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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27255353 - 03/16/21 08:58 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

A fantastic article self-published by the legendary (and presently fugitive founder of BitMEX) Arthur Hayes, which I was intending to post in the Crypto thread, but it has its merits here as well and I'd hate for anyone to miss it.  It will take at least a half hour to digest and I strongly recommend finding the time to chew through it:


TLDR: Long crypto for the inherent inflation risk derived from globally persistent negative real interest rates, and balance that exposure with instruments that can profit from interest rate volatility.

The later can be difficult to source.  For my part, I am considering longer dated put options on the TLT as a more conservative strategy, or possibly long calls on the TBT for a more aggressive strategy.  There are some newer instruments mentioned in the comments of the Hayes article which I will also be looking into, namely TDTF and IVOL.  All of these trades have already started to move.

If anyone has additional ideas here, please share.


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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27255638 - 03/16/21 01:27 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Wtf kind of drawing is that? Anyway looks interesting prob give it a read when I have the time. Thanks for sharing.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #27257367 - 03/17/21 12:30 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

There are some potential counterarguments offered in this interview as well:

An interesting, if not also dense economic dialogue that touches on the subject.  Listening to economists and the layered hedges in their speak is an exercise in the endurance of my attention span... but I do think there were some relevant points made between roughly 15-25 minutes in the interview.  What I took away was the idea that there are two primary avenues to avoid inflationary risk, namely 1) raising taxes or 2) GDP growth catching up to offset debt growth.  Option 2 is unlikely, as the US remains on a path to vastly out-borrow GDP.  So if GDP isn't growing fast enough and debt keeps growing, confidence in the debt erodes, treasuries begin to get dumped, and that money flows into goods resulting in inflation.  This "powder keg" of debt is an underlying instability that can result in a debt rollover crisis when the bond market decides it doesn't want to play game any longer, but one that is difficult if not impossible to time.  History also suggests that interest rates don't reliably predict inflation or disinflation (e.g. 1970's interest rates were not high ahead of inflation, in the 1980's interest rates were not low ahead of disinflation).

On crypto specifically, it is noted that crypto has value because it has liquidity use, useful for anonymous transactions and is in limited supply.  But because there is no barrier to creating substitutes or derivative claims on a crypto asset, the value has to eventually goes to zero.  This is an intriguing argument, part of which I hear from detractors often.  It is true, we see thousands of cryptocurrencies in the sector, most of which aren't unique in their function or design.  I am not sure what the ability to create derivatives on the underlying has to do with the asset ultimately declining to zero however.  If someone with a better understanding of economic theory can put that into layman's terms, I'd be interested to hear it.

The network effect of the leading crypto asset, bitcoin, in conjunction with its ability to function outside of a central authority, seems to place it in a unique position (kind of like gold).  However, I suppose that just as the bond-holders must continue to dance in order to support a sustained growth in government debt, network participants (miners in particular) must be reliably incentivized to continue to support the bitcoin ecosystem for it to maintain value.

I admittedly ducked out of the interview after they transitioned to healthcare and insurance around the mid mark... as I can only handle listening to economists in small doses.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27257378 - 03/17/21 12:35 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Dipping my toe back in the water here, with some small starter positions in PENN, TLRY and RIG.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27260131 - 03/19/21 09:33 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Market remains weak, with a rather quick two day drop from a fresh all time high on SPY back to its 20 day moving average (and its 50 not far below).  I have not added to the small starters from Wednesday, as buyers simply showing up in any appreciable size, although a few issues like UNH, FDX and DKNG do have my eye.  PENN must hold its 50 day moving average for me to stay involved, likewise with RIG.  TLRY I can perhaps give a little bit more room since it is still drifting in a somewhat volatile sideways churn to work off its February blow off.  But in aggregate, not a whole lot to like with regard to the way the market reacted to the Fed's pledge to maintain low rates.  If the market is choppy, you have to trade small or not at all.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27260176 - 03/19/21 10:08 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

I'm having a pretty good quadruple witching day so far

Scalped a bunch of 3/19 expiration calls on raw material stocks and SPY


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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #27260537 - 03/19/21 02:01 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Once again LOL @AMC


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27264257 - 03/22/21 09:14 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

This market still acting fairly lethargic on balance.  I was stopped out of the small position I reinitiated in TLRY and it looks like I'll probably get stopped out of PENN today as well (if it falls below $111.39). The weekly chart on PENN looks really heavy with last week's HUGE negative volume, and with the stock now below its 50 day moving average, I definitely don't want to give this any additional wiggle room.

