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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 5, 2008 - COG, NUE, RIG [Re: AroundtheSon]
#8731907 - 08/06/08 12:14 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Yea what he said ^^
And for some personal notes:- Until oil and natural gas commodity prices (via the futures contract trading system) can stabilize, the natural gas and oil stocks are just going to be way too volatile. And by volatile, I mean that they will be biased towards the downside in the near future. Yes, it is probably true that most of those oil and gas companies could be held for the long term.. However, in addition to attempting to outperform the market by avoiding further downside, there are also a couple of other reasons driving my decisions:
- I was not diversified. Had way too much of my money in oil and gas... too many eggs in one basket is a risky maneauver, as any sector can fall out of favor on a whim - just look at what happened to my natural gas and steel holdings. Many of them took better than 10% hits in a single day! In order to balance my portfolio exposure across various sectors, it seemed necessary to cut loose some of my oil and materials exposure.
- Lastly, I have a head spinning with matters of a personal nature. Quite frankly, most of my energy is going straight towards keeping my sanity and well-being intact... and with such taxing matters in mind, I am just not being very responsible with my investments. That is to say, I am not giving them the time and homework they deserve (which is probably one of the reasons I got caught so heartily in the oil and materials selloff these past weeks). I am also going on a five day camping trip in Yosemite towards the end of this week, so seeing as I'll be out in the woods shittin' in bushes (read: unable to trade), it makes sense to lighten my exposure even more.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 5, 2008 - COG, NUE, RIG [Re: geokills]
#8734077 - 08/06/08 02:14 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Hey everyone, I'm new to this thread, but I just invested in NLR (nuclear energy ETF) and NRG (diversified power generation utiltiy). These stocks seem undervalued to me right now. What are you guys thinking about the energy sector?
I was also thinking about buying SPH (propane company) as an investment because of their good dividends, but I'm thinking I'll hold off for a little while. I'm guessing the price of oil will have an impact on this company. The price has dropped considerably in June and then leveled out through July. Any thoughts on this?
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: geokills]
#8743548 - 08/08/08 11:31 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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- Walmart (WMT) - Bought 18 shares @ $57.50
This best of breed retailer got hit yesterday on account of same store sales figures that came in a paltry half percent less than expected (3.0% growth versus 3.5% growth). This disappointment resulted in the stock down some 6% plus, bringing the position back to my basis. As I still believe Walmart is one of the best positioned retailers for the current economic climate, particularly as they get a large portion of their revenue from food sales, I am adding to my position here.
- Nucor Steel (NUE) - Closed position at $52
All of the materials and oil names are under so much pressure right now. The correction probably still has a little ways to go, and even though Nucor is reasonably valued, I don't think we'll see much upside to the shares until the commodity picture can stabilize and we move through the rocky economic concerns that are not only plaguing the US, but have spread to include the entire world. As long as there is the perception out there that worldwide economic growth may be slowing, a lid will be kept on stocks like Nucor steel, which thrives on economic growth. All of my metals/material exposure now rests in Freeport McMoran (FCX), which is predominantly copper, along with a splash of gold and molybdenum.
- McDonalds (MCD) - Sold 20 shares at $65.30
McDonalds reports continued sales momentum, with global comparable sales up 8% in July. This is no doubt on account of their improved menu, particularly the new concentration on higher margin beverage products such as their premium coffees. I still like the stock quite a bit, and will look to buy these shares back on any weakness. But with the stock up nearly 6% today, and up almost 13% in less than two weeks, it seems reasonable to book some of these gains, with shares now trading 20% over my cost basis. Quick moves like this are often met with a bit of a cool down period, and if we get that, I will be buying these shares back for less money!
And with that li'l bit of maneauvering, I feel comfortable leaving my desk through Wednesday to hike 35 miles up the Tuolumne River in Yosemite! 
