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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27193547 - 02/08/21 11:23 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Thanks for sharing that


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InvisibleBayerPhi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27193631 - 02/08/21 12:12 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Pull. The. Rug.
Good post Geo.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
    #27193657 - 02/08/21 12:32 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Thanks for the share Geo, that was a nice read


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineThe OCB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27194030 - 02/08/21 04:59 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Yeah that guy knows what hes talking about.  Fire posts.


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: The OCB]
    #27194352 - 02/08/21 08:33 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

You set the stop loss for the previous days low?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27194860 - 02/09/21 06:47 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

If you are momentum trading off of a breakout (i.e. a volatility squeeze/expansion), the prior day's low is generally a good place to set your initial stop, although a fast moving day trade on my screen will end up using intraday levels for my stops, because I'm typically using leverage on a fairly large position, which I simply cannot allow to go against me or I'll be wrecked.  If you are taking more of a swing trade position, the speed with which you build up your position will probably be slower, and your expected holding period will probably span several trading sessions, and therefore your placement of stops will probably be a bit looser (i.e. prior day's low rather than intraday lows).  For long term positions with expected holding periods of months to years, you would likely use an even looser stop, or a series of partial position stops, the first one fairly tight, but the bulk of them considerably looser, so you're not likely to be taken out of the entire position, since your plan is to maintain exposure over a longer period of time.

I would recommend you re-read the following reply that I made to you about a month ago:
Quote:

geokills said:
You can develop any number of simple or complex trading strategies, most importantly, you need to develop one that suits your style, personal risk tolerance, emotional construct and available time.  There are all sorts of "measured move" price targets for various chart patterns that you can employ to get a general idea of where a stock might be heading.  But in my view, it's best to focus more on your entry (i.e. how much you can lose) rather than how much you might be able to gain.  It's also better to control your risk by using stops to take you out of your trade without you having to make the absolute determination that "this is the place to sell".  That said, if you are up huge on a trade, you should take partial profits to protect yourself from the risk of giving it all back.

Also remember that your first loss is your best loss.  If you've been patient and disciplined in order to get a good entry, you should be able to place a stop nearby to avoid a big loss.  If you really want to buy a stock but you can't find a good entry, you absolutely must adjust your position size in accordance with where a reliable stop can be placed, by determining how much money that stop loss would cause you to lose if it were to be hit.  Obviously, if you buy a stock right at solid support and can reasonably place a stop < 1% below the trade price, you can go in gangbusters.  But if reliable support is 5% or 10% or 15% below where you enter, you better have a much smaller position or else risk having your ass handed to you.

Be a risk manager.  Focus on what you can lose, not what you can gain.  By doing this, you will cut losses quickly and the winners will take care of themselves.  It is not uncommon for me in my day trading account to suffer several small losses, but because the risk is managed, the one big winner I catch that I can let run, more than makes up for the string of losers.  As an analogy, think about the fact that even the best baseball hitters in the world have less than a 50% batting average.  You don't need your trades to all be winners and you can't reasonably expect them to be, especially if you're day trading.  You just need to focus on your entry, manage risk and maintain your discipline.

I know the STOCKS thread is stupid long, but I've outlined a lot of trades in detail, including how I setup my charts and what indicators I use.  In fact, here's a recent one I posted just about a month ago:

Quote:

I am [...] riding a nice day trade on SQ, as it held its opening print even as the market was under pressure (my first buy), and then moved above it's "opening rotation high" aka the first 15 min candle (and where I added to the position), on a successful test of the VWAP aka volume weighted average price during the third 15 min candle, I added a third tranche.  Now the stock is off to all time highs and my position has a stop at breakeven, just below the VWAP, which should hold any subsequent tests today, and if it doesn't, you don't want to be long on a trading position.  You could however hang onto a small piece of this longer term, because it is at all time highs.  Just keep a stop below the daily 8 period EMA and/or the prior day's intraday low.

Here's a visualization of the various metrics I mentioned in my above analysis, and how they applied to my trade today in SQ:


         




While there are key indicators and moving averages across multiple timeframes that you should get comfortable with (because a lot of other traders are, which thereby makes them relevant by virtue of everyone else watching them), ultimately you need to develop your own style for what works.  Short term day trading is not easy.  But it can be rewarding.  Whatever you do, put in the time to learn.  Plan your trades and trade your plan.  Best of luck.




