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Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers Registered: 03/06/03 Posts: 21,287 Loc: The Ocean of Notions Last seen: 5 months, 23 days |
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Powder dry on the sidelines?
![]() I think you're mixing your metaphors. -------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Ummm, Geo, I don't mean to doubt you or anything but how the hell did you make 24% since nov? All except about two of your stocks are lower now than then and all are down for the day. Do you mean you added more to your portfolio? That's one way to make it go up. I just put another 50k in my account. I'll be able to spend it tomorrow but I'm down since nov. I was up until last week. That's what I was asking about, the last week's downturn. I made my profit by playing the ups and downs but got wiped out. I'm down over 5k right now but I'm not worried. A few years from now we will look good those who invested at this time.
I have less than half my account in stock, the rest in cash so I didn't rush in. It's a good thing I didn't because it would have taken longer to get into profit territory. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 38 minutes |
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My 24% statistic was based on the intraday low on November 20th. More practically, I should have stated 15 - 20% relative outperformance. However, it wasn't so much that I made that money, but rather that I didn't lose as much during the recent spike down. This was accomplished by selling shares into strength and sitting on a lot more cash during the recent spike down, as well as making good use of the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) fund, in addition to some individual shorts on companies like Caterpillar (CAT). I simply didn't have as much money in play during the recent leg down as I did in November, so on a relative basis, my portfolio is valued significantly higher than it was on the previous low. Again, it's not that I made that money, it's just that I did a better job of preserving the capital I ended up with after we bounced off of the November low.
On that note, I am really starting to stick my neck out and did some more buying today. I WOULD NOT recommend that people invest as aggressively as I have been doing here over the past couple of weeks, but since I am young and can afford to lose some money, I am going to take on a lot of risk by using my available cash to buy companies that I believe can weather this storm. Of course, on any strength I will quickly be trimming my positions back down to a more manageable size and replenishing my cash position.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/2/2009:
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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OK, I take it you mean you lost money but not as much as you would have. Hey, my portfolio shed over 6k in the last week. I guess you'd rather not discuss it. We will all be smiling in the end. It's panic time now which means it's time to buy. Always buy when there is blood on the floor and the herd is rushing for the exits.
I'll be following your tips. I already lost $1000 on your advice on ge but I'll get it back. I may pick up some bp since you said it was on your buy more list at 40 and now it's around 35. Maybe some kmp too and a few others. They may go down some more but I predict that within a month we will see the start of a rally. <-- mark my words. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Well, I took my own advice and bought a whole bunch of stocks today. Here are my recent acquisitions
GE - bought 2,000 shares @ 6.97 Ebay - bought 1,000 shares @ 10.50 KMP - bought 200 shares @ 41.43 BP - bought 200 shares @ 33.96 I liked what you said about kmp and they are even lower today. BP, you touted a while back and put your own money into it. I may as well get some since it's on sale at over $7 below your buy price. I think today is fire sale day. Those who kept waiting will be slapping their foreheads and gnashing their teeth. Either that or we all go down with the ship, those who took a chance. I have more cash in my account and I'm wondering what to do with it. If I'm right, this is the time to strike. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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I just bought another 1000 ge. In for a penny, in for a pound.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Simple Man Registered: 08/25/08 Posts: 769 Loc: West Coast Last seen: 4 years, 26 days |
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just a question, I see most of you invest a lot of money in stocks...
I have like 700 bux to work with and that seems minimal compared to your holdings, is this bad? should I wait till I have more money saved before investng in stocks? It seems stupid due to the fact that theres a $7 commision fee... -------------------- <<WOW"There is nofhing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self" -Hemingway
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PsychedelicJourn Registered: 03/12/06 Posts: 11,529 |
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I'd say get enough money for a margin account, which is like 3000 bucks
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 38 minutes |
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Quote: Please read through the [first post] in this thread. With only $700, I would suggest investing in something like an S&P500 index fund (or the Vanguard 500 - VFINX). This will allow you a diversified portfolio that will capture all the power of the market. Individual stock picking with such a small amount of capital is very risky. If you can tolerate a lot of risk (i.e. you don't mind losing that $700 entirely), then go ahead and shoot for the moon. I am more conservative and would not take that approach myself, but that's not to say that you can't be successful doing just that! I will put my foot down against the approach that it seems Ferris has advocated, which is to use margin debt to finance your trading in order to initiate larger transactions. Particularly in this market, you don't want to leverage yourself since you could quickly lose all your money and STILL end up owing your broker for the margin debt you used on top of all the money you lost. Margin is a risky proposition. The broker has the right to force a sale on the shares that you have bought on margin (for example if they drop enough that the broker feels you are at risk of being unable to pay them back). This will prevent you from being able to ride out the wild volatility (ups and downs) that the current market has presented us, and is therefore extremely risky.
