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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts] 1
#26554752 - 03/24/20 09:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said:
The Fed is openly embracing Modern Monetary Theory and you can't ever close that door. It might lead to actual inflation though. Throwing money at the people instead of just financial markets could solve the decade's old no-inflation problem.
Supporting factors to hedge with cryptocurrency and metals. My mother (who is 80), committed to allocating a small slice of her assets into crypto last week.
Side note, volatility has collapsed rather effectively over the past four trading sessions. Would have been nice to have bought a larger position in the aforementioned bull call spread on HAL (bought/sold Jan 2022 $5/$10's purchased for less than $1 and up 25%), but the risk was just too high to justify going in guns blazing. I will continue to let that position ride, and add to it if we see a successful retest of the lows.
Other tidbits:- Math: S&P fell 3+ standard deviations below its 40-week moving average. Has happened before, but not after falling more than 30%. Takeaway, reversion to the mean on deck.
- Risk of further downside & panic selling temporarily outweighed by short covering and investors with cash on the sidelines who will buy into the news of a congressional stimulus bill.
- Any rally is likely to a bull trap, as rarely do bottoms form a "V", almost all bottoms experience some sort of retest in the form of a lopsided "W". Watch for that "W" - the right side (preferably a higher low) would be the time to begin more confidently putting money back to work.
- Historical stats: When TARP was passed in 2008, it took 157 days and a further drop of 39% before the S&P bottomed. Over that time, there were many tradable rallies.
PS. Thanks to Dan @ StockMarketMentor for the above bullet points!
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26554968 - 03/24/20 11:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Well, I just can't in good conscience chase any of the huge moves today, so instead I'm just looking around and constructing my shopping list for if and when we see further downside. At present, I will be looking to accumulate positions in the following names:
- IIPR - REIT focused on specialized industrial properties leased to state-licensed cannabis facilities. Pays respectable dividends. Early mover to service the cannabis industry without the headline risk. 53% below its all time high, although last week was 71% below! You could probably initiate a position right here, but if you do, save some powder just in case you can bag an entry closer to $50.
- STOR - Diversified REIT leasing properties in 48 states within the service, retail and manufacturing sectors. Pays respectable dividends. These guys are rightfully getting crushed right now as many of their occupants are going to struggle from the virus related economic shutdown, but over time they should bounce back. 56% below all time high, last week 68% below. As with IIPR, not a bad place to initiate a position, but keep some buying power available for potentially better entries.
- MOS - Global supplier of phosphate and potash based crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients. Pays dividends. As long as there are humans to feed, farmers will still be farming. 61% below its highs, last week was 76% below its highs. Can likely buy this one right now, but would be nicer to accumulate between $7-8.
- HAL & SLB - Oil & energy services companies that historically pay respectable dividends. Talk about getting crushed, these companies have fallen as much as 90%+ from highs set a few years ago. Rightfully so, as the double whammy from stalled global growth conjoined with oversupply has torpedoed the price of oil, which in turn stalls new drilling activity while also shutting down existing rigs. That's a big problem for companies like HAL & SLB, but these companies have also been around long enough that I would suspect they should be able to weather the storm. Of course, a continued move toward renewable energy isn't going to help, but even so, I don't believe we're going to be able to shake our global appetite for oil through the balance of our lifetimes.
^^^ Those are what I would consider the "deals" from more of a longer term "value" oriented perspective. Note, even things that look cheap can get markedly cheaper. True support is ultimately at $0, that's the only guarantee I can give ya! The following are generally stronger companies with secular growth stories that should come out of all of this relatively unscathed. Because the market knows this, they haven't fallen as far and may not look as "cheap" as the names above, which generally speaking, is a good thing.
- MSFT - Global software and cloud computing giant. Pays dividends. Accelerated growth from cloud computing segment. Hanging around just below its 200 day moving average, 23% below its highs. Would ideally like to be buying lower, between $100-$130.
- DOCU - Digital transaction management company managing all aspects of documented business transactions. Excellent growth and has weathered the downturn in exemplary fashion (off only 7% from its all time highs today). Wouldn't want to chase this one, but if we see another leg down that takes this one below its 200 day moving average, it would probably be worth adding.
- NFLX - Global media streaming platform, likely to be insulated from virus related issues as more people are staying home and will turn to services like these for entertainment. Only 10% off of its all time high. Like DOCU, I wouldn't chase this one, but wait for another potential leg lower and be buying under its 200 day moving average.
- AMZN - Global distributor of goods and cloud computing giant. Slightly more than 10% off of its all time highs. The move toward delivery services is unlikely to stop growing. Wouldn't chase, but buying below the stock's 200 day moving average probably makes sense.
