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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for November 13, 2008 - SDS, DE, FSLR, MO [Re: geokills]
#9244457 - 11/14/08 02:25 PM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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Sorry to have missed the GNW opportunity - once again congratulations to phi on an excellent trade - please keep us posted on your future ideas!
I was happy to have closed my shorts yesterday and saw some very nice gains. Unfortunately, I left my desk about an hour before the trading day closed yesterday, and so I didn't take advantage of the huge pop at the end of the day by putting back on my downside hedge in the way of the ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS). I really should have put a few limit orders in this morning, but I had to rush out the door early to help my grandmother on the other end of town. I got back for the last half hour of trading today and saw the market rolling over a bit, so I quickly put on a small position of 25 shares on the SDS at $94 and saw a 5% gain in the last fifteen minutes (not nearly enough to offset the damage done by my longs, but every little bit helps!).
The market could go either way next week. We were very oversold and if the G20 meeting this weekend brings some sort of coordinated worldwide effort to improve the global economy, if GM gets its bailout and hedge fund liquidations lighten up (which seems plausible since most funds require their clients to make their final redemption requests for the current year by Nov 15th), we could see further upside as people who don't want to miss the bottom continue to pile in. Even so, I didn't like the action today especially at the close, so much swingin' and the overall breadth of the market was piss poor even though a select few stocks were seeing serious strength at some points throughout the day. There may be an attempt by some to manipulate a rally by throwing big money at ETF's and high profile stocks such as XOM (which was up big for part of the day, even as oil was down). In other words, some large investors seem to be buying the market in aggregate, but not through individual stocks so much as through the futures and ETF's. This contributes to the wild swings we have been seeing.
This is why I've started to scale back into the SDS. I have an automatic limit order to buy another 20 shares at $90. If we see more upside next week, that limit will trigger and I will also begin to lighten up on some other positions - such as Goldman Sachs (GS), which is a huge problem for the market. It doesn't seem like the stock should be where it is, but it is where it is... so it makes you wonder what kind of terrible news could be lurking just around the corner, or is this just a mispriced stock? Something is up though, because the company is trading more than 20% below its tangible book value, which is simply unheralded.
Should be another interesting week to come... It was good to see Thursday's rally in addition to the fact that today's pullback was on lighter volume, but we are still in a very fragile state and creating a bottom is a long process.
Here's some positive news I received through Jim Cramer's AAP newsletter today, regarding an energy position I have been building and added to Wednesday at $13: Quanta Services (PWR)
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Some of the largest utility companies presented at the EEI conference and offered their thoughts on capital spending plans, major projects in the pipeline and the credit crisis. I was listening closely to hear for any revisions to transmission and distribution spending plans that could have an impact on Quanta. I didn't hear anything that would change my bullish thinking.
Specifically, most capital spending plans remain intact. The companies said they are reviewing areas that could be deferred but that no plans were in place yet. New generation, non-mandated environmental spending and non- regulated distribution spending are the areas that are being considered for delays.
Importantly, virtually all of the companies said that the need for transmission spending remains on track because so much new capacity is needed for relieving congestion and bringing renewable, especially wind, energy onto the grid.
For Quanta, three very important projects appear to be on track -- TrAIL, PATH and CREZ. CREZ alone could increase the company's backlog 3-5x and is still slated to be announced in the first quarter of 2009.
As for utilities' impact from the credit crisis, they remain largely insulated due to their solid financial position, strong liquidity and access to capital if needed.
So, while I am not happy with the stock's performance in the past two weeks, I am still positive on the long-term story because Quanta is in the sweet spot in U.S. infrastructure spending as utility companies have a mandate by the government to upgrade the utility transmission grid and to build out alternative energy facilities. Under an Obama administration this will only get more positive attention.
At 11x newly conservative estimates, potential for massive increases to the company's current $5 billion backlog and several project wins on the horizon, the Quanta shares are attractive for the long term.
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phi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
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Re: Stock Update for November 13, 2008 - SDS, DE, FSLR, MO [Re: geokills]
#9248415 - 11/15/08 10:35 AM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
so much swingin'
The volatility now is so high, it's terrifying. The nearly 1000-point intra-day range in the DJI index Thurs. was about the same as the intra-year range (in terms of size, not value) in 2005. Scary, scary, scary.
