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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#27045258 - 11/18/20 10:22 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Happy to offer my thoughts. Mind you, I make plenty of mistakes! I did end up taking a position in C and even a hedged position in SOLO yesterday (relatively small position, buying common and selling weekly $7.50 calls against it). Keep an eye on those daily lows for SOLO. Notice that since the follow through phase of the big breakout on 11/12, the daily low has always been higher than the prior day's. This is why I advocate leaving some of your position on the table, and just ratcheting up your stop to the prior day's low each morning. This allows you to stay in a trade that's working, because sometimes these things can go a lot farther than you might initially believe. When you have a winner, you want to give it some room to keep working. Of course, with a stock like SOLO, you do want to actively trim a little bit into the days of extreme strength as well.
I like that C is breaking above its 200 day moving average here. I just added TSLA today as well, as the stock is breaking out of months of sideways trading with a virtually flat 20 and 50 day moving average. Stop below today's low at $443.50, but this is a classic "volatility squeeze" pattern that tends to work very well on a break, so I would be surprised to see that stop hit, and will of course be ratcheting up my stop level as the trade continues to work.
The market overall likes the very positive vaccine news coming from Pfizer and Moderna, and with expectations of another stimulus bill being passed before the year is out, money should continue to slosh into capital markets. One must always be weary that the party always comes to an end, and often unexpectedly, but it's equally important to get your funk on while the music is playing!
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27046855 - 11/19/20 07:58 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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SOLO, oh my. New highs currently tagging $8.50. 
Looks like I will get called away on this position tomorrow with the $7.50 calls I sold @ $0.50. With a basis of $6.64 on the common, that results in a 20% gain in four days. Not bad! Would've worked out better without the hedge, but it just didn't feel safe to be so aggressive after such a big move.
I pared back my TSLA this morning as it nudges up against its upper third standard deviation bollinger band. I think the stock is going higher, but I've had a monster couple of days and don't want to push my luck. Picking up a little AAPL here near its 50 day moving average. Also added a bit to SQ as it looks poised to test its all time highs.
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CHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27046916 - 11/19/20 08:37 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Nice moves guys
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27047125 - 11/19/20 10:58 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Congrats on TSLA! You also nailed it on SOLO, the correct play was to ratchet up the stops, I would have been looking at more gains having done that. Luckily (and coincidentally) I also took a shot at TSLA again (~$440), almost thinking I missed the boat regarding the S&P news, but so far so good.
Side: My friend/coworker has a very interesting take on TSLA long, in that they are one of the few companies who have amassed a charging infrastructure, which has yet to produce the profits that it likely will in years to come. That will essentially make TSLA the 'oil company' and car producer. Beyond the other Musk ventures, that argument keeps me at least a little motivated to continue adding to my position with time.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#27047152 - 11/19/20 11:07 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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ROKU looks poised to set a new all time high today after its earnings blowoff a few weeks ago. Picked this up.
Also adding Zillow (Z) on its pull back to the 20 day after its earnings blowoff a couple weeks ago.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27048609 - 11/20/20 09:23 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Added to SQ today, also added some exposure to NVCR, which has some promising cancer treatments coming to market.
LOL @ SOLO... $13 now. I know I shouldn't begrudge a solid profit, but... Damn those covered calls!
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27048811 - 11/20/20 11:25 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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I saw that this morning and had to tell myself the same thing. Even still holy moly what a great pick that was!
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27048824 - 11/20/20 11:32 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Added to SQ today, also added some exposure to NVCR, which has some promising cancer treatments coming to market.
Will take a look at this.
I have been looking at CRSP for this reason as well - I like the technology and think it could be just getting started as a company, should CRISPR technology become prominent form of cancer/gene treatment. - There is a secondary company doing the same thing (BLUE), but they have a strange looking chart history IMO...
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27049937 - 11/21/20 06:41 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Geokills you are king of front running stocks that eventually bubble up
Are you looking into any of the psychedelic stocks at all? I picked up a bit of CMPS. The idea is hopefully there is some sort of #shroomboom in the next little while, similar to cannabis stocks back in 2017/2018.
