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Brian Jones
Club 27



Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 12,340
Loc: attending Snake Church
Last seen: 4 hours, 28 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#26202892 - 09/22/19 01:30 PM (4 years, 4 months ago) |
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I see no possibility of retirement and will not apply for social security until I'm 70. I lost everything a few years ago with medical issues and my credit scores went from 800 to 400 in 2017. I know the conventional wisdom on bonds to stock ratios with age. Are bonds currently even any better than money market?
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones] 1
#26204975 - 09/23/19 03:37 PM (4 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: Hey geo and others, what is your prediction on the performance of mutual funds that go for a lot of dividend income, if a recession hits? I'm about to get hired on with a 401k and I figure matching funds are always a good idea, even in uncertain times. I was thinking maybe an income fund would be better than an index fund (S&P 500 or total stock market), for right now. My time frame is not short, but not as long as most others. I'm 62.
I generally like where your head's at with this consideration. A high yielding portfolio is slightly more conservative than a total market portfolio, while still affording you the opportunity for capital growth. Dividend yielding stocks can provide some insulation in the event of a market downturn, as their yield becomes larger and thus more attractive, the lower the share price tumbles. However, I don't think that they are as resilient as they have traditionally been considered, since so much trading these days is basketed into large algorithmic funds to begin with. Further, not all dividends are created equal. Look closely at the holdings of whatever income fund you might be considering, and make sure that they have a rock solid history of being able to cover their payouts without a cut, even in hard times.
Keep in mind that the S&P500's yield is currently around 2.28%, so you'll want to make sure that whatever income fund you're looking at can handily beat that, otherwise you may as well just keep the increased diversification afforded by a traditional S&P500 fund.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26261536 - 10/18/19 04:50 PM (4 years, 3 months ago) |
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Bonds will eventually get downgraded to junk bonds in the next downturn--they are not "safe" investment now, especially with the off-the-cuff QE. Youtube: Real Vision Retirement Financial Crisis I'm no expert fyi, just an arm-chair squiggly line bet maker.
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
Last seen: 15 hours, 19 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#26434284 - 01/15/20 02:33 AM (4 years, 14 days ago) |
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TSLA has gone berserk over the past year.
It is curious to me as the company still posted a net loss in 2019 - which makes me think this is all hype money coming in? I am wondering what people think of the future of this stock, it cant keep going up with this trajectory forever - would you buy, sell or hold long-term?
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26434369 - 01/15/20 06:02 AM (4 years, 14 days ago) |
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TSLA is at its ATH, I'd definitely be buying here...
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McGrimm
Professor of Peace


Registered: 04/24/17
Posts: 771
Last seen: 18 days, 12 hours
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#26446787 - 01/22/20 04:56 PM (4 years, 6 days ago) |
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Buying at an ATH? surely not
I do have a noob question for Geo and others. How can I get into developing a portfolio? I don't even know where to turn, but have wanted to invest in Tesla and others for some time
Short of going to a broker (unless thats my best bet) how can I start to invest in my future here....smartly
I have wanted to do index funds too, but cant seem to find the starting point..
thanks, from a blue collar investment noob
-------------------- In Peace or Pieces we shall move forward. Grimm
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: McGrimm]
#26446897 - 01/22/20 06:00 PM (4 years, 6 days ago) |
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Quote:
McGrimm said: Buying at an ATH? surely not
I do have a noob question for Geo and others. How can I get into developing a portfolio? I don't even know where to turn, but have wanted to invest in Tesla and others for some time
Short of going to a broker (unless thats my best bet) how can I start to invest in my future here....smartly
I have wanted to do index funds too, but cant seem to find the starting point..
thanks, from a blue collar investment noob
Yeah, that was sarcasm. Although it still went up $50 since I posted that tongue-in-cheek comment. I'm not touching that stock until the greater depression.
You'll need to open up an account with TDA (now Charles Schwab), or Merrill Lynch. Set up your account with restrictions against yourself--like no Options or Margin use so you don't ruin your life gambling in stocks. Do research on the companies you'd like to buy, and buy and hold long term. These services have brokers that will give you a call when they see you doing stupid shit, so you won't have to directly interact with them, but they will reach out to you and check when (they think that) you're about to fuck up.
Feel free to me or Geo for more guidance. This stuff will consume your free time, and you'll look forward to Mondays because of it.
