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automan
blasted chipmunk


Registered: 09/18/03
Posts: 8,272
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Re: 228-to-205 [Re: geokills]
#9004098 - 09/29/08 06:14 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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i dont think people understand the concept of 700 billion dollars. it is $700,000,000,000. that is SEVEN HUNDRED THOUSAND MILLION DOLLARS.
instead of putting that out there, why dont they blanketly change every ARM to a fixed mortgage at 7%. and yes, i am talking about every single one in the nation. if people still cant afford their houses, they dont deserve to have them. it takes 2 to sign a mortgage. then they can offer money for partial ownership of company assets with a real exit strategy in terms of how they can hold them and how they will offload them.
i am totally against just giving massive amounts of wealth to the treasury secretary to do with as he sees fit. i want a detailed document that works like a business plan for a company with a fixed timetable to dissolution.
-------------------- No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr
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GnosticWarrior
Hermit


Registered: 03/11/07
Posts: 241
Loc: Oahu, Hawaii
Last seen: 14 years, 8 months
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Re: 228-to-205 [Re: geokills]
#9004438 - 09/29/08 07:10 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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I don't like betting against Warren Buffett but any type of bailout is against what capitalism represents to me. Maybe I'm being to idealisic?
But yes it probably could be that the govt. would make money in the end by buying those assets. The JP. Morgans and BofAs are only doing what private capitalists do. Govt. has to distinguish where their role ends. But if owning the assets that private companies either don't want or cannot own, will be in the best interest of the taxpayer? Then govt. and the people who took positions to serve the public have not created the type of track record to warrant the trust needed to past a bill of this magnitude. Especially with little explanation of consequences. If any let whatever crisis that happens, make us start to trust one another but it needs to be earned by all parties. You get what you put in right?
But, if the ultimate goal is to get more money anywhere in the system? Maybe now would be a good time to sell taxpayers on the idea of saving social security by allowing the social security trust fund to hold marketable securities of publicly traded companies. And then the govt. could then add 700 Bil. to the stf and invest that money on behalf of SS beneficiaries. However, they should hire managers to invest that money like how private pension plans do. Maybe now the public would be for it?
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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kids, get ready for a wild ride!
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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman



Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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I bought into SOV yesterday and closed about an hour ago.
You might notice it in the highlights on financial news today 
It makes up for a couple sketchy moves I made last week, including one financial that I held on to for unknown reasons, that dropped 50%. (I closed it today when I noticed it was up 10% today. I wanted to hold on to it until the bailout, hoping I might recoup most of those losses, but I was getting impatient).
-------------------- Discuss Politics
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 9 seconds
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Stock Update for September 30, 2008 - SDS, GLD [Re: geokills]
#9010585 - 09/30/08 08:57 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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Just a quick note that I reduced my Short exposure after Monday's huge drop by selling half of my UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) position for an 8% gain. In turn and in keeping with my defensive posture, I picked up 35 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which is a fund that holds physical gold and mimics the moves in said precious metal. Gold has been under pressure thanks to a strong dollar, but given all this crazyness, it is not a bad idea to have a position in gold right now. To note, I also have some physical gold in a safe deposit box (purchased when gold was at $650), which is why I am only now adding it to my portfolio. Because frankly, it's almost never a bad idea to have at least a small position in gold.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 9 seconds
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Stock Update for October 1, 2008 - SDS, CELG [Re: geokills]
#9015465 - 10/01/08 08:15 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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Just another quick note that I pulled my UltraShort (SDS) position out of the portfolio at $70.50 this afternoon, booking a better than 5% gain. Not sure if this was necessary, but I figure that the senate would probably pass the updated rescue bill which may give a little bump to the market (though the stock futures this evening actually point to increased downside after the vote, go figure!). I may or may not put some of this UltraShort position back on, depending on the action tomorrow.
