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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - BP, PG, WFMI, MO, VZ, PWR, KMP, FXI, NAT, FCX [Re: geokills]
    #9834274 - 02/20/09 03:37 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

"I won't even comment on GE, I got that one dead wrong and don't deserve to opine upon it! :wink:"

Well gee whiz, if you were never wrong, we'd have to pay a bundle for your opinion. I do plan to get in, I may set an auto order for 8.50 and see what happens. I'd take a couple thousand shares at that price.

What is your opinion on buying silver as far as the best way to go about it? I plan to get into silver but not for a few months. Silver production has fallen behind demand for about the last 50 years or so. The difference is made up by recycling silver already in use. If silver demand booms even a little bit more, prices could go through the stratosphere. Should we buy bullion or silver stock and why?

Historically, silver has been around 1/15 the price of gold but now it's around 1/80 or worse. It could quadruple and not even come back to historical levels.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - BP, PG, WFMI, MO, VZ, PWR, KMP, FXI, NAT, FCX [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9834547 - 02/20/09 04:38 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Silver seems like a good idea, but honestly I don't study much on the precious metals trade.  Don't get me wrong, I keep a whole heapin' of gold on hand, but I consider it an insurance policy, a hedge... it is not something I actively trade or try to time.  Of course, there seem to be plenty of people on this site who do try to do just that, so maybe they'll come along with an opinion for you.




On GE: They should cut their dividend and save billions of dollars each year, thereby protecting their AAA credit rating.  Shares of GE would probably rally on news of a dividend cut, but until that happens, upside will be limited.  At this point, it seems that the threat of a credit downgrade (which is increased as long as GE is spending billions on their dividend), is a bigger problem for the stock than the actual dividend cut.

From what I've been seeing and hearing, it looks like most large investors already believe GE's dividend is toast.  They're just waiting for the formal announcement to see by how much it will in fact be cut so that they can factor the new number into their models, along with the reduced risk of a credit downgrade (which would be absolutely devastating for the stock if it were to occur).  Once GE's credit rating is more secure, institutions will feel more comfortable committing larger amounts of capital and the stock should find some footing.


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Edited by geokills (02/20/09 08:51 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: geokills]
    #9850641 - 02/23/09 02:52 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

We just can't catch a break in this relentlessly poor market, closing at 11 year lows!  We popped higher at the open thanks to a leak from the Treasury last night regarding a potential 40% national stake in Citigroup (C), but that faded quickly as the market decided to cast a vote of no confidence with respect to the government's consistently vague plans.

The market appears to be very unhappy about the government intending to continue throwing money at problem banks rather than simply closing them down and selling their deposits to more stable institutions.  These bad banks really do need to fail, and their exceptionally poor management teams need to be removed from the business.  What good is propping up a failing institution without reforming their operation, in effect financing their continuation on the same tired path that lead them into such dire straits to begin with?  Most importantly, we need clarity... not all of these small leaks being handed out to the media from Treasury whenever the market seems to be at a breaking point.


  • ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) - Bought 111 shares @ $17.96

    Sentiments are increasingly negative and various oscillators are pointing to an increasingly oversold position in the markets.  As is the case, oversold conditions may persist much longer than we would expect; but we are now sitting right above another critical support level of 741 on the S&P500 (the intra-day November low on this index), which if conjoined with some sort of positive news out of the government, could lead to a short-term bear market rally.  In this scenario, the rally could be fairly significant given the coiled tension from so much pessimism that has built up over the past two weeks.  Therefore, I am initiating a position in this leveraged fund that returns roughly two times the return of the S&P 500 index.  If we experience a gap down on heavy volume at the market open tomorrow or Wednesday, I am of the belief that this could exhaust the sellers in the short-term, leading to short-covering, and would look to buy even more of this Ultra S&P500 fund in that event.  If on the other hand we continue to grind down slowly on the major indicies, I will likely stop out this position.  Since the type of spike down that I'm looking for is typically very short lived, I am easing into this position today just in case I miss it.  I have also placed bids on individual stocks in accordance with my shopping list shown below. 

    If we break through 739 on the S&P 500, the most significant support levels left are 733, 700, and :facepalm: 600.


