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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27537567 - 11/10/21 08:48 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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No rush Geo but if you feel like weighing in on any thoughts you have regarding the infrastructure bill passing and how this might impact assets and economics in general 👀
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27537589 - 11/10/21 09:07 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Thank you
Quote:
Generally speaking, you will probably do better with an inflation sensitive security that pays a dividend, such as CVX, an integrated oil company that yields 5% or so annually, and directly benefits from inflationary pressures since their infrastructure is mostly a sunk/realized cost at this point, and thus an increase in the price of their commodity (oil) will boost their margins.
I have Occidental Petroleum Corporation NYSE: OXY which is up 12% since I bought it in June.
Is that close to the same thing?
Quote:
Your TIPS will not rise at the rate of rise in inflation, they will merely track the baseline inflation rate. Inflation is generally targeted at 2% annually, so a 30% increase in inflation is still less than +1% in aggregate inflation gain.
I don’t understand. Is that because 1% is half of 2% and 30% is less than 50%?
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
Edited by TheFakeSunRa (11/10/21 09:12 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 1
#27537820 - 11/10/21 11:53 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
TheFakeSunRa said: Thank you
Quote:
Generally speaking, you will probably do better with an inflation sensitive security that pays a dividend, such as CVX, an integrated oil company that yields 5% or so annually, and directly benefits from inflationary pressures since their infrastructure is mostly a sunk/realized cost at this point, and thus an increase in the price of their commodity (oil) will boost their margins.
I have Occidental Petroleum Corporation NYSE: OXY which is up 12% since I bought it in June.
Is that close to the same thing?
OXY is in the same sector as CVX, however Occidental is a much smaller company than Chevron, and thus Chevron will be more insulated against various issues that may crop up, whether those be capital equipment maintenance/buildout related, or secondary concerns relating to supply shocks that we are seeing somewhat randomly but at a relatively high rate across the global economy, which can in turn harm overall operations. Most importantly, CVX pays you 4.6% (at today's share price) annually just for holding their stock. It literally pays to wait around in CVX, and with inflationary winds at its back, I think CVX looks pretty good right about now, for a somewhat conservative yet stable and income producing investment that has the potential for additional capital appreciation.
Quote:
Quote:
Your TIPS will not rise at the rate of rise in inflation, they will merely track the baseline inflation rate. Inflation is generally targeted at 2% annually, so a 30% increase in inflation is still less than +1% in aggregate inflation gain.
I don’t understand. Is that because 1% is half of 2% and 30% is less than 50%?
Yeah, in the example provided, it looks like you understand the calculation just fine. The bottom line is that TIPS are only good for a conservative capital preservation strategy. If you're not at least 50 or 60 years old, I wouldn't even have them on your radar.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu] 2
#27537824 - 11/10/21 11:58 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: No rush Geo but if you feel like weighing in on any thoughts you have regarding the infrastructure bill passing and how this might impact assets and economics in general 👀
Honestly, I'm not reading into it too deeply. It's government spending, as government likes to do. Dollars will continue being diluted, lowering their purchasing power and (so long as the Fed plays poker and keeps rates low) drives money into risk assets in efforts to keep the status quo well lubricated. This is the same round of musical chairs we've been playing to for a while now... and a ship this big doesn't turn very quickly.
On a personal note, I'm all for utilizing government to improve basic services for all of our citizens.
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27537889 - 11/10/21 12:39 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Thank you so much!
Quote:
If you're not at least 50 or 60 years old, I wouldn't even have them on your radar.
I’m in my early fifties fwiw
I’m thinking like 5% of my portfolio…
I’m concerned about inflation… anecdotal but I was pricing cars about 9 months ago and right now the same lot is selling cars that were going for 12 for 20.
And housing…. Forget about it … and that means rent
So hedges on inflation: precious metals - crypto - real estate TIPS - foreign currency
I don’t know but I’m scared of losing all my buying power
Quote:
Most importantly, CVX pays you 4.6% (at today's share price) annually just for holding their stock.
Goddamn … that’s incredible- are their any other stocks that pay big dividends like that?
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 1
#27538019 - 11/10/21 02:36 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Oh yeah, there are quite a few good dividend payers out there, which would probably be an excellent complement to your portfolio, as they create an inherent bid under their share price, since as the price of shares declines, the dividend yield rises, thus bringing out buyers who want to lock in a good yield.
Here's an aggregation of a handful of them:
Note that if you see a stock paying a 20%+ dividend, it probably isn't sustainable and you generally shouldn't consider a yield that high "safe" -- meaning that it will probably be cut. But there are some rather stable companies out there that pay high yields. PSEC currently yields 8%, NLY currently yields 10%... these have been stable payers for years.
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27538024 - 11/10/21 02:43 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Thank you
Thanks a ton for your great answers and for being Johnny on the spot with the 411
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27539229 - 11/11/21 12:36 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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TAN and TECK are looking pretty nice. These ride the wave of the infrastructure spending bills and are also inflation beneficiaries, but most importantly, their charts are behaving well. I'm starting a position in January 2023 calls (over a year out on expiration), specifically the TAN Jan 2023 $100's and TECK Jan 2023 $25's. Because these are intended to be held for several months, I have my initial bids set at $15 and $7 (GTC til the end of the month), and am leaving room to add on weakness.
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Gorlax



