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Ice9
3X Ban Lotto Champion



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
#28089098 - 12/08/22 05:47 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Alibaba got smacked down by the CCP. Ate a 18B fine in 2021.
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28089127 - 12/08/22 06:01 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Didn't make a post 'cause the market has been ho hum no nothin' land.. TNK was stopped out the same day I entered. Little throwback to the 50 day today, but not enticing. TLRY also in the shit zone. AEHR and SGML are my best trades at the moment, and I'd expect that to continue. You just have to reign in expectations in this kind of market. Stick with the slow grinders that just keep marching higher. Breakouts? Hah! Those days are not these days.
Kind of tempted to take a high flier in a super small tanker, USEA. Came across it during my time watching TNK. It's really thinly traded though, so not worth being aggressive on. But for a small size tanker position, it could be a big winner in the long haul. Looking for ENPH & FLSR to fart around for a week or two and hopefully tighten up into a volatility squeeze at their 50 day, at which point I would start accumulating. SHOP is kinda in the same boat, although under a bit more pressure. Would like to see it consolidate and tighten up the bollinger bands right on the 50 day. Would be nice setups, we'll see if it can happen...
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28089170 - 12/08/22 06:25 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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That USEA looks really interesting.. Beautiful bullish s pattern coming out of IPO..apparently profitable.. 7M float..trading under book value.. Don't see this very often.
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CHeifM4sterDiezL
Chief Globerts

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28089178 - 12/08/22 06:27 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Yeah honestly I just looking at things that are weathering the storm and are going to hold value if things start to really retract. But we've already had so much fat trimmed off during the pandemic. Certainly I think consumer spending will be curbed. I think baba has grown to a relatively solid and robust company certainly but like I said they bribe the wrong people or something idk how it works over there. Realistically I think theyre still a pretty mediocre company and I'm skeptical of thier ability to maintain growth and performance or even a firm market grasp longterm.
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gopher
Coffee Bean Extraordinaire



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28089180 - 12/08/22 06:28 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Pslv continues to rise to new hieghts after dropping a bit in the last few days
I have around 350 in its worth 402, the personal finance canada sub reddit think I should sell Immediately and if I need the money soon put it in a GIC and if I don't buy a eft
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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Hartford
Lawful Good



Registered: 11/27/19
Posts: 1,106
Loc: Tennessee
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28089236 - 12/08/22 07:06 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Alibaba has a funny name and a funny logo. But having bought several quality bulk goods at rock bottom prices from China through their website, I'm convinced that they are well prepared for success. The interface is also well set up.
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28091930 - 12/10/22 02:09 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Lots of pumps on the finviz radar to short this coming week.. Mostly bio and one China pump CJJD that imo probably has a couple more days of frontside to it. Still monitoring GLYC, had one controlled loss earlier in the walk up, hit the biggest red day so far but missed out a lot of those little consolidations that I think were hittable morning patterns. The liquidity still seems surprisingly good from the charts. Just wish I could get a second to breathe from work so I can actually sell some damn shares!
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: high_desert]
#28091956 - 12/10/22 02:22 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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How are we feeling about AAPL AMZN and AMD?
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Hartford
Lawful Good



Registered: 11/27/19
Posts: 1,106
Loc: Tennessee
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28092048 - 12/10/22 03:33 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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People are not reproducing to replacement levels and on top of it are tightening their spending habits to necessities. Goods like apple electronics will go down, Amazon will go down.
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gopher
Coffee Bean Extraordinaire



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28092053 - 12/10/22 03:38 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Canada imports 500k people a year though, lots of replacements here
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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Hartford
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: gopher]
#28092250 - 12/10/22 05:49 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Those people are probably less able to buy luxury goods after the move because their cost of living went up.
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28092369 - 12/10/22 07:06 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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I agree with apple going down but think that amd and amazon are at the bottom. What ever happened with the whole computer chip shortage story?
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Hartford
Lawful Good