That said, I'm still long - Genworth not withstanding, I've been paying dearly for my belief that there are great deals to be had.
It seems that the markets are creating the economic conditions that will justify their values... not good.
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geokills
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Stock Update for November 24, 2008 - SDS, NOV, KMP, FCX, HSIC, MRO, GILD, GS [Re: phi1618]
#9304403 - 11/24/08 02:13 PM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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I haven't posted any updates in over a week now, though I have been doing a fair lot of trading - especially over the last three trading days. As so many of my trades have been designed to capitalize on the shot-term volatility, it didn't seem worth the while to make a post for each one (not withstanding an unusually busy schedule), though this post will serve to review my moves.
I increased my exposure to the UltraShort S&P fund (SDS) on Wednesday and Thursday last week at $110 and $113, and ended up flipping those purchases by Friday afternoon at $118 and $124 as the market got crushed after breaking through its support levels. Throughout that huge spike that drove us down through our October lows and brought the S&P500 to fresh 11.5 year lows, I also attempted a quick flip on National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Freeport McMoran (FCX), which turned out to be a wash on both accounts. On the upside, I picked up more Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) at $44.50 with its uber sweet 9% yield. Added to my position in healthcare by purchasing some Celgene (CELG) at $53 and added to one of my favorite high yielders Altria (MO) at $15 with an 8.5% yield. My position in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has been closed on the recent strength, as we are not yet out of this deflationary cycle (and I already have a li'l hoard of the physical metal in my safe deposit box).
I also initiated three new positions and closed a long-term position as follows, though it is important to note that the MRO and GILD positions were initiated on weakness last week, and that I am NOT a buyer on strength in this market.
- Marathon Oil (MRO) - Bought 150 shares @ $21 / Flipped 50 shares @ $23
Marathon operates both an exploration and production business as well as a refinery. Refining companies have been crushed, and it looks like oil may finally be reaching a point where it can stabilize. I think the reward outweighs the risk at this level. That alone wouldn't be enough for me to get into this name, but Marathon pays a better than 4% dividend and plans to split its E&P and refinery business, which is the real story that should help unlock a lot of value in this name. MRO also reported a better than expected quarter last month, so this seems like a good way for me to add some more oil back into my portfolio now that the commodity has fallen so hard. If the company proceeds with its proposed split, share value could conceivably double. If the split doesn't happen, I'll still get the dividend along with the potential for a takeover given the incredibly low valuation of the combined company. This stock is already up 15% from where I bought last week, which is why I flipped some of it earlier today.
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Bought 50 shares @ $40
Gilead is a biopharmaceutical company with a strong HIV franchise, excellent pipeline for future products and $3 billion in cash. It has a steady growth rate of 17% and its penetration into international markets along with changes in US and EU guidelines for HIV testing should help it maintain or increase its growth going forward. Two items of note last week brought the stock down hard, including the perception of Obama's socialized health plans as well as a filing by Teva Pharmaceuticals for generic production rights on Gilead's Truvada drug. It is extremely unlikely that Gilead will lose its exclusive rights on Truvada until 2021, and the pressure from the Obama news was an aggregate drawdown on the entire healthcare sector, even though Gilead should be well insulated from federal changes. I think GILD was punished unfairly and will look to increase my stake in this not-so-economically-sensitive healthcare name if the shares fall below $40. Gilead's $3 billion cash position allows it to potentially boost its growth via small "tuck in" acquisitions of other drug companies whose market capitalization has been destroyed by the aggregate market decline.
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) - Closed position at $22
At an average 30% loss, I would rather revisit this name later than hang on for the interim. With a declining global economy and copper prices having fallen substantially, I fear that FCX will end up cutting its dividend. Granted, given its share price decline, the dividend will probably continue to yield a substantial 4%... but the news of and/or anticipation of a cut will weigh on the shares, and I just don't see a quick recovery in copper prices at this point in the cycle. The stock is up 14% today, my last purchase was at $19, and I am taking this one off the books for now. I will be revisiting this name in the future, particularly if shares fall back below $19.
