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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27064894 - 11/30/20 03:42 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

For sure, you are right it is smart to exercise prudence with every trade. I have an old share of HIHI @ -99.5% gains sitting in my portfolio that I refuse to let go of, just as a reminder for what can happen when I try and get rich quick off bad stocks. Thanks for the reminder :thumbup:


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27066055 - 12/01/20 10:34 AM (3 years, 1 month ago)

FB, AMZN, AAPL, all working well today.  It's getting a bit late to add to AAPL, but it does look like it's going to break out of the range.  Expecting a fairly orderly move up to $130.  Long a shitton of Jan $120 calls.

Added AMZN today on its intraday bounce off the 20 day moving average.  The 50 day is trading right in the range we well, since this stock has been chopping around sideways for awhile.  With the Nasdaq hitting an all time high today, and online retail sales expected to be through the roof for the holidays, I think AMZN is getting started on another leg higher... expecting it to move up to $3500 in short order. Long a single Dec $3200 call, it's expensive, but it controls a lot of stock.  Stop below today's low.

ILMN up another 4% today and breaking through its 200 day moving average.  Really like the bollinger band expansion here, with all moving averages coiled tightly together.  This is pretty much the definition of a volatility squeeze breakout, which is my favorite setup.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27066396 - 12/01/20 01:39 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

For sure, all doing their thing in my portfolio, minus ACB which I am hesitant to trade away based on one poor session. Bad timing on my part, but I am fine holding and seeing what might change in the next few weeks.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27066423 - 12/01/20 01:56 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Rough day on ACB.  I'm hanging onto my covered calls, but I closed the directional long I put on yesterday on the break of this morning's "opening rotation low" (i.e. bottom of the 1st 15 minute candle when price hit $11.11).  If you're not familiar with options, but want to get familiar, this is a pretty good stock to sell covered calls against since the options premiums are quite high, assuming you are ok holding onto it for longer time frames.

FDX had a nice pop this morning on an upgrade, but just couldn't hold onto the gains and traded down all day.  That is very disappointing price action, and indicates the stock has some work/sideways grind to do before it is likely to make new highs.  I would probably be selling it into the close (if I hadn't already sold the last of mine yesterday), but for longer term holders, you could also keep a stop just below the 20 day moving average ($~278) to give it a little more room.  Seeing it trade down all day though, yeesh, that's not what you want to see.


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Edited by geokills (12/01/20 02:02 PM)


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27066427 - 12/01/20 01:58 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Thanks Geo, honestly and I am embarrassed to say it but calls are like a foreign language to me. Will have to do some homework so I know what you are talking about :lol:


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 2
    #27066435 - 12/01/20 02:02 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Added a note to my above post Re: FDX

To begin understanding options, check out:


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27073393 - 12/05/20 11:36 AM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Great call on ILMN Geo.

This was not one that I had any stake in, and now I regret not switching a position. Holy moly did this take off!


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27073469 - 12/05/20 12:19 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

ILMN has been an exceptionally well behaved employee.  I took a little bit off the table on Friday since I have been long Jan $300 calls and they're up 80%.  The stock could reasonably pull back to test its 200 day moving average at $325, in which case I would look for it to bounce and then buy some higher strike calls to tie up less capital and continue to enjoy what I expect will be a march north of $400.  Definitely keep a stop below the prior day's low on at least part of your position.

Got half of my ACB common called away via my short $9 and $10 calls that expired Friday.  I will look to sell more weekly calls whenever the stock rips.  The House did pass the marijuana decriminalization bill, but the senate is highly unlikely to take a vote before the current session is over.  Nevertheless, it does pave the wave for another concerted push toward federal legalization during the Biden administration.

Initiated XOP on Thursday when it appeared to be successfully testing its 200 day exponential moving average, and then added to the position on Friday when it moved above Thursday's high.  Long Jan $55 calls and up 45% in two days.  Hard to buy this ETF here, but I think it will continue to zig zag higher for quite a while.

Also added some small size exposure to BA and FDX.  I'm keeping both of these ads very small, as I was shaken out of my FDX position a week ago, in large part because my position size was too large and I was treating it more as a short-term trade than a longer term investment.  In retrospect, FDX is a better candidate for the buy and hold cohort, and so I'm going to trade it more conservatively, by adding to the position incrementally on weakness, and generally keeping my buys and sales a bit less hyperactive.  BA is a bit extended to be buying here, but the newsflow on the recovery of its 737MAX program in addition to vaccine related optimism for airlines/travel in general, I think could set this one up to continue climbing to $300 in the coming months.

PENN, a regional gaming outfit with loyal customer bases that isn't as sensitive as the "destination" gambling stocks with regard to COVID related restrictions, looks interesting.  It has been consolidating for months and is squeezing right above its 50 day moving average.  A move above $75 would have me adding aggressively.

Ditched all my AAPL and AMZN this week.  The whole megacap tech cohort was struggling, and the stocks are liquid enough that there's no reason to fart around with holding them when they are weak relative to the market.  Just set your alerts and revisit when they begin to wake up.

