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OfflineBambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27227161 - 02/26/21 08:39 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
My plan for stocks moving forward

I will be keeping around 65% or so in the market with 35% or so cash on hand at all times

My 65% market exposure will probably be around 75% equity and 25% hedge in the event of a strong correction to the market.

For equity stock, i will plan to take long term positions in strong companies i believe will be successful in the years to come.

I will take profit at some % levels, maybe 10-20%+, and i will buy more when my stock declines to -10-20%+

If the market does begin to correct or turn bearish, i will continue to invest into my long term positions

Will be working out what those positions will be

This is a rough estimate on where i am currently sitting and my thoughts on my investment plan moving through 2021

Any thoughts on this or advice would definitely be welcomed

Will be attempting to fine tune or alter this if need be if there are some main key points i am missing or overlooking

*will also be keeping long term exposure to crypto

Most likely as a long term savings account




Love to see you writing out your plan - keep yourself accountable.

Let us know what you decide for your equity and hedge positions.

My only comments at this point would be
- What is the point of having the cash? Unless youre talking about broader asset allocation beyond your investments/tades
- Be careful in choosing your equity/hedge such that they dont fight eachother and ultimately lead to some stagnation in valuation.


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflineBambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #27227171 - 02/26/21 08:48 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Taking a look at things going into the weekend... no plans as of now, but just setting myself up for how to manage next week.

On the S&P it looks like we are just about at the bottom of a relatively long term channel, I would be expecting a bounce next week (and as I type this we seem to have bounced a bit off of the lows which was just above my trendline). However, on the NASDAQ things dont look as crystal clear as we are flirting with having broken a similar trendline.

Im thinking that I will be patient, but look for some bullish positions to take for next week. Although, the counterpoint would be that I tried to trade a similar move yesterday with a QQQ call at close yesterday and sold this morning at open for only a small gain. Patience patience patience. Ultimately, with the price action of the last 20 minutes, I am feeling much more confident and will probably look to go bullish into next week with a SPY call. Will update later today.

I am currently long on AMD and NVDA.





Edited by Bambi (02/26/21 08:50 AM)


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #27227257 - 02/26/21 09:57 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Nice

Cash - if i would have kept cash on hand, this would have provided an excellent opportunity to add to some of my positions i plan to hold

Could have used it to build stronger positions or make a swing trade, as you mention, i forsee at least a short lived upswing from these lows

I think im going to go long in most positions. I will be patient and wait until i can set a stop loss at support above my entry point

Even if it takes weeks or months to climb there

Starting to lean heavy toward an approach of investing long term

Very uncertain on what to use as a hedge atm, and what % to put there. Maybe i will reduce it to 10% or forgo it all together

Have a great list so far, as soon as im finished ill share my planned long term positions

:super:

This has been an amazing month for me as far as learning and being humbled by the market and being forced to formulate a long term plan to follow through on


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL] * 2
    #27227259 - 02/26/21 09:59 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

CHeifM4sterDiezL said:
Quote:

mick said:
haha for sure, things will go up and down, not gonna try and time the market like a genius, in the long run all those stocks will perform just fine


that being said, just found out my job is coming to an end in a few months. so might just become a full time shroomery daytrader



Look this is a market climate we haven't seen in some time. You people need to seriously chill the fuck out and not fuck up the money for everyone. Idk if I said this here but this isn't some sports bet or fucking casino of haha funny time. This is fucking ppls businesses and jobs and everything else. There's always things to throw money at and leverage all over the place. We need to rebuild this country. Thinking we're all gonna get rich pissing money into the market isn't how we're gonna get it done. Reddit retards that think theyre gonna win a game where they don't make up the rules as we go along is just as dumb as it gets. We can only pray you guys pull ur heads out of ur ass.




Yeah I just don't see it the same way as you do. The markets are and have always been a vehicle used to produce wealth for investors. Sure it can go the other way, but they are literally in place for the very reason you seem to have a problem with. I personally dont have an issue with the manipulation, by makers, traders, or otherwise. I just want to be aware and hopefully be able to capitalize on the knowledge I have.

This isnt a social justice war for me. Its just investing.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineBambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #27227277 - 02/26/21 10:14 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Additional note: I have two different accounts with two different goal - my trading account for short term and technical trades. And my investment account for longer term holds.

Today, in my investment account, I picked up some shares of HIMS to sell covered calls on. I think the business model combined with recent drop and high volatility set this stock as a good target.

My only other notable positions in my investment account are a few spacs (FUSE, PIPP, PSTH, ZNTE), a CCL call, and some AMWL.

Lastly, an update on my trades: After the stronger than expected price action, I feel like I missed the boat and am content with my exposure through my investment account and AMD / NVDA. I dont feel particularly confident going into the close or the weekend, so Ill reevaluate on Monday,


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflineBambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27227287 - 02/26/21 10:23 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Enkidu, Sounds like a plan! I can empathize with the sentiment of holding cash. As mentioned in my previous post - I have two accounts for the purpose of keeping my ideologies separate - trading and investing. In my investment account, which sounds most similar to what youre leaning towards, I have about 15% cash to add to positions on the dips or when I identify new opportunities.