- Henry Schein Inc (HSIC) - Initiated margined SHORT sale of 100 shares at $36
HSIC is a distributor of healthcare products and services primarily to office-based healthcare practitioners including dental practitioners. Reports from industry sources have stated that Henry Schein has been laying off salespeople this month. Equipment sales were weak in their September quarter and will probably continue to deteriorate through the end of the year as dental practitioners have been building out their offices aggressively over the last decade. Stated during the CSFB healthcare conference: "Erosion of personal wealth has caused dentists to be more conservative with respect to equipment purchases." I will be looking to cover this short as it makes its way back down towards $30 - $33 a share.
- Other Actions Taken Today & Thoughts for Tomorrow...
I began to scale back into the UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) this morning, and sold some of my Goldman Sachs (GS) on the heels of its 25% move higher this morning. Given Obama's quick cabinet appointments today and the bailout for Citigroup (C), the market has been able to continue its rally from Friday's close. It is possible that it could continue for a few more days given the extreme levels of pessimism, how low we had gotten and how high the volatility index (VIX) had gone. Of course this is still a bear market rally, and earnings and unemployment loom over the future of the market. I do not expect this rally to last long, which is why I have started to move back into the SDS. My next buy point on the SDS will be around $90, and I am thinking about reducing or eliminating my exposure to JPMorgan (JPM) on continued strength, as I am questioning the sustainability of their dividend (and any financial stock's dividend, for that matter). Some shorts I am considering initiating on continued strength include TLT, GOOG, XOM, FSLR and adding to my newly initiated HSIC short.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 11/24/2008:- 20.8% Cash
- 16.9% Altria (MO)
- 8.7% Walmart (WMT)
- 8.5% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 8.1% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.5% Celgene (CELG)
- 7.5% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 7.0% Quanta Services (PWR)
- 5.0% Goldman Sachs (GS)
- 4.6% Marathon Oil (MRO)
- 4.1% McDonalds (MCD)
- 4.0% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 3.9% JPMorgan (JPM)
- 6.64% equivalent margined SHORT Henry Schein (HSIC)
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs




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Re: Stock Update for November 24, 2008 - SDS, NOV, KMP, FCX, HSIC, MRO, GILD, GS [Re: geokills]
#9326981 - 11/28/08 12:17 PM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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After holding out for months and months waiting for it to bottom out, I finally bought HLX for a little over $4.00. Just in July, this was trading at almost $40.00. It's been getting killed by the abundant supply of oil and the following low gas prices.
In the week since I bought it, I'm up 44%. IMO, it is capable of much more than that, too.
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geokills
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Stock Update for November 28, 2008 - GOOG, TBT, GS, SDS, MO [Re: geokills]
#9327079 - 11/28/08 12:41 PM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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The market has continued to hold its gains of the last several days, but we are approaching key levels of resistance and I am taking precaution. Following are my trades from the last two trading sessions (before and after Thanksgiving):
- Google (GOOG) - Margined SHORT on 12 shares @ $280
Google - while it is undoubtedly not going out of business - derives the vast majority of its revenue through advertising. In a slowing economic environment, advertising will be cut back in great proportion and therefore Google's revenue and growth rate should stagnate until the economy improves. Though shares have fallen quite a bit, its recent break below $300 would signal the potential to test the $200 level, as the stock flew from $200 to $300 in early 2005 after its initial public offering (IPO). This indicates that $200 is the next significant support level, and that is why I am shorting this stock, betting that it can retest that level in the near future. However, it is worth noting that the market is in the midst of a bear market rally, and if we break above resistance levels on the major market averages (900 on the S&P - we closed today at 896), then GOOG could be carried back up above $300 a share. I will stop out this short position (i.e. buy back the shares) if share price breaks above $305.
- ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trsry Bond (TBT) - Bought 75 shares @ $51
This fund shorts US treasury bonds. It will return two times the inverse of the TLT (which is the long form of the Treasury bond fund). You can see the spike on the TLT, and it is unlikely that it will be sustainable. Jeff Dorman outlines the rationale behind this short better than I could:There has been a lot of talk about shorting US Treasuries by either shorting TLT, or buying TBT or PST (the ultra-shorts). I agree with this trade for the obvious reasons mentioned by other contributors:
1) The US Govt will have to start funding all of these purchases through the issuance of new bonds
2) The deflationary trend will come to an end
3) The "safe haven" bid to US Treasuries is a pure technical bid and will end as soon as stability returns to equities and investors continue to put money into munis and corporate debt.
