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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL] * 2
    #27461525 - 09/09/21 09:26 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Market still pretty ho-hum today.  I don't see anything particularly actionable, and definitely nothing that would make me want to be aggressively exposed right now.  Doubt I'll be making any trades today.

Quote:

CHeifM4sterDiezL said:
One my cousins desk partners pulls down a million a year and this year even more with like some insane spread sheet that looks at bunch metris if mid cap companies and once they reach certain sweetspot with numbers his system likes it executes the trade and he says more times than not the pop into the large cap and that's where he makes his money. He averages like 30% or something crazy




Sounds like your cousin is employing a quant strategy.  Great money managers, regardless of specific strategy, can absolutely net an average 30% annually.  This shouldn't be a retail trader's initial expectation, but with enough dedication (and I do mean dedication - including the ability to pay a steep tuition for a few lessons learned the hard way), it's within the realm of possibility.


Quote:

ManianFH said:
...just learning that there are no perfect cycles in trading. Still chilling on a heap of cash, I guess that’s fine until I have more time to weigh options




I think sitting on a heap of cash right now is a pretty nice place to be.  Trading is a game of executing based on probability alongside a steadfast commitment to unforgivingly disciplined risk management.  I have found that a lot of the time, trading just feels like treading water.  As such, it's not a very spiritually fulfilling use of one's time.  However it does still exercise the mind, and if you have the time and the analytic/game and monetary reward are motivation enough to keep it interesting for you, you will realize that there will be isolated and relatively brief moments in time where you can outperform in such a huge way, as to make the majority of time spent treading water largely irrelevant from a profit/loss perspective.

This is what draws me to the market, the potential to catch (and milk) those rare but insane moves.  This strategy doesn't work for everyone, and more or less epitomizes the difference between the trader and the investor.  It's always a balancing act of figuring out what kind of risk tolerance and time you are able to comfortably commit to your capital allocation strategy.  For most people, long term exposure to a diversified basket of stocks such as the SPY is the most effective way to build generational wealth with stocks.  For those who don't mind white-knuckling it a bit (and who preferably have a steady source of income as a backstop), active trading - especially via options - can be a bit of a thrill while offering outsized rewards, as well as the potential to implode if you don't practice disciplined risk management.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27462508 - 09/09/21 11:43 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Love that sentiment. I think you just defined a nice group of people here - it’s not especially surprising that there are some white knucklers who enjoy the thrill and grind for those moments of glory. There is no denying that I live more on that side of the line than a style of set it and forget it.

Though I do practice some diversification of ‘investing’ via 401K and the like, that is all quite boring to be honest. Also necessary should I, a trader of just above average ability at best, lose my shoes in the Roth via poor timing, luck, or discipline - the latter I try the hardest to get right. Sitting on cash is hard at times because I love the action, but it’s an important practice for the purpose of curbing what could quickly turn into reckless behavior.


Still looking for an entry into a bit more AMZN, might be taking BA off the list until I see a breakout into previous upper range. Don’t think that will be tomorrow but will be keeping a eye on the direction of things


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27462771 - 09/10/21 08:39 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Yuck. Am out for today. Got other things to focus on. Might even shave off the few AMZN I’ve got


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27462863 - 09/10/21 09:49 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Welp, I guess we're all gonna die now.

:billythumbdown:  :fffuck:  :pillpopper: :dead:


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OnlineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler] * 1
    #27463001 - 09/10/21 11:54 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

:whatyougonnado:


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL] * 1
    #27475365 - 09/20/21 08:47 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Wow tanked this morning. Maybe my patience paid off! Now deciding when to get back in. Will watch loosely today but might wait throughout the week. Same targets in AMZN, AAPL, BA


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27475649 - 09/20/21 12:41 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

:panic:  :dontpanic:  :panic:


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Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ
(•_•)
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\(•_•)
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler] * 1
    #27475683 - 09/20/21 01:12 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Is the red related to Evergrande tanking? I pulled my shares out this morning


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Sleepingstar] * 1
    #27476117 - 09/20/21 06:43 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Yes, China's Evergrande (a HUGE real estate developer) has debt due Thursday that they may default on unless the Chinese government "restructures" the company or does whatever governments due to reduce systemic risk.  Because Evergrande is so big, and because real estate in general is such a huge portion of the Chinese economy, there are global financial contagion risks if they are allowed to completely default.  Unlikely to happen, but it could, you just never know.  Couple that with the US Federal Reserve having telegraphed increasingly hawkish tones with regard to reducing accommodative monetary policy (i.e. they intend to stop supporting the market by buying bonds through the expansion of their balance sheet), in conjunction with general sentiments that our knee-jerk rebound from the pandemic's low-lows has run its course, and we have a recipe for risk off.


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InvisibleSleepingstar
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27476665 - 09/21/21 08:05 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

I hope it all works out. From what I have read, China has been spending big money so I don’t see why they couldn’t help that company stay afloat.  How would it benefit anyone to let it go down?


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27476675 - 09/21/21 08:15 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Yes, China's Evergrande (a HUGE real estate developer) has debt due Thursday that they may default on unless the Chinese government "restructures" the company or does whatever governments due to reduce systemic risk.  Because Evergrande is so big, and because real estate in general is such a huge portion of the Chinese economy, there are global financial contagion risks if they are allowed to completely default.  Unlikely to happen, but it could, you just never know.  Couple that with the US Federal Reserve having telegraphed increasingly hawkish tones with regard to reducing accommodative monetary policy (i.e. they intend to stop supporting the market by buying bonds through the expansion of their balance sheet), in conjunction with general sentiments that our knee-jerk rebound from the pandemic's low-lows has run its course, and we have a recipe for risk off.




