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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27144142 - 01/12/21 04:09 PM (3 years, 16 days ago)

I have a feeling MP will be big as a long term position


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27145282 - 01/13/21 07:56 AM (3 years, 15 days ago)

AVTR Taking the rest off of the table this morning.  Still have a decent profit in the remaining half position, and don't want it to vaporize.

TLRY - Just beastly, hard to buy up here, but great to own.  Selling half of my options for +60%.  Will look to reload when the opportunity presents.

SNAP - Still farting around.  Having a hard time continuing its move out of the squeeze, sold.

SOLO - Taking a breather after yesterday's monster move.  Possible entry if you missed this one, but it is pretty weak so far, gotta watch for a bounce.

DASH - Very firm after yesterday's monster move.  Pushing through $195 and over $201 it's blue sky.  I added a bit this morning.  Still a small position out of respect for the incredible move it's had over the past week, but the action is pretty good.

AAXN - This thing popped yesterday.  I'm trying to find an entry, but it just doesn't want to give me one.  If I can get it closer to $130, I'll take it.

NNDM - Also popping nicely after a period of volatile consolidation.  No position here either, unfortunately, and I don't want to chase.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27145495 - 01/13/21 09:50 AM (3 years, 15 days ago)

Took off the rest of the TLRY Feb $10 calls I had for +100%.  I will be "rolling them up and out" to March $12 calls on any weakness, with an initial tranche purchased on the intraday move down to VWAP near $15.  Also took half of my DASH calls off the table, up 60% (stop on the second half at the day's low, which will be ratcheted up each day that I keep the position.  Stop on SOLO below the day's low @ $7.87.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27145596 - 01/13/21 10:42 AM (3 years, 15 days ago)

took a position in VSTO - outdoor sporting goods & ammunitions - owners of after an upgrade to buy @$33. (currently $28).

I think the ship has sailed on tracking down companies that may benefit from the surge of ammo purchases but feel like there is still potential for upside. Will hold onto it through Jan unless it hits a stop and see what happens.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27145795 - 01/13/21 12:14 PM (3 years, 15 days ago)

VSTO appears extended and simply not at a good entry, in my view.  It is however holding its 8 day EMA, which has appeared particularly relevant on the breakout move that began on 12/22, and so I would definitely keep a stop just below $27, as a move through that level would be a violation of the breakout trend and a violation of the recent lows from Friday & Monday, which should serve as support if there are still buyers interested in this thing.  A breakdown there will likely portend a test of the 20 day moving average, which is presently down around $25.

Given the backdrop of this being an end of the world "guns and ammo" thesis, the only reason I would have to be long here is if you expect another civil disturbance such as the capital riots, on inauguration day.  If that doesn't happen, I would expect this thing to settle back into its 50 day moving average, presently around $22-$23.  Generally, I don't like trading around news headlines, they're too unpredictable.


Unless you're already loaded to the hilt, I would be deploying capital in the pot stocks.  They are exceedingly strong right here right now.  TLRY is leading the pack with a just beautiful weekly chart breakout, and ACB is also looking good (although a bit of a laggard and not yet a breakout on the weekly), and CGC is more or less "best of breed", which gives it the more consistent chart, but, in my view, more limited upside potential with respect the other two names.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27146874 - 01/13/21 11:56 PM (3 years, 15 days ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
VSTO appears extended and simply not at a good entry, in my view.  It is however holding its 8 day EMA, which has appeared particularly relevant on the breakout move that began on 12/22, and so I would definitely keep a stop just below $27, as a move through that level would be a violation of the breakout trend and a violation of the recent lows from Friday & Monday, which should serve as support if there are still buyers interested in this thing.  A breakdown there will likely portend a test of the 20 day moving average, which is presently down around $25.





Thank you Geo, I appreciate the breakdown. I will be add moving averages, and daily support levels to my list initial stock analysis :thumbup:. Stop @ 27

I am sitting with TLRY and some cash on the side right now, and will add some back to each of the 3


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27147241 - 01/14/21 07:59 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

I uncovered my ACB common position today, the cannabis sector is just smoking, flying high, with blazing speed right now.  I even added some long term (June $10 calls) on ACB.  I've also rapidly built up the March $12 calls position for TLRY.  Still not quite full size, but very close.

SOLO's out for now.  The selling started right from the opening, and I wasn't about to wait for my stop to be hit.  Sometimes you just get a feeling.  I'll keep an eye on it for a reversal, but it's not looking good.

AXXN - sure wish I had paid up a little for this one, it's been a monster.  Oh well.

DASH - Still very strong, very good volume, above it's IPO high.  I bought more this morning, with a stop just below $195, as that was more or less the IPO high, and an inflection point over the past few days.  Gives me comfort going in large (via Feb $200 calls), since I can keep my stock so close to the entry.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27147272 - 01/14/21 08:27 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Finally got access to my account in Canada... with questrade... after hours of trying to get help through support.