But what hasn't been mentioned is that the US Govt is no longer a "risk-free" asset even though it continues to trade like it is. 5-yr Credit Default Swaps (CDS) in US Govt debt used to trade between 2- 4 bps (essentially risk-less). This risk more than doubled to 6-8 bps between July and September 2008, but you could argue this was still essentially riskless. But US Govt 5yr CDS currently trades around 35-40 bps, and reached as high as 50 bps when equities were at their lows. This clearly indicates that the US Treasury is no longer a "risk-free" rate, and Treasury yields must go wider.
To put this in perspective, one year ago the Investment Grade CDS Index (which is comprised of 125 North American companies rated between BBB and AAA) traded at 35 bps, and in June 2007, 2-year swap spreads (which is an indicator of risk for AA-rated US banks) traded at 40 bps. So the US government is currently perceived to as risky as Investment Grade corporate bonds and US bank bonds were one year ago. Current 10-yr and 30-yr US Treasury yields of 3.1-3.6% are not compensating you for the risk.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) - Sold 13 shares @ $76
Financials have participated heavily in the rally this past week, after news of the Citigroup bailout. I still like Goldman, but I wanted to build up some cash and Goldman had risen some 50% off of its lows. I figured it would be a good time to trim a little bit off of this position. If the stock trends back towards its lows around $50, I will be very likely to buy more on the way down.
- UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) - Bought 40 shares @ $89.50
This fund returns two times the inverse of the S&P500. The S&P as of today's close is sitting right at its resistance level of 900. Likewise, the SDS is sitting at support of around $90. The trends are still intact for the SDS to maintain its upside (and the aggregate market to maintain its downside), however I have a fairly tight stop in place here to help limit my potential losses. If the SDS falls below $87.50, this would indicate the S&P500 rising above resistance and could lead to a rally from the 900 level all the way up to 975 - 1000. At $87.50, I have a stop limit order to sell 50 of my 80 share position in this ultrashort. The following charts should clearly indicate the current support and resistance levels on the SDS and S&P500 respectively:

- Altria (MO) - Sold 100 shares @ $16
Altria is and will remain my largest position, with its especially sweet 8% yield and defensive posture. However if the market does continue to rally, institutional investors may begin to move out of these "safe recession stocks" and begin to put their money back into their favorite growth stocks. You could see this happening over this past week with the weakness in Proctor & Gamble (PG). This is why I am lightening up a little bit on this position, and is the same reason I have a stop limit in place on my Google short... as continued market upside will keep pressure on MO while at the same time helping to lift GOOG. My most recent purchase of MO was at $15, so this can be considered an incremental trade around my core position for a small profit.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 11/28/2008:
- 15.1% Altria (MO)
- 13.6% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 12.1% Cash $$$
- 9.5% Walmart (WMT)
- 8.8% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 8.6% Quanta Services (PWR)
- 8.5% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 8.0% Celgene (CELG)
- 7.0% ProShares UltraShort 20 year+ Treasury Bond (TBT)
- 5.0% Marathon Oil (MRO)
- 4.6% JPMorgan (JPM)
- 4.5% McDonalds (MCD)
- 4.3% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 4.1% Goldman Sachs (GS)
- 6.75% equivalent margined SHORT Google (GOOG)
- 6.86% equivalent margined SHORT Henry Schein (HSIC)
And in the spirit of Thanksgiving, I would like to share this heartwarming piece posted by the Rev Shark over at TheStreet.com's RealMoney subscriber section:
Quote:
Taking a Moment to Reflect and Give Thanks By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 11/26/2008 11:37 AM EST
Although we are dealing with the worst stock market and economy since the Great Depression, it is particularly important this time of the year to take the word "thanksgiving" literally and reflect a bit on the positive things in our lives. Most everyone who is reading this is touched in some way by new problems, issues or stresses caused by this economic meltdown. It is something truly historic, and it is so easy to focus on all the negatives that we lose sight of the positives.