Lastly, a word on sentiment.  "Smart money" indicators are rather pessimistic at the moment, while "dumb money" indicators are extremely optimistic.  This condition can persist for a while, however historically at these extremes, it almost always portends a correction in the market.  With low interest rates, the potential for more stimulus and vaccines on the way, there is some reason to support the idea that the market can continue to melt up, but it is still important to be mindful that the S&P is over 6% above its 50 day moving average and a whopping 17.5% above its 200 day moving average.  That's pretty extended, and so the risk of being caught in a downdraft appears to be higher than the risk of missing out on outsized gains in the near term.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27073829 - 12/05/20 04:31 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Thank you for the closing statement. I am going to add overall indicators on my study todo list. In retrospect I have completely neglected overall market sentiment while just choosing stocks in what feels like a 'cant go wrong' scenario. My experience trading cypto reminds me how dangerous that mentality is. I am continuing to ratchet up stops and keeping a shorter than usual leash on everything in general. We shall see what comes of stimulus efforts, I think that's where most eyes are right now, and for the time being I feel confident that my money is in the right consumer stocks to benefit from a green light.


Also am curious about the Senate runoff situation. I remember you saying a divided House/Senate is usually good for stocks as it means less change overall. I think the date is January 5th is when we learn the outcome of runoff in Georgia. Are you anticipating that date to be of significance for markets?


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


Edited by ManianFH (12/05/20 04:36 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #27073934 - 12/05/20 05:46 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

mick said:
I think the date is January 5th is when we learn the outcome of runoff in Georgia. Are you anticipating that date to be of significance for markets?



More likely that the 6th is when the results will become apparent... and it'll only be a big deal if the democrats sweep it.  I wouldn't worry too much about it though.  Just set your stops at the appropriate levels and if you get kicked into cash, be happy that stops work and wait for the next good setup you see.

I will note that on mornings when the market (or a specific stock I am exposed to) is expected to make a big gap down upon the opening, I will usually remove my stops temporarily.  Reason being is that the pent up selling pressure at the open is quite often the low print of the day, and if you're in good stocks, it's worthwhile to see how they respond after the first 15 minutes of trading.  If they're trading below the first 15 minute low, shut 'em down.  But if they've stabilized and/or are clawing their way higher, reset your stop to the knee-jerk opening low after 15 minutes, or you can use the bounce to lighten up accordingly, depending on your overall exposure and comfort level.  Point being, on big gap days, the opening move is usually the most violent, and prices will almost immediately revert to the mean at least for a little while, and especially for high quality issues.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27078509 - 12/08/20 10:06 AM (3 years, 1 month ago)

ILMN provided for a nice entry today, bouncing clean off of its 8 day EMA - a very technically polite chart indeed.  I added back exposure from the profits I took late last week.

PENN is breaking out.  I had been accumulating this over the last week, added to the position today on the big volume move through $73 and $75.

Z also looking like it wants to break out.


All of the above three are pretty good examples of volatility squeezes.  ILMN was the first to break out, Z and PENN are just getting started.  Notice on ILMN there was a "Phase 1" breakout, followed by a "Phase 2" pullback to test the breakout.  Because Phase 1 was a pretty monster move, Phase 2 could pull back all the way to the 200 day moving average at $325 and bounce, and I would still expect a "Phase 3" continuation to new highs.  Better yet, it looks like buyers are coming in at the 8 day EMA @ $336, which shows even more aggressive buying demand, and which is why I was quick to buy back the exposure I had sold last week.  Trading around the position.

FDX, BA, XOP, AAPL - not doing too much right here right now, but comfortable letting them work as longer term, less momentum driven positions.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27078552 - 12/08/20 10:38 AM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

A related buy that I am looking at is RVVTF-- is is a small cap company that has its hand it conventional therapeutics as well as the psychedelics space--specifically psilocybin. I like their diversification aka more shots on goal. I might sink a bit of gambling money into them with the hope that one of their products receives approval. They are currently in a phase III study for Covid induced acute lung injury. While everything fails in the lung injury space, if they were to receive approval they would surely see a huge bump in value.




Picked this up last week and it's increased ~50%. Year-to-date it is up ~600%. I'm trying to figure out whether to sink more money in. Any opinions?

I like this space and have made multiple investments including Mind Med and Cybin; both of which have been doing well. I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be greater interest on the Shroomery for this space given the common thread that brings us all here...


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"What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein

"The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: pslyke]
    #27080602 - 12/09/20 02:20 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

bought more trxc today after the dip.
Took profit from pton at 119. Right move to do. Overall good day for me.
Must wait for the cryptos to catch up with my stocks in the green heavily


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: InnerWisdom]
    #27080782 - 12/09/20 04:24 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Ugly close today. A bearish engulfing pattern on the daily S&P.  Techn got taken to the woodshed.  PENN massively faked me out, breaking to a new high on big volume and then just dumping for the whole rest of the day - bummer.  I did manage to exit my Z near the highs, but today was one of the biggest swings I've seen in awhile.  Has me feeling cautious, even as the prevailing trend is still up.  Just a lot of weakness overall today, and on big volume.  That does not portend an easy end to the week... but we'll see.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27080824 - 12/09/20 04:51 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Hit my TSLA stop early and decided to take everything (not named VZ) off the table, figuring even if I miss out on a recovery to end the day Ive still ended the month in positive territory. I am glad I did as you said stuff continued to drop.