Nevertheless, the action today is encouraging. I won't be doing much buying on a day like today, but am happy to see such positive breadth with the exception of the banking sector. The fact that there is still a wall of worry surrounding the banks is keeping the put/call ratio high, which may ironically add fuel to the potential for a short-term rally (as bearish sentiment is a contrarian indicator that can lead to short covering on the slightest pieces of good news). Ultimately however, the banks will need to participate in order to support a lasting rally. I am also encouraged by Doug Kass coming out on Monday with a bold call that this week would result in a temporary bottom in the market for the remainder of 2009 (and today reiterating that "Gun to my head, yesterday was the market bottom."). Realizing that there are talking heads everyday calling for a bottom, I don't place too much trust in these radical calls. But I have to recognize that this is the first time that Kass has made a call for an intermediate-term bottom. 2007 saw Kass make a similar contrarian call to SHORT the market in the face of widespread optimism, people thought he was crazy, but he turned out to be right with impeccable timing. I have been watching Kass and reading his daily blog closely, and his level of experience and understanding of the market is exceptional. Put plainly, I trust that he knows what he's doing... and while everyone is entitled to make mistakes, I do have to give him some benefit of the doubt given his rock solid track record.
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 38 minutes |
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More from Kass & Cramer (follow embedded links for video of Kass on Kudlow & Company):
Quote:
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 38 minutes |
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And a little more from Doug's personal trading diary, posted this morning:
Quote:
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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The way I look at it is every recession and depression has been followed by a recovery and going to new heights. Can anyone give me an example of a time in which that didn't happen? I mean even going back 100 years or more. If you need your money back in a few weeks or months, you may not be happy. If you are in for the long term, you will be. In the first great depression, unemployment was at 25%. Now it's at 8% or so.
I bought heavily because the herd was heading for the exits. Always do the opposite of the herd. If I can't make money buying at or near the lows for this century, then I will never make any money on the market. Of my purchases yesterday, all went up except for ge which is the problem child. It went down a little bit. Geo, I doubt you will get your bid in for no doubt 50 shares or so. I think we have seen the lows already <-- famous last words ![]() Good luck to all -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 38 minutes |
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I am now almost fully invested. You can read my last several posts in this thread to find out why.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/4/2009:
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Knomadic Registered: 06/17/03 Posts: 13,227 Loc: Pongyang, North |
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i had 2 grand i put in to ge, cat, and ebay. (and i bought on margin)
now its about 700... im holding on for the long long run. i think that we are headed up. i mean, hell WE'RE america for fucks sake. china cant realistically overtake us because they own our debt, what are they going to do, devalue our currency, and then de value their holdings? we have them by the balls essentially. If i had some more cash, i would put it into the market, albeit into different stocks. I should also mention that my mineral properties, are currently being brokered to the Asians. And I am really liking the rebounds that we saw today in CLF and BHP, and the news on Copper Stockpiles going low, as well as the news on the Chinese issuing another stimulus package. -------------------- PEACE zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it." Edited by Capatalistc nomad (03/04/09 07:39 PM)
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 38 minutes |
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The rubber band continues to stretch...
