Home | Community | Message Board


This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   North Spore Cultivation Supplies   Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale

Jump to first unread post Pages: < First | < Back | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | Next > | Last >
InvisibleFerris
PsychedelicJourneyman
Male

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
Re: Stock Update for October 22, 2008 - FCX, GE, SDS [Re: Luddite]
    #9117066 - 10/22/08 05:13 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

I wouldn't touch anything Ford


--------------------

Discuss Politics

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLuddite
I watch Fox News
 User Gallery

Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
Re: Stock Update for October 22, 2008 - FCX, GE, SDS [Re: Ferris]
    #9121826 - 10/23/08 03:17 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Closed-end panic could bring bargains
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/closed-end-fund-panic-could-bring/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6DABBA9%2D4386%2D4D2A%2DAD41%2DBB8B23A4F0DD%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&symb=DVM&sid=1928098

Open season on closed-end funds
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/buyers-market-closed-end-funds/story.aspx?guid=%7B014B579F%2D8E99%2D4A8E%2DAFA9%2D4E1A5C9AEBEB%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&symb=EOI&sid=1853223

Closed-End Fund Bargains
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122210317148063307.html?mod=MKTW&ru=MKTW

Look at news here:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=eoi&sid=0&o_symb=eoi&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0

--------------------------------

Some interesting yahoo message board posts:

Quote:


Look on ETF connect, lower left, at the difference between total common
assets and total net assets. In an unleveraged situation, these should be equal:

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/global.asp?MFID=3707

http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/muni.asp?MFID=3821

I don't entirely agree with Keltus on the leverage issue, as firms with
bank loans subject to call should now be safer than they were a few
months ago.

Much of what you're seeing in generally staid CEFs is blind panic.
This is not to say that such panic couldn't bring the World down but
merely that it's a day late and dollar short as is usual in these
predominately retail media.





http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_A/threadview?bn=228&tid=48547&mid=48555

Quote:


Look at DVM and RFI at Cohen and Steers. The dividend at DVM is 50 % return of capital but 50 % of that is pass through of depreciation and ammortization from the portfolio holdings. It is selling at a 14% discount to NAV and pays monthly. 30% Reits, 20% utilities and 50% large dividend paying stocks. I believe it is a conservative income with growth play and also no leverage.





http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_A/threadview?bn=59387&tid=75&mid=76

Quote:


Amigo, RNP RPF and RTU are all leveraged closed end funds. They may hold great stocks but timing can be everything. Look into RFI an unleveraged REIT CEF. If you don't believe bad things can happen top good CEFs look at FFC, This is a CEF of 80% preferred stocks that went from 22 to 6 because it was leveraged among other things. DVM is another unleveraged fund with 30 % reits. Leveraged CEFs are very dangerous right now so be very careful.





http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_R/threadview?bn=15171&tid=74519&mid=74556

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Stock Update for October 29, 2008 - FCX, SDS, DE [Re: geokills]
    #9154491 - 10/29/08 02:43 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) - Sold 40 shares @ $29

    As those of you following along know, I picked up a block of 35 shares at $28 last week.  In addition, I made another purchase of 45 shares last Friday at $23.85 (which I neglected to post an update for - though I had previously stated that my next buy point would be at or below $25).  Since shares have rebounded over 20% from that level in only a few days, so I am flipping 40 of those shares into cash today.  On continued strength, I will continue to sell - even though I plan to keep FCX as a core position in my portfolio for years to come.  While it shouldn't have trouble paying its dividend and has made its way through economic turmoil before, a deflationary environment is not the place to sit around and hold an industrial mining stock like FCX.  Nevertheless, I think the selling has been overdone, which is why I was recently buying at $23.85 and $28.  The plan here is to continue trading around this position as the overall volatility in the market allows.


  • UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) - Plan of action

    If the shorts continue to get squeezed tomorrow morning and the averages are up huge at the open, I plan to increase my exposure to this fund which returns two times the inverse of the S&P500.  We've seen a nice rally here, but our problems are far from over and we will likely be twisting around for a while, and could even experience another substantial leg down.  I intend to use the SDS as a downside hedge in order to make better use of the wild swings in the market - unfortunately I didn't sell any of my position on Monday when I could have booked a nice profit... but on continued market strength, I will make this position larger and be quicker to sell incrementally as the market goes down.