I haven't touched the account in a few years and am surprised to see I own netflix stock bought at $260 USD in Nov 2018. And, there's a pile of cash sitting in the account too :blush:. I've been really busy in college for the last 3 years but I feel like a bit of a moron for not trying to access this account earlier. I also got too mixed up with cryptocurrencies I guess :lol:

After exclusively using crypto markets like binance for the last couple years, trying to trade on this platform seems like it was built in 2004 or something. Slow as shit. Seems to be at least 10-15 minutes behind in the prices it shows me compared to the actual market prices.

Gonna take some adjusting to get used to this.

I imagine American platforms are faster and better but IDK. My buddy who is an accountant said the other Canadian platforms are even worse so I guess this is what ya get :shrug:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #27147342 - 01/14/21 09:07 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Dig into your account settings/disclosures or call the broker.  I believe TDAmeritrade made me sign a disclosure to obtain real time quotes on the platform, versus the 15 minute delay that, for a long time was an industry standard unless you paid up on subscription fees for the streaming data.  For the corporate account I manage via TDA, they still require a subscription fee for real time quotes, but for individual accounts they don't.  Fortunately, I was able to link my corporate account with my personal login, in order to get around the subscription fee and most of the delay issue.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27147394 - 01/14/21 09:46 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

TLRY - Holy moly.  I said it'd get to $20 sooner rather than later, but I didn't think it would be today (technical note, we're "only" at $19.40 so far).  Took half of the position off out of respect for the +25% move in the underlying and the +60% move on my freshly "rolled up" options.

Took a quarter of my DASH off here as well, with the underlying +10% and the options I own +50%.  In aggregate, my trading account is up almost 20% today, I think this might be a record daily equity return for me.  Don't want to get too cute with it.  When I'm starting to surprise myself, it's time to ring the register.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27147415 - 01/14/21 10:03 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Boom! You werent kidding Geo!

TLRY shot up like a rocket this morning, I had set market buys for all my cannabis stocks Except TLRY (limit) :smirk: a mistake due to sheer exhaustion from the day heh. At least didn't miss out since my existing position was still the largest of the three. Even VSTO did something nice today :lol:. As you are doing, am securing my gains by ratcheting up stops on everything. Was stopped out of UBER and SOLO, both for a minimal gain (better than nothing).

I had been stuck at a barrier in my account for the past few weeks, unable to chink it up despite homework and trades, but that was decisively toppled today, time to work on keeping those gains :thumbup:


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 2
    #27147417 - 01/14/21 10:07 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Congrats mick!  I do have VSTO on my screen and notice that it is very close to breaking out of its little bull flag and "stair-stepping" to new highs.  Not bad!  If it were my position, I would move my stop up on VSTO to the opening low of $28.45.

On my own positions; I really tightened up my stop on the rest of my DASH, and am now out of the position entirely.  I will be watching for opportunities to re-enter, as the "IPO Strategy" is generally legit (i.e. IPO's that move above their first day highs tend to keep printing new highs).  I would like to get DASH back on a retest of its 8 day EMA that converges with the IPO high of ~$195, which is about 12% lower than current price.

Have now exited 3/4 of the TLRY, despite having intended to hold these June options for a longer haul.  I do expect this thing to move markedly higher over the coming year (along with the entire cannabis sector - thanks to the democratic Congress/WhiteHouse), but I have a feeling that I will be able to find a better entry, and since I'm trading options, I want to book massive short-term gains when I have them.

As I've said before, when it starts to feel like you're just printing money every day, it's probably time to circle the wagons, book those profits and wait for more appropriate entries to manifest.  You should always be asking yourself, with every position you hold, everyday: "Would I buy it right here, right now?".  If the answer is no, it doesn't necessarily mean that you should sell it, but it does warrant consideration, and probably indicates that you should tighten up your stops on at least a part of your position.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27147696 - 01/14/21 12:49 PM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Still holding a few TLRY $12 calls, and have started rolling up the ones I sold earlier today into March $15's.  Small size for now, but the trend is so strong and volume is still increasing on the daily, so I don't want lose my core exposure to the sector here, I really do think cannabis is setting up to be a huge mover in general for 2021, and would look to pounce on weakness so long as the moving averages continue to stack chronologically and trend toward the upper-right of the chart.  I've also put on a little extra ACB by way of March $9 calls.  I am however, leaving lots of room to add to these positions on any bounces off of their 8 day EMA's (which TLRY hasn't even touched since it broke out, but which ACB has tagged several times over the past couple of weeks).  I am also looking to re-enter CGC here, by way of April $30 calls, but I'll be a little more patient with this one, since it doesn't move with the same velocity as TLRY & ACB.

Honorable mention to PLCE, which I've been holding for the last month or so.  It's thinly traded, but continues to grind higher.  It's worth noting that there is a huge short interest on this stock (something like 60% of the float), and it is very thinly traded.  That is a bonafide recipe for a short squeeze, which is a great thing to be a part of... if you're long :tongue2:.

