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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for November 28, 2008 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #9665891 - 01/23/09 03:11 PM (15 years, 8 days ago)

AUY

been swinging, and have some long.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for November 28, 2008 [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #9666117 - 01/23/09 03:51 PM (15 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

AroundtheSon said:
AUY

been swinging, and have some long.




Well I must say I am impressed with gold's price action given the "recession" and oil tanking and the dollar being strong.  It has broken out of a pennant formation and looks to be heading higher.  Interesting stuff.


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Re: Stock Update for November 28, 2008 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #9666783 - 01/23/09 05:57 PM (15 years, 8 days ago)

printing money, no?


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Stock Update for January 23, 2009 - HSIC [Re: geokills]
    #9679878 - 01/25/09 10:19 PM (15 years, 6 days ago)

  • Henry Schein (HSIC) - Closed short position on Friday - Wash (no gain or loss)

    Though fundamentally I believe that the stock will be weak, I want to reduce my exposure and look for more extended short term trading opportunities.  This one has not coorperated with my initial time frame and I do not need to stick around hoping that it will.  I will instead wait until I can reload at a higher price, or find an alternate opportunity.


I'd suggest everyone who is currently investing in the stock market take a look at this [Video by Dan Fitzpatrick] on StockMarketMentor.com.

As my portfolio has been built around longer-term positions, the message Dan presents really hit home.  I'm still holding a fair amount of cash (including additional cash in my everyday accounts which I intend to move into my portfolio within the next year), and I have been making a concerted effort to trade around my core positions more regularly; nevertheless, what Dan says makes a lot of sense.  I need to make sure that I remain flexible in my strategy by using the current volatility for short-term trading, and wait to do most of my longer term investing until the market can move above its 200 day moving average.


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Stock Update for January 26, 2009 - TBT, MO, AAP [Re: geokills]
    #9683160 - 01/26/09 03:07 PM (15 years, 5 days ago)

  • UltraShort 20-year US Treasury Bond (TBT) - Sold 25 shares @ 45.52

    Just some housekeeping here, right-sizing my position.  This has and will continue to be my largest position - a bet that the price of 20 year treasuries will be coming down as deflationary forces moderate and the market regains some stability.  My most recent purchase (prior to the block of 50 shares I sold on the 5th of this month @ $42), was for 50 shares at $40.  Therefore, these 25 shares are being sold for a 13.8% gain.  I will maintain a sizable 175 shares of the TBT in my portfolio.


  • Altria (MO) - Sold 60 shares @ $17

    Just a little more housekeeping, reducing my stake in this recessionary resistant name after it has had a big run from the $15 level where it sat at the beginning of this month.  This has been and will remain my second largest position - since the company is not very sensitive to macroeconomic issues and will benefit from its acquisition of US Smokeless Tobacco, including the safe dividend it carries with an impressive yield currently at 7.7%.  The shares I am trimming today are being sold for a small 6.2% gain.  This particular sale is in anticipation of some selling pressure that could face the stock given the rapid velocity of its rise over the past few weeks.


  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - Sold SHORT 62 shares @ $33

    This company is US based and operates in the automotive aftermarket industry, providing replacement parts (excluding tires), accessories, maintenance items, batteries and automotive chemicals for the do-it-yourself and the do-it-for-me retail sets.  I am starting off small, since I am concerned that low sales of new automobiles may cause people to be spending more on replacement parts - which would work into the favor of a company such as AAP.  However, I believe that this is probably priced in as the stock has seen significant relative strength over the past several months (now trading just a few percent below its three month high of around $34 since its October low of $24).  Thanks to a note by investment professional Doug Kass, I was made aware of this collateral trade to Genuine Parts (GPC), a company that operates in the same industry and cut their profit outlook during their quarterly report last Friday.  AAP was also removed from the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List today.  I will add to this short if the shares reach $34, but will cut my losses and cover if the stock moves above its 200 day moving average which currently stands just over $35.  Therefore, my anticipated downside risk is around a 6% loss, whereas my potential reward is around 18% (though I would likely begin covering at $30 for a 10% gain).