  • Deere (DE) - Plan of action

    Shares are up huge in the past two days, up at one point 15% today alone!  Unfortunately, I wasn't at my desk and didn't have an order placed, and so did not take advantage of it.  News out of Agco noted that the health of the US farmer remains very strong and their ability to get credit is good.  They also reported that production was up due to strength in global demand, and that there were no cancellations.  That's very good news and should bode well for Deere, but with such a rapid move, I would like to make a quick sale and book my staggering 50% loss in this name to offset the realized gains I'm sitting on for the 2008 tax year.  I would look to repurchase the shares, as I believe in the long-term fundamentals due largely to the issue of global famine and the need for more efficient farming and farm equipment.  This is the smallest position in my portfolio, and if we get a pop tomorrow morning, I will look to close the position at $38 - with aim to buy it back below $35.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 10/29/2008:
  • 25% Cash
  • 14.6% Altria (MO)
  • 9.0% Walmart (WMT)
  • 8.0% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.9% Celgene (CELG)
  • 6.0% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 5.2% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 4.9% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 4.8% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 4.4% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 4.3% Goldman Sachs (GS)
  • 4.2% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 2.9% Deere (DE)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Stock Update for October 30, 2008 - SDS, DE [Re: geokills]
    #9162310 - 10/31/08 12:09 AM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Just a quick note that I did indeed close my position in John Deere (DE) today on strength,
and added 12 shares of the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) to my portfolio at $90 a piece.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Stock Update for November 4, 2008 - SDS, FCX [Re: geokills]
    #9191159 - 11/05/08 07:49 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Just another quick note to tell you that I added 13 shares of the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) to my portfolio yesterday at $80 a piece.
I also sold 30 shares of Freeport McMoran (FCX) at $32.50, as the stock had advanced 36% from where I had purchased shares two weeks ago.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 5 months
Re: Stock Update for November 4, 2008 - SDS, FCX [Re: geokills]
    #9192143 - 11/05/08 10:32 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

I made a bunch of (virtual) money on SDS in the shroomery VSE game today, good choice...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #9194178 - 11/06/08 09:15 AM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Given the way the market has been working over the past several weeks, it's nearly impossible to just sit around and expect to make money on your positions.  As my style hasn't been centered around quick short-term trading, I'm learning to use the SDS as a hedge against all of the long positions I've been building.  Currently, I have been buying the SDS in approximately 7 - 10% scales.  That is, as the market rose off of its recent floor, I have been steadily increasing my position by buying a chunk of shares everytime the SDS has lost 7 - 10% in value.  My last purchase was at $80, and I have a buy order in for another chunk at $73.  At $95, I will begin to switch bias by lightening up and selling some of the shares.  In fact, this is what I aim to be doing with all of my positions, though I've only really made it work well with Freeport McMoran (FCX).  My other positions have not tended to swing as much (or I just haven't been quick enough on the draw to catch the swings).

I did add a few new positions to my portfolio today... one long and two short:


  • Quanta Services (PWR) - Added 175 shares @ $16

    Quanta Services is a provider of specialty contracting services, with 57% of their work attributable to electric power, 14% to gas, 17% to telecomm and cable television, and 12% to ancillary services.  They reported better than expected earnings this week, beating estimates by 3 cents a share on better revenue growth.  Organic growth was up 27% from last year, though if you exclude special work from Hurricane Ike, sales increased 15% from last year, which is still very good.  The company has improved cost controls and therefore improved its operating margins to 10%, which was within its target of 9 - 12%.  The backlog sports $5 billion dollars of contracts and they even announced a 120-mile transmission infrastructure project in Oklahoma that isn't included in the backlog number.  With Obama winning the election, there is likely to be stronger support for alternative energy, from which Quanta will benefit as it is heavily involved in building the transmission systems necessary for wind power farms.  The stock was down over 20% after its quarterly report, due to concerns over future guidance.  Since the report also came on a bad day for the market (down 5%), it seems that the selling was overdone.  Unfortunately, there is no dividend on this play, but with the strong backlog and favorable political environment, I would like to increase my energy exposure with a power play on wind energy and this one looks great.