I read an article yesterday saying those two factors could lead to a 20% correction.


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I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Sleepingstar] * 1
    #27476697 - 09/21/21 08:41 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Sleepingstar said:
I hope it all works out. From what I have read, China has been spending big money so I don’t see why they couldn’t help that company stay afloat.  How would it benefit anyone to let it go down?




This was my first thought too. Nobody fails in today’s world if one of the global economic behemoths doesn’t want them to. It doesn’t mean I’m assuming the best or anything but to see some major correction would be pretty surprising. It all just seems like business as usual, shitty news for keen investors to capitalize on.

Still though, Tighter stops in advance of Thursday.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27476757 - 09/21/21 09:39 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

ManianFH said:
Nobody fails in today’s world if one of the global economic behemoths doesn’t want them to. It doesn’t mean I’m assuming the best or anything but to see some major correction would be pretty surprising. It all just seems like business as usual, shitty news for keen investors to capitalize on.




Yeah, the status quo is usually upheld.  Of course, it's still a wildcard, and risk markets hate increasing levels of uncertainty.  Here is another synopsis I provided to a friend who asked me about Evergrande and its associated implications:

Quote:

Evergrande is a major real estate developer in China, where real estate is a major contributor to its domestic economy and up to 90% of the personal wealth of most Chinese citizens is tied up in the sector.  The mega developer Evergrande has $300 billion of debt coming due this week (Thursday), which it is feared that they may default on.  If that happens, it can create a negative feedback loop by crashing the Chinese real estate sector, potentially creating more defaults, and because major debt issuance like this is shared across banks and private offices internationally, there is a risk of a local default cycle in China becoming contagious to other debt investors in international economies who exposed themselves to it.

It is likely that the Chinese government steps in to "restructure" the company and basically keep it from incurring a catastrophic default, however to what extent the government steps in to backstop is as yet unknown.  The Chinese government is more opaque than most, so you just can't really know what the heck they're going to do, until they do it.  Hence the fear that they act with too much restraint, or don't act at all, creating something of a global debt domino effect.




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InvisibleSleepingstar
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27476991 - 09/21/21 01:42 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Geo, in your opinion, what would it take to create one currency?  From what I have heard is China has been stockpiling gold so I don’t see how they could really have the debt problems that are being advertised.
Have you ever read The Art of War?  Just curious. I haven’t but would like to.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Sleepingstar] * 2
    #27477317 - 09/21/21 06:21 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

I haven't read The Art of War, although it sounds intriguing.

I don't think we're heading toward a single global currency in our lifetimes.  Bitcoin is in a way designed to fill that role, although regulatory backlash and the bumpy rollout of the scale-up technology required for mass adoption will slow the progression; the entrenched financial/national interests (i.e. the powers that be) will not relinquish the control afforded to them by the current monetary system, not quickly nor easily.

China itself isn't having a debt problem directly (although the indirect ramifications of one of their largest private companies defaulting could help catalyze one), and while stockpiling gold may bolster the country's financial resiliency in the event of a sustained global economic crisis, a government increasing precious metal reserves won't directly help non-governmental entities (like Evergrande), as they are funded through traditional non-sovereign debt markets.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27478213 - 09/22/21 12:37 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Accumulated much early this morning, maybe a little more than half stocks vs cash. Am thinking of selling a bit into the end of the day, as thursday could be a little chirp based on the outcome of yadayada China stuff.

I dunno, might just stick 50/50 and see what tomorrow brings. Not sure yet.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27478425 - 09/22/21 03:19 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Looked like a great day to be at the desk at the open.  Unfortunately, I was on Dad duty getting my 4 year old off to preschool and running some bodily fluid samples down to the lab on behalf of my wife, hit Costco on the way back and there goes the day... but at least I have many pounds of excellent cheese, good wine and fresh baked French baguettes in hand!


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27479720 - 09/23/21 04:56 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Haha that sounds like the better day than watching charts, IMO.

I bought back in this morning, and sold all of it by 12 noon. I was too busy at work to set stops so just got out. TD Ameri sent me a warning that I traded too many times and if I did again I would be flagged as a pattern day trader. I did it anyways.

My ROTH has well over $25,000 in it (though this fluctuates between all cash and stocks quite regularly.). So I don’t know if being a pattern day trader has any drawbacks. Did I just mess something up?? Also I feel like this has been my trading style for some time now, why would they suddenly decide to flag it?


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27479730 - 09/23/21 05:05 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

If you're flagged as a day trader I believe you have to keep a certain amount of money in your portfolio

I'm not sure if they suspend trading if you fail to do so or what

I agree that id take that over a day watching the market @Geo

Happy for you man, enjoy

*mania, idk how your platform works but for mine you have 3 day trades per week.

Meaning you can only buy and sell the same day 3 times per week.

Somewhere should give some info on how this will impact your account


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Edited by Enkidu (09/23/21 05:07 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27479788 - 09/23/21 05:51 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Regarding Pattern Day Trading, you get flagged if you make more than 4 or more day trades in a rolling 5 business day period.  It's only ever an issue if your account is less than $25K (or at risk of falling below that level).  If you break the line and your account stays under $25K, you will be restricted to closing positions only for 90 days, or until your account is brought back above $25K.

Regulation run amok, so far as I'm concerned.  :stonedjerk:


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