Discretionary Portfolio as of January 26, 2008:
  • 23.1% Cash
  • 13.9% UltraShort 20-Year US Treasury (TBT)
  • 12.7% Altria (MO)
  • 11.3% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.1% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.0% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 5.7% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.3% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.2% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.1% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 3.6% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 3.4% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 2.2% BP PLC (BP)

  • 3.5% margined short equivalent Advance Auto Parts (AAP)


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Re: Stock Update for January 26, 2009 - TBT, MO, AAP [Re: geokills]
    #9694676 - 01/28/09 03:02 PM (15 years, 3 days ago)

How would you invest in oil futures? The commodities market, I would suppose. Any stocks directly tied to oil prices? My gold investments are doing well and I'd like to put some money into oil for the long term.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Update for January 26, 2009 - TBT, MO, AAP [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9695400 - 01/28/09 04:50 PM (15 years, 3 days ago)

check out USO?


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Investing in Oil [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9695470 - 01/28/09 04:58 PM (15 years, 3 days ago)

I don't have experience investing in oil futures, however I do maintain positions in the oil sector.  Given my portfolio, you should see that I currently center my oil exposure around two companies, Marathon Oil (MRO) and BP PLC (BP).  Here are my reasons for owning these stocks:

Quote:

Originally Posted November 24th, 2008:
Marathon Oil (MRO) - Bought 150 shares @ $21 / Flipped 50 shares @ $23

Marathon operates both an exploration and production business as well as a refinery.  Refining companies have been crushed, and it looks like oil may finally be reaching a point where it can stabilize.  I think the reward outweighs the risk at this level.  That alone wouldn't be enough for me to get into this name, but Marathon pays a better than 4% dividend and plans to split its E&P and refinery business, which is the real story that should help unlock a lot of value in this name.  MRO also reported a better than expected quarter last month, so this seems like a good way for me to add some more oil back into my portfolio now that the commodity has fallen so hard.  If the company proceeds with its proposed split, share value could conceivably double.  If the split doesn't happen, I'll still get the dividend along with the potential for a takeover given the incredibly low valuation of the combined company.  This stock is already up 15% from where I bought last week, which is why I flipped some of it earlier today.


Originally Posted January 21, 2009:
BP Inc (BP) - Bought 30 shares @ $41.50

I closed a position in BP at $71.77 last May, and am now re-initiating the position
(albeit a very small one), given that the stock is now some 42% lower.  Granted
for good reason, but oil has not been able to breach the $30 level, as it seems
that China is buying again all the while the Middle East is tightening up their
production.  Furthermore, BP has an aggressive cost-cutting program underway
and their problems with the Russian government seem to be less of a concern. 
With the stock now yielding over 8%, and with a mind to believe that oil may be
making a "W" shaped bottom here, I am going to increase my exposure to the
sector (given that I already own a small position in Marathon Oil (MRO) which I
have been scaling out of for a profit, and which is still 30% above my cost basis.

https://files.shroomery.org/files/09-004/255710847-crude.gif




If you don't feel comfortable trading individual oil companies, nor the very large futures contracts, I would suggest playing the oil sector through the Oil Service HOLDRS Trust (OIH).  This will diversify your risk when compared to investing in an individual company.  The fund's largest positions include a name I made a lot of money off of in 2007 and 2008 Transocean (RIG), as well as Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BHI), and Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), amongst several oil service companies with a smaller weighting.  As AroundtheSun suggested, the US Oil Fund LP ETF (USO) may also meet your needs.

Remember however that there is no rush to buy here!  The market has seen very good strength this week in anticipation of a more engaged administration and a stimulus package (part of which was passed by the House in the last hour).  Given the macroeconomic weakness, it is likely that this euphoria will wear down and you will have an opportunity to buy at a better price.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for January 28, 2009 - PG, JPM, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #9695608 - 01/28/09 05:21 PM (15 years, 3 days ago)

Financial stocks rally on hopes of impending government action to support troubled banks, in turn contributing to a continuing rally in the overall market this week.