Once again, I'm going to share my story. I've done so every year since I started writing for RealMoney back in 2002, so forgive me if you have read it before, but writing about it is one of my ways of reflecting on my many blessings. I'm hopeful that the story of what I went through may be helpful to others who are facing adversity. We all have challenges in our life, and they can beat us down or make us better. The key is to never give up.
Back in the early 1990s, I was feeling pretty optimistic about my life. I was a CPA, I had business and law degrees from the University of Michigan and was anxious to start building my career as a corporate attorney. It wasn't easy, but I was making progress and even had started my own law practice when I started having an annoying problem with my ability to hear.
There was a history of hearing loss in my family, and had some minor problems with it as I grew up, but it suddenly was becoming much worse. I started to worry that I might be in an important meeting or a courtroom and would not be able to hear. I tried hearing aids and various things, but eventually it progressed to the point where I was no longer able to talk on a telephone or have a normal conversation.
My hearing continued to rapidly decline, and before I could even process what was happening to me I was at a point where all I could do was try to lip-read and rely on handwritten notes. It became impossible for me to continue to practice law, and I soon lost the few assets I owned as I struggled to find a way to survive.
I was deeply depressed, isolated and lonely. I was recently divorced and had absolutely no idea what I might do with my life. I couldn't interact with people and couldn't find a job as menial as serving fast food because I couldn't hear a thing.
One day I stumbled across this new computer service called Prodigy, which to my delight allowed people to interact online without having to hear. I started exploring what was available and eventually discovered some stock market message boards. I had some general knowledge about the stock market from some classes in business school, but this was much different from the theoretical discussions of Modern Portfolio Theory, and apparently some of these people actually made some money now and then by actively trading little-known stocks.
I was living on disability insurance and had pulled together a small stake from an old IRA and a couple other places, but there was no way I could afford to lose this money. My financial security was extremely precarious, and if I could find a way to make any extra money it would help tremendously.
I opened an account at a broker who I could visit in person and communicate with via notes, and I immersed myself in the online stock market discussions. At first, I had some very poor trades, especially when I was focused on some crazy stories and didn't pay attention to the stock price. Very slowly I started to learn that this was all about psychology, emotions and being disciplined. Balance sheets and fundamentals didn't matter in the short term. I had to trade the other investors and traders and their emotions.
I gradually began to develop an approach and style that made me a little money. I continued to read and study everything I could find on the stock market and attacked it daily with great energy and a positive attitude. My small stake soon doubled, tripled and continued to compound. In the late 1990s, the momentum style that I had taught myself worked extremely well, and I soon had surpassed my goal of making over a million dollars from my investing.
Not only was I enjoying tremendous financial success, I loved what I was doing. I wanted to know everything I could about the market. I was always looking for ideas and new stocks, but it was the methodology that was the most important. During the collapse of the Nasdaq in 2000, my discipline prevented me from losing any significant money, and over time I continued to grow my financial stake to levels I never dreamed of.
Not only was the financial success satisfying, I greatly enjoyed sharing the knowledge I had gained in my struggles. I started posted on message boards owned by the Motley Fool and eventually started my own Web site at SharkInvesting.com, and that led to the great honor of being asked to write for Jim Cramer's RealMoney.com.
A couple years ago, an editor from FT Press read one of my prior Thanksgiving columns and asked me to write a book. Shark Investing. How a Deaf Guy with No Job and Limited Capital Made a Fortune Investing in the Stock Market was named the second-best investing book of 2007 by Amazon.com.
So here I am, a guy who not so long ago was completely lost, terribly depressed, alone and couldn't even find a job. Now, not only have I made a lot of money doing something I love, I am able to help other people do so as well.
Not only was my financial life doing well but my personal life greatly improved also. After a few painful failed romances, I finally met a woman who learned rudimentary sign language who could talk with me. Thirteen years ago yesterday we were married, and we now have the greatest loves of my life: our children -- Anneliese who is 7, James III who is 3, and little Samuel, who has his first birthday on Friday.
Medical science also came to my rescue. A number of years ago I received a cochlear implant, which has greatly restored my hearing. Although it is not perfect, I can now carry on conversations without too much trouble.
