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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#27199316 - 02/11/21 12:42 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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All fiat, cept a little MARA, my only green friend today
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: InnerWisdom] 1
#27199341 - 02/11/21 12:57 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Fiery said:
Quote:
geokills said: Added to those UVXY $10 calls expiring next Friday.
Aww snap. I should probably add some more too. - What is your target price and when will you sell? 10.42 seems a good buy price
UVXY is generally not an easy trade, as the instrument is constantly losing value due to its structure. I'll readily admit that it is typically a losing trade more often than it's a winning trade for me... fortunately those occasional wins produce outsized returns. My holding period on this is generally 1-5 days, and I use weekly options that are 1-2 weeks out, to avoid paying too much premium. Because UVXY is a leveraged instrument, the options tend not to decay in value as quickly as your typical option might, which is why I use such near dates.
As for my current position in the UVXY Feb $10's, a move above $392.28 on SPY (the current high) will break the trade and I'll take the loss -- in fact, I will probably exit on any move above today's high of $391.69. Remember to always focus first on your risk, not what you might be able to gain. Because this one is a fast mover, I have a ladder of sell orders that range between $1.60 - $4 per call option (my average basis is ~$0.90). These sale levels correspond to an underlying price of anywhere from $11-14 on UVXY. Note that my upper end of intended sale is below the highs of the last rally UVXY took at the end of January. This thing is jumpy, you have to bag the gains when you have them, and you have to exit quickly if the market proves to be more resilient than you had anticipated. Generally not a trade I recommend others to follow.
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InnerWisdom said: And diversify! 30-50 stocks is what modern portfolio theory recommends
Yikes, I have no idea what "modern portfolio theory" is, but if you're trying to keep track of 30-50 positions, you may as well just buy the SPY and save yourself the trouble. I spend a lot of time, daily, managing anywhere from 2-8 positions. If I have more than that on my books, I find it is very difficult to keep up, at least given my style of trading. Also, if you are actively trading, you necessarily want to concentrate into what is working/outperforming. If you have 30-50 stocks in your bag, you're going to have a pretty hard time outperforming a diversified index such as the SPY, imho.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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CHeifM4sterDiezL
Chief Globerts

Registered: 07/28/10
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27199348 - 02/11/21 01:02 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Cannabis taken to the cleaners. Tilray absolutely hosed.
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27199403 - 02/11/21 01:26 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
Added to those UVXY $10 calls expiring next Friday.
As for my current position in the UVXY Feb $10's, a move above $392.28 on SPY (the current high) will break the trade and I'll take the loss -- in fact, I will probably exit on any move above today's high of $391.69. Remember to always focus first on your risk, not what you might be able to gain. Because this one is a fast mover, I have a ladder of sell orders that range between $1.60 - $4 per call option (my average basis is ~$0.90). These sale levels correspond to an underlying price of anywhere from $11-14 on UVXY. Note that my upper end of intended sale is below the highs of the last rally UVXY took at the end of January. This thing is jumpy, you have to bag the gains when you have them, and you have to exit quickly if the market proves to be more resilient than you had anticipated. Generally not a trade I recommend others to follow.
I really appreciate the advice on UVXY .I will keep a close eye on it. - Awesome help as always!-
And about Tlry- wow- there are some serious hearts broken. Same with OGI
Focus on the next big win guys!
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery] 1
#27199420 - 02/11/21 01:38 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Not mine . I'm just sitting here licking my chops, as the price moves closer to my reload level for those TLRY June $30 calls. Needs to fall another 10-15% to get a fill on that order. Today is a painful day for anyone holding however, and so it's going to take some serious work to chew through that regret for a resumption of the upside. Would look for a gap down tomorrow as an opportunity to begin rebuilding a position, but I don't think you need to be too quick (or too big) in getting back in.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27199464 - 02/11/21 02:14 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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I can see the CNBC headline now: "Stocks snap 8-day winning streak defying all expectations that markets only go up."
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#27199489 - 02/11/21 02:32 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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All my stocks are in the red today except
LKYSF
and
MMEDF
Up about 10% each! Way to go, psychedelic stocks!
I'm still up about $500 from my initial investment and if I get close to dropping below my initial investment I'll pull out entirely and call it a learning experience- re-evaluate - and re-enter. but so far I'm still way in the green overall. *finger's crossed.