Also, oil doesn't seem to want to quit.  I will be seeking longer term exposure in HAL and RIG.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27149232 - 01/15/21 07:08 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

Quick note that TLRY is trading north of $21 premarket (closed yesterday @ $18.56).  ACB is also trading markedly higher than yesterday's close.  Short term enthusiasm is reaching a fever pitch and I would look to sell a little bit into this strength, and plan to reload on a pullback.  This sector is very likely going to be a huge theme this year, but TLRY is up over 100% in the last two weeks, and will be due for a rest soon.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27149268 - 01/15/21 07:37 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

Out of nearly all my cannabis now.  Short DASH with a stop above the morning highs.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27149491 - 01/15/21 10:14 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

Yeah a lot of red this morning. Will check back in towards end of day, and if things have sunk enough will look at taking a position in cannabis again. Hit most stops, am still in

AMZN
AAPL
HAL
RIG

Keeping an eye on NIO dropping a bit lower, I would love to pick this up in the 40s, and may take a bit based on where it ends up today.


Just wondering Geo, I know you tend to trade more short term, when you say you’re long are you saying you’re committed to a stock beyond a certain amount of time, or are all stocks subject to be cut based on daily performance?

For example I hold AAPL even through poor sessions, because I believe the overall performance will make up for it, just curious if that is consistent with your long stance on stocks.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27149496 - 01/15/21 10:19 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

BA hit a stop, knew I had this. Despite its sideways trading BA has been quite profitable. It seems to have a lot of support right around 206, so I don’t think I’ll be catching much discount beyond that. Will grab some at end of the day if it gets any lower.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27149504 - 01/15/21 10:29 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

The easy answer is, "it depends."  For now, I've worked my schedule to allow for me to be up before the opening bell and dedicate the first couple of hours to trading each day.  So long as that schedule persists, I will trade opportunistically and be much quicker to exit positions when they turn, but equally quick to jump back in when they reverse the other way.  I did this with DASH quite well this week, riding the momentum up, and even making a few bucks by going short today on account of the "tweezer top" (two daily candles with long upper wicks) in conjunction with price falling out of bed right from the get go this morning and the thing having massively outperformed for over a week.  Also, because I trade primarily via options, I necessarily have to be quick to act, as these leveraged positions can move incredibly fast in both directions, and you definitely don't want to get caught holding the bag when it goes against you.

The price action is the ultimate arbiter of truth in trading, so even if I am fully committed to a theme (like the cannabis cycle that I believe will persist through the balance of the year), I am fully comfortable trading around the short-term trends as long as I know I will be available to do so.  When my kid was on a different sleep cycle and my wife's schedule was also a bit different, I wasn't able to wake up consistently for the opening bell, and that required me to take a different approach.  Namely: smaller positions, more common stock positions (or longer dated options if using leverage - which I would use less of) and generally longer term holding periods with looser stops.

Active trading is not easy to do.  It requires exceptional discipline and focus, including the ability to repeat that exercise every day you have positions on (or have held them overnight).  I don't generally recommend day trading to anyone, particularly someone who has no experience trading in any capacity to begin with.

So yeah... it depends. :tongue2::spliff:


PS.  Got a piece of HAL on the pullback today, but keep in mind earnings come out before the open next Tuesday, so you probably want to keep the position size small, as earnings are always a wildcard.  Still looking to get into RIG, but am waiting for it to come back in to its 20 day moving average, which may be a while.

PPS.  The only tradable asset I hold a true long-term core position in these days, is bitcoin.  I have held some measure of bitcoin for at least six years now, and I suspect I will be holding some measure of bitcoin for far longer than that.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27149537 - 01/15/21 10:50 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

Thank you for the explanation. Literally reading that I was like yep, this is nearly the opposite of my schedule. Wake up around 8-9pst and depending on when the little one jumps on our bed, do my best to make sense of the daily movement for 15 minutes before we get on with the day.

Still, I am trying to study and use trading discipline, mostly setting moves at night when there’s time to think about it. I think there’s a path to success there, just maybe need to temper my level of aggression based on the uncertainty of what the next day will do, and stay a bit more ‘long’ in the stocks I believe in.

Thanks again :smile:


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27149545 - 01/15/21 10:57 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

My pleasure, mick.

Incidentally, I noticed you planning to possibly make some trades into the close.  I would caution about late Friday trading.  The weekend is a longer than usual break, which means you have more headline risk, regardless of what your trade is.  For me personally, I use Fridays to review my active positions, asking myself that question I mentioned earlier this week ("Would I buy this right here, right now?"). Asking yourself that can really be an eye opener.  And particularly on a Friday, it can help you scale back on positions you have less confidence in, and then be free from worrying about over the weekend.

The volume tends to dry up during the second half of the session on Fridays, or if it's a big options expiration Friday, the action can be extra whippy for no good reason other than levered players playing their game in attempts to move price toward favorable strikes.  It is for these reasons I typically use Friday as a day to shut down positions, not open new ones.


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