  • Proctor & Gamble (PG) - Sold 30 shares @ $58

    Cutting a little less than half of my position at a 8% loss.  I was noting about a month ago how I wanted to let this one go in anticipation of a poor quarterly report, and I wish I wouldn't have held out so strictly for the $62 target I was seeking at the time (when the stock was still above $60).  But I did, and shares fell all the way down to the $55 range in the meanwhile.  Since they have bounced back a little amidst the overall market strength this week, I am taking this as an opportunity to trim the position ahead of earnings.  Earnings may be weak due to organic growth lacking as consumers trade down to private-label brands, in conjunction with a negative currency related effect from overseas sales and the USD exchange rate.  It is possible that I may buy these shares back on weakness following the quarterly report, but if I do it will probably only be for a trade, since I believe there are better places to put my money with more attractive dividends for the time being, such as Altria (MO) with its 7.6% yield.


  • JPMorgan (JPM) - Sold 40 shares @ $27.40

    I made a purchase at $18 last week, the majority of which I flipped way too early at $20 :doh:.  And while I believe JPM remains the one of a precious few financial companies to invest in for the eventual turnaround in our financial system (Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS being the others), I am mindful that financial stocks have absolutely caught fire over the last week and are probably getting ahead of themselves.  I have a feeling that once the government does announce a plan to help the banks, we are likely to see a "sell the news" reaction to all this anticipatory buildup.  I will not hesitate to buy more JPM on weakness, or start positions in WFC or GS on significant weakness either.


  • UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) - Bought 25 shares @ $73

    The S&P500 has run from 800 all the way up to 875 in a heartbeat, and I think we're going to be giving some of that back sooner rather than later.  We may make it up to 900, and if we do you can bet I will be adding to this downside hedge (which returns roughly two times the inverse of the S&P500 index) by buying more!


Discretionary Portfolio as of 1/28/2009:
  • 24.5% Cash
  • 13.6% UltraShort 20-Year US Treasuries (TBT)
  • 12.7% Altria (MO)
  • 11.2% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.8% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 5.8% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.5% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 4.5% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.3% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 3.5% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 3.1% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 2.2% BP PLC (BP)
  • 1.9% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 3.7% margined short equivalent Advance Auto Parts (AAP)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Investing in Oil [Re: geokills]
    #9699346 - 01/29/09 10:35 AM (15 years, 2 days ago)

Quote:

geokills said:

Given the macroeconomic weakness, it is likely that this euphoria will wear down and you will have an opportunity to buy at a better price.



A lot of the major oils are down today in sympathy with the market.  If you do not have any exposure and are looking for some, I would consider legging into BP, MRO, and COP right here.  Since I already have positions in both BP and MRO on the books at lower prices, my targets to add to these positions will be as follows:
  • BP @ $40
  • MRO @ $25
  • COP @ $45


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Re: Investing in Oil [Re: geokills]
    #9700264 - 01/29/09 02:16 PM (15 years, 2 days ago)

Yeah, I've been looking a commodities but it looks iffy. I might dabble in one or more of those stocks. But the futures cost is not that high. You could get a contract for 6 months from now for only about $3 more than it's trading for right now. But will the recession lift and raise oil along with it?


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Investing in Oil [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9700625 - 01/29/09 03:40 PM (15 years, 2 days ago)

Who really knows? 

I believe that with the current production cuts being implemented by OPEC, oil finds a floor at $30, and likely stays between $30 - $50 a barrel throughout the remainder of the year.  I'm not a futures trader, but the stocks I mentioned are good ones.  BP for its very attractive high yield between 7 - 8%.  MRO because it plans to split its refinery and E&P divisions.  And COP because it reported solid earnings yesterday, already lowered is capital expenditures, is one of the world's largest integrated oil companies, carries a decent dividend and is currently trading at a discount relative to its peers in the industry.  COP is probably the one to buy right now, and BP will be solid if it hits $40.  MRO is a good one too, but it's already lifted quite high off of the $21 level where I initiated the position.