No problem, from a guy who went from blue, to green, and finally to white collar. (I miss the blue collar shenanigans from the guys, but not the body-killing labor; Green collar work was the sweet spot of the work/life balance.)
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: McGrimm] 1
#26446914 - 01/22/20 06:14 PM (4 years, 6 days ago) |
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I like using Vanguard, but have previously used Sogotrade and Etrade. Vanguard offers free stock sales now - so that is handy. Plus, free buying of their funds and etfs.
Do some reading. Don't be like me and waste money. Sure, if you want to gamble some and buy Tsla for twice as much as you would have paid 5 months ago - be my guest...but you will probably have better success buying funds.
Read investment books. They all say the same thing. Don't try to time the market. Buy and hold. Invest in good value.
PM with questions or concerns.
Also, make sure you have 6 months to a year in spending cash before you invest. You need an emergency fund. Break and arm. 5,000. Furnace goes out. 5,000. You catch my drift?
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McGrimm
Professor of Peace


Registered: 04/24/17
Posts: 771
Last seen: 18 days, 12 hours
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
#26447102 - 01/22/20 07:57 PM (4 years, 6 days ago) |
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Quote:
AroundtheSon said: I like using Vanguard, but have previously used Sogotrade and Etrade. Vanguard offers free stock sales now - so that is handy. Plus, free buying of their funds and etfs.
Do some reading. Don't be like me and waste money. Sure, if you want to gamble some and buy Tsla for twice as much as you would have paid 5 months ago - be my guest...but you will probably have better success buying funds.
Read investment books. They all say the same thing. Don't try to time the market. Buy and hold. Invest in good value.
PM with questions or concerns.
Also, make sure you have 6 months to a year in spending cash before you invest. You need an emergency fund. Break and arm. 5,000. Furnace goes out. 5,000. You catch my drift?
ok. you guys are awesome. Thank you so much for the replies. A lot of good info
I understand the idea of 6mo to a year spending cash as a backup. But then emergency fund - break and arm - 5,000 furnace goes out
I think that is saying keep 5k in case everything goes at a loss, right?
-------------------- In Peace or Pieces we shall move forward. Grimm
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: McGrimm]
#26447185 - 01/22/20 08:50 PM (4 years, 6 days ago) |
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Most personal financial advisors go with 3-6 months of expenses
So like 3 months of rent, gas, car payments, groceries, phone bills, etc. For most people that would probably be more than 5k, but each person's living situation is different.
If you got in an accident and couldn't work for a few weeks and needed to pay for car repairs or had to wait for insurance to pay out, you need to make sure you have enough money to cover a situation like that.
Or you get laid off and it takes you a while to find another suitable job.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
Edited by Ahab McBathsalts (01/23/20 05:46 AM)
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26447669 - 01/23/20 06:12 AM (4 years, 6 days ago) |
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: Most personal financial advisors go with 3-6 months of expenses
So like 3 months of rent, gas, car payments, groceries, phone bills, etc. For most people that would probably be more than 5k, but each person's living situation is different.
For normal people that struggle with adjusting their lifestyle. For me and everyone else who grew up dirt-poor, they greatly underestimate how fast we can cut out the excess and live off of nearly-nothing (13.5k a year).
I'm in the blessed position of being a bachelor, so ymmv.
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: McGrimm]
#26451947 - 01/25/20 01:54 PM (4 years, 3 days ago) |
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Yes, sorry for not being more clear.
You need a small boatload of cash, in my opinion, before investing in the market. Shit happens. A lot. If you have to replace your furnace and don't have cash...guess what, you go without and/or have to use credit to obtain a repair. What are current interest rates? You can't make enough money in the market to cover one month of interest - ya dig?
Cash is the shittiest king of babylon, but it is a thing that makes life easy or difficult (at times). Plus, we just had a 10 year bull run. Sure, the market could go up for another year or two, but in my mind, this economy is not stable---one trigger and we are going downtown.
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
#26452007 - 01/25/20 02:29 PM (4 years, 3 days ago) |
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Quote:
AroundtheSon said: Yes, sorry for not being more clear. ...this economy is not stable---one trigger and we are going downtown.
DOWNTOWN. DOWNTOWN. DOWNTOWN!
DOOOOOOOWNTOWN!
Let it buuuuurn!
Save us Papa Powell, you're our only hope. Keep printing money, feed the ponzi, stonks only go up!