I love the attitude and look forward to hearing more about the development of your plan!


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #27227349 - 02/26/21 10:49 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Thank you!

I feel very good as if i am starting to see things from a better perspective as far as developing a strong plan and seeing it through

This thread has been very influential in my development as i work toward becoming a successful investor and trader

I feel like I delved head first into a rabbit hole and am finally working my way out with a new and improved outlook

Very excited for this journey

If you are interested in spacs, it may be worth looking into

CCIV - EV play
ACEV - semiconductor
THBR - semiconductor
ALTU - Talking with Aeiron, if it goes through, could be a good travel play

I have been eyeing PSTH, ill have to look at the others

I am personally feeling ballsy enough to devote an allocation toward spacs


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OfflineBambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27227353 - 02/26/21 10:54 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Haha, thanks for the tips. Personally, Im feeling overexposed to spacs at the moment, but Ill check those out.


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #27228893 - 02/27/21 09:32 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

TLT saw a strong spike on the daily.

Weekly looks like its in a potential base / support area

Volume is up big compared to average


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27232672 - 03/01/21 08:11 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Rare Earth : MP

Semiconductors : AMD MU ON MX

EV / Battery: PLL TSLA ACB UAVS NIO BLNK LAC LTHM

Energy : IPWR ET PLUG NEE FCEL NKLA SPWR

Steel : RS AREC

Metals etc : FNV BHP VALE SBSW WOR SCCO

Cannabis : TLRY CGC

Other : BUG PSTH SQ TAC BABA BIDU BNGO PAYA
Transportation: CSX ALTU (spac)


Obviously not holding all this

Maybe will go long on some of them. Havent done good DD and will most likely swing trade.

So far

planning long for

MP
ET
AMD
TLRY
Probably TSLA

And some spacs, CCIV ACEV ALTU THBR and non spac but speculative NNDM

Everything else i am eyeing and will be looking to make moves on...

Not sure if i trust to hold much the way the market has been

Have some positions i may close out the end of this week and stay mostly liquid.. Idk

Probably pick up some metal and steel to go long on eventually though. Not sure how i feel about most of the list being geared toward tech

I think i wana hold stock in all those sectors and maybe grab some ETF's as a sort of safer long term play

Really not sure how i wana play the market right now. Not confident

But this is all on my watchlist, i actually have more im eyeing too


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27233267 - 03/02/21 07:52 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Gettin' back in the saddle and here are my housekeeping notes:

Market is still under some pressure, but the SPY did manage to bounce at its 50 day.  Last time this happened a month ago, we had a nice rally.  SPY needs to close above $392.23 to build some confidence that it can happen again.  The Fed has pledged to continue being accommodative, the stimulus bill looks like it's going to pass... but these are things that are already known and thus factored into prices.  Whether or not we get a "sell the news" reaction, only time will tell.  In the meanwhile, stay laser focused on your specific stocks.  Don't hold too many stocks or you'll just be your own mutual fund.  Concentrate on what's working, and keep your trades on the smaller side since we are a bit directionless right now.

That being said...

PENN - I added a little bit to start the week.  Better to buy this at the lower end of its range, but I had closed out the bulk of my position here prior to leaving town and the action this week is strong on good volume.

DKNG - Taking an initial position in this, which broke out on earnings and has a beautiful weekly chart, deep consolidation over the past 4 months and a fresh all time high yesterday.  This is one you kind of just want to sit on I think, not actively trade too much.

TLRY - Cannabis is waking up this morning.  I added a bit to TLRY now that it has reclaimed its 8 day EMA.  CGC isn't looking quite as strong, but it is holding its 50 day and I do have a position there as well.

TROX - Kicked the rest of this one to the curb, had a great short-term gain on half the position, let the other half ride while I was out of town and, well, you win some and you lose some.

RIG - Had a great trade on this when I caught the move off of its 50 day + 200 day EMA (including that monster 1/27 day).  Exited the position entirely and now that earnings are out and the sock is creeping higher off of its 20 and 8 day EMA, I'm back in.  A move above $4.20 would be a strong signal to add.  I would also be prepared to add on a move down to (and bounce) @ $3.

That's all I got for now, best of luck everyone!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27233339 - 03/02/21 08:58 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

DKNG, holding its breakout despite the SPY drawing down a bit... adding a bit more here.  CGC now above its 8 day EMA, PENN and RIG also up handily while the major averages struggle.  Focus on these stocks, they are working.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27234742 - 03/03/21 07:43 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

DKNG staying strong.  Stops should be trailed up on part of this position if you're in the trade, but this one looks suitable to maintain as a longer term core position, based on its weekly chart breakout to all time highs.  RIG trying to push higher, PENN just hanging in there, but overall the market is under pressure and you don't want to be positioned too aggressively right now.


Edit: Out of most of my DKNG for a 25% gain on some April $65 calls.  Will look to buy back on a move back to ~$65.