Let's also keep in mind that the SPY, while it did print a higher high last week, rolled over before it could tag its longer term resistance trendline.  So while we're not technically broken yet, the upside momentum has diminished, and if bond rates continue to push higher, this market is going to have a really hard time keeping float.

Happy to sit on my hands, and to head back out to the coast for a few days :rockon: ... where I can watch the waves crashing instead of the market (...not a prediction, I just thought that sounded clever :tongue2:, in fact we are seeing a decent bounce in the SPY and Q's).


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27264317 - 03/22/21 10:15 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

This article has got me thinking about jumping back in with 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market index, 50% small and midcap.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-believes-small-and-midcap-stocks-will-dwarf-most-other-assets-51616084768

Also, won't rising interest rates affect how much the federal government pays out on interest on the national debt? Seems like that could be a major issue. I think we're paying like 10% of our budget on that now. If it jumps to 30% or 50% shit could get weird fast.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #27264340 - 03/22/21 10:34 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Very bearish on SPY, normally I don't buy puts but I did this time

Also picked up more calls on X. Raw material plays have been the main thing that's been consistently making money for me the last few months.

I wanted to get in on V this morning but woke up late and missed the pump

Early bird gets the worm


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #27264351 - 03/22/21 10:40 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

If you have no where else to put the money, it's not the worst decision you could make.  The thing about the long term debt cycle is that, while we are no doubt approaching levels that warrant some sort of reset, it is exceedingly difficult to predict when that reset will come to pass.  In the meanwhile, policy makers will likely continue to push liquidity and debt into the market as the status quo.  This can go on for a while.  Here's an interesting read by famed Bridgewater Associates founder, Ray Dalio, who has lived through a few market cycles and is a student of history willing to extrapolate the understandings he has developed about the path we are on, and where it could lead.  I've included an excerpt, but the entire article is worth reading.



Quote:

Here’s how the long-term credit/debt cycle works. Credit growth is a stimulant that a) provides buying power that causes spending on financial assets, goods, and services and the economy to go up and b) creates debt obligations that act like a depressant when the time for paying back comes. To visualize how the cycle works, imagine that the economy is a person and government policy makers are doctors. When the economy’s pulse plunges the doctors run to inject a big dose of stimulation into it. When you see them running to the patient and injecting the giant dose of stimulation, you should buy reflation assets like stocks, inflation-indexed bonds, and gold because the response to the stimulation will initially cause these assets to rise before the stimulation passes through to the economy and the patient starts running around. This injection of money and credit into the system pushes interest rates down relative to inflation and down relative to the nominal growth rate of the economy, which pushes financial prices up. When interest rates are below inflation rates and growth rates that lowers debt-service burdens in relation to incomes, which makes it easier to service the debts. Besides the real and nominal interest rate cuts being stimulative, the increased supply of money injected into the system bids up investment asset prices and can cause financial market bubbles even when actual economic conditions are still weak. After the effects on the financial markets happen, the economy (at first) and inflation (with a lag) start picking up. When all this picking up happens, one should expect the “doctors” to start cutting back on the sizes of the doses of the stimulants, and if the patient is becoming a bit manic one should expect them to administer sedatives (i.e., tighter monetary policies).

