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OfflineLearyfanS
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Re: Stock Update for February 10, 2009 - GS, MS, VZ [Re: geokills]
    #9773874 - 02/10/09 07:02 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

This is awesome, Geo.  I'm going to start checking in to this thread now.  Thanks for posting your stocks specifically.  That's cool.  :thumbup:


PS - :lol:@"a sexy 6% dividend" 








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Mp3 of the month:  The Apple-Glass Cyndrome - Someday



Edited by Learyfan (02/12/09 03:14 PM)


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Re: Stock Update for February 10, 2009 - GS, MS, VZ [Re: Learyfan]
    #9773967 - 02/10/09 07:19 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

I check this thread every week or two.  I try not to clog it up by commenting too much though


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 11, 2009 - QQQQ [Re: Ferris]
    #9778514 - 02/11/09 02:18 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Hey I dig the comments, particularly if you have a contrarian opinion and are willing to explain it to me for perspective!

Just a note that I picked up a small position (75 shares @ $29.98) in the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) today, which mimics the Nasdaq 100 index.  For now, I'll just call this a rental.  The NASDAQ index is currently sitting at its 20 & 50 day moving average, and since it doesn't contain financials or industrials or commodity plays (the most volatile groups), perhaps it can maintain stability and even begin to rise as investors get tired of dealing with the insanity of the aforementioned sectors and instead hideout in cash-rich technology companies with proven management.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 12, 2009 - AAP, TBT, HTS [Re: geokills]
    #9785489 - 02/12/09 03:26 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Another gut-wrenching day in a market full of twists and turns no one can reliably predict.  The market was weak all day, down nearly 3% until the last hour of trading when we catapulted back into positive territory on the heels of news about a government program that intends to create a standardized approach to writing down mortgages which will allow home loans to be modified for troubled homeowners who can prove hardship under the new structure, before they actually fall behind on payments. 

You might speculate that given the extreme level of uncertainty in the markets in conjunction with a plethora of details to come from the government over the coming months regarding their various plans to help stabilize the economy, that these are the days to shop for your favorite stocks!  Because the fear has become so palpable across all media outlets that I pay mind to, I am confident that indeed this is a good time to be focusing on buying high quality companies at depressed prices, and certainly not a safe time to be materially short.  Nevertheless, I maintain that we have a good chance of testing our November lows (11.25% lower than today's close), so build your positions slowly and do not chase anything.


  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - Covering Short @ $32.50

    Didn't make more than $20 on this one, but hey that'll cover tonight's dinner!  I decided to bail on this one because it has held the $33 level quite well, and I can see people needing more auto parts for repairs as they continue to use older vehicles instead of buying new ones.  The company reports its quarter next week and I don't have the conviction to stand in front of it so I will close the position for a very small gain and stand aside.


  • UltraShort 20-Year+ US Treasuries (TBT) - Sold 50 share @ $45.50

    Selling a chunk of this position for a 5% gain to reduce my exposure and reallocate the capital into new positions (such as VZ, HTS, QQQQ).  If or when the market tests the November low, I have a feeling I'll be able to reload on the TBT at a great price.  And if that time never comes and the markets improve, I still have a sizable position on my books.  I just don't want to be so heavily weighted on this UltraShort when we are so precariously perched near a critical support level on the S&P.


  • Hatteras Financial Corp (HTS) - Bought 85 shares @ $24.20

    This one takes a little effort to wrap your head around.  HTS is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that generates net income from the spread between the interest income on its investment portfolio, and the interest costs of its borrowings and hedging activities.  HTS continues to benefit from government efforts to lower mortgage rates, which in turn results in related mortgage backed securities (MBS) rising in price and falling in yield.  This rise in price will positively impact Hatteras' book value, in effect deleveraging by increasing the equity base, which could then be borrowed against to maintain leverage - an upward spiral of book and earnings power.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 2/12/2009:
  • 26.9% Cash
  • 12.1% Altria (MO)
  • 9.1% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.7% UltraShort 20-year+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 7.6% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 4.4% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.2% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.2% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.8% PowerShares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 Equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.7% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.5% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 3.5% Hatteras Financial Corp (HTS)
  • 3.1% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 2.2% BP Plc (BP)
  • 2.1% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 1.8% JPMorgan (JPM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2009 - AAP, TBT, HTS [Re: geokills]
    #9790818 - 02/13/09 02:39 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Quick note that I sold another 25 shares of the UltraShort 20Yr+ US Treasury (TBT) today at $48.


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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2009 - AAP, TBT, HTS [Re: geokills]
    #9791238 - 02/13/09 04:15 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Geo, no one can say you aren't diversified enough. You have stock all over the map, not just 15 or more different companies but different industries and different parts of the economy. Just keeping up on the news surrounding those stocks must be a full time job. It wears me out just thinking about it. That and buying and selling small numbers of shares is too complicated for me.