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28093076 - 12/11/22 08:53 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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With industry slowing and the government trying to curb inflation, this market seems like the perfect time to learn to short stocks.
I've never shorted stocks. Is there any important piece of advice that you think I should know before I begin shorting things?
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
#28093079 - 12/11/22 08:56 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Hikeadellic said: How are we feeling about AAPL AMZN and AMD?
Tech will rise again as the S&P stabilizes and they streamline to adapt to economic conditions. and I think that semiconductors will become less and less cyclical as time goes on. AMD and NVDA will be hot again.. I'd have no problem DCAing into them if you had the money to do so. I notice SOXL has been really active lately.. I wonder if that's an indication of some accumulation going on. I forgot to keep an eye on it but I probably would have gotten a set under 9.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic] 1
#28093123 - 12/11/22 09:43 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Hartford said: I've never shorted stocks. Is there any important piece of advice that you think I should know before I begin shorting things?
Only accept the best entries, where a stock that has broken down begins to roll over after a clear throwback into the prior support zone now turned to resistance. Be ruthless with your stops, putting one in place at a risk appropriate level as soon as the trade is on, and tightening it up and/or implementing a ladder of partial position stops as the trade works in your favor. The market has an underlying bid. Moves to the upside are potentially infinite, moves to the bottom are capped at 100%. If you employ short strategies, understand that the deck is stacked against you and you therefore need to be air tight on adhering to risk management.
Quote:
Hikeadellic said: How are we feeling about AAPL AMZN and AMD?
Old leadership, once the market dynamics change in a meaningful way, generally struggle to regain that leadership position. That said, I would take AAPL first, AMD next and would have a hard time taking AMZN at all.
AAPL is a premiere brand with a still growing ecosystem, very loyal customers, the cash cow that is iPhone and incredible amounts of cash on hand to continue developing. Seemingly little (yet significant things) such as pushing openly for personal security (i.e. they expect to release the option for private key encryption on all iCloud services that don't require shared data to function by 2023), despite pushback from government, will continue to please their fans.
AMD is a dominant chip maker, but their graphics division has continued to lose significant ground to competitor NVDA. Competition from alternative majors such as INTL and companies turning inward to create their own chips (AAPL) also puts a bit of a lid on how much this $110B behemoth can actually grow at this point.
While AMZN still has potential growth ahead of it, the bottom line is that outside of their cloud AWS platform, the business hemorrhages money. I understand their grand vision to unify services and become the global corporation that can service all of humanity's practical needs, but their attempts to achieve this involve spending (and losing) insane amounts of money, and with more bloat and complexity that the organization must manage as it reaches across commerce from delivery to grocery to media to medicine; the more difficult it becomes to adeptly adjust to changing market dynamics. AMZN was and maybe still is a great story, but outside of AWS, which is seeing good competition from MSFT, IMB, GOOGL and BABA amongst others, it really feels like its best growth is behind it.
Now keep in mind, I'm not saying that AMZN or AMD won't sport a higher share price than they do today, and there may very well be some good trades in store with those names. But I'm not confident that they will be our future leadership plays, and therefore, that your money could well perform more efficiently in what may become the new market leaders. Stay tuned...
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high_desert
Pipe and Paper Afternoon



