term market bottom for 2009? [Re: geokills]
    #9910031 - 03/04/09 12:08 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

And a little more from Doug's personal trading diary, posted this morning:
Quote:

Irrational Non-Exuberance?

"But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? ... We, as central bankers, need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs and price stability."

-- Alan Greenspan, "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society," before the American Enterprise Institute at the Washington Hilton Hotel Dec. 5, 1996

Back in late 1996, Alan Greenspan uttered his most famous words during his tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman. (On page 176 of his 2007 autobiography, The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World, Greenspan says, "The concept of irrational exuberance came to me in the bathtub one morning as I was writing a speech.")

Even though Greenspan's remarks were casually tossed out in the middle of a dinner speech, the stock markets around the world had a strong and negative reaction to his seemingly harmless question asked above. The U.S., Tokyo and Hong Kong markets dropped by 3%, an even greater response occurred in the Frankfurt and London markets, which declined by over 4% each.

Though Greenspan never again uttered the phrase "irrational exuberance" in any public venue, those two colorful words became the most enduring and famous quotation during his lengthy position as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and they have since acquired a special meaning relating to the mind-set that occurs during speculative bubbles.

On Dec. 5, 1996, at the time of Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at approximately 6,450, within 4% of the DJIA's 6,700 closing level last evening.

I am not unaware of the challenges and the current paralysis in the world's credit, economic and stock markets; I still see the Great Decession, something between a garden variety recession and The Great Depression.

As I have written recently, I feel that I was at the forefront of warning investors about the weakening foundation and false hopes of growth in the pages of RealMoney Silver, in Barron's and on CNBC. Frankly, paying attention to those warnings would have successfully protected many investors from the irrational exuberance that most strategists and money managers had expressed in their bullishly tilted portfolios over the course of the past two years.

By contrast, today the world economy and its markets are experiencing a profound degree of pessimism and seem to reflect an almost polar opposite set of sentiment and valuation conditions that Greenspan thought existed over 12 years ago. And many of the same optimists with whom I debated in 2006 and 2007 now see no end in sight to the economic and market downturn; they are the new Cassandras.

Putting aside sentiment and valuation, however, one could begin to argue that we are now seeing irrational non-exuberance, considering (among other things) the accumulated build-up in retained capital and the aggregate world economic growth, which was stimulated in part by emerging regional economies, in the interim interval.

And in the outgrowth of that pessimism lies opportunity.

In a recent column, I highlighted a checklist and a number of conditions that could contribute to a more sanguine economic and market outlook. I see both the answers to my checklist and to the set of conditions enumerated as likely to be materially moving toward a more positive direction in the months ahead as massive policy initiatives begin to have a salutary effect.

And on Monday night's "The Kudlow Report" followed by Tuesday morning's opening missive, I documented additional reasons why I believe that the market may trace out a 2009 bottom out this week and why a rally is ahead.

Considering the current level of compressed stock prices, it should be noted that a positive reallocation of capital away from fixed income and into the equity market by investors (particularly of a pension kind) could hold the promise for a surprisingly sharp move higher and then possibly some base-building for further gains later on in the year.

Considering the backdrop of horrible fundamental news, many think my bottom call is, well, laughable. For example, I was comforted by the results of yesterday's StockTwits poll, which provided investors' opinions to my more upbeat view and resulted in a large percentage of the respondents disagreeing with me. As well, the blogosphere is almost in complete unanimity that my bottom call is absurd. Maybe that's another good sign!

In summary, my market bottom expectation is not a capricious call; I have given this a lot of thought, and I have hopefully documented the basis for my renewed optimism in the articles above.

It is now time to be greedy when others are fearful and irrationally non-exuberant.


Data From Dwyer

These important observations are just in from my pal and hard-working FTN strategist Tony Dwyer:

Our "stats dude" was hard at work and found a market stat that we are compelled to send you given the degree of oversold using our trusty 14-week stochastic indicator ... (seen below).

Below are the prior occurrences since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 dropped for five straight days to a new yearly low and lost 5% during the five days, with the fifth day showing the smallest loss of the five:
  • Dec. 15, 1930 -- one day from an intermediate-term low
  • May 19, 1931 -- 11 days from an intermediate-term low
  • Dec. 12, 1931 -- three days from multi-week rally
  • Feb. 10, 1932 -- marked the low before multi-week rally
  • Oct. 22, 1957 -- bear market low
  • June 26, 1962 -- bear market low
  • Aug. 15, 1974 -- failure
  • Oct. 1, 1974 -- three days before bear market low
  • Aug. 9, 1982 -- three days before bear market low
  • Oct. 8, 2008 -- two days before multi-week rally

    Source: SentimenTrader


Clearly, we are in a unique environment, but this stat reinforces that anything lost from current levels is likely to be made up very quickly, when the market reaches the current degree of oversold using our trusty 14-week stochastic indicator (exhibit No. 1 below). Only four of the occurrences highlighted above (40%) corresponded to the close proximity of a bear market low, but even if a meaningful rally proves temporary given the fundamental backdrop, it will be more than welcome at this point.

