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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27213259 - 02/18/21 02:45 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

NWN shows a double bottom, but is still basing and trending sideways.  I would not be buying it here @ $48, because the 200 day moving average is coming in just above $50, which coincides with the last three highs/rejections from Nov-Dec, and is therefore highly probable to reject price.  Earnings are on the 26th, which I also wouldn't want to be holding over.  IF there is no big reaction to earnings (which is anyone's guess - you simply cannot game earnings), I would expect the stock to be rejected @ $50, and ideally find support with a pullback/bounce at $45-$46 where the 50 and 20 day moving averages are sitting.  But this thing is, at best, creating a base.  It does not look enticing to me.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
    #27213272 - 02/18/21 02:53 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Fiery, I would strongly suggest you avoid trading in the after hours sessions.  The volume is low, the volatility increased, and it's just not typically a reliable way to trade.  There are some situations where it may work for you, but these are few and far between.

Quote:

Dang- I bought Tlry last night after the bell and it got killed again today [...] I realize how the business is doing and the stock price are not always related- but I need some hope here!




Huge red flag here Fiery.  Hope is not a strategy.  Say it with me... HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.  If you have overexposed yourself on TLRY and are sweating the loss you have right now, you need to exit enough of the trade so that you won't freak out if you lose another 30%.  TLRY @ $1?  I don't see it happening.  But TLRY tagging its 50 day moving average @ $18?  Could be.  I'd be a little surprised to see it fall that far, but it could happen and you need to be prepared for it to happen, if you are committed to holding this stock long term.

Generally speaking, for TLRY to start moving in the right direction, we need to see progression on federal cannabis legalization in the US and the closing of the Aphria merger.  It is not appropriate to be aggressively positioned on cannabis right now.  Today's action makes that clear.  I still think the sector has room to grow, but some of the recent exuberance needs to be bled out and new bases need to be built in the charts before moving meaningfully higher.

Full disclosure, I did actually have a small add of TLRY July $25 calls fill at the low of the day ($10/contract), as I wanted to add a little bit at the 20 day.  But I am under no illusion in believing that this thing is just going to reverse and rocket higher.  Today was a pretty major breakdown.  I will not be adding again unless I see a positive day taking out the prior day's high.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27213303 - 02/18/21 03:14 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Fiery, I would strongly suggest you avoid trading in the after hours sessions.  The volume is low, the volatility increased, and it's just not typically a reliable way to trade.  There are some situations where it may work for you, but these are few and far between.

Quote:

Dang- I bought Tlry last night after the bell and it got killed again today [...] I realize how the business is doing and the stock price are not always related- but I need some hope here!




Huge red flag here Fiery.  Hope is not a strategy.  Say it with me... HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.  If you have overexposed yourself on TLRY and are sweating the loss you have right now, you need to exit enough of the trade so that you won't freak out if you lose another 30%.  TLRY @ $1?  I don't see it happening.  But TLRY tagging its 50 day moving average @ $18?  Could be.  I'd be a little surprised to see it fall that far, but it could happen and you need to be prepared for it to happen, if you are committed to holding this stock long term.

Generally speaking, for TLRY to start moving in the right direction, we need to see progression on federal cannabis legalization in the US and the closing of the Aphria merger.  It is not appropriate to be aggressively positioned on cannabis right now.  Today's action makes that clear.  I still think the sector has room to grow, but some of the recent exuberance needs to be bled out and new bases need to be built in the charts before moving meaningfully higher.

Full disclosure, I did actually have a small add of TLRY July $25 calls fill at the low of the day ($10/contract), as I wanted to add a little bit at the 20 day.  But I am under no illusion in believing that this thing is just going to reverse and rocket higher.  Today was a pretty major breakdown.  I will not be adding again unless I see a positive day taking out the prior day's high.








SERIOUSLY Thank you for this- I really needed to hear that and WOW- another lesson....

Good thing though that I'm only playing around with $1500 or so dollars right now as I learn.