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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27194909 - 02/09/21 07:19 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Thank you Geo


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27194966 - 02/09/21 07:53 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

TLRY, up another 25% on the underlying this morning on news of cannabis distribution agreement to the UK.  These guys are doing business.  My initial tranche of options (June $15's) is up better than 400%, and I am peeling off almost all of my exposure on this move.  I think we can go higher, but this move ramps us into the 3rd standard deviation bollinger band on the daily chart, and will probably cool down a bit later this week.

CGC's report came out, and the market is buying.  I rebuilt my position at the open, although I still have plenty of room to add, just in case we see a reversal.

PENN, looks like yesterday may have been all the pullback we get for now.  Picked some up then, have doubled down this morning.  Not quite a full position, out of respect for the stock being somewhat extended above its 20 day, relative to where it has trended over prior months.

NVDA, no follow through yet.  I did end up getting a piece yesterday, but in no hurry to build up the position.  Earnings on the 24th.

MARA, to the flippin' moon.  In retrospect, I shouldn't have sold and covered up my common yesterday.  But I still have March $20 calls from below, so I can't complain.  Very likely all my common will be called away this week.

ZM, holding the breakout, I am buying more, but keeping it on a tight leash.  Below $408.50 and I'm out of the bulk of the position.  I will hold a placeholder though, as this one's longer term pattern is looking good with a touch and go off its 200 day, and last Friday's breakout above its 50 day.  This one could revisit $500 pretty quickly if it gets moving.

NNDM, just floundering around.  I'm not hugely exposed on this one, but will hold on as long as the stock holds its 8 day EMA.


Other stocks I would like to own, but don't at the moment: ILMN, AXON.  Keeping an eye on TSLA and NIO, which are both squeezing very tightly.


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InvisibleTheStallionMang
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195001 - 02/09/21 08:21 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Good morning everyone. I'm fairly inexperienced in the stock market and only started investing part time about a year ago.  There's a lot of good info here and I appreciate what you guys are doing even though some of it doesn't make a lot of sense just yet.

I sold some MRNA a little over a week ago at 173.21 after some decent gains and watched it climb steadily to about $181 as of right now.  Can I get an opinion on what it might do and at what point it would be a good idea to pick it up again?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheStallionMang]
    #27195010 - 02/09/21 08:26 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

MRNA is in a strong trend.  Obviously has positive newsflow with the corona virus variants likely resulting in the need for ongoing vaccine reformulation/boosters for years to come.  It's a well known trade, but a trade that probably keeps working.  So long as it keeps closing above its 8 day EMA, it's worth it to stay long.  Once that breaks, you can expect a deeper pullback to the 20 or 50 day moving averages.


NIO - Buying some here.  Good volume, in a squeeze near its 50 day, all time highs not far overhead.  A breakout here could carry this one quickly.  Not predicting, just anticipating.  Below $55 and you don't want to be in this.


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InvisibleTheStallionMang
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195021 - 02/09/21 08:29 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Also, I've got some Pfizer stocks I picked up in Nov and Dec for $38.33 and $42 which have just been floundering ($34.88 now) and either holding or dropping slightly most days.  I feel like the taking the small loss to use it better for something else might be worth it. Any suggestions about doing that?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheStallionMang]
    #27195052 - 02/09/21 08:47 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

The initial catalysts for the vaccine plays are already well known.  I don't think there's anything wrong holding these for longer term "set it and forget it" type positions... but that's not really my style.  Whether or not you want to keep holding Pfizer and Moderna is going to depend on what kind of trader you want to and are comfortable being.  Frankly, I would only choose one, and I would choose Moderna.  They have the room to grow.  Pfizer is already a behemoth and it's chart pattern is downright ugly.


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InvisibleTheStallionMang
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195072 - 02/09/21 09:00 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Thank you for your input.  I agree MRNA is the better choice of the two.

I'm looking to be an active trader making many small moves in an attempt to make more money than just holding and leaving it alone.  I am self employed so I have some time to pay attention to things and make trades when needed.

