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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27235254 - 03/03/21 01:37 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Pretty discouraging action today, took my lumps and sold quite a bit. Still exposed to VALE, RIG, FDX, TLRY and PENN. The SPY tested its 50 day moving average a month ago for the first time since breaking through in early November four months ago, and now we're back down at it again for the second time in two weeks, while failing to make a higher high inbetween. Caution is warranted.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#27235265 - 03/03/21 01:47 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: Well the positions i havent cut i was planning to hold long term
I guess i was viewing those more as investments and not trades.
Am i viewing that wrong?
I was planning on holding some of these long term, like a year min.
If you were planning on holding something long term - then like Geo said - trade your plan. Best to Stop looking at it, because the markets are going to go up, and then down, and then up, and then down again, and then down, and down, and down, and then up up up and down... It might as well be random when looking through a day to day window. If you believe in the stock the business behind the company, so be it. Set it, forget it, and dont try to watch the pot boil. This is a lesson people (including myself) need to continually reinforce, and especially during times of wavering market movement. You will go mad watching it on a micro level, if your plan is macro level. Id recommend that you stop wasting that mental energy.
IMO, if you want a long term fund and a short term active trading fund, maybe separate them into different accounts. Do not even check the long term - if say you just believe in the 20 year outcome of the company - delete the ticker off your iphone. The short term account, create your daily/weekly trading rules and stick to em.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#27235269 - 03/03/21 01:52 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
mick said: IMO, if you want a long term fund and a short term active trading fund, maybe separate them into different accounts. Do not even check the long term - if say you just believe in the 20 year outcome of the company - delete the ticker off your iphone. The short term account, create your daily/weekly trading rules and stick to em.
Excellent advice. Creating separate accounts for different strategies not only saves you the mind fuck of trying to wear multiple hats at the same time, but it also makes it way easier to review which strategies are working for you.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27235273 - 03/03/21 01:55 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Pretty discouraging action today, took my lumps and sold quite a bit. Still exposed to VALE, RIG, FDX, TLRY and PENN. The SPY tested its 50 day moving average a month ago for the first time since breaking through in early November four months ago, and now we're back down at it again for the second time in two weeks, while failing to make a higher high inbetween. Caution is warranted.
Noted. Though a part of me (narrative street part) is anticipating higher broad market movement as a result of the passing of the stimulus bill. I hesitate to call this hope - because I really dont care (aside from getting dat sweet check ). Just anticipating
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27235285 - 03/03/21 02:06 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Oddly i am feeling very comfortable and unbothered by my current losses. Maybe i should be bothered 🤔
I feel as if time and patience are on my side atm.
I will see if this works out or i will discover ive made a huge error and learn a very valuable lesson 
I very much like some of these companies and im not willing to sell their stock for the current asking price.
I follow a guy who trades spy exclusively. He is very skilled.
The other day i saw something about him stating we will see one more bullrun pushing into 414 or so, and he said what will follow is a worse correction than march i believe.
He posts a lot and i dont always pay attention to details or what he says, but again, i did notice every call he makes on spy is deadly accurate to where he has a large following whom all trade in accordance to his TA
I guess all im saying is this guy seems confident we will see a huge correction in the not too distant future and i trust his analysis.
What has been going on in the market i think is all a sign of this.
If we do see a nice run into that range, people may want to consider closing positions and taking what profit they can..
I plan to hold a lot of my current positions and potentially add to them as the price declines and i think in this respect im going to just have to learn my lessons the hard way if this proves a long term mistske.
But i currently feel no stress or worry holding atm.
From what i can tell eventually the market recovers and reaches new highs. When that happens i want these stocks in my possession. And my plan is to have accumulated a decent size holding by that time.
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 1
#27235290 - 03/03/21 02:09 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
mick said: a part of me (narrative street part) is anticipating higher broad market movement as a result of the passing of the stimulus bill. I hesitate to call this hope - because I really dont care (aside from getting dat sweet check ). Just anticipating
Maaaybe. But they've been talking about that $1.9T bill for months, and as soon as the democrats noted that they would use budget reconciliation in efforts to push it through with a simple majority, I think that was the "buy the rumor" moment and that the market has priced it in already. Not saying all that extra currency can't juice the market a bit more, but from a technical perspective, the market looks weak and needs to prove itself quickly, like, tomorrow.