I also swept in on Celgene (CELG) at its lows of the day, pickin' up 30 shares at $62. I have been looking to increase my healthcare exposure ever since I dropped Schering-Plough (SGP), and now I am more comfortable with the overall balance to my portfolio.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 10/1/2008:- 39.5% Cash
- 11.4% Altria (MO)
- 8.4% Walmart (WMT)
- 8.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.6% CPFL Energia (CPL)
- Margin SHORT Caterpillar (CAT) equiv ~ 6.2%
- 6.1% Celgene (CELG)
- 4.8% SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
- 4.3% Goldman Sachs (GS)
- 4.0% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
- 3.8% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
- 3.4% Deere (DE)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
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Personal Rant [Re: geokills]
#9017591 - 10/02/08 09:53 AM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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It is truly amazing the speed and ferocity of the declines in high quality company's stocks. Take John Deere (DE), Freeport McMoran (FCX), and National Oilwell Varco (NOV). These are all strong companies with lots of cash and relatively stable businesses. The world is facing increased famine, and John Deere makes the best farm equipment out there. If there will be any hope of any industrial development anywhere in the world, Freeport stands to benefit with its vast reserves of hard-to-find copper (not to mention its smaller gold operations). With oil still well above where it was a few years ago, National Oilwell Varco is one of the only companies that can help exploration and production companies drill for new reserves. For the long term, I believe these three companies have to present great value, they just have too, IF you believe that the world economy will eventually recover! Their stocks have been sliced in half in the last three months give or take - all three of them are down over 50% from their highs!
I am so tempted to add to these positions... if it weren't for this crazy market. With hedge funds liquidating, there's just no telling when these stocks will stop going down. I want to buy on the way down, but I honestly have no idea how hard the market will continue to fall and preservation of capital must remain a priority in this environment. Fortunately, by now my holdings in the aforementioned three stocks have become my three smallest... but that offers little consolation when they continue to fall upwards of 10% on the day! These names I am not giving up on. I will play conservatively - My total exposure to these three companies is right around $6,000, which is right around 10% of my portfolio's value - and I will wait to make any purchases because all bets are off in this market.
On a more upbeat note, thank heavens for having raised cash a few weeks ago, bringing my cash position toward 40% of the portfolio; as well as having implemented a couple of short strategies this past week. My UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) position paid off an average of 7% in just a few days time. In hindsight, I should have kept it on because it looks like fears of a global recession continue to build, as the European Central Bank is more forthcoming with their concerns and the Baltic Freight Index continues to get destroyed (which happens to be a decent measure of economic demand coming out of China). Should we see a bounce on Friday if the House passes the revised economic rescue bill, I will likely re-initiate the UltraShort position. I have stuck with my short position in Caterpillar (CAT), which is paying off handsomely but still cannot offset the intense destruction of capital that has hit the rest of my portfolio. My short position on CAT, initiated earlier this week, is already up 11%.
The silver lining here, the only saving grace that has afforded me some measure of peace of mind, is that my five largest positions have not been doing too bad. Altria (MO) is still slightly below my cost basis, but above where I made two purchases over the last two weeks at $20.25 and $19.75 - not to mention its better than 6% dividend. Walmart (WMT) is still above my cost basis, if only by a paltry 2% - it should stand to benefit as the consumer trades down to discount stores as they tighten their spending. Proctor & Gamble (PG) is up over 12%, and is the only long stock in my portfolio that is actually up on the day - they will benefit from lower oil prices as that is one of their largest raw costs, and they make all the supermarket stuff that people should buy regardless of economic slowdown. CPFL Energia (CPL), this Brazilian energy utility is 20% below my basis - but its paying a 9% dividend while I wait and I believe should remain a core holding. And lastly Celgene (CELG), a biotech/health play which I increased yesterday, is relatively flat and should be relatively immune to economic sensitivity as it makes a market in successful cancer treatment drugs.
But I'll tell you, it would be SO easy to let myself panic in situations like these. Situations like these that have seen my portfolio's value drop nearly 27% since the year began. Situations like these where all you hear about in the news is how terrible things are going to be. But then you take a look at history, and you realize that we've made it through crisis before. There are many indicators, from the ISE put/call ratio, to the VIX (volatility or "fear" index hitting its 5th all time high), to the bull/bear ratio to the overbought/oversold oscillator... I won't attempt to explain them here and now, but they do provide some measure of reason in this unreasonable market. They cannot tell the future, but they can help give us a clearer picture of where we are in the cycle. All things cyclical, ups and downs and all arounds. If history has been any guide, it is often when fear is at its height and things appear the worst, that those with a stable discipline (and some cash) can create fortunes in the midst of all the panic.