  • Deere (DE) - Sold SHORT 100 shares @ $36

    I've seen this stock get crushed already, and in fact I recently closed my long position on this farm equipment manufacturer at $37.50.  I should have initiated this short when the stock breached $40 on monday, and granted this is a little risky to be putting on a short on the second day of a strong downdraft, but I still think it can make a solid short-term trade to the downside.  I would not be surprised to see the stock revisit its lows, so here I am betting against it.


  • First Solar (FSLR) - Sold SHORT 25 shares @ $143

    With other more traditional energy sources coming down in price, it is likely that solar energy will take a little while longer to be adopted in the manner people had been anticipating when oil was trading at $140 and natural gas at $12 (oil is now closer to $60 and natural gas closer to $6).  Solar also appears less cost effective at the current time when compared to other alternative sources such as wind energy.  With FSLR trading at a Price to Earnings multiple of 43, I believe it can easily revisit the $100 level in the near future, hence why I am betting against it.




Discretionary Portfolio as of 11/6/2008:
  • 20.7% Cash
  • 13.8% Altria (MO)
  • 9.3% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 8.9% Walmart (WMT)
  • 8.4% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.8% Celgene (CELG)
  • 5.4% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 5.2% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 4.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 4.5% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 4.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 4.1% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 3.8% Goldman Sachs (GS)

  • 6.7% equivalent Margin SHORT First Solar (FSLR)
  • 6.7% equivalent Margin SHORT Deere (DE)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Edited by geokills (11/06/08 11:19 AM)

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: geokills]
    #9195067 - 11/06/08 12:09 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Here's a video by Dan Fitzpatrick, a chartologist who I have enjoyed following for a couple of years.  Now of course, chatology can never tell you the whole story, but the following video he posted to his website does reinforce my decision to have added to my UltraShort (SDS) position, as well as opening up a couple of individual short sales on industrial and high multiple stocks such as Deere (DE) and First Solar (FSLR).  Check it out:

http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/1549.cfm


I'll also note that we'll probably be seeing some nasty unemployment data coming out Friday, which will likely prevent the market from experiencing much upside in the meantime.  This is just a really tough market, the swings are so crazy!  Take for example my recent initiation of Quanta (PWR) at $16.  That was 22% lower than where the stock closed Monday, and my position is already down some 6% intraday. 

I'll tell ya, this market is not for a weak stomach! :crazy2:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAroundtheSon
Learning to See
Male User Gallery


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: geokills]
    #9196954 - 11/06/08 05:33 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

please tell me more about "selling short"?

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #9197168 - 11/06/08 06:08 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Selling short is the same principle as buying a stock long, except in reverse.  In other words, instead of buying a stock betting that you will be able to sell it higher, you are selling borrowed shares in the stock, betting that you will be able to buy them back lower later to "cover" the shares you originally borrowed.  You typically have to have a margin account (an account that allows you to borrow money from a broker - i.e. trade on margin) in order to sell short.  The process is then automated by the brokers, so they will automatically lend shares when you sell short, unless there are no shares available in which case you won't be able to short that particular stock. 

It should be noted that when you buy a stock (going "long"), your losses will stop once the company is bankrupt and its stock hits $0.  But because stocks can go up an infinite amount, your potential losses when shorting a stock are infinite.  Though in all liklihood, your broker will automatically close out your trade after you have lost enough money that they fear you won't be able to pay back any additional amount.

On that note, I hit my $95 target on the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS), and sold 10 of my 55 share lot into its strength today.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLuddite
I watch Fox News
 User Gallery

Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: geokills]
    #9208059 - 11/08/08 04:38 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Jim Cramer and some other people talk about dividend paying stocks.  What do you think about them.  Look at NAT and FRO, for example.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLuddite
I watch Fox News
 User Gallery

Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: Luddite]
    #9208091 - 11/08/08 04:45 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblejohnm214
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: Luddite]
    #9208107 - 11/08/08 04:49 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

So what?  I don't see what that link demonstrates.  Given that berkshire has beat the snp for the past year, and past five years actually, I don't really see the point of your link.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinephi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: johnm214]
    #9217981 - 11/10/08 12:57 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

This morning I bought some GM and GMAC bonds.