- AAPL - Consumer products (e.g. iPhone) with accelerating growth from its growing services/subscription segment. Pays small dividends, but still better than a savings account! This one is trickier because it is exposed to production issues as well as consumer demand issues, depending on how long the virus related shutdowns stay in effect. However, impending global 5G rollout and the inclusion of 5G chips in new phones could portend an upcoming supercycle, so long as the consumer isn't hurt too badly from virus related job loss. Still below its 200 day moving average and 26% off of its all time highs. For now, I would be conservative and only be buying below $200.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Baby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26555022 - 03/24/20 12:14 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Are there any large funeral home or grave excavation companies that are publicly traded?
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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Brian Jones
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26562409 - 03/28/20 01:44 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: I don't know that america is ready for a 30% unemployment rate. The Fed might have open taps and can promise as much liquidity as needed, but I don't know that they have enough for this.
It's like 10% of GDP they need to throw at this just to keep it going to July, and they might need to throw another 5%. And not this year's GDP, like last year's.
A 2 trillion dollar stimulus is a good starting point, but like the deficit is going to be 25% or more. It's going to be absolutely insane this year.
The Fed is openly embracing Modern Monetary Theory and you can't ever close that door. It might lead to actual inflation though. Throwing money at the people instead of just financial markets could solve the decade's old no-inflation problem.
I also expect a bounce to the upside soon, at least temporarily.
The unemployment rate will be understated. I know it always is but this will be more so. Other than corporate chains, most of the people who work at bars and some of the people who work at restaurants aren't even on the books, so they won't be eligible for unemployment or stimulus checks. These noncorporate joints are also more likely to go out of business permanently.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
#26564316 - 03/28/20 11:02 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Wondering how people did during the run of last week. I made the mistake of setting limit sell orders for all my stocks for only about a 15% profit, not thinking the markets would do what they did. I ended up making out ok, but holding cash while the instead of holding stocks that would have doubled the value of my portfolio. Its a strange feeling to make money and be totally sad about it heh...
Am hoping things continue to fluctuate for a while as it seems like a nice opportunity to take profits here and there. At the same time, maybe the markets will wise up and the nicest ship has already sailed - but still the best thing to do is continue to look forward and not lament over what coulve been.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26577127 - 04/04/20 11:53 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Ive bought back in about 35% to mostly TSLA and BA. Am not sure what the market wants to do right now, but the (at least first) wave of panic seems to have left and there was more stability this week, making me feel comfortable taking a bite. If things go lower I guess it will be time to slowly accumulate percentage amounts. Even taking a loss it seems better this way understanding that things will eventually normalize. Hopefully.
If things spike up again like a few weeks ago ill sell and wait for the next dip.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26586850 - 04/08/20 04:58 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Nice buy on TSLA, mick. Seems like you picked it up at around $450? You might consider putting a sell stop on at least part of your position below $530 (today and yesterday's lows). The stock is at resistance from where its initial bounce sold off on 3/26 and I would expect it to back and fill a bit here. If the stock does break below $530, I think a retest of $500 is a foregone conclusion, and quite possibly a deeper move back to test $400 over the coming months as we continue to drag through the global economic shutdown.
In fact, although the market is showing strong upside momentum short term, I think this relief rally is going to run out of steam and top out sooner rather than later, and that we'll then be stuck in a fairly large sideways trading range as we continue the process of price discovery amidst huge levels of uncertainty. On that note, I took out some bear call spreads on the SPY today.
- Sold the May SPY $280 call, Bought the May SPY $281 call as insurance
- Net Credit: $0.52
- Risk reward analysis:
If SPY is below $280 on May expiration, I keep the $52 per spread. If SPY is above $280.52 on May expiration, I begin to lose money, maximum loss of $48 per spread.
I would look to roll this position to higher strike spreads if the market continues to move up.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26588491 - 04/09/20 10:08 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Added to my SPY Bear Call Spread at higher strikes:
- Sold SPY May $285's
- Bought SPY May $286's
- Net Credit: $0.52
I also have an order hanging out there for a SPY May $290/291 call spread @ $0.52 net credit. The market has been strong under the perception of a short-term leveling of the domestic daily growth of virus cases, although I think it's far too early to be as optimistic as our leadership is portraying, with pipe dreams of getting business back to normal in May. It's almost criminal how negligent our administration is in conveying the reality of any given situation. Of course, the biggest factors leading to the current strength in the market are likely the exceptional liquidity actions provided through the Federal Reserve, the Congressional stimulus bill, and hope that a Russian/Saudi deal to cut oil production is imminent and will stabilize oil prices.
... But I have to believe that a retest of $260ish on SPY (~2640 on the S&P 500) is in the cards between now and May expiration, which should give me the opportunity to bag a good portion of the net credit on these bear call spreads.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26588579 - 04/09/20 10:53 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Thanks for the update Geo. Ive been logging in daily looking for sentiments of the more experienced traders here (no pressure heh)... Yes, I do have a stop set right around those prices with TSLA, and have been setting those for just about everything lately.