My updated shopping list is as follows (all active bids):
  • MO @ $15
  • KMP @ $44
  • MRO @ $21
  • FXI @ $22
  • FCX @ $20
  • VZ @ $27
  • PWR @ $15
  • GS @ $70
  • NAT @ $23.75
  • WFMI @ $11.50


Discretionary Portfolio as of 2/23/2009:
  • 28.9% Cash
  • 11.5% Altria (MO)
  • 9.7% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.0% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.3% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.3% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.3% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.3% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.6% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.6% Powershares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 Equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.5% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.4% Proshares Ultra S&P500 (SSO)
  • 2.0% BP plc (BP)
  • 1.8% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 1.4% JPMorgan (JPM)


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: geokills]
    #9850946 - 02/23/09 03:51 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

I don't know if it's the bank fears or clearly a shift to manufacturing sectors. I knew it was only a matter of time before they got hit hard.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: geokills]
    #9851117 - 02/23/09 04:15 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
We just can't catch a break in this relentlessly poor market, closing at 11 year lows!




This is getting absurd...


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9851358 - 02/23/09 04:56 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Hotnuts said:
I don't know if it's the bank fears or clearly a shift to manufacturing sectors. I knew it was only a matter of time before they got hit hard.



Before who got hit hard?  Both banks and industrials have been getting hit hard for a very long time now. 
In fact, today the banks were showing relative strength, doing better than most other sectors.


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: geokills]
    #9851475 - 02/23/09 05:18 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Whoa! I meant technology sectors, not manufacturing.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9851524 - 02/23/09 05:25 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Ah yes, technology may be a problem.  I'm still holding a weak hand in the Powershares QQQ Trust
(QQQQ), a Nasdaq 100 equivalent, but it may not stay in my portfolio for long at this rate.

On another note, I would like to share the following article that came out shortly after I made my update
today, supporting my comments regarding the potential for a bear market rally in the near future.

Quote:

Selling May Be Losing Steam
By John Hughes and Scott Maragioglio

RealMoney.com Contibutors
2/23/2009 4:36 PM EST 

Every day it's one bad piece of news after another. It's another government program spending too much money with little economic benefit, and more actions that don't address the real problems. In response, we have been in a situation where traders are left with absolutely no reason to buy.

Even if there isn't a large amount of selling, with no buyers the impact is still lower prices. As we fall further into the abyss, the rope we are hanging on to is slowly slipping from our hands, or at least it feels that way. The interesting paradox of the stock market is that sometimes it needs to get bad or really bad in order for it to get good.

If we use the expression "It's always darkest before the dawn" to describe the current market situation, we could argue its pretty dark right now, and hopefully that means the dawn isn't too far away. Here is the objective argument for why the market may be approaching another low or may be in the process of making one. After the November lows, the market was at oversold levels. We evaluate such a condition on the basis of our SRASI indicator, which tracks liquidity flows into the indices and various sectors. This indicator reached an overbought level on Jan. 9. Since then, we have been trading lower in the indices, and last week this indicator reached oversold levels for the first time since this selling began.

That simply says the selling has accelerated and is now reaching extreme levels, levels where we typically see the selling exhaust itself, and as a result, this is the background from which we typically see rallies emerge.

Liquidity Flows Into Indices 



We can add to that positive a few other bullish divergences that are in place. Despite the indices being at or close to new lows, violating the November lows, the broader market, as measured by breadth, is not making new lows. This suggests the selling has not been as broad-based as during previous declines. Volume has been lighter during this leg down as well, a further indication the selling is lacking intensity. Finally, we can throw in new 52-week lows, which, despite increasing of late, are nowhere near the levels that were reached the last time the indices were trading near current levels.

These are the types of indications we look for to signal that the selling is climaxing or has at least run its course. It is not a guarantee of a rally, and it does not say ultimately how low the indices will trade down before rallying. However, consider that all the previous conditions are typically necessary conditions to be present if there is going to be a change of trend and a rally of some magnitude. From that standpoint, the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place, and we should be cautious of a rally emerging over the next few days.