I never dreamed that losing my hearing and everything I owned would turn out to be one of the best things that ever happened to me. If it hadn't happened, I'm sure I would not be where I am today.
I share this story with you not to brag but so that you too can be confident that no matter how bad your life may seem, amazing things can happen if you don't give up. Every one of us has obstacles and challenges, and if I can overcome what was facing me, I'm sure you can do so as well.
God bless, and happy Thanksgiving
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Stock Update for November 28, 2008 - GOOG, TBT, GS, SDS, MO [Re: geokills]
#9328159 - 11/28/08 04:28 PM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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ETJ is holding up. Its a closed end fund that holds dividend paying stocks and writes call and put options. I think they might protect some of their portfolio with puts, too. Both the NAV and share price haven't fallen too much compared to the rest of the market. How long can they continue to perform?
You can look up the chart here http://www.bigcharts.com You can look up the NAV and share price here http://www.etfconnect.com Total Net Assets and Total Common Assets are the same, so it looks like they don't have any leverage, which is good if the market goes down again. Some closed end funds have had to sell assets to pay off their leverage (ie. AMPS or ARPS).
Also, NAT has practically no debt compared to FRO which might be an advantage over FRO.
Edited by Luddite (11/28/08 04:33 PM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
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Re: Stock Update for November 28, 2008 [Re: Luddite]
#9328832 - 11/28/08 07:14 PM (15 years, 2 months ago) |
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Bought 100 shares QID at $55, 100 more at $77, 200 more at $80, wrote 4 call options at 90 strike price two (2) at $1.85/share and two (2) at $4.30/share. All 400 shares sold (assigned) at $90 strike price 11/23 option expiration. Profit after commissions = $ 7,980.
Bought 100 shares QID at $74.53 and 200 more at $73.13 this Weds. 11/28. Not looking to sell calls, the spreads are too big for one thing, and more importantly the premiums will spike if (when?) this market tanks again. If the market continues up will wait till QID hits support around $60 and buy 200 shares more. Otherwise, when the market tanks again (it will) I will sell in the $95-100 range.
I am long a couple hundred shares Alcoa Aluminum (AA) and a couple hundred shares Valero (VLO). Bought AA recently at $9.66 sold two Jan 10 calls at $1.45 and bought VLO at $30 a while back (OK it seemed cheap at the time) and sold two Dec 17 1/2 calls at $1.84 a week ago. 10+% return in less than a month with downside protection to 15 3/4.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: geokills]
#9344428 - 12/01/08 02:21 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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I was right to key in on the 900 point resistance level for the S&P500. After loading up on my shorts Friday and going particularly heavy on my ProShares Ultrashort S&P500 (SDS) position, the market dove nearly 9% today! Thanks to my short exposure, my aggregate portfolio was down a mere 3% in the midst of this 9% tumble. People will be anticipating a terrible employment number this week and it seems like we may be in for some more hurt. Even so, I used today's weakness to trim 20 of my 80 share position in the SDS, booking a profit of over 10% from my Friday purchases. After hours, I sold an additional 10 shares for a 17% gain. I will continue to trim my shorts as the S&P nears its recent low around the 750-point level.
Unfortunately, I have been dead wrong on my shorting of US Treasuries (the TLT via the TBT ultrashort). But the spike has gotten so steep that I still believe it to be a dislocation of value. If this level on the TLT is correct, it is forecasting an exceptionally overvalued stock market. That is a little scary, as it forebodes serious declines yet to come.
In retrospect, I should also have trimmed more of my new position in Marathon Oil (MRO) last week, which was up over 20% in a matter of a week's time. Today the stock fell over 10%, but I will not take any action at this time. I like the position as a hold with its 4.5% yield (at my $21/share basis) betting on either a splitting of the company's refining and E&P business or a takeover, and may even buy more if the shares revisit their lows around $20.
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


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Posts: 2,946
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: geokills]
#9345214 - 12/01/08 04:15 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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What do you think about holding Proshares shorts or ultrashorts for a couple months or even a year as a hedge? Long positions could include a lot of defensive dividend paying stocks, ETFs, CEFs, etc.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: Luddite]
#9345248 - 12/01/08 04:20 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Makes sense to me. Just make sure you take advantage of big swings by scaling out of and back into the positions as the market gyrates over time. Aside from the fact that I would be missing out on dividend yields, the thought of a portfolio comprised entirely of the SSO and SDS has intrigued me.