But, you've made good money over the years so that means something right there. It means you've passed the test of time. My system is to study just a few shares and up to now, only invest in one. Actually, what I've been doing is more like speculating than investing. I haven't gotten that far yet. But, I'm making good money on it. I learn something new almost every time I read this thread. I plan to move some cash into my brokerage account fairly soon and do some real investing. I'll probably get some GE and sit on it.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 17, 2009 - MRO [Re: geokills]
    #9815467 - 02/17/09 04:51 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Pretty nasty day out there.  Out of the 15 issues in my portfolio, only two were in the green:
    Recent addition Hatteras Financial (HTS) and an old staple that is currently my second largest position, Walmart (WMT). 

Important to keep your cool in times like these.  We are now sitting at the November lows (this is the re-test I've been talking about in so many of my recent updates), and we must remember not to panic but also remain mindful that we could break support and head much lower from here.  I was able to squeeze off one calculated purchase today, adding to my Marathon Oil (MRO) position by buying 40 shares @ $25.  I was fortunate to have sold 30 shares of MRO at $29.20 just last month, and would like to continue rebuilding this position into weakness as I believe oil will find its floor here soon.

Because this market is in such a perilous state, I am doing my buying slowly and will be waiting for a moment of panic that catches the market in freefall to really start putting heavy cash to work.  I would suggest that anyone else with cash intending to invest, should create a shopping list of the stocks they want and the prices they want to buy them at.  In this way, you might avoid making rash decisions in the heat of the moment.  Here is the shopping list I created today after the market closed; this is what I will be buying and the levels I will be looking to do it at:
  • MO @ $15
  • KMP @ $45
  • MRO @ $22.50
  • FXI @ $22
  • VZ @ $27 (I actually had a bid in today for $28 but it never triggered)
  • PWR @ $15
  • GS @ $70


My Discretionary portfolio as of 2/17/2009:
  • 28.1% Cash
  • 11.7% Altria (MO)
  • 9.4% Walmart (WMT)
  • 7.6% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 5.8% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.7% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.3% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.2% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.2% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.8% PowerShares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.6% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.5% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 3.5% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 2.2% BP plc (BP)
  • 2.0% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 1.5% JPMorgan (JPM)


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Re: Stock Update for February 17, 2009 - MRO [Re: geokills]
    #9815898 - 02/17/09 06:16 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

You were wise to get out of GE though you should have sold it all when you decided it was a loser instead of selling it a little at a time. It's down below 11 now. I took a thumping on my ebay stock which is down about a half a point from where I bought it. I should have grabbed the quick profit yesterday. I'm not worried about it, ebay will double that price within a few years at most. I'd just like to free up my money so I can speculate some more. I'll just wait until it goes back up and I'll grab a small profit. I may buy more if it dips further. I think I'll grab some ge later this week. It's a battered blue chip and probably will go up. I might wait to see if it goes below 10 but I doubt it will.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 17, 2009 - MRO [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9815931 - 02/17/09 06:23 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

To borrow a line from one of my favorite seasoned investors... Serious market participants/observers should:

            Run, don't walk, to read Fear and Loathing on Wall Street: A Savage Journey to the Heart of Investors' Dreams.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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READ THE PRIMER! :) [Re: geokills]
    #9826859 - 02/19/09 02:32 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Did some serious revisions on my Stock Market Primer (first post of this thread).  Revised the introduction for clarity and increased emphasis on the current state of the market, added a couple of off-site links for reference, and added the following sections:
  • Don't buy the best house in a bad neighborhood.
  • Don't fight the trend.
  • Volume tells truth.
  • Dividend safety.

Take a look.  If you have ideas for additional sections that I should discuss or for sections that I did not adequately explain, please make a suggestion.
I know some technical analysis should be included, but perhaps that would be best served as its own seperate topic?


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Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: geokills]
    #9832834 - 02/20/09 11:36 AM (14 years, 11 months ago)

I just bought a $1300 lottery ticket.  That is to say, 750 shares of Citigroup (C). :wink:


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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: geokills]
    #9832858 - 02/20/09 11:39 AM (14 years, 11 months ago)

lmao


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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: geokills]
    #9832869 - 02/20/09 11:41 AM (14 years, 11 months ago)

You've got a bigger set than I do ole' boy! Citi will be one of the first to be nationalized if this progresses. Good luck.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: Hotnuts]
    #9833261 - 02/20/09 12:37 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

I'm already out of the Citigroup (C) trade, for a quick 10% gain.


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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: geokills]
    #9833468 - 02/20/09 01:09 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

:lol:

I was gonna say, I was hoping you'd take the quick flip


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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: Ferris]
    #9833488 - 02/20/09 01:13 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

BP is down around 40 and dipped below that most of the day. That is one of your target stocks. Did you get any? Everything is dropping so much I'm starting to wonder if we've seen the bottom yet. No bank stocks for me right now.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - C [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9833543 - 02/20/09 01:23 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Even if I didn't think this were the bottom, I'd still be buying.