I hope we get a bill passed on Friday, though I sincerely doubt that alone will be the end of our problems. We've gone too far for the time being, and we'll probably overshoot things again in the opposite direction, creating more regulation and further mangling our "free market" (which hasn't really been free for a very long time). Might these corrective actions now lead to even greater problems in the more distant future? I'd say there's a good chance. But we work with what we have, and as humans we will always find a way to screw up a system, be it communist, socialist or capitalist!
/end rant
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
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Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: geokills]
#9049414 - 10/08/08 06:17 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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As you can tell, I've been sitting tight amidst all the absolute insanity the stock market has been experiencing of late. I've built up a hefty 40% cash position, and what I still have on the table I am comfortable with. However, on any significant strength I will continue to build cash, as I do not believe the market has reached a bottom yet. Therefore, if we do see an oversold rally in the coming days or weeks (because goddamn are we oversold!), I will use that as an opportunity to do some tax loss selling... lord knows I'll need to, given that my realized gain for the year is still 10% positive (though to be sure, my unrealized positions make any gloating completely fallacious)! If we do see a rally and I do get to unload some shares, I plan to repurchase them lower as the market continues to churn about between 8000 - 10,000.
On a quasi-positive note, I had been trailing the market for the better part of this year, but thanks to my recent moves into the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) and my sucessful short on Caterpillar (CAT), not to mention liquidating a good lot of stock to build cash prior to the present month, I am now even with the market year to date -- though that's not saying much, with the S&P down some 32%!
- Caterpillar (CAT) - Bought 65 shares to COVER @ $47.80
My most successful short-term trade since Schering Plough (SGP). This was a short position that I initiated at $60 on September 29th. Scarcely more than one week later, and shares of this global industrial manufacturer had fallen as low as $46. My target when I initiated the position was around $45, and while covering at $47.80 is a little shy of that mark, I am comfortable given the quickness I was able to make this 20% gain. I decided to cover today, given the fact that government has taken extraordinary measures over the past week to help work through the current financial crisis, including the coordinated worldwide rate cuts that were implemented today. While I don't think Caterpillar is in much better shape for the immediate term, the US markets are down six days in a row and it is likely that we will see some sort of relief rally here soon. That is not to say we are at the bottom, as I believe any relief rally will be short lived and then we will resume our primary downtrend. Nevertheless, I am trying to make myself more flexible... I've tended to get attached to my positions in the past and I need to break that habit. Therefore, you will hopefully see me making trades with a shorter time horizon. Given the intense volatility of the market, this seems like an opportune time to hone such a strategy, so with any luck, I will be shorting these CAT shares again within a few weeks.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 10/8/2008:- 40.6% Cash
- 11.3% Altria (MO)
- 8.7% Walmart (WMT)
- 8.5% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.3% Celgene (CELG)
- 5.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
- 5.2% CPFL Energia (CPL)
- 4.1% Goldman Sachs (GS)
- 3.5% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
- 3.3% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
- 3.0% Deere (DE)
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: geokills]
#9049517 - 10/08/08 06:37 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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PWE, ERF, PVX and HTE pay huge dividends at the level their at. What do you think about them? Look at BGF, too, its an enhanced income security, ie. stock and bond, which can be separated at some later date. BGF has a 20.07% yield at the close on October 8, 2008. http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_B/forumview?bn=26324&tid=1834&mid=1843
You can look up BGF here http://www.quantumonline.com/
What do you think about PCU?
Edited by Luddite (10/08/08 06:41 PM)
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GnosticWarrior
Hermit


Registered: 03/11/07
Posts: 241
Loc: Oahu, Hawaii
Last seen: 14 years, 8 months
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: Luddite]
#9049687 - 10/08/08 07:08 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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I own a fair amount of PWE. I was tempted to buy more today but, couldn't get myself to do it since if something does go wrong I'll just be putting more money on a sinking ship. Also while the distribution is good now, but if they ever cut it...i've been sucked in by high yields before.
However, if this would be my first stake in it, id buy some now. I've owned mine for about 2 years. Paid around $31 for em. Another concern is that Bruce Berkowitz of the Fairholme fund was winding down his position before the market began tanking. But, I'm bullish on oil and nat. gas at these prices. Could be more pain but, I think in the long term we'll see higher prices.