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The OCB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
#27199755 - 02/11/21 04:56 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Something is going to test this high of the S&P soon. Nailed UVXY, tricky fish but tasty to eat when you catch it.
At the same time though, I remember feeling this same way months ago and stimulus talks pushing sentiment forward/positive. I agree that the market is exhausted, but I'm also not sure the firesale is here yet. Cannabis getting a little of what is deserves today quite frankly. Only sensible thing I've seen in otc for a while lol.
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: The OCB]
#27199771 - 02/11/21 05:06 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
The OCB said: Something is going to test this high of the S&P soon. Nailed UVXY, tricky fish but tasty to eat when you catch it.
At the same time though, I remember feeling this same way months ago and stimulus talks pushing sentiment forward/positive. I agree that the market is exhausted, but I'm also not sure the firesale is here yet. Cannabis getting a little of what is deserves today quite frankly. Only sensible thing I've seen in otc for a while lol.
Because this market isn't a retail-driven mania bubble like 2000. It's a bubble propped up by the Fed, and the Hudge Funds know better than to fight the Fed; Hence: "Do Not Fight The Fed." What we're in is a Fed-driven bubble, that's been straddled by the deep-pockets like Dr. Strangelove riding the missile. When it does come down and it will, it will go boom taking out a lot more (innocent & not-so-innocent) people than 2008.
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: The OCB]
#27199779 - 02/11/21 05:10 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
The OCB said: Nailed UVXY, tricky fish but tasty to eat when you catch it.
What do you mean by this? You mean about what Geokills said?
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
#27199786 - 02/11/21 05:16 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Fiery said:
Quote:
The OCB said: Nailed UVXY, tricky fish but tasty to eat when you catch it.
What do you mean by this? You mean about what Geokills said?
UVXY is the leveraged version of the VIX, or basically the VIX x3. You have to time it perfectly, because it constantly depreciates in value.
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#27199845 - 02/11/21 05:38 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
BayerPhi said:
Quote:
The OCB said: Something is going to test this high of the S&P soon. Nailed UVXY, tricky fish but tasty to eat when you catch it.
At the same time though, I remember feeling this same way months ago and stimulus talks pushing sentiment forward/positive. I agree that the market is exhausted, but I'm also not sure the firesale is here yet. Cannabis getting a little of what is deserves today quite frankly. Only sensible thing I've seen in otc for a while lol.
Because this market isn't a retail-driven mania bubble like 2000. It's a bubble propped up by the Fed, and the Hudge Funds know better than to fight the Fed; Hence: "Do Not Fight The Fed." What we're in is a Fed-driven bubble, that's been straddled by the deep-pockets like Dr. Strangelove riding the missile. When it does come down and it will, it will go boom taking out a lot more (innocent & not-so-innocent) people than 2008.
This is important, because I do not blame the Fed for doing what they did. If they didn't act, things would be a lot worse today than they already are.
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ashfiken
TotalCrazyasshole


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#27199866 - 02/11/21 05:45 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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So completely, and one hundred percent a personal plug here for the health sector but my blood brother just established his company on the New Zealand stock exchange today... Ticker :TAH This company will do nothing but win and Advance and proliferate in this space and my brother is a fucking business wizard. Look into this.. invest please on me and my family’s part for good faith love and all the greatest this awesome cornucopia of knowledge has to offer.
Peace and prosperity to all. It is a good day in my head whether you all invest or not bc my family(untethered to my wants and desires) is thriving.
-------------------- hmm... "I'm naked and fearless... And my fear is naked." "life isn't worth living without the threat of death" "I got my plans in a ziploc bag, let's see how unproductive we can be" "nobody lives their lives fully except for bull fighters" My Trade List
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#27199913 - 02/11/21 06:00 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
BayerPhi said:
Quote:
Fiery said:
Quote:
The OCB said: Nailed UVXY, tricky fish but tasty to eat when you catch it.
What do you mean by this? You mean about what Geokills said?
UVXY is the leveraged version of the VIX, or basically the VIX x3. You have to time it perfectly, because it constantly depreciates in value.
So- like - I bought in at 10 and it's dropping down below 10 now- does that mean it will just go to zero and I should pull out now?
I was trying to figure out if "nailing it" meant that people should sell UVXY or hold it now.