The whole part about not doing trading after hours- and also being prepared for the stock to go down even further and being ready for that is really what I needed to hear.

I feel a lot better now....

You're awesome Geokills! THANKS!

PS- I said it out loud like 10 times
HOPE IS NOT A STREATEGY :grin:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
    #27213326 - 02/18/21 03:24 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

I even said it once :lol:

have bee studying calls, watching videos and trying to wrap my head around it. Dont know if I am just dumb or what but its like a different language.

CBOE's Options Education Online Courses


current video (ill be watching tonight, as it uses my platform)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Jza7ByP6o


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27213619 - 02/18/21 06:36 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

What about ET

That looks like its about to break the fuck out to me.

Was gonna wait and see if it breaks past its 200 ma but it looks extremely bullish to me


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27213639 - 02/18/21 06:50 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

it seems like ET stock is also sort of reliant on federal regulations regarding the Dakota pipeline and such- sort of like TLRY is with Marijuana legislation.


Could be a big gamble, but I read that lots of people are willing to take the gamble because the payoff could be big.

Might be worth keeping an eye on.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
    #27213696 - 02/18/21 07:25 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Im going purely on the chart, excluding fundamentals here, though energy seems to be talked about as a play for 2021

The chart looks beautiful to me

Want Geo to tell me what im missing and why its a bad pick :lol:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27213718 - 02/18/21 07:47 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

yeah get ready to hear it. I remember an ET discussion several months back and Geo took ET out back old yeller style


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27213732 - 02/18/21 07:57 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

:lol:

Well maybe its ready now

Im probably missing some sort of fundamental aspect but idk what it is



Looks good from where im sitting :shrug:

Might depend on if it can break the 200 ma but it looks pretty bullish to me purely from a TA standpoint

Doesnt seem to be any overhead selling pressure from the analysis either.

But idk


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27213815 - 02/18/21 08:58 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

For starters, ET just reported earnings and the stock finished down 1.6%.  That's not exactly a shining example of ample demand from the buying cohort.  Furthermore, when you zoom out, the stock's price is handily in the lower right corner of the chart, AKA the "penalty box".  A series of lower highs and lower lows.  While I understand the temptation in trying to pick a bottom, you have to realize that you are inherently attempting to swim upstream.

All that aside, the stock has been basing for a year now, and has finally regained its 50 day moving average as support.  It is squeezing just under its 200 day moving average, so IF it moves above (and closes above) $7.25, that would retake the 200 day that has served as a ceiling to reject advances over the past few months, and open up the opportunity for a sustainable move higher.  Set an alert at > $7.25, and ONLY if it fires, can you consider taking a position in this.

But honestly, why fight the tide by focusing on losers that may or may not turn around?  The 52 week high list is a much better, minimal effort resource.  These are stocks that are working.  And the funny thing about stocks that hit their 52 week high.. they usually keep doing it.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27213854 - 02/18/21 09:35 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Alright ive been wondering where you go or how you find picks

I guess my apprehension is worry of a fall.

So you wait for the dip to support on a winner, buy in, set the stop right below, and away you go

I got a whole list of winners... :wink:

Ill work through some of them some more and see what i find

Thanks Geo :hatsoff:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27214171 - 02/19/21 05:08 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

I know Geo doesnt like making movws on friday but i took up a bunch of positions this morning.

One of them was a very very small 2 shares of pltr. After i decided it looked like a small atake wager i noticed the comment section was blown waayyyy the fuck up about WSB squeezing it....

Now dont get me wrong, i dont want to take part in any of that anymore after losing a whopping $75 on amc and nok (baller) but i was going to make my small purchase anyway so i went ahead.

2 shares.

But i have heard nothing at all about pltr being a target which makes me think maybe they are doing that move covert which makes me think maybe it will actually work. Idk and idc to be honest.

Just thought id share.

Anyway.. Took up 6 other positions today.