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Edited by geokills (03/03/21 07:49 AM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27234791 - 03/03/21 08:10 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

VALE - adding a best of breed iron ore miner (used for steelmaking).  Basic materials have been catching a bid, and the stock reported earnings last week, only to be bought on higher than average volume in the wake of the report on Monday and Tuesday.  Still technically in a range, but I think today's aggregate market weakness is giving you an entry here.  (I also added to RIG this morning)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27234807 - 03/03/21 08:18 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on QQQ.  All of the former leadership / big tech, is under significant pressure.  Market continues to melt, rein in the horns, trade small or not at all.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27235071 - 03/03/21 11:11 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
FDX is my favorite stock at the moment.  I love seeing several weeks of sideways price action after a big move up, allowing the 50 day moving average to catch up with price, and creating a base from which to take another leg higher.  I subsequently love seeing price begin to break to the upside, hugging the upper bollinger band on increasing volume.  That is exactly the technical setup we are seeing in FDX right now.


     





Although I was getting all lathered up about FDX back in December when it was pushing through $300, I ultimately had to bail on that trade, as FDX subsequently endured a painful 23% drawdown into the New Year.  Fortunately, this corrective phase did allow some of the hot air out of the stock, and it has been base building since January. There is a nice cluster of moving averages (8 day EMA + 20 day SMA + 50 day SMA) that price is presently moving through sideways. I am starting a position here via June $260 calls, and will look for a move above $265 to add. Appropriate stop levels are $255 (although this is a bit tight since the stock is still technically in a sideways range) and/or $245 (the bottom of the current range).


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27235116 - 03/03/21 11:41 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Im getting killed

Took some positions i planned to hold long and i still plan to but im down substantially

Definitely a learning lesson

Glad i didnt toss all of the funds i planned to use for investing right into the market

Feel like my only option at this point for a lot of these positions is to hold through the storm and wait it out

I wouldnt be surprised if this is only the beginning

I think for the time being ill sit with what i have and sit out with the rest of my funds or take positions in metals i havent yet taken

Idk what other option i have besides selling for a loss and cutting losses which i dont want to do


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27235145 - 03/03/21 11:58 AM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
Im getting killed [...] I wouldnt be surprised if this is only the beginning [...] Idk what other option i have besides selling for a loss and cutting losses which i dont want to do




If you aren't willing to cut your losers, you shouldn't be trading.

Put another way, if you aren't willing to get disciplined about not losing your dough, you won't have any left.  You're going to take losses, face it, embrace it.  To just sit there and let positions you know are bleeding you dry continue to do just that... What are you expecting to happen exactly?  You're hoping that the market will bail you out.  Well the market doesn't know you and doesn't care about how much money you're losing.

If you're going to actively manage your money, you need to take responsibility for your trades.  If you're not able to do that, there is no shame in just buying the SPY, set it and forget it.  If you want to get a bit more granular, pick up sector ETF's, XME in particular, if you want exposure to metals and basic materials.  But stop trying to stock pick and actively trade, if you aren't prepared to be ruthlessly disciplined about it.  You said it yourself... you're getting killed.  Something tells me that wasn't your plan?  And that's not going to change if you aren't willing to plan your trade and trade your plan.

No excuses.  If you were wrong, take your loss and circle the wagons until a new setup presents itself.  If you lose 50% of your money, you need to make a 100% return on your remaining capital just to get back to even.  Don't let the harsh reality of math fuck you up like that.  Your first loss is your best loss.


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27235174 - 03/03/21 12:27 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

Well the positions i havent cut i was planning to hold long term

I guess i was viewing those more as investments and not trades.

Am i viewing that wrong?

I was planning on holding some of these long term, like a year min.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27235223 - 03/03/21 01:08 PM (2 years, 10 months ago)

I can't tell you whether any given trade should be viewed as a long term investment, a swing trade or a day trade.  That's entirely up to you, and there isn't really any right or wrong about how you want to frame your trade.  What will tell you whether you are right or wrong, is which direction the numbers in your account are going and how far away they are from your all time high.

Experience is a good teacher, but you have to practice the lessons you take away.  If your account is continually deteriorating in value, you either aren't understanding the lesson or you aren't practicing it.


VALE spiking higher on volume.  Added.

CGC - Sold.  The stock is being repeatedly rejected and is now hanging off the underside of its 50 day moving average.  I don't like being in stocks under their 50 day moving average, with the rare exception of a news driven washout that I may want to play for a quick reversion.  TLRY is still above its 50 and mostly just trading sideways, so I'm going to keep most of this (although I am still selling a little bit).

DKNG - Glad I took this one off early in the day.  With the market weakening, the stock having a huge breakout this week and then gaping higher this morning, it made sense to take the money as soon as it became clear that there was no upside momentum after the gap open.  It's at an OK buy point now, testing its breakout level near $65, but with the overall market dynamics feeling a bit shaky, I'm just going to watch it for now without reloading the position.


--------------------

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