Thanks for your patience in helping me understand. - I have a relatively strong position in UVXY now- which is why I ask.
I did read a huge article on it and I'm still a bit fuzzy. The UVXY went sky high to over 100 in march...
So you're saying that there is a change it will never go back over 10 and will just keep going down to zero?
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27200002 - 02/11/21 06:47 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
As for my current position in the UVXY Feb $10's, a move above $392.28 on SPY (the current high) will break the trade and I'll take the loss -- in fact, I will probably exit on any move above today's high of $391.69.
So it looks like SPY finished at 390.71......
Are you going to hold UVXY or take the loss? I'd rather take this 10% loss than lose it all. As you said:
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#27200299 - 02/11/21 08:22 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said: Enkidu, here is my $0.02 on AMD. By all means, trust Geo more than myself, but I enjoy charting and practice makes perfect.

It still has a bit of a downtrend to break within this consolidating uptrend that it is in. The big move would be to break above the consolidation channel that it is in, but the more probable move is to trade from the bottom to the top of the channel. Could look more interesting in 1-4 days, but at the same time with the NASDAQ in what I feel is a precariously high position, I'm not looking for too much exposure to tech stocks (I already have NVDA which I'm looking to exit in the next week or so). Side note; I'm terrible at timing my positions, I either get in too early or get out too soon, so definitely take my timing guesses with a grain of salt.
@Geo, any ideas how to make the image smaller? I'd love to post more charts, but I hate how big and disruptive it is.
Appreciate that man.
Im honestly thinking about closing down a lot of my positions and being a bit more meticulous with my money.
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
#27200361 - 02/11/21 09:00 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
The UVXY went sky high to over 100 in march...
So you're saying that there is a change it will never go back over 10 and will just keep going down to zero?
Just zoom out and look at the monthly chart for UVXY. This thing loses value so fast it's gone through I don't even know how many reverse stock splits just to keep it from trading at fractions of a penny. It's only good for short-term hedging and capitalizing off of market panic. It's a very difficult trade to make, but it can make you feel good about things when the rest of the market is on fire. Generally a better idea to just move to cash though.
I did not close out my UVXY Feb $10 calls today, because the SPY did not close above the morning highs. However, the close was strong enough that I probably should have shut half of it down. So tomorrow, if we move above $392.28 (the S&P's all time high), the trade will be closed. Caveat: If we get a gap higher opening, I will wait to see if sellers come in soon after the opening bell, before deciding to close the trade.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
#27200506 - 02/11/21 10:13 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Yeah, I feel the same way. I blew my account up last May being a perma bear, so I already don't have as much capital to play with as I'd like; and with my current positions I'm feeling spread a bit thin and uncomfortable, but I don't want to exit any one position just yet... Almost hoping SPI closes above $10 next friday and my shares get called away (sold covered calls) and then I'll be in a simpler position. I definitely need to get back to a cash dominant account in the next couple weeks to reset and be able to view a clear picture of things again.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27200657 - 02/11/21 11:35 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: UVXY. This thing loses value so fast it's gone through I don't even know how many reverse stock splits just to keep it from trading at fractions of a penny. It's only good for short-term hedging and capitalizing off of market panic. It's a very difficult trade to make, but it can make you feel good about things when the rest of the market is on fire. Generally a better idea to just move to cash though.
I think I'll wait and risk the bag. - and sell half before hand so there's not as much at stake.
I'll admit I went off on a hoard of penny energy stocks today. - Hydrogen and solar- future space.
I do have a question for you experts though. What happens if I own however many stocks in a company at whatever price and it gets bought out at a higher price?
Do I have any say so in my share price? Can it just drop to oblivion?
This is the affliction of pink sheet stocks right? The one's where you own like 25k for $100?>
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The OCB
Stranger

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
#27201015 - 02/12/21 07:53 AM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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As other people have mentioned this is no good for holding for weeks at a time or whatever. The rate of decay eats into your earnings decently, you might get in at 13, have it drop to 10 then exit by the skin of your pants at 13.6 The thing is when the shit is hitting the fan and UVXY is spiking my trading platform gets sketchy (TD Ameritrade). I have found it very important to have those sell orders already lined up through where you believe it will trace.
Who fucking knows. I'll probably lose $200 bucks but as GEO said, I'll feel pretty good about it lol.
Anybody here ever driven a Fisker?
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