The problem with administering these stimulations over decades is that they leave unhealthy residual effects in the form of growing and large debt liabilities and assets. As the amounts outstanding grow the risks also grow. When these build up to dangerously high levels, which typically takes place over 50 to 100 years, that causes problems. In these big debt cycles debts grow faster than incomes. That is the “upwave.” Naturally those who lent the money want to get paid with more buying power than they gave when they bought the bonds and those who borrowed the money are carrying extra burdens of having to make those payments. The debts are like nuclear waste that isn’t easy to dispose of. Eventually these debt liabilities and assets become too large and burdensome, so they have to be reduced one way or another. When that realization occurs abruptly it triggers the previously described “run on the bank”—central bank money printing—market action dynamic that I call the “reverse wave.” That is traumatic for those who are holding the debt assets and traumatic for most everyone though it eventually reduces the ratios of debt and debt service to incomes. It is also traumatic for capital markets, capitalism, and economies. During this credit/debt collapse people realize that they don’t have as much buying power as they thought and financial and economic conditions worsen. There is not enough real money and credit so taxes are also typically raised a lot and there is typically a lot of conflict over who should get how much money from whom. For reasons previously explained, it appears to me that we are at that part of the credit/debt cycle.





PS.  I decided to take a swing by doubling down on PENN with Apr $115 calls, as my stop held throughout the morning and the stock is moving above it's VWAP (volume weighted average price).  Still maintaining a full stop on the original starter as well as the newly added calls, at $111.39.  For now, the stock appears to be reverting higher and if that holds throughout the day, I will likely swing at least half of the position overnight.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27264417 - 03/22/21 11:37 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

It's vanguard 401k. They've got all your basic index funds. S&P, smallcap midcap, total market, foreign, domestic, target retirement date, etc...

I've had it all in a stable value fund pretty much since that Christmas crash a few years back. Got back in just a few weeks before the pandemic and quickly pulled out again.


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #27267576 - 03/24/21 02:33 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Fuck the stock market


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Invisiblesh4d0ws
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27267730 - 03/24/21 04:59 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

crypto and the stock market too?

What happened dude?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #27268312 - 03/25/21 04:36 AM (2 years, 9 months ago)

Crypto im fine really but my stocks right now are in the shitter


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InvisibleFiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27268327 - 03/25/21 05:05 AM (2 years, 9 months ago)

I have about $1000 in there it's all in the negative percentile except one. ET- HOWEVER- that is just a stock too.



Stocks are funny. And entire peoples worlds revolve around trading them- but I say this to you all=- Find wealth elsewhere- take your money and run. - Run into investments like your life and your health.




I should do the same with my $ 1000 take it and run right?
That is different than trying to SURVIVE on this shit. The people who rode the gamestop wave blew up penny stocks. - and now they are all worth less than a penny.



I SAID if you got money you can make money but it's getting beat down... I did buy like 25 Uvxy at like 6. 50 just to probably watch it crash and burn but whatever. I can loose $1000 and be better for it.


PS- this is NOT investment advice- it's the flare gun on the stale market.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
    #27268810 - 03/25/21 12:17 PM (2 years, 9 months ago)

Haha you guys are so dire with this stuff. Stocks go up and then down. They’ll go up again. If you don’t touch whatever position you are in (ET I’m not so sure if that is some kind of leveraged position) - just a blue chip and don’t touch it, don’t look at it, you’ll be fine, you’ll almost certainly make money.

By the sound of it people here are not only trying to watch the pot boil, they’re trying to count the bubbles. More often than not the best trade is the one you don’t think twice about, set it and forget it.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27268839 - 03/25/21 12:44 PM (2 years, 9 months ago)



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InvisibleFiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27268882 - 03/25/21 01:13 PM (2 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

mick said:
More often than not the best trade is the one you don’t think twice about, set it and forget it.





I prefer stuff I can hold in my hand for "set it and forget it" approach


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #27268886 - 03/25/21 01:15 PM (2 years, 9 months ago)

I LOL'ed CheifmasterD

:lolwut:

:ytho:



Anyways- I havn't even logged into my stock account today. I don't even care. Let those wallstreet a-holes B and M over this and that. ( edited for language)


I only have $1000 in play here. Sure- one of my cars costs that and I could probably buy another with that- but like- I'm gonna take Micks advice and just "let it ride"


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