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Madtowntripper
Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers



Registered: 03/06/03
Posts: 21,287
Loc: The Ocean of Notions
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: geokills]
#9345288 - 12/01/08 04:26 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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So is there any consensus on how low this thing could go? I suppose that's a stupid question, if anyone knew it would be news.
But it just doesn't make any sense to me. Admittedly, I'm a financial ignoramus. But how can all of these stocks just continue to fall and fall and fall. If you're assuming that most of these companies are in fact, in decent shape, and if the stock is a reflection of the worth of the company, why the complete evaporation of stock prices?
I mean, if these companies are fundamentally sound then why aren't the big boys with money to throw around buying up these stocks like hot-cakes? As low as they are now they HAVE to be great deals, right?
-------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman



Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: Madtowntripper]
#9345758 - 12/01/08 05:33 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Well, for starters, the stocks don't just fall. Last week, there was a huge rally that lasted most of the week.
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: Ferris]
#9345951 - 12/01/08 05:57 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Read this.
President-elect Barack Obama proposes economic suicide for US By Christopher Booker Last Updated: 11:01pm GMT 29/11/2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/30/do3010.xml
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Loc: city of angels
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: Madtowntripper]
#9346280 - 12/01/08 06:42 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Madtowntripper said:
how can all of these stocks just continue to fall and fall and fall. If you're assuming that most of these companies are in fact, in decent shape, and if the stock is a reflection of the worth of the company, why the complete evaporation of stock prices?
Stocks as an asset class, are one of the most liquid - easy to buy and sell on short notice. There are many other assets that have locked up as the housing market crashed and credit markets froze. With people in panic, they demand to liquidate whatever assets can be sold in order to raise cash.
This is why you may have heard the term "liquidity crisis" in the media.
Stocks are the easiest asset to sell on short notice. Therefore, any money manager that needs cash either due to margin calls (a lender calling in a loan) or redemptions (client requests for investment liquidation), will be forced to sell whatever he can in order to pay those to whom he owes.
That is why all stocks, even those of good companies, have faced such sharp declines and been driven to relatively low valuations.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: Luddite]
#9346418 - 12/01/08 06:58 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Luddite said: What do you think about holding Proshares shorts or ultrashorts for a couple months or even a year as a hedge? Long positions could include a lot of defensive dividend paying stocks, ETFs, CEFs, etc.
i don't think i do
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
Edited by LunarEclipse (02/13/09 07:02 PM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS [Re: Madtowntripper]
#9346497 - 12/01/08 07:09 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Madtowntripper said: I mean, if these companies are fundamentally sound then why aren't the big boys with money to throw around buying up these stocks like hot-cakes? As low as they are now they HAVE to be great deals, right?
Perhaps the BIG BOYS are SHORT and pocketing all that money the long bagholders are coughing up in great amounts as they drive the market because they have the cash (and power) to do that?
Edited by LunarEclipse (12/01/08 07:12 PM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 1, 2008 - SDS *DELETED* [Re: geokills]
#9346544 - 12/01/08 07:17 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Post deleted by LunarEclipseReason for deletion: none
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - TBT, PWR, FCX [Re: LunarEclipse]
#9357181 - 12/03/08 10:55 AM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Indeed, it may be a little early for the TBT, but I think it is inevitable and so I will be holding on for now.
On another note, I sold 75 of my 275 share lot in Quanta Services (PWR). Shares are up sharply over the last couple of days and my last buy was 100 shares @ $13. Makes sense to book a little bit of profit now that shares are about 23% higher. Still like Quanta as a long term electrical infrastructure play relating to wind energy.
I'm also happy to have closed my position in Freeport McMoran (FCX) late last month. The company cut production and eliminated their dividend as feared, and shares are down 20% today. This company will benefit from long-term global growth, which will most likely resume in the future, and so I have a "good until cancelled" order for 135 shares @ $15 (shares currently trading at $17).