We expect that those areas hit the worst in the recent decline should see the best gain and sharpest short-covering. Those include the materials, industrial and health care sectors. Again, we remain fundamentally "out of the way" but do see a strong likelihood in a pause of the selling pressure that can produce a meaningful bounce.

Exhibit No. 1 -- Even in Bear Markets, This Degree of Oversold Suggests a Rally


S&P 500 Weekly Chart
10/99 to Current







You might also want to check out this Bloomberg interview with Steve Leuthold, who manages an all-short fund.


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Re: An intermediate-term market bottom for 2009? [Re: geokills]
    #9910400 - 03/04/09 01:18 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

The way I look at it is every recession and depression has been followed by a recovery and going to new heights. Can anyone give me an example of a time in which that didn't happen? I mean even going back 100 years or more. If you need your money back in a few weeks or months, you may not be happy. If you are in for the long term, you will be. In the first great depression, unemployment was at 25%. Now it's at 8% or so.

I bought heavily because the herd was heading for the exits. Always do the opposite of the herd. If I can't make money buying at or near the lows for this century, then I will never make any money on the market.

Of my purchases yesterday, all went up except for ge which is the problem child. It went down a little bit. Geo, I doubt you will get your bid in for no doubt 50 shares or so. I think we have seen the lows already <-- famous last words :smile:

Good luck to all


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 4, 2009 - PWR, JPM [Re: geokills]
    #9911669 - 03/04/09 04:38 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

I am now almost fully invested.  You can read my last several posts in this thread to find out why.

  • I ended up swapping out of Quanta Services (PWR) at $18.20 in order to add to JP Morgan (JPM) with 50 shares @ $19.50.

    I last sold shares in JPM on January 28th when the stock traded at $27.40.  Since Quanta saw strong gains today (8%+) while JPM was down by 8%, I want to capture the strength in PWR and re-allocate the funds to JPM while it's on sale.  JPMorgan is approaching its 52-week low, but the bank is well capitalized and the dividend cut last week has strengthened its balance sheet by raising its tangible common equity above the average in the banking sector.  They continue to take share in several of their businesses, are well diversified and trade at 1 times tangible book value.  If we get some sort of modification to the Mark-to-Market accounting rules, the banking sector should take off and I think JPM is the best deposit bank to own for the long haul (the best non-deposit bank would be Goldman Sachs - GS).


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/4/2009:
  • 14.4% Cash
  • 11.8% Altria (MO)
  • 9.8% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.9% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.4% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.6% Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
  • 4.6% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.3% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.0% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.8% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.8% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.7% Powershares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.6% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.5% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 3.2% Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO)
  • 3.1% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 3.0% General Electric (GE)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for March 4, 2009 - PWR, JPM [Re: geokills]
    #9912614 - 03/04/09 07:36 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

i had 2 grand i put in to ge, cat, and ebay. (and i bought on margin)

now its about 700...

im holding on for the long long run.

i think that we are headed up.

i mean, hell WE'RE america for fucks sake.

china cant realistically overtake us because they own our debt, what are they going to do, devalue our currency, and then de value their holdings? we have them by the balls essentially.

If i had some more cash, i would put it into the market, albeit into different stocks.

I should also mention that my mineral properties, are currently being brokered to the Asians. And I am really liking the rebounds that we saw today in CLF and BHP, and the news on Copper Stockpiles going low, as well as the news on the Chinese issuing another stimulus package.


--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


Edited by Capatalistc nomad (03/04/09 07:39 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: geokills]
    #9917280 - 03/05/09 02:39 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

The rubber band continues to stretch...

Fear is growing quite palpable as the market tacks on another day of very steep losses, pushing us to levels not seen since 1996!  While I'm certain that nobody (except for the shorts) are happy about the relentless declines lead today by the financials, there is some silver lining.  For one, sentiment can hardly get any worse, with someone on CNBC noting today that "shorting is a risk-free" proposition.  For another, there is a whisper that much of the selling today was forced due to redemptions from a large mutual fund as well as a not-as-certain hedge fund failure.  Also a glimmer of hope, as Wells Fargo chairman Kovacevich buys 100,000 shares of his company's stock in the open market, along with another whisper that Barclays has upgraded its opinion on GE's bonds.