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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2009 - SSO [Re: geokills]
    #9851691 - 02/23/09 05:56 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

If you read the shameful post that i'm replacing, I was incorrect. For some ODD reason I thought the S&P wasn't in divergence when it clearly is. I was looking at the trend too close. When I smoke pot, I get all out of wack sometimes.

Anyways. Here's the S&P500. The divergence you see labeled along with the failure swing point at the end of November is a good buy/sell signal (or trend reversal signal), but failed to rally well, even though it did rally some. As you can see with the bottom indicator MACD, the indicator is rising well, while the trend is not. It's a trend following indicator that can show you trend reversals, along with strength if you know how to use it. See the blue lines. MACD is much steeper than the trend's is, pointing to a weak trend. See how the support levels in that area are clearly rounding over as well? Another good way to tell when a trend reversal could be coming. You can see how both indicators (RSI and MACD) at present time still have room to roll to the downside.



Edited by Hotnuts (02/23/09 09:03 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: geokills]
    #9877599 - 02/27/09 02:29 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

The market has held up fairly well in the face of very negative news flow these past few days... but it surely isn't doing us any favors.  Unfortunately, my bets in biotech (CELG & GILD) are getting hit hard in part due to a concern in the way companies that gain overseas revenue are taxed, in conjunction with Obama's overall assault on the healthcare sector. 

The market remains in deeply oversold territory, so I have continued to add to my longs in anticipation of a short-term bounce.  My portfolio is however becoming rather bloated and significant strength will be used to pare back positions for sure, as we have now clearly violated our November lows and will likely continue to head lower in the intermediate term.


  • Pepsico (PEP) - Bought 40 shares

    This is a very well run consumer staple.  Their Frito-Lay brand is showing market share growth particularly in the international markets, and they have outlined a $1.2 billion cost-cutting program that should see $400 million saved each year for the next three years.  Add to that a safe 3.4% dividend yield and I like the relative stability afforded by this stock.


  • General Electric (GE) - Bought 250 shares

    I had recently sold out of GE at $11.15, but am deciding to RENT a li'l block of shares here on the news that they are cutting their dividend.  This will save the company $9 billion a year which nearly eliminates the capital concerns for the company next year.  This in turn gets rid of the bankruptcy option that was fueling the stocks rapid decline over the past several weeks.  This makes the stock better than it was yesterday, and I am renting a handful of shares at $8.75 with the idea that institutional investors also see this as a material positive.


  • 21.6% Cash
  • 11.8% Altria (MO)
  • 9.8% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.3% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.5% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.2% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 3.9% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.7% General Electric (GE)
  • 3.7% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.6% Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ)
  • 3.5% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 3.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 3.4% Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO)
  • 2.0% BP plc (BP)
  • 2.0% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 1.6% JPMorgan (JPM)


--------------------

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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: geokills]
    #9878525 - 02/27/09 04:06 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

"General Electric (GE) - Bought 250 shares

I had recently sold out of GE at $11.15, but am deciding to RENT a li'l block of shares here on the news that they are cutting their dividend.  This will save the company $9 billion a year which nearly eliminates the capital concerns for the company next year.  This in turn gets rid of the bankruptcy option that was fueling the stocks rapid decline over the past several weeks.  This makes the stock better than it was yesterday, and I am renting a handful of shares at $8.75 with the idea that institutional investors also see this as a material positive. "

I too bought in on some GE. My autobid got me 1000 shares at 8.50. I have it set to auto sell at 8.80. Just trying to grab some loot. I got hit hard in the latest down turn. I'm not sure what to do right now.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9878995 - 02/27/09 05:04 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

This is so crazy.

Lower and lower and lower every day.

It has to stop sometime, right?

I'm only a casual observer, with no money in play, and even I'm nervous.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9879074 - 02/27/09 05:17 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Mad, I've made about a 5k downward plunge the last few days. Imagine my concern. I know it will go back up some day but when? Geo, how do you "rent" stocks? Do you mean on margin? It was down to 8.50 again last I looked. It went up to 9 today but I missed it.