Spent the last 2 days looking and looking and nothing and this morning it looks like there are finally some opportunities on the board.

Hoping it pans out and next week is a good one

If not ill figure out why the moves were bad.

I did have one question. ZTO looks pretty good, wish i would have saw it a lot earlier on the original bounce through its MA's around $30 but it wasnt on my radar.

On the 4 hour it looks to be bouncing nicely, would have places my stop order right below that bounce, i didnt buy because its approaching its previous ath.

Now idk, maybe it breaks through, but this dip seemed a little lagging compared to the other, maybe just me.

Wondering what you would do on this one Geo, would you stay away in anticipation of a rejection at its previous ATH and wait for it to break through before taking a position?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #27214326 - 02/19/21 07:46 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:

Hoping it pans out and next week is a good one




Let's say it again people... HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY :nonono:


Quote:

I did have one question. ZTO looks pretty good




ZTO looks ok, a bit extended after a monster run this past month.  You got a little pullback yesterday to test the 20 day, which passed, but the fact that it fell so deeply below its 8 day EMA for the first time since it's January breakout shows that the strength of the uptrend is weakening a bit.  Nevertheless, buyers remain interested.  I think it's OK, but as you pointed out, last year's highs at $39 are only a buck or two higher than where price is this morning.  If you're buying now, you would want to manage your risk in two ways.  First, through a smaller position size, under the expectation that last year's highs at $39 will be resistance and the stock could retrace to yesterday's low of $35 pretty quickly.  If it breaks through and closes above $39, those would be your signals to add to the position.  Second measure of risk management would be a stop below $35.

Quick note on PLTR, as I have traded this one a few times and do keep it on my screen.  Today's pop is an opportunity to lighten up for those who were trapped in the breakdown.  The convergence of the downtrending 8 day EMA at the now flat 50 day SMA @ ~29 is very likely to keep a lid on this stock.  What we are seeing today is a "throwback" to test those key averages.  Selling over the past three days (since earnings) has been on HUGE volume.  This is simply not a good setup for sustainable upside.  You could set an alert just above the highs of its earnings selloff $30.45, and if price moves through that level, it would be a safer trade to take.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27214345 - 02/19/21 07:56 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

:lol:

Hope as in i hope my discipline and diligence proves satisfactory

Yeah i stayed out of ZTO

I thought the last dip was weak and might be showing a rejection at its highs. Seemed better to stay out for now from a risk assessment standpoint :wink: (im learning)

I anticipate a pull back and if so i might try to catch it, but im also not interested in it long term.

If i was i may have just bought some now.

Im realizing im more gearing toward long term investment into places i really believe in, and swinging the dips as they (hopefully :lol:) prove to be winners. And obviously if they prove not to be a successful company or investment, exit and go elsewhere.

But i was interested in your take on a situation like ZTO since i wasnt really sure, and imagine i will see things like that in the future with stocks i hold.

Appreciate your feedback as always


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27214367 - 02/19/21 08:11 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

TROX - Post earnings and attempting to move out of a high base.  Very orderly trend.  Buying here.

PENN - Doing a little sideways rest right above its 20 day.  This is what you like to see, stair stepping higher.  Already have a full position here so not really doing anything, just like the way it looks.

CGC - Some good volume this morning.  I am adding a little bit here on the bounce.  Lots of pain overhead, but didn't dip below yesterday's bloodbath close, so I don't mind taking a bit more here.  TLRY not behaving as well.

MMEDF - Bounce at its 8 day EMA.  Not adding, but sitting on some from below.  If you don't have any and like this, you could buy here (although buying closer to the 50 day would be better).


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27214432 - 02/19/21 08:48 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

:takingnotes:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27214446 - 02/19/21 08:56 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Geo, youre 100% right on SWCH, but its a tiny it of capital so I'm gonna give it some time since it has closed the previous gap and stabilized a bit. If i were a smart man, I would be out already tho. Still haven't done anything with NOK... need to just pull the trigger there.
Quote:

geokills said:
Quote:

Enkidu said:
Ive been looking at charts all morning.