Look at the volume on the SPY. 2/25, 2/26 and now today, just huge volume on these massive downdrafts. In fact, going back to December, almost all of the really high volume days are selling days. There is some concerted stealth distribution at work here. We may yet claw our way out of it, but it's worth being aware of, and to position yourself more cautiously on account of.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27235311 - 03/03/21 02:30 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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I do see what youre saying with SPY chart volume. Will pay attention these next two days and plan accordingly.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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The Mycologist
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#27235320 - 03/03/21 02:36 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Diamond hands Enkidu.
You gotta believe in your decisions and not second guess stuff.
I try to invest in trades that arent super risky so if it goes down I still have confidence it will swing back to at least be net zero.
-------------------- "That you are here—that life exists, and identity; That the powerful play goes on, and you will contribute a verse.” ― Walt Whitman, Leaves of Grass

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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: The Mycologist]
#27235424 - 03/03/21 03:42 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27236521 - 03/04/21 08:15 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Still lots of sellers out there this morning. SPY below its 50. I've closed what little positions I had left. No need to fight this action. Only thing on the books now are UVXY March $8 calls. The way I see it, it seems very possible that the SPY breaks down to test its 200 day, which is still 10% below the current price. That's a ride I'm not interested in taking.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27236656 - 03/04/21 09:43 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Had to exit those UVXY calls at a loss. Back to flat. Frustrating day, as I exited my huge RIG position near the lows only to see it break to new highs. Definitely can't win 'em all and I'm sufficiently frustrated that I don't think I would be making smart decisions were I to stay at my desk. Taking the rest of the day off.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27236824 - 03/04/21 11:18 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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LOL, as if on cue, Fed chairman Powell comes out talking inflation and the market tanks, vindicating the UVXY trade... moments after I had just exited and walked away from my desk. Some days you just don't have it, get unlucky, or both. Disappointing to be sure, but at least I'll live to trade again.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27236837 - 03/04/21 11:27 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Wow, I haven’t been watching, after reading your post this morning and scanning the market action I exited all positions at a nice loss. But by the sound of it I am lucky to have not lost more.
Thanks Geo for posting your thoughts and perspective, I’d still be sitting on a losing pile of sadness right now
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 1
#27236925 - 03/04/21 12:18 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Happy for you mick. You don’t want to be overexposed in movements like these. Now for my mea culpa... to journal and account for my mistakes, with the intention to learn from what I did wrong.
Oh FFS. Today was an expensive lesson in both realized and opportunity costs. These are the days that have me poppin a strong ale at 10am. Grateful for what I have, but my, how frustrating some days can be.
All things considered, I had vastly reduced leverage going into this breakdown, and exited everything before the major slip. That was good. But I nevertheless made a HUGE mistake trying to chase UVXY with an oversized position after it had already started running this morning. By going in too large and with a bad entry, I wasn’t able to hold the trade when it went against me (having originally planned to decide to shut it down only near the close if it wasn’t working - but when I start seeing five figure losses on a day trade, I start to get antsy).
Fast forward a few minutes and the original thesis plays out, but I’ve taken a big realized loss and feel completely out of sync with the market. I don’t think I was necessarily wrong to exit UVXY on SPY’s break to new intraday highs, as it indicated a reasonably strong bounce at SPY’s 50 day, which is not the type of action you want to bet against. The wildcard was the Fed comments that pushed us back into sell mode and broke the key levels (SPY’s 50 and ultimately the intraday lows). Had I been at my desk, I may have got back in, but I missed the initial commentary/reaction, and after getting burned for chasing once, wasn’t prepared to double dip into what could be the same mistake all over again.