GM Bond 7.2% 01/15/11 bought for 34.75
GMAC Bond 5.85% 01/14/09 for 88

I don't think the automakers really should be bailed out, and I doubt any bailout will really return them to profitability and assure their longterm survival. That said, I believe a bailout is coming - the Democrats control congress and Obama said as much in his recent speech.

This might not help holders of common stock, but it should be good for bondholders. If a bailout doesn't help the company raise private capital, what good is it?

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDickhead
2 Times
Female User Gallery

Registered: 01/24/05
Posts: 28,769
Loc: groin
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: phi1618]
    #9218934 - 11/10/08 04:08 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

I just scanned through this whole thread reading much of it... 

Wow.  What an Exciting world.

I believe I am going to read everything I can over the winter.. Come spring/summer I might sell my house and get into er'.  I think I would do an Ok Job for myself.   

This winter I'm going to manage a 'Practice' Portfolio see if I Burn up or get results.

Thanks Guys.


--------------------
Multiplied

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAroundtheSon
Learning to See
Male User Gallery


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2008 - PWR, DE, FSLR [Re: Dickhead]
    #9219007 - 11/10/08 04:22 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

i've been using Google Finance for my practice portfolio - you can make multiple portfolios under the same user name. It's pretty nice.

Good luck.!

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Stock Update for November 12, 2008 - GS, PWR, SDS, FSLR [Re: Luddite]
    #9231635 - 11/12/08 03:56 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Luddite said:
Jim Cramer and some other people talk about dividend paying stocks.  What do you think about them.  Look at NAT and FRO, for example.



I think dividend paying stocks should be the primary focus of any portfolio at this juncture,
well, at least any long portfolio.  A collection of dividend payers and short positions is
what I'm focusing on.  But you need to make sure that the dividends are safe.  I worry
about the tanker/shipping companies, as the Baltic Freight Index has fallen off a cliff:



This is a direct measure of shipping prices, and indicates that companies like NAT and FRO may experience serious reductions in revenue and cash flow over the current and coming quarters.  Because of this, I would not trust their dividends as they will likely be cut.  However, if you can find companies that are not in need of financing, and that are making at least twice as much money as would be required to pay their dividend, you should be able to consider those dividends safe, and they should be the companies you invest in.  To use examples from my own portfolio, I'm thinking here of Altria (MO), Kinder Morgan (KMP), McDonalds (MCD), JP Morgan (JPM), and maybe Freeport McMoran (FCX) (though this one involves significantly more risk that the others).  Those are the most bountiful dividend players in my portfolio, but I also hold Proctor & Gamble (PG), Walmart (WMT), and Goldman Sachs (GS) - the former two hold extremely safe dividends.  In fact, eight of my eleven long positions are dividend paying stocks.



Now for a mid-week update of my own trading activity:
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) - Bought 36 shares @ $77 & $65

    I didn't post an update for a purchase I made on November 7th, at $77 a share.  Unfortunately, the stock is down 14% from that level, which is why I made another purchase today at $65.  The banking sector is still facing strong headwinds, and even though Goldman may post its first losing quarter in its history as a publicly traded company, I still believe that this bank/broker will emerge as one of the stronger players when we see through the current crisis.  Now this doesn't mean I won't flip some shares on strength (you just have to in this unpredictable and volatile market), but I do like the company, and being able to purchase it below its IPO price and at 0.8x book value seems like a solid choice.  A well known analyst at Sandler O'Neil Investments has suggested that GS would have to see nine consecutive quarters like the current fourth quarter in order for its tangible book value to drop to where the stock is currently trading.  Though that risk is very much on the table if we were to plunge into depression, I don't think it has a high likelihood of materializing.


  • QuantaServices (PWR) - Bought 100 shares @ $13

    It is really amazing how bad this market is.  If you are going long, you literally have to expect your stock to go down, which is why it is so important to move in small increments while volatility is at such extreme levels.  This specialty contractor which primarily services the electric power, gas, telecomm/cable TV industries and should benefit handsomely from the move towards wind power over the coming years, is down a whopping 24% from where I initiated the position only last week!  While it will be a rocky road, I have lightened up on energy and really like the long-term story here, especially with an Obama administration, which should place greater focus on alternative (and especially wind) energy.  This is not a quick flip, though I will of course trade around the position as the market permits.


