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encryptor


Registered: 05/15/03
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26505806 - 02/27/20 02:18 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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A good time to invest money in stock or hold off to see if corona virus causes greater drop in prices?
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
#26505895 - 02/27/20 05:29 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I got a bond maturing on March 3rd. I think I'm going to dump it in equities, but it's a little scary how fast the bond market has moved. I've been worried about frothiness in markets for months and am about 1/3 in gold, so downward movement has been pretty slight for me.
There is a still a lot of unknowns right now about the spread. I wouldn't rush into stocks just yet, but it's good to start looking for names.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26506627 - 02/27/20 02:26 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Fuck it. Ok. I'm concerned.
I had some long dated puts I bought back in October and I figured we reached the lows around 10:30 today, so I sold them out and bought some vanguard equity index. It was only a couple of grand, like less than 2% of my portfolio, but it just kept dropping into the close.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26507433 - 02/27/20 11:55 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Yep. Am selling the rest of my TSLA holdings now... lost out on about $1500, but still profited quite nicely. These markets are crazy, but I am luckily in a position where it is very easy to fully liquidate and wait out the storm.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Baby_Hitler
Errorist




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26507502 - 02/28/20 12:48 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Most of my holdings are in a Vanguard 2055 target retirement fund, so my bunghole isn't as raw as it would have been in If had been in the S&P index fund, but I'm still down 8% for the year 2020 and 5% for the last 12 months on my main 401k, which is 2/3 of my retirement savings. The other third is in short-term fixed income investments, which are roughly keeping up with inflation, probably.
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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encryptor


Registered: 05/15/03
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#26507549 - 02/28/20 02:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I wouldn’t be trading stocks now. buy and hold!
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts] 2
#26507824 - 02/28/20 09:01 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Things are getting rather sporty in the market, aren't they? I haven't had much to say here, largely because I turned in my day trading hat for my Dad hat (and it's been pretty great honestly). But with this type of dislocation, I can't help but take some notice and start preparing myself for opportunity. Anyone actively long the market should have been stopped out of their trading positions already, and as the markets become more deeply oversold, begin looking for opportunities to deploy capital for a reversion trade. Note that, so far as I'm concerned, any such reversion trades would be short term in nature.
I cannot hold any confidence in medium to longer term trades, as the vast majority of businesses have some relation to China (either buying products made there or selling products there), so the collapse in that economy will be fairly devastating to global economic activity. It is simply not knowable at this point when China will normalize, or whether the rest of the world, or to what extent, will experience similar disruptions as (in my opinion) futile attempts to contain SARS-CoV-2 are implemented. Because this virus has an apparently low mortality rate and is even asymptomatic in many carriers, containment is very unlikely. Counterintuitively, the much more deadly H5N1 virus from 1997-ish, which had a mortality rate of 60%, only took out less than 500 people precisely because it was so easy to identify carriers, or they died quickly. On that note, I suspect that the current SARS-CoV-2 will be another - I think the fifth? - not particularly deadly but nevertheless endemic virus that humans will have to live with for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, in the midst of the panicked attempts to stop its spread, economic activity will be severely affected, and that's why markets are in turmoil. Until this frenzy calms down, there is no rational way to gauge the severity of the economic impacts that will be incurred, and that, in conjunction with the ridiculously exuberant sentiment the markets had heading into this event, is why we are seeing the mass exodus from equities that we are.
Play it close to the vest. Cash is a position. There will very likely be a tremendous buying opportunity once the dust settles, but the dust is likely far from settled so just trade small and opportunistically, or not at all in the meanwhile. Best of luck.
PS. Sentiment indicators:- % of stocks above their 200 day moving average = 18% (The December 2018 low was 7.5%)
- % of stocks above their 40 day moving average = 4.95% (The December 2018 low was 3.55%)
- VIX @ 49 (December 28, 2018 VIX peaked at 36.20)
- Smart/Dumb Money Confidence: 0.62 / 0.31, a 31% differential. Above 40% makes for a good contrarian signal
TLDR: We are due for a bounce, and there are tepid buyers coming into the market right now, but the long term outlook is entirely unclear and I would strongly advise against holding large positions over the weekend.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26508173 - 02/28/20 12:57 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I work at an Amazon facility that receives products directly from manufacturers. Volume is down which managers said was caused by the corona virus with reduced shipments coming from China.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
#26508758 - 02/28/20 07:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: I work at an Amazon facility that receives products directly from manufacturers. Volume is down which managers said was caused by the corona virus with reduced shipments coming from China.
I'm sorry to hear that, my man. I hope your boss gives you a raise.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#26508960 - 02/28/20 10:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I have a very small lot of UVXY Apr $26 puts, purchased at $5.80 mid day today. So far so good, but only because of the rip your face off rally in the last half hour of trading. The position is so small, that I have open orders at $5 and $4 to double and triple down, respectively, and even then it would remain a relatively modest position on my books.
The big move up at the end of the day makes some sense, as after such a huge down week, shorts would be foolish not to cover their positions going into the weekend. On the other hand, I could have just as easily made a case for no one wanting to be long going into the weekend, given headline risk related to the spread of the virus, so pick your poison...
I would expect that, absent some terrible headlines over the weekend, the path of least resistance on Monday will be to the upside. Should be a pretty good day for trading, but again, I think that everything needs to be viewed through a short-term lens amidst the absolute uncertainty regarding how long and to what extent global supply chains will remain strained as the attempts to contain the virus play out.
For trades on Monday, I'd consider BX, AYX, CMG, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, and MA/V.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26508981 - 02/28/20 10:29 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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You're a brave man shorting leveraged volatility in a bear market. Do what the big boys are doing, sit on cash and don't buy anything. Read those transcripts.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#26512063 - 03/01/20 10:47 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Through position size and the utilization of put option contracts, I have effectively limited my risk. With the percentage of stocks below their 40 day moving average at 7%, that is pretty extreme level; so unless we get some really surprising headlines, we are likely to snap back early this week. I will be looking for short-term aggressively long opportunities. Emphasis on short-term... but when markets are as volatile as they are right now, short term moves can be very impressive. Keep stops below any Friday lows (or early morning plunge lows) and trade with confidence. I'm not saying this is "the bottom", I'm just saying that it looks like we can get some really sweet upside trades this week.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26513623 - 03/02/20 09:12 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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There's that nice +4.33% on the S&P, +5.16% on the Nasdaq. I was up early this morning, and I wish that I could say that I killed it... but the open was tepid, and indeed a bonafide fake out as the opening rotation (i.e. 15min candle) was violated to the downside during the second half hour. Buying the move above the opening rotation would have been the smart play, but I had resigned at that point and so, plain and simple, I missed the big run, the quick run that I had been looking for. Trading is just not that easy. At least those UVXY puts I bought at the top yesterday put in a bit of a showing, that I expect will continue to pay off.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26513631 - 03/02/20 09:17 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Good call, Geo! Tell me when you switch back to calls.
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today mylove