Ive still been following the thoughts of an earlier post you had made about choppy waters for a while, and a sustained period of flux due to historic charts following high VIX events - if that makes sense. That has caused me to buy a little red, sell a little green, here and there, and so far so good. I dont think these markets are like the world of crypto where you can typically expect manic swings any given week, so its been a daily focus to try and take advantage of those without completely devastating my portfolio should I get it wrong.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26600923 - 04/14/20 04:03 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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TSLA has been interesting lately. I did sell off at 670, based on previous highs around that level before a selloff, but sucker keeps going up. I am wondering what people here think of trailing stops - it seems to me that I could have avoided leaving that extra money on the table by setting that type of stop versus a market stop.
Who knows where things go from here, I will probably just look from the sidelines as earnings continue to come in. I dont expect a ton of bad news because Q1 essentially ended as shutdowns began, so who knows if the markets will even dip in the nearterm.. with absolute perfection in trading I could have triped my portfolio, but instead am up about 15% from where it began this year. Guess you gotta look at the brightside
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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ashfiken
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26601181 - 04/14/20 06:02 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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15% is positive af mang
-------------------- hmm... "I'm naked and fearless... And my fear is naked." "life isn't worth living without the threat of death" "I got my plans in a ziploc bag, let's see how unproductive we can be" "nobody lives their lives fully except for bull fighters" My Trade List
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26602392 - 04/15/20 08:58 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Well done mick! I was watching TSLA crawl into the $700's yesterday and thinking about you.. with envy. Being up 15% in this year's market is very impressive indeed. I do still think any moves higher at this point are going to be much harder fought. In hindsight, it seems appropriate to believe that we hit our "panic low" toward the end of March. You just don't expect to see 50%+ moves off of the bottom in such a short time if it's, well, not the bottom.
That said, it appears that the Fed's maneuvering in lowering rates and acting as a buyer of last resort is basically funnelling money out of bonds and into equities in search of yield. In conjunction with the Fed's tricks, the deeply oversold conditions from late March and a generally less panicky newsflow as we get used to our "new normal" for the time being, there has been a abundance of hopefulness (especially out of DC) that we can just restart the economy quickly and everything might be fine. Well, I ain't buying that last bit because we just don't know how difficult it will be to get everything up and running again, especially in light of some probable changes in consumer spending habits as a result of this huge shock to the system... in an economy where consumer spending drives the vast majority (~70%) of GDP.
So yeah, I still like my bear call spreads on the S&P500, essentially betting that we are, near term, at the top of a wide trading range while the market attempts to reprice in the face of a whole lot of persistent unknowns. I'm down on the year though, so really I just wish mick would post more so I could do what he's doing! 
Big time outperformers:
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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pslyke
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26602601 - 04/15/20 10:31 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Thanks for the well thought out post. I enjoy reading this thread and have been looking for opportunities, now and coming out the other side, to make up some of the losses I took in the last couple of months.
-------------------- "What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein "The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26604214 - 04/15/20 09:32 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Thanks for the post Geo! I dont deserve too much credit though heh, your technique is the one that succeeds over time. This whole thing is still so new and I am on board with you that there are more opportunities to come. Im currently all cash and waiting for the next wave.
Thanks again for sharing your insight, all of you!
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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automan
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26614532 - 04/20/20 07:27 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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So it has been a year and 7 months since I posted here about moving my holdings to IAU and in that time it has gone from $11.70 to $16. Today, I am finally going to make another trade, moving from IAU to OIL and UCO. Right now barrels of oil are $11.50 and that is CRAZY LOW! So low that it has pulled me to act. I suspect this will be a trade that I hold onto for the next 3 to 7 years. Like I said in previous posts, I'm not a sophisticated investor. I have no idea what half the shit Geo says even means, heh, but I tend to do well long term in the stock market.
-------------------- No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr
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automan
blasted chipmunk


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: automan]
#26614589 - 04/20/20 08:07 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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ok, into OIL @ $3.69 a share and into UCO @ $1.41 a share.
-------------------- No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: automan]
#26614908 - 04/20/20 10:23 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Cheers. I stocked up on VDE starting 1.5 weeks ago. Hoping for a nice turnout this year.
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automan
blasted chipmunk


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
#26615259 - 04/20/20 12:35 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Holy BatFuck, Robin... the price of oil just hit 5cents a barrel... the market has completely crashed.
-------------------- No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr
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Guy1980
Registered: 09/11/12
Posts: 723
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: automan]
#26615325 - 04/20/20 01:04 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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May futures at -$55...
That's minus...
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Guy1980]
#26615374 - 04/20/20 01:22 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Wow it is so funny I have been reading about Oil stocks all morning, as I am sure half the investing world might be right now. I cannot figure out what to pick up as a long term option. I remember looking at USO a long time ago but reading that it was pretty much a bullshit contango ridden ETF, and that prediction looks to have been true, even without Covid stepping in.
Just wondering why you guys chose the funds you did, versus anything else. Personally I like oil longterm and would love to throw my gains this year at it.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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