I'm not going to post a large update today, but I will note that I sold another 25 shares of my UtraShort US 20 year Treasury (TBT) @ $47.66, as the stock saw an additional 5% of upside from my last sale made on Monday (and is now 10% above my average cost basis).  I maintain a 150 share position.  I also contemplated selling the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) position I put on yesterday for the quick 7% gain, but I think the S&P can fall back to 825 here pretty easily so I am going to hold on for now.


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Re: Investing in Oil [Re: geokills]
    #9700849 - 01/29/09 04:18 PM (15 years, 2 days ago)

I'm thinking oil will go back up to over $100 in a few years. The long range contracts I saw were for around $60 to $70 long term. That doesn't give a lot of room for profit. Plus my broker doesn't seem to handle commodities. BP does sound good but most companies are cutting dividends now days.

I'm new to all this but I prefer to buy or sell all my shares. I don't like to sell 10 or 20%. I either like it or I don't. I've been doing all right so far. Knock on wood.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Investing in Oil [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9701226 - 01/29/09 05:41 PM (15 years, 2 days ago)

> BP does sound good but most companies are cutting dividends now days

BP's management has committed to their dividend.  Now that is of course not an absolute guarantee, but when they come out and publicly state their commitment during quarterly reports/conference calls, it is a positive sign.  That alone wouldn't be enough, but BP also sports a solid balance sheet with excellent cash flow - lending further support to the safety of their dividend.
As for buying and selling all at once... :foreheadslap:

Put plainly, buying and selling all at once is arrogant.  I will concede that there are times when it can make sense (if it's a very small position or if you must raise cash for another purpose).  But if you make a habit of doing it all at once all the time, you are essentially saying that there's NO WAY your stock is going to go any lower when you buy, or that there is NO WAY the stock is going to go any higher when you sell.  In my experience, timing the bottoms and tops in stocks is impractical if not downright impossible.  From my original post at the beginning of this thread:
Quote:

Once you decide to invest in a specific stock, never buy all at once. Everyone will make mistakes. You want to scale into positions slowly over time, so that you can take advantage of when the market drops. In similar fashion, you want to scale out of your positions by selling over time as the stock continues to appreciate in value, thereby protecting your downside by locking in profits just in case there should be an unexpected drop on the horizon (which you could then consider using as an opportunity to buy back the stock at a lower price).




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Re: Investing in Oil [Re: Stonehenge]
    #9704716 - 01/30/09 09:28 AM (15 years, 1 day ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
But will the recession lift and raise oil along with it?




More than likely. I wouldn't touch oil futures until you start to see a bottoming process in the US. When manufacturing data, housing, industrial output and eveything related starts to show a a slight uptrend, or at the least a solid bottom has been put in, then i'd be long oil big time.


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Stock Update for February 2, 2009 - SDS [Re: geokills]
    #9726591 - 02/03/09 12:22 AM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Sold my 25 shares of the UltraShort S&P500 Proshares (SDS) at $80.32 for the quick 10% gain.
Sitting on about 50% US Large/Mid Cap, 7% International, 12% short 20-year Treasury, and 30% cash.

It's really a shame I didn't drop more of that Proctor & Gamble (PG) at $58.  They guided lower in their recent quarter, showing weak sales possibly because consumers are trading down to less expensive private-label products.  On the bright side, there will be some dividend support as the yield is now 3%.  PG has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1891 and has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years.


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Stock Update for February 6, 2009 - CELG, PWR, WMT, GS, MS [Re: geokills]
    #9750524 - 02/06/09 03:58 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Jobs number came in with 598,000 jobs lost last month, including an upward revision to jobs lost in December.  Things are not good, but the market continues to see strength likely derived from a hopeful take on the forthcoming stimulus package that is set to be voted on either tonight or on Monday.  The new treasury secretary is also supposed to be giving details on a new plan to help the banking system on Monday.  Of course, the last time we've been waiting in eager anticipation of similar government intervention, we ended up selling off once the news finally hit.  Therefore, I used the continued strength today to reduce my exposure in three names, while adding two short positions.