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=PWE
On a side note, I was waiting for CHK to come down to buy a stake in and a few days ago I got my chance at 24.50. If I waited a little longer I could have got it cheaper but that's how it goes.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 9 seconds
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: Luddite]
#9053085 - 10/09/08 11:15 AM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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BGF is very interesting. I used to hold BGS, the common for B&G Foods, as I believe they hold a solid portfolio of brand name shelf-stable food products (Ortega, Cream of Weat/Rice, Las Palmas, All Fruit, Maple Grove Farms of Vermont, etc.). If you believe the company will stay solvent, then indeed their enhanced security/bond seems like a screaming buy at these levels. I don't feel comfortable pulling the trigger myself on many of these 15%+ yield plays right now, because I worry if the companies will be able to continue paying such high dividends as they may see their cash flow dwindling.
I'm not sure about PCU, it seems like a good deal for a long term holding, but I'm already involved with Freeport McMoran (FCX) at this time.
I'd rather play a bit more conservatively and pick up sone Kinder Morgan (KMP), a natural gas utility that operates many transport pipelines and which announced yesterday that it intends to increase its dividend to yield around 9% at the current share price. Their move to increase the dividend shows confidence, which is something that so many stocks are lacking right now. I would rather pick up the KMP, which is why I sold a piece of my CPFL Energia (CPL) today at $42.30 on the relative strength from yesterday's close. I intend to put these proceeds to work in Kinder Morgan (KMP) at or below $44.50, especially if it can find its way back to its low of $35 (for which I have a Good-Until-Cancelled limit order for 100 shares at $36).
It's just really difficult to make confident moves in this market, as erratic as it is. I am inclined to keep holding onto a huge cash position until we see a definite turn in the trend lines. For now, we are obviously in an exceptionally strong downdraft and I don't want to fight the herd on this one - except in names that I am nearly certain will be around for the next decade, names that hold a lot of cash. While I do feel that there are some serious trading opportunities out there, how deeply do you want to throw yourself into this churning pit of uncertainty? I think I'm a bit biased towards waiting for sunnier days before committing much more of my capital.
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: geokills]
#9054074 - 10/09/08 02:37 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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so how many people have gotten crushed from all the recommendations to invest in those index funds?
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: Liquidkick]
#9054683 - 10/09/08 04:59 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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People are so much happier when they have friends.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 9 seconds
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Stock Update for October 9th, 2008 - FCX, NOV, KMP [Re: geokills]
#9055661 - 10/09/08 08:05 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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Holy shit, we just can't catch a break here. I'd like to take a moment to highlight one of my biggest strategic errors, that I have now made twice, even after having openly recognized it in this thread just a couple of weeks ago!
I am way too timid on the short side. I've been expecting the market to fall this much, and yet, for whatever reason, I keep taking small gains in my short positions instead of riding them out over a longer time period. I am talking specifically about the UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS), the one I'd dabbled in many moons ago, and then reinitiated recently on September 26th at $67.99. I held onto it for about a week, then cashed out in two sales to net an 8% gain give or take. Why was I so eager to ditch it? Well I suppose I might have felt that all the congressional actions would lead to a short-term rally - but of course that didn't happen.
My failure here was in not realizing I was still net long, even as I had my short position on. This is because over half of my portfolio is still comprised of long stock, so I would have to put on a 25% ultrashort to maintain a fully hedged flat position (since the ultrashort returns two times the inverse of the S&P500 index). Obviously I failed here, bigtime, because today the SDS closed at $110! That's a whopping 64% above where I purchased it just a few weeks ago! And of course a whopping 56% above where I liquidated the position last week.
All the while, I'm still not expecting the market to find its bottom for some time, and yet here I am, no short positions whatsoever, and getting crushed on the long side - thank heavens for the fact that I've built up a large cash position. But here's where it gets really dicey... I couldn't help but put some more of my cash to work in my long positions today, because I just can't get over the fact that market has fallen so quickly. My gut tells me we are in for a near-term bounce, but my gut has been wrong before. For all I know, we could be setting up for a real crash, perhaps 25% down in a single day. I don't know why I have been making this mistake so often, but I really wanted to opine on this for a moment, in hopes that I will be teaching myself a lesson here. If I don't think the market is healthy and is in a downward bias, I must maintain some sort of hedge by way of a short position. To not do this is plain reckless, and that's what I've been this past week... reckless.