I've felt reluctant to buy more MRNA since I'd have to buy it for more than I sold it for and I've gotten burned doing that on other stocks before when I thought it would keep going up

What should I look for to indicate an opportunity to buy?


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195082 - 02/09/21 09:07 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Keeping CLF on my radar right now.

Would i be looking for it to either bounce or break at its 50 day ema and/or a push above its 8 and 20 day ema ?

To me mrna looks like it might dip soon. 4 hours looks like a double top and it looks a bit extended. If i was looking for entry i would look for a pullback here or for a continuation. Outflow is larger than inflow right now with 2 big sales recently. But take what i say with a grain of salt.

*but idk. Its still above its moving average. Maybe it keeps pushing :shrug:


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Edited by Enkidu (02/09/21 09:13 AM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheStallionMang]
    #27195170 - 02/09/21 09:54 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

TheStallionMang said:
What should I look for to indicate an opportunity to buy?



This question is a bit too complex for a "one size fits all" answer.  In the most general sense, a stock chart with price moving from the lower left corner, to the upper right corner, indicates a probable opportunity.

Taking that a step further, positively stacked key moving averages.  That is: the 20 day above the 50 day above the 200 day.

For actionable buying levels, you need to figure out how whatever stock you are looking at, reacts to these moving averages (I would also include the 8 day exponential moving average for fast movers, and even the 8 period EMA on 15min and hourly charts for really fast day trades).  Find out which moving averages are relevant for the stock you want to buy, and buy when the stock both retraces and shows signs of buying (i.e. bouncing) at those key levels.  Don't forget to set your initial stop just underneath the bounce.

Stronger support levels that you can catch a bounce on, necessarily allow you to have a bigger position size.  If you are buying on weaker support levels (with stronger support further below), you need to size your position smaller, as your primary stop should be at the strong support level, to avoid getting prematurely taken out of your trade.  Then if the stock continues to fall to the strong support level and bounce, you can add to your position to build it up at that point, and make sure you set that hard stop accordingly.

Discipline trumps conviction.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #27195186 - 02/09/21 10:01 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
Keeping CLF on my radar right now.

Would i be looking for it to either bounce or break at its 50 day ema and/or a push above its 8 and 20 day ema



CLF looks ok from a birds eye view, moving averages stacked positively, price from lower left to upper right.  But when you start to look under the hood, you note that it broke it's 8 day EMA today on absolutely tremendous volume (highest daily volume in months), after having just regained it last week.  Since there is a cluster of daily lows that more or less match up with the current position of the stock's 50 day moving average, that is the absolute line in the sand.  Frankly, I wouldn't want to hold it off of today's high volume sell off and 8 day EMA rejection in the first place.  But if for whatever reason I could look past that, $14.66 (the 1/27 low) is the hard stop.  Holding below that level is criminal, from a trading perspective.  That 1/27 low is also just under the 50 day moving average, which is nice, because you never want to set your stops right AT a key moving average, you do need to give it a little wiggle room.  Nevertheless, I wouldn't touch CLF until it moves back above its 8 day EMA.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195195 - 02/09/21 10:05 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

PS. Been adding to CGC and NIO all morning long.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195239 - 02/09/21 10:38 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

After some fantastic gains was stopped out of TLRY and MARA, have set some buy orders for closer to the open for them. Am continuing to add to AAPL after seeing (what I think is) continued consolidation at the mid 130s. Will continue to add if it drops further, partially in hope that news comes out about their adoption of cryptocurrency. Well see, bit of a gamble but its AAPL afterall.

Missed out on BA, was hoping for a gradual descent into the 206 range that I had earlier seen the stock hover around. Staying away for the time being as i anticipate that it works its way back down.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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InvisibleTheStallionMang
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27195265 - 02/09/21 10:59 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Thank you. That's helpful


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27195365 - 02/09/21 11:47 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

AAPL is sleeping for now.  I don't think news of them adopting crypto in whatever capacity is enough to move the needle on that stock, to be honest.  I also think AAPL's management is generally conservative, and unlikely to make a big bet on bitcoin, even as I could see them getting involved in some capacity.


CGC & NIO, paying off in a big way now.  NNDM & ZM are finally getting out of bed a little later on the day.


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