Ebay is very solid. They are the only real game in town for online auctions. None of the others even come close. Plus they own Paypal which is a money machine. They just got dragged by the market. Why couldn't I have kept my shorts a little longer? Oh well, I'll reap a profit probably within a month but that means little or no speculation in the meantime.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9879863 - 02/27/09 07:08 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

i got in GE also at 9.08.

have a buy order for 7.50 also.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9883061 - 02/28/09 09:31 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:

Geo, how do you "rent" stocks? Do you mean on margin?



No, no margin; I've never used margin.  By "renting", I mean that I only intend this to a be short term holding designed to catch a near term recovery in the share price on the heels of the company's improved capital position and reduced risk of a credit rating downgrade.  GE is not a company that I want to build a long-term position in at this point, so I will be selling out of the position as soon as I see some strength.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: geokills]
    #9883229 - 02/28/09 10:03 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Geo, if you can make money at 8.75, then perhaps I'll make money at 8.5. We are both waiting for it to go up.

I think I only went down about 4k total and not all was the last few days but most of it was. My plan is to double up and invest even more. I think in a month the market will have recovered some. I think I'll have my price on ebay and turn a nice profit. I may even buy some more before then. I don't think I'll get serious on ge until it goes below 8. I'm just playing the see saw now, same as you.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflineLearyfanS
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9886091 - 02/28/09 06:07 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

I also have some GE.  I got 400 shares at $10.90 (doh!) and 300 shares at $8.50.  I've been thinking about selling it soon because I think my money is better spent on some of the cheap bank stocks right now.  Geo, how long do you estimate that it will take for GE to go up a couple dollars or so? 








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Mp3 of the month:  The Apple-Glass Cyndrome - Someday



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Learyfan]
    #9886614 - 02/28/09 08:06 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

It wouldn't be appropriate for me to state a specific time period.  I am personally looking for the stock to react quickly to the company's improved capital position, perhaps once an analyst or two comes out with positive comments which should provide a pop in the share price.  This in conjunction with an oversold rally on the major indicies would allow for a fine exit from the stock.  When this will happen... who really knows?  The market is not healthy and seems to have little memory from day to day.  This is why I am keeping my positions small and well diversified.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: geokills]
    #9889364 - 03/01/09 10:52 AM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Geo, how much did you lose in the recent downturn? I see bp is down, I guess they all are. What price do you hope to get for your ge stock? I'm wondering if 8.80 is not ambitious enough but on the other hand, I think stocks will go down some more before they rally.

I plan to put into my brokerage account this coming week as much as I've put in there altogether already. I may invest it all by the end of the week or perhaps by next week. I expect the market to rally by the end of the month and to stay good for a while. I may do some buy and hold instead of just flipping as I have done. I expect to sell my ebay at a nice profit. I'll probably keep speculating on that one given it's volatility. Citi was down to 1.50, from what I heard. Good thing you got out.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2009 - PEP, GE [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9892511 - 03/01/09 07:45 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

> Geo, how much did you lose in the recent downturn?

Uhh, what exactly do you mean by "recent downturn"?  :smirk:  We've been in a downturn for over a year now! :crazy2:

My portfolio is currently valued ~24% higher than it was on November 20th, which was the previous low in the S&P500 that we violated late last week.  So on a relative basis I have been doing alright.  I have been outperforming the market over the past several weeks, but am still down approximately 5% over the past month (while the S&P500 has lost closer to 15%).  I have not felt bad about the month of February, but I am starting to get a little nervous now that I have picked up so many long positions in anticipation of a bear market rally.  The violation of our November low last week is what has me most nervous, as the market has been trading in a very technical fashion... and when lows are breached, that is a technical indicator for another leg down.

As for what price I hope to get out of GE, I have not built a rigid line.  I will be evaluating the movement of the stock as we move forward, and will make my decision based largely on technical analysis.  I will probably begin trimming the position if we can fill the gap between $9.50 - $10.

As a note of caution, I am still holding 25%+ cash, and I would strongly advise against investing "ALL" of your contributions by the end of next week.  It is honestly one of the biggest mistakes an investor can make (I know because I've made it quite a few times!).  Particularly in a market as bad as this one, you need to keep some powder dry on the sidelines, because things can always go lower!


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