The biggest problem however remains, the rapidly deteriorating capitalization of our nation's banks.  Though our government has come out to openly state that they are not seeking nationalization, nationalization will be the only option should the stock value behind our banks continue to deteriorate.  Bank stocks are not like other stocks.  Take a drug or a food stock, even if they get hammered, people are still going to take their medicines and eat food to survive, and so ratings agencies that rate the bonds for these companies are unlikely to take action since their underlying business (i.e. cash flow) will not be affected.  Banks however, require confidence and the capital markets to function, so if their stocks get cut in half, their ratings will be reduced and people will not want to do business with them; nor will they be able to tap the capital markets for financing.  This is a very serious problem.

For my part, I must be doing something right.  My portfolio outperformed yesterday on the upside, and even though the S&P gave up 4.25% today, repealing yesterday's gains and then some, my portfolio was only down 1.5% today.  This relative outperformance helps to exhibit the value of a disciplined and diversified investment strategy, which I have been doing my best to employ and document - both for my own evaluation and also to encourage the rest of our members to invest wisely for their future.

Though my swap out of PWR and into JPM yesterday was ill-timed (with JPM giving up nearly 16% today), I have kept my riskier investments among my smallest positions, thereby mitigating my losses.  My three smallest positions include JPM, SSO, & GE, and all of them have been underperforming the market over the past several days (though GE is showing some marginal signs of stabilization here at the $6 level).  On the inverse, my three largest positions (MO, WMT, & KMP) carry strong balance sheets with secure dividends. 

Part of the reason I was able to outperform the market today was thanks to Altria (MO), my largest position up nearly 4% on the day.  They announced plans to pass along new federal taxes (and then some) to their cigarette consumers while also lowering the price on their new smokeless tobacco division in order to spur growth.  Walmart (WMT) ended the day up nearly 3% after handily beating their same-store sales targets and raising their annual dividend by 15%.  Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), while down, still outperformed the aggregate market by over 3% today.  A couple of my other recent purchases such as NAT and BP, are still above my last buy points even though the market as a whole is much lower.  This shows relative strength and is a definite positive in my book.

All in all, I am still quite concerned that we are at levels in the market that do not lend themselves to strong support, that wealth destruction has continued apace by crushing individual retirement plans and home values thereby supporting a negative feedback loop, that our financials are close to de facto nationalization and that our government does not seem to recognize or wish to address the closely intertwined relationship between Wall Street and Main Street.  However, estimates are continuing to come down (which is necessary in order for companies to be able to ultimately beat them), and with such an extreme level of widespread pessimism the rubber band is stretched just about as far as it can go.  I continue to maintain my positions and seek out opportunities to add to high quality dividend paying stocks, and will hopefully look back on these entries with a smile - knowing that I acted in a calculated manner without panic.

On the calendar for tomorrow: February unemployment numbers! :tinfoil:


Edit: For a closer (and concise) look at how well-capitalized banks are appearing insolvent due to Mark-to-Market accounting, take a look at Gary Townsend's piece:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (03/05/09 02:59 PM)


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: geokills]
    #9917944 - 03/05/09 04:04 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

You mentioned that unemployment numbers come out tomorrow, and I listen to Marketplace on NPR every day and they often will tell you the market-driving pieces of data that will be released the next day, such as GPD numbers, inflation, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, etc.

Do you have anything handy that lists the release dates of this information, or at least the important ones?

Thanks in advance...


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9918160 - 03/05/09 04:42 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Those who got in around this time will look like friggin' geniuses in a years time. And in 10 years, they will look like little warren buffets. In the meantime, watch out for those fluctuations.

Japanese gentleman asks his broker "why is my portfolio down today?"
Broker: "It's just fluctuations"
Japanese guy: "fluctuations? well fluc you westerners too!"


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9920084 - 03/05/09 10:08 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
You mentioned that unemployment numbers come out tomorrow, and I listen to Marketplace on NPR every day and they often will tell you the market-driving pieces of data that will be released the next day, such as GPD numbers, inflation, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, etc.

Do you have anything handy that lists the release dates of this information, or at least the important ones?

Thanks in advance...




http://www.forexlive.com/economic-calendar


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9921325 - 03/06/09 05:20 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Perfect, thanks.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2009 - No Action [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9923444 - 03/06/09 02:56 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Yay! I made over 1400 today. Dollars that is, not a percentage of who inows what, not outperform, just a nice little profit. I'm still down from when I got in but not so much. In a month I'll be smiling from ear to ear.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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