I am starting to think 50 day ema on the hour is a strong indicator for buying and selling.

It is looking very consistent across the board as a buy and sell signal.

Is that too much of a generalization or is this relatively accurate?




Quick note on proper semantics.  A 50 day EMA is a 50 period moving average on a daily chart.  If you're using a 50 period EMA on an hourly chart, it's the 50 hour EMA, not 50 day.

Put simply, there is no universal study/indicator that will work for every stock chart in the universe.  You have to figure out which studies/indicators are relevant to the chart you are looking at, as well as in the specific timeframe you are looking at.  I don't find a 50 period average on an hourly chart particularly instructive for my style of trading.  But that's not to say it can't be, depending on the chart and how you choose to trade.  I've gone over my chart setup numerous times throughout the life of this thread, click here for the most recent example (this will be the third time I've sent it to you :wink: ).




Do you any other favorite periods other than 8? Any words of wisdom on VWAP for someone who hasn't used it before?

I tend to use just the price for most of my TA, but look more at moving averages when I'm looking at the 15 minute and under candles.


Edited by Bambi (02/19/21 08:59 AM)


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #27214631 - 02/19/21 10:30 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

I think the longer you plan to hold the further you need to look at with the trends

NIO and LI are starting to look like they might be bouncing back, XPENG looks like shit to me :lol:

Keeping them on my radar

PLUG and WWR both look to be bouncing back as well


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi] * 1
    #27214810 - 02/19/21 12:36 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Bambi said:
Do you any other favorite periods other than 8? Any words of wisdom on VWAP for someone who hasn't used it before?



The 8 EMA, 20 SMA, 50 SMA, and 200 SMA+EMA tend to be relevant on most charts across multiple time frames. 

VWAP is important for intraday trading, as money managers that are accumulating positions will always try to beat the end of day VWAP by buying at or below VWAP, making it a fairly reliable intraday "bounce" target for stocks that are trending higher on the day.  Conversely, if a stock is trending lower, money managers that are selling will try to sell at or above VWAP.  Hence on a stock that is trending down intraday, VWAP will usually be the reversion level from which price falls back and resumes its down trend.

The moves in TROX today are fairly supportive of these indicators.  You can see that the 8 period EMA on a 5 min chart held the early action of the day as buyers were the most enthusiastic.  Once that average broke down, VWAP continued to hold price, as all of the subsequent reversions to VWAP resulted in buyers coming back in to kick the stock higher.


   


If you are taking a really fast moving day trade, attempting to ride the first hour's move in a stock like this, you want to keep a partial position stop just below that 8 period EMA on that 5 min chart.  You would then have either 1 additional stop just below VWAP if you are trading for pure short-term momentum, or 2 additional stops (one just below VWAP and one below the morning's low print) if you are taking a slightly longer term swing trade that you want to hold at least overnight.

Note that the 8pEMA on the 15 min has also supported TROX today as it moved higher (and how yesterday when sellers were in control after the earnings release, that same 8pEMA on the 15 min suppressed price for a good portion of the day. 


     


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27214819 - 02/19/21 12:43 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Someone was watching AMD

AMD is looking poised to move.

MU i suspect might see a bit of a pull back but MU is performing phenomenally

Wouldnt be surprised to see both do well long term with this chip shortage and demand for a tech heavy future.

My buddy works back home at a Jeep factory, he is getting hours cut from work when he normally works 20 hours of overtime.

So the shortage is definitely being felt

Talk of Biden to conduct a review of key US supply chains, including batteries, rare earth metals, and semiconductors.

Part of the reason ive been so bullish on MP as a strong long term hold. Very bullish on semiconductors as well.

Trade wars.. Jesus man..

Keeping my eye out for battery play, maybe ALB?

Will be on my radar, coming off a strong ATH and not ready for an entry, and havent done any DD on it, but on my radar


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