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) - Bought 25 shares @ $39.49
This stock is now offering a better than 5% dividend yield, and is tremendously off of its highs of $127. I lightened up on the position but have rode it all the way down to where it currently sites. Unless we have a lasting global depression, this, the world's largest copper producer, will live to see another day. I may flip these shares for a quick profit on any near-term strength, because I don't think we'll have a stable market for some time... but I couldn't pass up FCX below $40.
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - Bought 50 shares @ $30
My favorite drilling company. Yes, I realize oil has come down; but as with FCX, I believe NOV is here to stay. I also believe that both companies have been victim to unmitigated hedge fund selling on account of hedge fund investors wanting their money back (i.e. redemptions), which perpetuates the downside as the hedge fund must liquidate their large backs in order to raise cash to pay back their investors. NOV was murdered today, down almost 16% and right near its 52-week low. As with FCX, I can see myself flipping these shares on any near-term strength.
- Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) - Initiated position of 45 shares @ $44.45
This is a natural gas utility that provides major pipeline services (25,000 miles) and energy storage. The main reason I am entering this position is due to the fact that they announced yesterday their intent to increase their quarterly distribution to $1.02, making for a nearly 10% annual yield! Now obviously, there are a lot of stocks out there that have ridiculous yields because their share price has fallen so much - but in reality, most of those stocks will probably cut their dividend since their cash flow will be stifled due to the rapidly deteriorating economy. But when a company comes out and willfully raises their dividend, that is a sign of confidence by management and I am going to take it. In order to fund this purchase, I have reduced my exposure to CPFL Energia (CPL), of which I sold 22 shares this morning at $42.34.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 10/9/2008:- 39.2% Cash
- 10.5% Altria (MO)
- 8.0% Walmart (WMT)
- 7.7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 5.9% Celgene (CELG)
- 5.5% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
- 5.2% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
- 4.7% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
- 3.6% Goldman Sachs (GS)
- 3.4% CPFL Energia (CPL)
- 3.6% Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP)
- 3.2% Deere (DE)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: AroundtheSon]
#9055878 - 10/09/08 08:47 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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well maybe if people didn't attack me about day trading, I'd be nicer and help, but as it stands now, for all the people who were against me... its time for you to lose money.
Its all index funds, gold, blah..... in this forum...
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Stock Update for October 8th, 2008 - CAT [Re: Liquidkick]
#9057356 - 10/10/08 06:09 AM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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If you offered advice without all attitude, people might respect you. As it stands right now, you act like the big guy on the hill, who pisses down in the valley.
Either offer your advice or don't, but you could probably leave your shitty attitude out of it, bro.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 9 seconds
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Dow tags 8000, S&P tags 840 - heavy volume selling at the open [Re: geokills]
#9057586 - 10/10/08 08:18 AM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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Wow, what an exciting morning. I almost couldn't get my orders in fast enough at the open. Within the first 10 minutes of trading, I have added to three of my positions and re-initiated a fourth.
They are all up from my purchase price... so far. Of course, all bets are off in this market.
These purchases have brought my cash position down to around 25%, which I am comfortable with given the insane declines we have seen over the last eight days.
This should be the near-term rally I have been mentioning off hand in my previous posts. It probably won't last long, but I can see it working its way into next week.
Only time will tell... more details to come after the close.
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Dow tags 8000, S&P tags 840 - heavy volume selling at the open [Re: AroundtheSon]
#9058316 - 10/10/08 11:24 AM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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I posted my advice and opinion and everyone went against it...
Time for all of you to lose money.
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axis_bal
Stranger


Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 196
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Re: Dow tags 8000, S&P tags 840 - heavy volume selling at the open [Re: Liquidkick]
#9058424 - 10/10/08 11:41 AM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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Do you really think an amateur with a limited amount of money can successfully day trade?
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Dow tags 8000, S&P tags 840 - heavy volume selling at the open [Re: axis_bal]
#9058712 - 10/10/08 12:34 PM (15 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yes, but it depends what is a limited amount of money...
Its all about your determination to succeed.
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