  • Celgene (CELG) - Sold 18 shares @ $56

    I'm still a big fan of this high growth biotech drug company, however the shares are up over 15% from where I last added to the position only a couple of weeks ago, so I will use this as an opportunity to pare back a little bit after the recent run.  I will look to add to this position again if the stock approaches the $50 level.



  • Quanta Services (PWR) - Sold 21 shares @ $21

    Quanta stands to benefit from increased spending on our nation's electrical infrastructure, and as recently as a week ago was awarded a large contract with National Grid to help improve the New England area's electrical grid over the next 5 years.  Additional spending from government stimulus and a push towards renewable wind energy are future catalysts for shares of this company.  Even so, I last purchased 115 shares at $18 and feel that it is wise to take part of the 16.6% gain and scale back a bit.  This is due to the fact that the stock is up 100% from its low and has been quite weak relative to the S&P500 over the past couple of days.  I will look to start adding to this position if shares fall back into the teens.



  • WalMart (WMT) - Sold 20 shares @ $50

    Just a little bit of housekeeping.  I don't want to have such large retail exposure and decided to cut back here, even though WalMart remains my third largest position as I believe it to be one of the only retailers that can take market share and maintain positive sales growth throughout this period.  I will probably reload if the shares fall back to $48.



  • Goldman Sachs (GS) & Morgan Stanley (MS) - Sold SHORT 25 & 90 shares @ $95.50 & $22.80 respectively

    I like Goldman and believe it will be one of the strongest surviving financial institutions in the world after we emerge from the current turmoil.  However, shares have exploded over 50% higher in the last two weeks.  That is an absolutely incredible move!  Goldman and Morgan Stanley may take this opportunity to do a secondary offering (selling new shares on the market), in order to raise capital to pay back the TARP money that they were forced to take from Uncle Sam in late 2008.  This will in turn dilute their current shareholders and may cause downward pressure on the stock.  I am limiting my losses with a 5% trailing stop loss trigger on these shorts.  News on Monday may cause a pop in these names and I may be stopped out, but as I noted at the beginning of this post - the typical reaction has been to sell the news lately, so that in conjunction with the potential for secondary offerings is why I am shorting these two brokers.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 2/6/2009:
  • 37.2% Cash
  • 13.6% Altria (MO)
  • 13.3% UltraShort 20-Year US Treasury (TBT)
  • 10.3% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.2% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 5.2% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.8% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.7% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 3.5% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 2.5% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 2.5% BP Plc (BP)
  • 2.1% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 3.8% short equivalent Morgan Stanley (MS)
  • 3.8% short equivalent Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
  • 4.4% short equivalent Goldman Sachs (GS)


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Re: Stock Update for February 6, 2009 - CELG, PWR, WMT, GS, MS [Re: geokills]
    #9750554 - 02/06/09 04:04 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

Again, thanks for posting.  Some of us really enjoy this running record, and I for one am learning heaps and gobs about financial dealings.

Quick question.  Are there any events that you could envision that would lead to you just cutting and running from the markets?  I know that intelligent investors, yourself included, usually speak out against selling at the bottom, but I would think everyone has a limit where they just don't feel comfortable remaining in the market, whether because of volatility or just overall declining value.

So can you foresee a scenario like that?  If the markets dropped 50% from where they are?  What if they went down to 2000?  Or would you be more concerned with volatility and single day swings?  Could the market simply become too unpredictable and force you out?

Or is it possible for you and others, by dealing in things like the Ultrashorts that you continue to hold, to make money in any kind of market?

Answer, please.

:cool:


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: Stock Update for February 6, 2009 - CELG, PWR, WMT, GS, MS [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #9751102 - 02/06/09 05:10 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

I doubt there would be a specific number level on any major average where I would just say "forget about it I'm out".  What I can envision happening (and indeed what has), is that I will reduce my exposure until I feel comfortable, based on how I perceive the market to be acting.  Right now I am averaging around 30% cash in my portfolio, whereas a year and a half ago I was averaging around 10% cash.  It is precisely because things are so unpredictable that I have become more conservative, and as I age my risk tolerance will also continue to decrease. 