Also I think I need to get into ROKU at some point.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#27050040 - 11/21/20 08:28 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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CRSP looks great. BLUE does not. 
Quote:
today mylove said: Geokills you are king of front running stocks that eventually bubble up
Aww.. That's a pretty solid stroke to my ego amigo ! But I couldn't claim that title. Identifying a potential candidate is quite a bit different from successfully trading it. I may have shined a light on SOLO, and while it did move more than 300% from where I mentioned it a couple of weeks ago (hitting the off hand target I noted and then some), I personally only have a 20% gain to show from the trade, and to top it off, the position was pretty small. While I'm happy to have made some scratch, the relative performance is fairly abysmal.
Quote:
Are you looking into any of the psychedelic stocks at all? I picked up a bit of CMPS. The idea is hopefully there is some sort of #shroomboom in the next little while, similar to cannabis stocks back in 2017/2018.
Haven't really taken the time to look into this, although it is an intriguing thesis. The Shroomery has had a soon to launch Canadian based therapeutic mushroom vendor as well as two venture capital firms probe us just over the summer... so there's definitely interest perking up in the space.
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27050111 - 11/21/20 09:15 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Well I suppose I could rephrase that
You’ve provided a number of actionable ideas from what Ive seen, that if acted upon successfully had the potential to generate significant value... enough that I pay attention haha. Not demphasizing the enthusiasm i orignally said it with though!
The VC thing makes sense, valuable internet real estate and a persistent (and not small?) community that appeals to a niche and lots of money looking to make money. Plus VCs taking shrooms once and feeling like the total addressable market anything shroom related is infinity
CMPS was Peter Thiel backed and to me seems the most legit out of all of them, still pipe-dreamy though. They are looking to get a psilocybin analogue patented, I think, for psychedelic therapy purposes
My humble beginnings with psychedelics make me feel like capitalization of such a beautiful thing is just wrong or something. But the potential for bubble like activity is percolating imo and kind of separate from my personal feelings about mushrooms
Edited by today mylove (11/21/20 09:33 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27053583 - 11/23/20 08:44 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: ROKU looks poised to set a new all time high today after its earnings blowoff a few weeks ago. Picked this up.
Just sold this guy at $278. I traded this with options, and added more on this morning's pullback to $270 (also home of the 8 period EMA on a 15 min chart, which is a standard "line in the sand" for day traders), just for a little babysit to see if it would pop back above its morning highs. It did, and it looks like it may even have a little more juice in it, but as I was pretty leveraged on this one and it's up three big days in a row, I decided to peel it off.
In fact, I closed pretty much all of my trading positions this morning. I had a really good week last week, and this morning was no exception. I know from experience how easy it is to get cocky and screw up your discipline when you've had a string of winners... so I'm taking a break.
SQ, ROKU, TSLA, C, NVCR, Z... these all still look pretty good. FDX is also on my radar, popping on good volume this morning after a three day pull back on successively lower volume each day. Kinda coiling up right here below its all time high with the 50 and 20 day averages more or less flattened out. Given the impending holidays and all that comes with our continued COVID related nightmare, I would expect this one to break above $300. In fact, I am going to put on a single Jan $280 call as a placeholder position so I don't lose track of it.
Also putting on a small position in CGC, a stock which absolutely destroyed me last year... but it showed some nice consolidation after earnings, allowing its 20 day moving average to catch up, and is starting to move up and out of that range. Still suspect they will be making more concerted moves into the US market, only a question of when, not if. For now, stop below today's low at $23.68.