Registered: 10/25/16
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28093364 - 12/11/22 01:03 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Only accept the best entries, where a stock that has broken down begins to roll over after a clear throwback into the prior support zone now turned to resistance. Be ruthless with your stops, putting one in place at a risk appropriate level as soon as the trade is on, and tightening it up and/or implementing a ladder of partial position stops as the trade works in your favor. The market has an underlying bid. Moves to the upside are potentially infinite, moves to the bottom are capped at 100%. If you employ short strategies, understand that the deck is stacked against you and you therefore need to be air tight on adhering to risk management.
I disagree on the part where you say the deck is stacked against short positions. I think 90% of Nasdaq, 99% of AMEX and 60-70% of NYSE small caps are absolute trash or outright scams and give up the ghost immediately on any price elevation. Honestly I have never gotten anything but screwed in long positions ever except in crypto. Imo long positions are a waste of time unless you have 75-100k to put into Vanguard S&P etfs or maybe lightly levered funds like SSO for 6 month swings. But yeah my win ratio and risk reward ratio on shorts is ridiculously high hitting only morning patterns. Now short positions multi-day, that's a different story. Multi day shorts are more dangerous than multi day longs in my opinion. I only trade intraday shorts, if I want to short multi-day I use puts.
I wholeheartedly agree that risk management is critical for short positions. But this is why short is so much easier in my opinion.. Risk levels on the patterns I trade are so much easier to identify and you'll have tons less fluctuation over those key levels so you can make stops ridiculously tight. I'm getting one to five risk reward ratios sometimes because the resistance levels are so clean. The only problems with short positions are that under PDT you're crippled on entry and exit strategies so you have to leave stops wider than you might otherwise and basically it's like being handcuffed. In that sense yes the deck is stacked against you, if you're under PDT, the most ridiculous and discriminatory rule there is.
There are some nightmare scenarios for intraday shorts like acquisition announcements or really good news pumps but that almost never happens during the trading day and the stuff I trade is probably 100x more likely to announce an offering than they are to get acquired. Also even an acquisition announcement during the day on one of these trash piles is probably only going to get you a 100% loss max. Now if you are shorting a real company for a week you're running way more risk of running into a collab announcement or an acquisition that can give you those losses over 100%. Same with shorting super hot memes or real companies.. You can get raped on those quick.
But yeah most of the blowup warnings for short selling come into play because the urge to short parabolics is so strong in new traders because it can pay 5x in 15 minutes. That's not my game though, I stalk and sit and wait for backside on non-meme stock bio and Chinese dumpster fires and I cut quick because it's extremely easy to do so. If I wasn't under PDT I'd cut positions at even if they start making higher lows in a tighter trade range.
A person can hit parabolics responsibly by reading level 2 but I don't really trust it and would rather just avoid them altogether. That's where people get screwed shorting or else they take multi day positions and refuse to let go.. But that's just as easy to do on the long side.
Not to say that shorting small caps is easy.. There's a lot of screening which takes a while to get good at, a lot of patience not hitting sub optimal patterns, problems getting borrows, weird stuff like buy ins and funky broker rules regarding these crap stocks, liquidity will sometimes dry up and make it really hard to do anything and watching volume is a must.. Etc. Every strategy has its challenges and this is no exception.
TLDR Shorting shares intraday is not particularly dangerous if you wait for backside, avoid meme stocks, parabolics and large multi-day positions. It can be challenging under PDT because it limits agility and messes up your risk levels and limits re-entries or scaling in/out of positions. Risk management is critical but realistically its not much different from long shares unless you get caught in a huge position on a parabolic and get psychologically paralyzed. I would recommend at least a year of trading long intraday small caps before trying to come over to the sweet sweet gods nectar of shorting horrible companies pumping their share prices for an offering.
Edited by high_desert (12/11/22 04:09 PM)
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Hartford
Lawful Good



Registered: 11/27/19
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28097668 - 12/14/22 06:23 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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It looks like AEHR is about to plunge down.
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gopher
Coffee Bean Extraordinaire



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28097675 - 12/14/22 06:27 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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My silver is up $70, hopefully it dosnt fall for the next 6months I plan to sell next spring
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28097725 - 12/14/22 06:57 PM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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I don't see AEHR at a high risk of "plunging", as it tagged its 50 day moving average today and bounced a bit. Zoomed out, it does look a bit double toppy on the weekly chart from the 2021 high to the recent high at $28 (which was technically higher and what had attracted me to the name, but it has faced resistance at that level). At the moment, I hold no stock but am short the December $25 and $22.50 calls with the intent to build a position incrementally. I suspect that the $25's are likely to be put to me, but the $22.50's may not. If the stock looks to close below its 50 day moving average @ $21.77, I will probably reduce my exposure a bit by closing a portion of the short calls, however today's action actually looks like a viable low risk entry on any upside follow-through tomorrow, so long as you adhere to a stop at today's low of $21.76.
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Hartford
Lawful Good



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Loc: Tennessee
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28098212 - 12/15/22 03:04 AM (1 year, 1 month ago) |
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Thanks for the advice!
Edited by Hartford (12/15/22 03:33 AM)
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