  • UltraShort ProShares S&P500 (SDS) - Sold 10 shares @ $97, 10 shares @ $100, and 10 shares @ $105

    Remember that this investment returns two times the inverse movement of the S&P500.  As we are nearing the bottom of the trading range which has developed over the past month (between 850 - 1000 on the S&P), I am lightening up on this UltraShort.  Now, to be sure, we could break through these levels and experience another leg down.  While I acknowledge the possibility, my discipline would have me lighten up on this position now in order to protect the 10% gain I've earned here.


  • First Solar (FSLR) - Bought 10 shares to COVER at $115

    I initiated a margined short position on this solar energy stock last week at $143.  This means that I had borrowed shares and sold them, betting that they would be going down, so that I could buy them back to "cover" my borrowing.  This trade has worked out very well so far, with the stock down some 23% by the close today (meaning I am up 23%).  I covered a little less than half of the position, as shares were hit an exceptionally painful 16% today alone.  I will continue to cover this position as shares near $100.  The stock has such a high multiple, and with other energy sources coming down in price, the drive to solar power may not occur as quickly as people had been anticipating.  While the stock may see a bit of a relief rally along with the broader market and any alternative energy talk coming out of Washington, I don't believe it will have legs for a sustained rally for quite some time. 


  • Genworth Financial (GNW) - Considering a short-term flip

    As per phi1618's recent actions, I like the idea of playing flips on depressed stocks that - while the companies are in serious trouble - should be able to survive for at least a few weeks or months longer.  These slow and painful deaths can allow for opportunities in playing the volatility before their ultimate demise comes to fruition.  Below $0.95, I am interested... though make no mistake, this is an extremely speculative and high risk play.


  • Altria (MO) - Considering Adding to Position

    This stock is getting SO darn appealing, with its juicy 7%+ dividend which is very safe.  Smokers smoke in hard times as good.  With its recent acquisition of UST Smokeless Tobacco, Altria stands to benefit from synergies and increased market share.  This is already the largest position in my portfolio, but I would be happy to add to it at $16.25.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 11/12/2008:
  • 24.3% Cash
  • 14.9% Altria (MO)
  • 10.1% Walmart (WMT)
  • 9.5% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 8.7% Goldman Sachs (GS)
  • 7.7% Quanta Serivces (PWR)
  • 7.3% Celgene (CELG)
  • 5.6% JP Morgan (JPM)
  • 5.3% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 5.0% Kinder Morgan (KMP)
  • 4.7% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 4.2% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 3.4% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)

  • 3.1% equivalent Margin Short First Solar (FSLR)
  • 6.3% equivalent Margin Short Deere (DE)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleLuddite
I watch Fox News
 User Gallery

Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
Re: Stock Update for November 12, 2008 - GS, PWR, SDS, FSLR [Re: geokills]
    #9231770 - 11/12/08 04:18 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Did you see the video over here?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_N/threadview?m=tm&bn=12304&tid=19453&mid=19461&tof=13&off=1

There's a difference between tankers and bulk shipping.  I read one article in the WSJ about a shipping company recently that was planning on converting some of its ships to tankers.  There seems to be indications that tanker companies are doing better than bulk shipping companies.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Re: Stock Update for November 12, 2008 - GS, PWR, SDS, FSLR [Re: Luddite]
    #9231836 - 11/12/08 04:28 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

You may very well be right.  But as you can see, my portfolio is already a little bloated! :wink:
I just don't have a mind to do my own research on that sector right now...

I will note that of all the shippers, FRO seems to be among the best of breed.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,563
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 1 day, 6 hours
Stock Update for November 13, 2008 - SDS, DE, FSLR, MO [Re: geokills]
    #9237120 - 11/13/08 12:57 PM (15 years, 4 months ago)

Well we broke through our intra-day lows of Oct 10th today, which triggered some automatic stop-loss selling that took us all the way down to 818 on the S&P 500.  Because this is a significant level and many major market participants have indicated that they will be buyers on a retest, I believe we could see a near term bounce here.  All the same, it is extremely important to recognize that things are not good!  I will take a moment to relay commentary I read this morning by Dan Fitzpatrick on RealMoney.com:
Quote:


The S&P 500 is right back down to test the Oct. 10 low. My bet is that any bounce is short-lived.
Why? Because things are going from bad to worse. This is what you hear at bottoms: "Oh my gawd!
Can things get any worse? I don't think so!" When you hear that, then you know it's time to buy.