Registered: 12/04/04
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#26514141 - 03/03/20 08:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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we expecting this to drop further after this snapback? looking to deploy some cash opportunistically in VOO for continued long term holding. hard not to be glued to the charts these days, damn
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove]
#26515372 - 03/03/20 07:55 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I think it's going to drop a lot more. The market isn't pricing in 10's of thousands of deaths in the USA yet. I don't think.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Baby_Hitler
Errorist




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26515688 - 03/04/20 12:32 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I've lost about 7% of my 401k so far. I was thinking I would keep it where it is and hope for a rebound, but OTOH, maybe I should cut my losses, and move it all back into the capital preservation fund before the bottom falls completely out.
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#26520394 - 03/06/20 10:36 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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took a small nibble on an s&p etf and a couple companies i like long term... was a small portion of the cash i have on hand but i'm already feeling like this was a mistake and the market is going to roll over on me. feck. gotta be patient here
Edited by today mylove (03/06/20 10:37 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26524708 - 03/08/20 10:01 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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In addition to the (to be expected) deteriorating situation regarding global SARS-CoV-2 infections, it appears OPEC+ has been unable to come to an agreement regarding production curbs. This means that we have both reduced demand alongside oversupply problems with oil, which is causing it to get absolutely crushed, down 30%+ as of this writing. This could be very bad for many of the US based shale producers, which in turn could have follow on negative effects for housing in markets that rely on the US shale oil production boom in places like North Dakota and Montana. Asian markets are getting hit hard, and the S&P futures are hitting a maximum "circuit breaker" limit of down 5% right now on the Sunday session.
Quote:
Once the market opens, NYSE circuit breakers work like this: trading halts for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 falls 7% (to 2,764) at any time before 3:25 p.m. ET. Another 15-minute pause is triggered if losses reaches 13% (2,586). If the decline hits 20% (2,377.9), markets will close for the day. With the exception of the final rule, circuit breakers are suspended during the final 35 minutes of trading.
Top that off with money flying into US Treasurys as a "safe haven" -- causing the 10 year yield to hit 0.5% (meaning you get a lousy $5 a year to tie up $1,000 of your money!) and this is what panic looks like. The last time the limit down overnight circuit breakers were hit, was when Donald Trump won the presidency. That trade actually worked out pretty well to the upside. Buckle up, and if you don't know how to swim, stay out of the water. If markets open tomorrow at this level (or lower), we will have taken out the February lows... and lower lows, well let's just say they aren't an encouraging sign.
Best of luck.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Baby_Hitler
Errorist




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26524809 - 03/08/20 11:42 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I done cut my stocks exposure down to 19% of my portfolio last week. The rest is in Bonds and Stable Value funds.
At this point, I'm just waiting until the bottom in in sight.
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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