The takeaway: Had I started with a smaller position, in light of the poor entry on UVXY, I could have held tight and added when the Fed comments resumed the aggregate drawdown. In that instance, I’d be up five figures on the day instead of down as much. I got cut both ways, and that was my bad. Woke up late and tried to chase the action. A clear lack of discipline, and one I paid for.
At least the beer tastes good.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27237050 - 03/04/21 01:43 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Ah.. am sorry to hear this Geo, I get exactly what happened by your breakdown, and will take that lesson moving forward. Its ok to enter a day position at a with smaller entry than to think welp ill plop it all on right now - which is what I do most often when entering a trade.
I assume that you are probably still well ahead on the year (I think with my exit today I am flat for 2021) - so there is some consolation - but I exited trying to heed your past advice of when you're up make sure not to give it back. We both live to fight another day.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Hikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#27237215 - 03/04/21 03:24 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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What do you guys think about Roblox? Its going public on March 10.
It's a profitable company and I am seeing lots of people talking about buying at open. I'm considering going in at open too but my one issue with it is it might do a BMBL
Don't have lots of experience with buying on day 1. I believe its a good company and there is a lot of retail hype around it.
I'm just at the point where I don't know how the market will react to it at open so I am unsure weather or not to wait for a dip
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#27238328 - 03/05/21 08:29 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Yeah, I'm not sweating it too much mick, just checked the balances on my primary trading account and I'm still up 88% YTD. It just felt like several slaps in the face of a trading day for me. Quite literally my three major moves were all timed more or less exactly opposite of what they should have been 
My discipline is always the weakest when I stay up late and end up waking up late with a fogged headspace, trying to frantically catch up with the action. I need to remember to slow down in those moments and not attempt aggressive reactionary trades as I did with UVXY. Not the first time I've been burned by that instrument either.
Looking at the market this morning. I'm happy to have nothing on the books. A gap higher with no real follow through, and frankly, why would there be? Generally unlikely that people will want to get meaningfully long ahead of the weekend after the action we saw this week. This is the time to wait and watch. We'll see what happens with the COVID relief package into next week. If the SPY closes below its 50 day next week, I would suspect that a test of the 200 day will be next up on the hit parade.
PENN slicing through its 50 day, CGC already well below and closing in on its 200, DKNG three heavy days of distribution, AAPL lower high and moving toward its 200 day, TSLA waterfall/garden hose/yikes (NIO same thing). Just nasty out there, and the positive overnight move in the S&P futures is being soundly rejected. Sit on your hands and let this play out.
Quote:
Hikeadellic said: What do you guys think about Roblox? Its going public on March 10.
I think this is a bad environment in which to go public 
There is a bit of a glut of new stock on the market, all while the price fundamentals are deteriorating. New IPO's, SPAC's, and lockup periods from the 2020 IPO's expiring, allowing early investors to dump their shares (SNOW, for example, is down ~25% after their first lockup expired). With so much supply, and if rates continue to rise, I'd be careful. I generally don't like getting in on IPO's until I've seen them trade publicly for a few days at least, as like you said, there is no way to know how the market will react to it.
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Enkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27238438 - 03/05/21 09:36 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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The OCB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#27238444 - 03/05/21 09:38 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Oh look I tried to grab a falling knife and cut the shit out of myself.
*sigh*
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: The OCB]
#27238527 - 03/05/21 10:43 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Seeing a bit of a "tweezer" bottom on the SPY now, two long lower wicks on the daily chart, with some constructive movement back toward the 50 day. While it is admittedly tempting, it's not something I'm interested in taking the gamble on ahead of the weekend.
Some of the hot air is being bled out of some of the cryptocurrency proxies like RIOT, MARA and GBTC. I have enough exposure to the underlying, but if these continue to sell off next week, I may take a piece.
If I were buying equity today, I would probably be buying FDX & RIG.
Extrapolating a bit further out, I could see the S&P having a bit of a relief rally over the next couple of weeks, stalling out at its 20 day and falling back to create an head and shoulders topping pattern. If broken, one would expect a measured move down to ~$350 on the SPY, which would roughly correspond with the index's 200 day moving average.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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