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - TBT, PWR, FCX [Re: geokills]
#9357304 - 12/03/08 11:26 AM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Indeed, it may be a little early for the TBT, but I think it is inevitable and so I will be holding on for now.
On another note, I sold 75 of my 275 share lot in Quanta Services (PWR). Shares are up sharply over the last couple of days and my last buy was 100 shares @ $13. Makes sense to book a little bit of profit now that shares are about 23% higher. Still like Quanta as a long term electrical infrastructure play relating to wind energy.
I'm also happy to have closed my position in Freeport McMoran (FCX) late last month. The company cut production and eliminated their dividend as feared, and shares are down 20% today. This company will benefit from long-term global growth, which will most likely resume in the future, and so I have a "good until cancelled" order for 135 shares @ $15 (shares currently trading at $17).
I tried to buy a couple hundred shares of TBT this morning, had my order in at 44.35 and it almost touched it. Then the market took off along with TBT. Looks like it's getting close to my morning target again so maybe I will try again. Agree it could go down more but wow such low bond rates. It will surely go up with either any improvement in the credit crisis OR when inflation/higher interest rates come. So a good dual play IMO.
Also was looking at FCX this AM (funny eh?) and agree it still looks vulnerable to the downside. $15 could be about right. Not as attractive after their buyout of Phelps Dodge IMO but still could be a good play. IMO good they cut their dividend and cut back on production it shows they are trying to keep liquid and trimming costs.
Edit: Sold 100 of my 300 shares of QID in 74.53 last Weds. out 80.30 today this Weds. made a little over $550. Still bearish but wasn't fully comfortable with today's flippy action. Rather than try to sell a call against it to hedge my hedge (lol) just pulled some off the table. Still can't seem to pull the trigger on TBT so maybe it's not my time yet.
Check out this site this guy is good www.livewithoscar.com
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: LunarEclipse]
#9360194 - 12/03/08 05:22 PM (15 years, 1 month ago) |
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Thanks for the link to Oscar... that guy's a spaz... and I like spazzes! 
Looks like your target was hit on the TBT, closing today at $44.27. That'd give you a +13% headstart on me! 
I shed 25% of my position in Celgene (CELG) after hours today. Jim Cramer did a major segment on his CNBC "Mad Money" television program today about Celgene. Since the segment aired during after-market trading hours, the stock spiked about 3% above its already 3% gain on the day, so I decided to dump a few shares onto the over-zealous buyers. I will buy these shares back on any weakness. I still like Celgene as a long term investment, and it seems there may be an opportunity for a short-term trade to the upside as well:Quote:
Industry conferences are often just the tradable catalysts that investors need. So Cramer has his eye on this weekend’s American Society of Hematology 50th annual meeting. He’s expecting Celgene to shine, and apparently so is Wall Street, giving traders a chance at a quick profit if things go according to plan.
Celgene [CELG 52.60 1.76 (+3.46%)] is supposed to provide guidance for at least the first quarter of 2009 during an investor dinner Sunday. The Street is projecting revenue growth of 44% and earnings- per-share growth of 36%. If those numbers work out, the stock should pop.
But Cramer likes Celgene far beyond the short term. That’s why his charitable trust owns CELG. Sales of Revlimid, the company’s blood cancer drug, are expected to reach $3 billion by 2012, while orphan drug Vidaza should bring in $409 million next year. Remember, orphan drugs receive special exclusivity status in both the U.S. and Europe as incentive for companies to research and produce treatments for rare diseases. Vidaza, used to fight myelodysplastic syndromes, will face no competition in the U.S. until 2011 and Europe until 2018.
Celgene also has over 100 clinical trials in the pipeline to expand the usage of its already-approved drugs in addition to its continuing development of other new treatments for inflammation diseases and psoriatic arthritis.
This is a company with great earnings visibility, plenty of room to grow, an expected $2.2 billion in cash by the end of the year and no debt. Celgene’s stock is down $25 from its high and trading at only 23 times earnings. Cramer thinks it should be 30 times earnings easy, which would push the stock up to $69 a share.
This is just the kind of stock – biotech – that the Democrats, who just captured the White House, love. And in an economy and market environment like the one we’re in, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better investment. At least Cramer thinks so.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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