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#26452268 - 01/25/20 05:19 PM (4 years, 3 days ago) |
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Quote:
BayerPhi said:
Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: Most personal financial advisors go with 3-6 months of expenses
So like 3 months of rent, gas, car payments, groceries, phone bills, etc. For most people that would probably be more than 5k, but each person's living situation is different.
For normal people that struggle with adjusting their lifestyle. For me and everyone else who grew up dirt-poor, they greatly underestimate how fast we can cut out the excess and live off of nearly-nothing (13.5k a year).
I'm in the blessed position of being a bachelor, so ymmv.
Exactly. I shouldn't have been so presumptuous. This feedback is actually better than what I wrote. I forgot people live crazy lifestyles.
My dad always said, it's easier to spend less than it is to make more. I took that to heart. We grow much of our own food (during season), and don't eat out much. We spend a little bit more now that we have accumulated some, but we know how to live poor as fuck - the key to being wealthy.
Plus, from a practical perspective? What is wealth? Just as the above poster mentioned - it's a freaking ponzi scheme anyway. I like to measure wealth by my health, friendships, and free time.
Happy trading!
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
Last seen: 15 hours, 19 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
#26489184 - 02/16/20 10:45 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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i just put in an order to sell all my holdings of TSLA. It was in a Roth since last year and has more than tripled my balance. I am going to diversify into some blue chip dividend stocks and go from there. Needed a boost getting into the retirement game a bit late and am considering this a nice little win to get the account started. Couldve maximized profits at $960 a week ago but im not a stock market expert. Merely luck and im happy to have any profits.
Am hoping the stock dips again, even to the $500 range. If it does ill buy in again with this years contributions. Any of the experts here agree with this move or should I have stuck with a winning horse?
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
Edited by ManianFH (02/17/20 01:17 AM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26489474 - 02/17/20 05:31 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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I don't think the valuation is anywhere near fundamentals. Green energy is being mandated by so many funds and pensions and shit. Managers don't want to be anywhere near conventional oil and gas stocks.
Everything in this space is going up hugely. I got into to Transalta Renewables a while back. It's a utility, like regular cashflows, big dividend, a boring utility. It's up like 80% in the past year, the PE has expanded to like 21x. Money managers are crowding in these names and it's like a green bubble. Take some off the table, but I wouldn't want to put any fresh money in these names.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26489850 - 02/17/20 11:41 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
mick said: i just put in an order to sell all my holdings of TSLA. It was in a Roth since last year and has more than tripled my balance [...] Am hoping the stock dips again, even to the $500 range. If it does ill buy in again with this years contributions. Any of the experts here agree with this move or should I have stuck with a winning horse?
Congratulations on an excellent trade, and I think you are fine to have taken profits. Reallocating that capital into a more conservative dividend paying basket of stocks makes sense as a way to maintain exposure to a strong market, while potentially limiting your downside risk after a huge run.
One caveat that I would note, surrounds TSLA's announcement last week regarding a secondary offering of $2 billion in new shares (i.e. dilution) priced at $767. The fact that the stock has not meaningfully broken that offering price in the wake of the news, despite its huge runup, indicates that there remains a very strong appetite from buyers. Therefore, I don't necessarily think you would be wrong to continue holding TSLA either! But for those who are, I would suggest keeping a sell stop just below the secondary offering price of $767, say at $740 (which was the opening low on Thursday morning that immediately found aggressive buyers to soak up the supply, and which equates to risking a 7% loss from Friday's closing price). If the stock doesn't break that level again, it likely has more room to run higher.
On the flip side, there are some tangible risks such as the temporary closure of their Chinese gigafactory due to the coronavirus issue, and how that issue may ripple out with regard to ongoing production and sales, should the pandemic shock the broader economy in a more lasting way.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
Last seen: 15 hours, 19 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26490567 - 02/17/20 05:47 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Thanks for the response guys. I had the order in but today happened to be a holiday. My wife has convinced me to pull the order and consider selling half or less, thus taking a small portion to diversify but still keeping a decent exposure to the company. Reading this makes me think it is a better idea to have a bit of both worlds .
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26505258 - 02/26/20 05:39 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I'm waiting for a money matters poast about how the sky is falling in stocks, but it still hasn't shown up.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
Last seen: 15 hours, 19 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26505771 - 02/27/20 01:15 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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yeah I logged in looking for something of the kind too.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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