Who can argue with a 6 year low :shrug:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - BP, PG, WFMI, MO, VZ, PWR, KMP, FXI, NAT, FCX [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9833857 - 02/20/09 02:16 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

I did pick up BP @ $40 for my retirement portfolio this morning.  My Roth IRA is still 57% cash, but I am looking to add positions in Altria (MO) @ $15 and Verizon (VZ) @ $27.  My bid on Verizon used to be $26.50, but after today's upgrade from Goldman Sachs on both major telecom's (AT&T & Verizon), I've raised my bid to $27.

The market was able to stage a bit of a reversal at around 1:15p EST, right around the time I initiated my Citigroup flip... but I am concerned that we are sitting at such low levels and particularly about the multi-round collapse in financial stocks.  I have a feeling we may be in for some capitulation (rapid fire panic selling across the board) in the near future.  Supporting this feeling is a $2 million bet on higher volatility in the month to come made via VIX calls this afternoon:
Quote:

Traders Buying VIX Calls
2/20/2009 3:01 PM EST
By Jon "DRJ" Najarian of OptionMonster.com

In a direct reversal from yesterday, options traders are buying VIX calls in huge volume.

One large player put up a VIX March 55-65 bull call spread some 17,000 times for about $1.25 -- a $2.125 million bet. The March 55 calls were bought for $2.05 and the March 65 calls sold for 80 cents, according to OptionMonster's tracking systems.

This strategy is apparently either looking for a big pop in the volatility index or is hedging an over-the-counter trade. Either way, it is the opposite of yesterday's VIX activity, when traders were clearly betting against a rise in volatility. The index is up more than 4% today to $49.12.




Because of all this activity, I am selling the remains of my Proctor & Gamble (PG) position.  The company is stable and not likely to see a huge move either way at this point.  While I do believe there is more upside than downside to the stock, I feel the upside is still quite limited and would rather have the cash on hand to put to work in the event of extreme new lows in the market.

Here are my current bids:
  • Quanta Services (PWR) @ $15

  • Altria (MO) @ $15

  • Verizon (VZ) @ $27

  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) @ $45 and $38.95

  • Whole Foods (WFMI) @ $12 and $11.60

  • iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI) @ $22

  • Nordic American Tanker (NAT) @ $25

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) @ $15


You may notice that Whole Foods (WFMI) is a new addition to the stocks I've been following.  This is on account of their 38% ramp yesterday with the highest positive volume in two years.  The stock is now trading over its 50 day moving average, as well as above a recent downtrend line which began from the spike in January.  The 200-day moving average at $17.50 will likely provide stiff upside resistance.  Late summer lows of around $17 may also be a hurdle... but this stills leads to a perfect-trade gain of 50%, and a more realistic gain of 25 - 30% if I can get in at the price I'm seeking.  I believe Whole Foods has had a lot of the bad news priced in; with positive free cash flow and their move towards more private label products, I think this one can carry higher in the near term.

Should be an exciting week forthcoming!  As those of you who have followed along with me throughout this thread know, I have typically focused on building long-term positions.  However, I will be aiming to capitalize on short-term volatility (i.e. day trading), as I did with Citigroup today for a quick 10% turn in an hour.  I am no doubt a little skiddish with this type of ultra short-term trading, but in an environment that sees stocks easily swinging 10% (and sometimes upwards of 30%) in a single trading session, I think that now is a very appropriate time to give this trading style an honest effort!


Discretionary Portfolio as of 2/20/2009:
  • 31.8% Cash
  • 11.6% Altria (MO)
  • 9.7% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 6.0% UltraShort 20yr+ US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 4.5% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 4.3% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.3% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.3% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% Powershares QQQ Trust [Nasdaq 100 equiv] (QQQQ)
  • 3.7% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.4% Hatteras Financial (HTS)
  • 2.1% BP Plc (BP)
  • 1.9% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 1.4% JPMorgan (JPM)


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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - BP, PG, WFMI, MO, VZ, PWR, KMP, FXI, NAT, FCX [Re: geokills]
    #9834081 - 02/20/09 02:56 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Geo, I know you don't like to say how many shares you are buying but I noticed that on 2-17 you said you had 2.2% in bp and today after buying it, you have 2.1%. Seems like you have gone down instead of up. It's nice you caught the rally for a few bucks on citi.

My ebay is languishing and I could have sold several times for a decent profit. I may buy more if it drops again. I'm watching ge but it's dropping like there is no tomorrow. I think I'll buy at any price under about 9.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 20, 2009 - BP, PG, WFMI, MO, VZ, PWR, KMP, FXI, NAT, FCX [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9834176 - 02/20/09 03:11 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

You must read closely!  My purchase today was for my retirement portfolio, whereas the %-statistics I list are for my discretionary portfolio.  I am currently holding BP in both.  My purchase on BP today was for 50 shares.  Most of my updates over the past year indicate exactly how many shares and at what price I purchased/sold them.  I have generally refrained from posting updates about my retirement portfolio, but since I concurrently hold BP in my discretionary, I figured I'd make the mention.

I won't even comment on GE, I got that one dead wrong and don't deserve to opine upon it! :wink:



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