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CHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27053614 - 11/23/20 09:08 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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How do people feel about the current health and future of the broader market as a whole with both the new Biden presidency and the various corona unknowns and other factors we face moving forward?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL] 1
#27053813 - 11/23/20 11:46 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Until this past week, I have almost entirely sat out the market since early 2020 when news of the pandemic hit. I got out well before the bottom, but overall I missed out and would've been better off riding it out. At the time, the plethora of risks were unknown and I didn't really expect the Fed to be as quickly accommodative as they were (and more importantly, failed to respond accordingly when they were). Ultimately, with nowhere else for money to go to seek a meaningful return, the market ended up a major beneficiary of easy monetary policy and a lack of alternative investment options. Interestingly, there seemed to be a concurrent retail investor effect by which people were sent home from work and decided to try their hand at trading.
So far as the aggregate market is concerned, I am more comfortable today than I have been all year. There are three primary reasons for this:- We have multiple vaccine candidates on deck for SARS-CoV-2
- US leadership remains divided, with no party carrying dominant power
- Near zero interest rate policy likely to persist
The Biden win may have some sector specific themes in play such as healthcare and renewables (although I haven't really looked into this with any depth - those are just ideas that pop into my head when I think about his general agenda). However the more important factor is that Congress is likely to remain split, which effectively prevents aggressive policy changes from taking place. Generally speaking, the market enjoys the status quo, as it is easier to build reasonable future expectations. When one party controls Congress and the White House, sweeping changes are more likley, and those types of changes create significantly more unknowns/risk. I do believe that because the elections are (almost) out of the way, we are likely to see another round of stimulus from Congress, which is another contributor to the sloshing pot of money always seeking a viable return. With the Fed unlikely to raise rates anytime soon, some of that money is going to find its way into equities.
Now for the other hand... global economies are still extremely depressed on account of all the COVID related restrictions. My home of Los Angeles announced that they are closing down all outdoor dining options for a minimum of three weeks starting Wednesday, due to sustained increases in the moving average of COVID caseloads. If the winter plays out as darkly as it appears set to, the market could catch its own cold and lose a bit of momentum. If the senate runoff in George results in a democratic sweep, I would suspect that would put the market on defense again as well. And I'm guessing that if Congress does indeed remain divided, that the next round of stimulus will likely be the final round, unless we have some other catastrophe or the vaccines prove less effective than we are expecting them to be.
Overall, things are looking more constructive. Just make sure you respect your dough. Be disciplined, don't just throw money away and make sure you use (and constantly revaluate) your stops. The S&P has been somewhat choppy, so I'm setting my alerts for a pullback to $340-$345 on the SPY and will look for things to tighten up and bounce at the 50 day moving average as a more ideal setup. Unfortunately, ideal setups are hard to come by.
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CHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27053904 - 11/23/20 01:10 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Yes I thought that we would weather this a little better but I have a feeling theres more of a bumpy ride to come as far as covid is concerned. U know this second wave is going to fuck up the Christmas money. Thats way differnt than spring. But I also like the have our cake eat it too presidents. That and the book cooking and cash injection from the feds. Globally theres sure to be quite a ripple from this thing for sure which isn't good for anything. I think we're going to see alot of money moving around in the next couple of years. Booms and busts as stuff turns over. Corona has only sped this up.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27055502 - 11/24/20 01:04 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Nice to see you made a profit over these past two weeks. Been great here as well. TSLA has been a winner the entire way. BA also making up some ground from the giant dip earlier this year. Both of these companies its really hard to say where the top is.
I am still following your principles and looking to set appropriate stops.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27055610 - 11/24/20 02:18 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
SQ, ROKU, TSLA, C, NVCR, Z... these all still look pretty good. FDX is also on my radar ... Also putting on a small position in CGC
C, TSLA, FDX & CGC killing it today. I was a sold out bull on TSLA so I missed the nice move today, but I added to FDX on the morning pullback and along with CGC & C's pop, I'm sitting pretty. SQ is still OK (I ditched mine but am watching for an opportunity to buy it back), however I would not recommend holding NVCR or Z at this point. Not sure what happened with NVCR, I fortunately ditched it yesterday and it got absolutely murdered today. Z is hitting a wall on account of rising rates that could theoretically put a damper on the housing market, in addition to the fact that it wasn't able to eclipse its earnings high. I think Z is probably still pretty good long term, but there are better options for your money right here.