Fear is growing quite palpable as the market tacks on another day of very steep losses, pushing us to levels not seen since 1996! While I'm certain that nobody (except for the shorts) are happy about the relentless declines lead today by the financials, there is some silver lining. For one, sentiment can hardly get any worse, with someone on CNBC noting today that "shorting is a risk-free" proposition. For another, there is a whisper that much of the selling today was forced due to redemptions from a large mutual fund as well as a not-as-certain hedge fund failure. Also a glimmer of hope, as Wells Fargo chairman Kovacevich buys 100,000 shares of his company's stock in the open market, along with another whisper that Barclays has upgraded its opinion on GE's bonds. The biggest problem however remains, the rapidly deteriorating capitalization of our nation's banks. Though our government has come out to openly state that they are not seeking nationalization, nationalization will be the only option should the stock value behind our banks continue to deteriorate. Bank stocks are not like other stocks. Take a drug or a food stock, even if they get hammered, people are still going to take their medicines and eat food to survive, and so ratings agencies that rate the bonds for these companies are unlikely to take action since their underlying business (i.e. cash flow) will not be affected. Banks however, require confidence and the capital markets to function, so if their stocks get cut in half, their ratings will be reduced and people will not want to do business with them; nor will they be able to tap the capital markets for financing. This is a very serious problem. For my part, I must be doing something right. My portfolio outperformed yesterday on the upside, and even though the S&P gave up 4.25% today, repealing yesterday's gains and then some, my portfolio was only down 1.5% today. This relative outperformance helps to exhibit the value of a disciplined and diversified investment strategy, which I have been doing my best to employ and document - both for my own evaluation and also to encourage the rest of our members to invest wisely for their future. Though my swap out of PWR and into JPM yesterday was ill-timed (with JPM giving up nearly 16% today), I have kept my riskier investments among my smallest positions, thereby mitigating my losses. My three smallest positions include JPM, SSO, & GE, and all of them have been underperforming the market over the past several days (though GE is showing some marginal signs of stabilization here at the $6 level). On the inverse, my three largest positions (MO, WMT, & KMP) carry strong balance sheets with secure dividends. Part of the reason I was able to outperform the market today was thanks to Altria (MO), my largest position up nearly 4% on the day. They announced plans to pass along new federal taxes (and then some) to their cigarette consumers while also lowering the price on their new smokeless tobacco division in order to spur growth. Walmart (WMT) ended the day up nearly 3% after handily beating their same-store sales targets and raising their annual dividend by 15%. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), while down, still outperformed the aggregate market by over 3% today. A couple of my other recent purchases such as NAT and BP, are still above my last buy points even though the market as a whole is much lower. This shows relative strength and is a definite positive in my book. All in all, I am still quite concerned that we are at levels in the market that do not lend themselves to strong support, that wealth destruction has continued apace by crushing individual retirement plans and home values thereby supporting a negative feedback loop, that our financials are close to de facto nationalization and that our government does not seem to recognize or wish to address the closely intertwined relationship between Wall Street and Main Street. However, estimates are continuing to come down (which is necessary in order for companies to be able to ultimately beat them), and with such an extreme level of widespread pessimism the rubber band is stretched just about as far as it can go. I continue to maintain my positions and seek out opportunities to add to high quality dividend paying stocks, and will hopefully look back on these entries with a smile - knowing that I acted in a calculated manner without panic. On the calendar for tomorrow: February unemployment numbers! Edit: For a closer (and concise) look at how well-capitalized banks are appearing insolvent due to Mark-to-Market accounting, take a look at Gary Townsend's piece: Edited by geokills (03/05/09 02:59 PM)
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Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers Registered: 03/06/03 Posts: 21,287 Loc: The Ocean of Notions Last seen: 5 months, 23 days |
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You mentioned that unemployment numbers come out tomorrow, and I listen to Marketplace on NPR every day and they often will tell you the market-driving pieces of data that will be released the next day, such as GPD numbers, inflation, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, etc.
Do you have anything handy that lists the release dates of this information, or at least the important ones? Thanks in advance... -------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Those who got in around this time will look like friggin' geniuses in a years time. And in 10 years, they will look like little warren buffets. In the meantime, watch out for those fluctuations.
Japanese gentleman asks his broker "why is my portfolio down today?" Broker: "It's just fluctuations" Japanese guy: "fluctuations? well fluc you westerners too!" -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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old hand Registered: 02/26/05 Posts: 3,436 Loc: Wild Blue Yawnde Last seen: 25 days, 10 hours |
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Quote: http://www.forexlive.com/economi
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Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers Registered: 03/06/03 Posts: 21,287 Loc: The Ocean of Notions Last seen: 5 months, 23 days |
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Perfect, thanks.
-------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Yay! I made over 1400 today. Dollars that is, not a percentage of who inows what, not outperform, just a nice little profit. I'm still down from when I got in but not so much. In a month I'll be smiling from ear to ear.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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zippoz