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27539511 - 11/11/21 04:04 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I got a banger coming $SWN... beat Q3.. added to swing positions yesterday up 10% today. This baby recycles rather well. hedgies don't like to see it over 6$ for some odd fucking reason. anything under 5$ i add heavy...
rinse repeat.
Tellurian my prospect in energy right now. $TELL was beaten down pretty bad in the market downturn but the project driftwood LNG facility is coming along really nice. Here is an aerial view of the site location along with other projects the teams have worked on. On the road with Charif in Southwest Louisiana
Southwest Louisiana will be a larger exporter of #LNG than Qatar when Driftwood is complete!
LET'S EAT SHROOMERY
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27539803 - 11/11/21 08:09 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: TAN and TECK are looking pretty nice. These ride the wave of the infrastructure spending bills and are also inflation beneficiaries, but most importantly, their charts are behaving well. I'm starting a position in January 2023 calls (over a year out on expiration), specifically the TAN Jan 2023 $100's and TECK Jan 2023 $25's. Because these are intended to be held for several months, I have my initial bids set at $15 and $7 (GTC til the end of the month), and am leaving room to add on weakness.
Does that mean your buying futures? I have next to no idea what you’re talking about.
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] 1
#27539810 - 11/11/21 08:13 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Tellurian
I looked at this and I have an adjacent stock called Kosmos Energy that has grown 28% since I purchased it in September

That makes me think it’s going to bounce back to 10 but I’ve been warned not to think like that when I look at these graphs but it seems to me like with that kind of history unless it folds it’s really likely
That’s why I bought OXY and it looks like it’s happening
Seriously, if my thinking is flawed explain to me why and I get that nobody knows the future but when I hear the past doesn’t mean shit I don’t think that really applies - sometimes the past does mean shit - but I don’t want to argue a position I want to be taught why I’m wrong so I don’t make stupid mistakes
Edited by TheFakeSunRa (11/11/21 08:31 PM)
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sh4d0ws
LSx


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 2
#27540806 - 11/12/21 04:43 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
TheFakeSunRa said:
Quote:
geokills said: TAN and TECK are looking pretty nice. These ride the wave of the infrastructure spending bills and are also inflation beneficiaries, but most importantly, their charts are behaving well. I'm starting a position in January 2023 calls (over a year out on expiration), specifically the TAN Jan 2023 $100's and TECK Jan 2023 $25's. Because these are intended to be held for several months, I have my initial bids set at $15 and $7 (GTC til the end of the month), and am leaving room to add on weakness.
Does that mean your buying futures? I have next to no idea what you’re talking about.
This video might help you understand. I had no idea what a call or put was until I started reading this thread and learning more about the stock market.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sh4d0ws] 2
#27540891 - 11/12/21 05:55 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Thanks for posting that informative tutorial sh4d0ws .
Keep in mind that while options do provide impressive leverage, that leverage cuts both ways. In fact, unless your strategy is strictly to sell premium (i.e. selling a call against a long common stock position, selling puts with the intention to ultimately acquire the stock at a discount, or selling spreads), the deck is doubly stacked against you due to the fact that most options contracts carry a fairly wide spread (the difference between what buyers are willing to pay and sellers are asking for) as well as fairly expensive time value that is incorporated into the price of the contract and bleeds out quicker as you near the option contract's expiration.
In other words, don't jump into trading options too quickly! They are powerful tools for making (and losing) money very quickly. I have paid very steep tuition and nearly blown up my account twice through a combination of being naive, overly aggressive and disregarding the necessary discipline required to cut losses on options.
PS. Got my initial fill on those January 2023 TAN calls. Still waiting for my $7 bid on the TECK calls to hit.
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sh4d0ws] 1
#27541024 - 11/12/21 07:42 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
sh4d0ws said:
Quote:
TheFakeSunRa said:
Quote:
geokills said: TAN and TECK are looking pretty nice. These ride the wave of the infrastructure spending bills and are also inflation beneficiaries, but most importantly, their charts are behaving well. I'm starting a position in January 2023 calls (over a year out on expiration), specifically the TAN Jan 2023 $100's and TECK Jan 2023 $25's. Because these are intended to be held for several months, I have my initial bids set at $15 and $7 (GTC til the end of the month), and am leaving room to add on weakness.
Does that mean your buying futures? I have next to no idea what you’re talking about.
This video might help you understand. I had no idea what a call or put was until I started reading this thread and learning more about the stock market.
Thank you. Very simple and informative. I have no idea how to buy calls and puts on Robinhood though (not that I even feel ready) - I also like the simplicity of just buying a stock and hoping it goes up. Easiest it wrap my little brain around.
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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sh4d0ws
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 1
#27541173 - 11/12/21 10:52 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I don't personally trade options, as the risk can be a lot greater and it requires pretty strict discipline.
Plan your trade, trade your plan, as geo would say .
I'm not sure if Robinhood offers options but if you ever decide to jump into option trading I would advise not putting too much on the table and see how you do. I assume you're in USA, there are plenty of brokerages you could choose from.
In Canada it's a bit different, I think the best platform we have access to for trading options is Interactive Brokers. For Canadian stocks, Wealth Simple (no commission) and for US stocks most banks as well as Questrade have similar commission.
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sh4d0ws] 1
#27541329 - 11/13/21 04:52 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Preciate the input brother
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 1
#27544242 - 11/15/21 12:38 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Been watching MU for a while now
If it finds higher support here could be looking at reversal
To me, dollar looks bullish and gold looks bullish
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
Edited by Enkidu (11/15/21 01:04 PM)
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu] 1
#27545665 - 11/16/21 12:20 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Grabbed TLRY for 12.55 this morning
First stock trade I've taken in a long time
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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Fiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu] 1
#27545811 - 11/16/21 01:45 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Nice. I'm still holding the bag down like 60% when I bought TLRY at like $20 something
My GORO stocks have been doing good. but still down on those as well.
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery] 1
#27545924 - 11/16/21 03:14 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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That sucks, I lost money trying to take a trade on TLRY a while back
Been keeping my eyes on it for like 7 months now
I'm ready to ditch it if it doesn't hold support but isn't looking horrible atm
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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