Since I am still in my mid 20's and hope to have a long ways to go, I believe that I will be comfortable with a fair amount of long-side stock exposure for several decades to come.  If I do decide to completely pull out, I'll surely be telling you why.  More than likely, it would take at least in part some unforeseen emotional circumstance (likely relating to a friend, family or lover) that would cause me to lose focus on the market.  I would hope then, that should this occur, I will have the sense to withdraw until I can regain my emotional stability and focus.


> is it possible ... to make money in any kind of market?

Of course, but it may not be probable!  I am working on becoming a more flexible investor, but we all tend to form habits and styles that can end up biting us in the ass when the trading environment is so unpredictable.  Ivestment professional Doug Kass is someone I have been paying close attention to for the past several months as he seems not to confine himself to a single strategy, instead taking what the market gives him and doesn't hold out hope for things that aren't working.  It's so easy to say that you want to be flexible, yet quite difficult in practice.  It should stand to reason that a disciplined approach including long and short positions (and even protective options or hedging), in conjunction with the ability to recognize when your original thesis has failed, should be able to maintain some level of capital appreciation over multi-year time frames.

You never know until you get there!


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Stock Update for February 10, 2009 - GS, MS, VZ [Re: geokills]
    #9772445 - 02/10/09 02:35 PM (14 years, 11 months ago)

As I suspected on Friday, the market has held true to form and sold off on the news out of Treasury today regarding the bank bailout, for which they didn't even give many details after all of that buildup.  Selling pressure has been tremendous with more than 90% losers on heavy volume, indicating institutional distribution.  This paints a bleak picture that indeed we could be retesting and potentially breaking our November lows in the near future.  There are several negative forces looming on this market including oil breaking through $40 and potentially heading back to $33, as well as a strong dollar which will be a headwind for many US-based international companies.

As one last glimmer of hope, the S&P did settle this afternoon while maintaining the uptrend from its November lows.  I'm not running to put heaps of cash to work here, but we should be mindful that often the best time to be buying is when the fear is thick and everyone else is running for the exists...


  • Goldman Sachs (GS) & Morgan Stanley (MS) - Covered both shorts from Friday

    I got stopped out of Morgan Stanley before I could win or lose anything, but was fortunate to catch a small gain in Goldman on the weakness today, which I took by covering the shares this afternoon.  Goldman is one of the strongest banks out there and I will be looking for a long-side entry if the stock experiences significant weakness going forward.  It is trading right at its book value, which has historically been a good entry point for a bank stock.  I believe that they will take share and emerge from the current crisis as a financial powerhouse alongside JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).


  • Verizon (VZ) - Bought 75 shares @ $30

    Verizon has 6% growth and a sexy 6% dividend which has a history of being boosted regularly.  It can cut costs by letting go of people who work at newly acquired Alltel and build new business like their FiOS cable/internet system.  They also have the potential to pick up a huge number of subscribers from faltering competitors such as Sprint; have pioneered the text messaging phenomena that has proven to provide a very healthy revenue stream, and have been at the forefront of every smartphone initiative.  Not to mention, the stock is often the first the bounce back after aggregate market weakness and has been holding the $30 very well after having shot off of the October low.  The primary negative here is the drop-off in landlines, but VZ has been readying itself for this for a very long time, and FiOS should more than make up for this downside.  I will buy more on weakness.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 2/10/2009:
  • 31.5% Cash
  • 12.5% Altria (MO)
  • 12.0% UltraShort 20-Year US Treasury (TBT)
  • 9.4% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.8% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 4.7% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.3% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.3% Celgene (CELG)
  • 3.9% Verizon (VZ)
  • 3.7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 3.2% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 2.3% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 2.3% BP Plc (BP)
  • 1.8% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 3.5% short equivalent Advance Auto Parts (AAP)


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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