So what are we hearing now? "Can things get any worse? Well, I don't know -- because I don't even
know how bad things are now. Come to think of it, I don't even know what the heck is going on!"

This isn't the time to step in and listen to some of the permabulls on CNBC who have liked this
market all the way down. They sound really smart, but they won't make you any money. When
things cannot get worse, it's time to buy.

Memo to the permabulls: Things can still get worse.




Because there are a lot of hedge funds that are trying to push the market towards a positive side bounce (we are up 48 points or nearly 6% on the S&P from our intra-day low that occurred only 90 minutes ago!), I am covering my shorts.  I have also picked at one of my favorite stocks with a healthy and high dividend.


  • UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) - Closed position with 10 shares sold @ $110 and 5 shares sold @ $107

    For the reasons stated above, we are at a critical support level that will probably hold for at least a few days.  As the media begins to talk about a "successful retest" of the intra-day lows of October 10th, we'll probably see some sort of relief rally at this point.  I have made some solid change on this UltraShort trade, netting an average of around 15%.


  • Deere (DE) - Closed Margined Short position with 50 shares covered @ $32 and 50 shares covered @ $31

    Same reasons as above, netting 12.5% on this one week trade.


  • First Solar (FSLR) - Closed Margined Short position with 15 shares covered @ $125

    Ugh, this one irks me a bit, though I certainly shouldn't begrudge a profit!  It's just that I had a limit order to cover this short position at $105 this morning, and the stock tagged $105.05.  Unfortunately, I didn't suck it up and cover earlier in the day, and now I find myself covering at $125 for the same reasons previously noted.  I will probably jump back on this short if shares can make their way towards $150.  Between my two covers on this position, I have netted 14.6% in one week.


  • Altria (MO) - Bought 100 shares @ $16.25

    Adding to my largest position at its 52-week low (though it did break $16 very briefly during the height of today's selloff).  This domestic tobacco company produces Marlboro cigarettes, has huge market share with very safe cash flow to support its nearly 8% annual dividend yield.  People won't stop smoking, and Altria recently purchased UST Smokeless Tobacco, which will increase its market share and provide for cost savings and other synergies.  This company is one of the safest to invest in given the current environment, and I'm happy to reap their heady dividend while I wait for the UST merger to progress and the stock to recover over the coming years.


  • Random Thoughts

    Quanta (PWR) is up almost 11% as I write this, Freeport (FCX) is up 12%, Celgene (CELG) up 5%.  Goldman (GS) along with most financials continues to lag the market, but is above my last purchase level of $65.  So as you can see, I am preparing for a little bounce here by closing my shorts and having adding to Altria, Quanta, and Goldman at or below current levels.  I do not have the fortitude to get on the Genworth (GNW) trade today that phi brought to my attention yesterday, as without any downside hedges on my portfolio, I want to make sure I don't risk too much.  Heck, if I really wanted to throw my caution to the wind, I would be buying the ProShares UltraS&P500 (SSO) today... which I almost did.  In fact, it would have been a great trade, but I'm fairly conservative by nature.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 11/13/2008:
  • 23.2% Cash
  • 15.8% Altria (MO)
  • 9.0% Walmart (WMT)
  • 8.5% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 7.5% Goldman Sachs (GS)
  • 7.3% Quanta Services (PWR)
  • 6.7% Celgene (CELG)
  • 4.9% JPMorgan (JPM)
  • 4.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 4.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 4.1% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 4.0% Freeport McMoran (FCX)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < First | < Back | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | Next > | Last >

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   North Spore Cultivation Supplies   Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 508 509 )
geokillsA 252,685 10,172 03/27/24 11:59 AM
by budmanman
* The software engineer industry lifeiswhatyoumake 204 2 03/24/24 11:31 AM
by lifeiswhatyoumake

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
297,609 topic views. 0 members, 1 guests and 0 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.037 seconds spending 0.008 seconds on 15 queries.