I dont know where it came from, there was some article about TSLA being downgraded to a buy at $90, but who really puts weight into that racket. All the same, in my limited experience when a skyward stock like that looks like its tanking the whole of the market likes to follow. I am not sure where to re-enter here, so might just place some low buy orders and let em sit for a while.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: pslyke] * 1
    #27084310 - 12/11/20 04:49 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

pslyke said:
Quote:

A related buy that I am looking at is RVVTF-- is is a small cap company that has its hand it conventional therapeutics as well as the psychedelics space--specifically psilocybin. I like their diversification aka more shots on goal. I might sink a bit of gambling money into them with the hope that one of their products receives approval. They are currently in a phase III study for Covid induced acute lung injury. While everything fails in the lung injury space, if they were to receive approval they would surely see a huge bump in value.




Picked this up last week and it's increased ~50%. Year-to-date it is up ~600%. I'm trying to figure out whether to sink more money in. Any opinions?

I like this space and have made multiple investments including Mind Med and Cybin; both of which have been doing well. I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be greater interest on the Shroomery for this space given the common thread that brings us all here...




Hey all!  I don't know shit about the markets but I got interested back when the Trudeau gov't got in and there were three Canadian MJ companies on the market.  I didn't have much to invest but did very well (except with ACB)
Now with the psychadelic developments I definitely sunk what I could spare into it. Mostly MMed (bought at .51 so I'm a happy girl) but also some others.
I am with you pslyke, I am really surprised there isn't more interest from all the members.  I know some don't want this legalized for various reasons but I think we all believe in the power of psychedlics and the healing it can do.

I like revive as well for the same reason.  Compass is overvalued in my opinion as they are relying on one product COMP360 which if it succeeds everyone is laughing but if not, they don't have much to go on.
I really like mydecine (licensed by health canada to supply health professionals in Can, US and Europe as well as a digital side) and red light holland group (not much in that but will be great if legalized recreational happens)

Also hoping to hell that Champignons gets their paper work sorted out.  I really feel strong about that company....and am  in the red right now with them lol


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: SunnyDayze]
    #27084780 - 12/11/20 09:45 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

The space is definitely heating up.  I am very impressed with how well MMEDF (MindMed) has done, up some 800%+ in six months.  They were in fact brought to my attention by a private equity firm that approached the Shroomery last July.  Looking back, I should have taken that as a hint to invest!  It's actually pretty remarkable as we've been online for 20+ years and only in the last six months have three private equity and one retail startup approached us with various ideas/offers.  I generally shy away from investing in such nascent industries because the stocks are not very liquid and it's often hard to get news or understand what specifically these companies are accomplishing or whether they are accomplishing their goals at all.  With regard to the psychedelic medicine space, I am concerned that it's so dependent on legislation and licensing... but I do think we are heading in that direction, this could be an inflection point, so it is a bit silly that I've been so dismissive of the space.

Thanks for sharing your perspectives SunnyDayze & pslyke.  Please keep us informed if you see any relevant developments cross the wire! :thumbup:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27084935 - 12/12/20 01:39 AM (3 years, 1 month ago)

I completely agree and though I may not have expressed it, I’m going by personal experience and my belief in what I feel is right and will help so many people.  Not great investment know-how and knowledge.  I feel there are so many main stream investors, celebrities and respected news sources making a lot of noise on psychedelics. Health Canada has already given the go ahead for psychedelic therapy use to some licensed practitioners and Europe is even ahead of us.  That said, I’m super happy to learn about other markets and sound advice from people who actually are in the know.  It’s a bit addictive when you get in to it :thumbup:

Happy to share what I know and what’s coming from my heart but take that with a grain of salt and fact check yourself lol


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: SunnyDayze]
    #27085770 - 12/12/20 01:35 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

First question already!

I trade in Canada through my bank and it’s perfect for me.

My friend in WA wants to open a trading account.  Who would you guys recommend for a beginner?  I think the bank he deals with is associated with Merril.  He isn’t looking to put in much, just get his feet wet and learn a bit.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: SunnyDayze]
    #27086244 - 12/12/20 06:30 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Trading through your bank used to have some benefits, like free trades (although with Wells Fargo at the time I checked several years ago, they only settled at the end of day and you couldn't actively trade through the platform).  These days, pretty much all the brokers are free trade for common stock.  I'm a TDAmeritrade user, they bought Think or Swim many years back, which is an awesome java based trading platform that I use to fill my 6 monitor array when I'm actively trading.  Their iOS app is pretty decent too.


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