Oh and if any of you like the cannabis space story, in addition to CGC I would suggest taking a look at ACB. I picked up some lottery tickets (Dec $9 calls) today. It's business is in the US, and the market is anticipating continued relaxing of cannabis laws, potentially at the federal level with a Biden administration.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#27055633 - 11/24/20 02:36 PM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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FDX is my favorite stock at the moment. I love seeing several weeks of sideways price action after a big move up, allowing the 50 day moving average to catch up with price, and creating a base from which to take another leg higher. I subsequently love seeing price begin to break to the upside, hugging the upper bollinger band on increasing volume. That is exactly the technical setup we are seeing in FDX right now.

Fundamentally, I also love that we are heading into a holiday shopping season that, thanks to COVID, will probably be even more reliant on e-commerce. AEO just announced earnings after the close today and although I am not interested in that stock, they noted that digital revenue was up 29%, which should extrapolate to continued strength in shippers like FDX and UPS.
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#27056682 - 11/25/20 07:28 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Do you mind doing a quick technical analysis on XPEL?
I feel like it has some of the bullish qualities you’re mentioning (recently broke out after consolidation) and seems to be doing the same again
I’m also following their growth story, they seemed poised to keep posting good numbers. And with their growing market cap will start getting more buyers
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove] 1
#27056803 - 11/25/20 09:26 AM (3 years, 2 months ago) |
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Re: XPEL - I haven't looked into the fundamentals, but the stock looks pretty good. It has however had a pretty huge run over the past eight months, from $8 to $39 (+387%). Both the weekly and daily charts are extended. I could not buy it here. I might put on a trading position on a move to a new high above $39, but I would prefer it to trade sideways for a while first, to allow the 20 day moving average to catch up to price and for the daily bollinger bands to tighten up a bit. Extrapolating from past price action, the move higher from the recent earnings report looks somewhat similar to the prior earnings report in August. By this I mean, ths stock moved +100% above its 200 day moving average and +80% above its 50 day moving average before drifting sideways for the rest of its quarter. Presently the stock peaked very close to +100% above its 200 day. Even though it's only +30% above its 50 day this time, it seems like the probability of nearterm sideways action is higher than the probability of a sustainable breakout, given the extensions above its key moving averages.
How would I trade it? I wouldn't right now, but if I already had a good profit cushion in an active position, I would place a partial stop @ $34.26. I might even keep a partial stop a bit tighter at the daily 8 period exponential moving average, presently at $35.91. Then set an alert at $39 to revisit the issue if it shows signs of moving to new highs. If I really believed in the story and wanted this to be a long term core position, I would also set an alert closer to the 50 day moving average, so I could then consider buying some on sale. But right here right now, there's not much else to do with this one on a technical basis.
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Separately, I got stopped out of 2/3 of my FDX position this morning. As I was fully loaded on options, I wasn't going to let this winner turn into a loser, as can happen very quickly when using the power of leverage. The stock is basing intraday, but the market overall seems like it needs a little rest and we have a shortened trading week, so I'll let the remaining 1/3 position ride, but don't expect to add to it today.
I am however riding a nice day trade on SQ, as it held its opening print even as the market was under pressure (my first buy), and then moved above it's "opening rotation high" aka the first 15 min candle (and where I added to the position), on a successful test of the VWAP aka volume weighted average price during the third 15 min candle, I added a third tranche. Now the stock is off to all time highs and my position has a stop at breakeven, just below the VWAP, which should hold any subsequent tests today, and if it doesn't, you don't want to be long on a trading position. You could however hang onto a small piece of this longer term, because it is at all time highs. Just keep a stop below the daily 8 period EMA and/or the prior day's intraday low.
Here's a visualization of the various metrics I mentioned in my above analysis, and how they applied to my trade today in SQ:
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