Discretionary Portfolio as of 08/08/08:- 27% Cash
- 7.7% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
- 7.6% Walmart (WMT)
- 7.3% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 7.2% CPFL Energia (CPL)
- 7.0% Altria (MO)
- 6.9% Research in Motion (RIMM)
- 6.7% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
- 6.6% Deere (DE)
- 6.3% McDonalds (MCD)
- 3.8% Apple (AAPL)
- 3.1% Schering Plough (SGP)
- 3.0% Devon Energy (DVN)
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: geokills]
#8744500 - 08/08/08 02:24 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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What are your thoughts on DVN? Based on my research it seems like a great company worth way more than $90/share. I would really like to break even, but my cost basis is at ~$100. I am inclined to hold it at this point. Oil hasn't declined it has just returned to normal. This whole oil sell off crap is so characteristic of the masses.
Quote:
A few men running from angry Jesus jump off a cliff so they will be safe in hell. The rest decide to follow because they are screwed both ways and at least by jumping they can feel like they did something.
That reminds me, won't oil exploration stocks jump if the right candidate is elected? Surely, presidential elections factor into these things.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8745644 - 08/08/08 06:43 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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2nd quarter profits were up 44% for DVN and production was up 4% - announced August 6. I have this on my watch list, too, but since oil keeps falling, I haven't bought in yet. Maybe the general state of the market is just pulling it down.
I heard tech stocks do well this time of year. I may buy Intel or AMD.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8745707 - 08/08/08 07:01 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Just about to hit the road here so I must be brief. I do still like Devon Energy. It is among the largest independent oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the US, and once the price of oil and natural gas stabilize, it should resume its uptrend. But until oil and gas stabilize via the futures contracts, you need to be very careful when buying into these stocks. The trend for the moment is down, and trends are powerful, even if they are primarily psychologically driven. This is probably not a bad place to start initiating a position, but build your position slowly using wide scales.
As for presidents, McCain wants to work on opening up the coastal waters for more drilling, but that probably won't affect any specific oil company very much. If you wanted to play this thesis, you'd want to look towards the companies that supply parts and services to the off-shore drilling market. The names escape me at the moment, and I unfortunately don't have time to do the legwork right now.
pothead_bob, if you're looking for a tech stock - think about Qualcom (QCOM), as they stand to benefit from the new product cycles in smart phone technology. Along the same lines, look over my most recent updates here and read my purchase notes for Research in Motion (RIMM). The stock is already up some 10% since I bought it, but it should continue to run up until the launch of their Blackberry Bold, and perhaps even longer into the launch of their Blackberry Thunder.
Have a good weekend e'ryone - hope I don't get mauled by any bears on the mountain!
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8745833 - 08/08/08 07:35 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Look at Hercules Technology Growth Fund (HTGC). It has a sweet dividend. I bought it on the hope of an upswing recently and couldn't resist selling it today for 15% gain. It is pretty volatile, but looks to be on the upswing. I didn't know it was tech season, but that makes sense with people headed for winter hibernation and christmas...
Speaking of dividend stocks, Frontline Ltd. (FRO) is water transportation and could launch off it's recent stability on news of falling energy prices.
S&P has DVN at $137 in 12 months which is heartening. 137 / 100 is 37% gain. 
--
Have a good one geo. Don't feel like you have to do legwork for me. I just want your spur of the moment opinion.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8745862 - 08/08/08 07:42 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Wow, those dividends are incredible and it looks like the price went verticle today. I think that my be my tech stock. I heard on Mad Money today and from a post on Google two days ago that August is typically the low point of tech stocks, so I figure I should get in now.
I'm hesitant with Qualcom because they're treading into new waters, having just recently reached a record high. That may not be a valid reason to worry, but for some reason it bothers me.
I also keep hearing on NPR about record breaking heating bills this winter and I honestly can't see oil staying down long considering the global demand, so I think I may buy a few shares of DVN come Monday. Just enough to get my feet wet.
Thanks for the tip on HTGC.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8746508 - 08/08/08 09:34 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I hear you on buying at the peak. You hope the stock is a baby Microsoft, but it could be at the 5 year max...
I tried Apple for the new iPhone, but they decided to report the profits of phones sales in small pieces as the customer's paid for them with their monthly plans. It never did anything. Bluh. RIMM for the blackberry is a good idea, but it is a little bit long for how I am feeling lately. I have been playing as if I might sell everything at any moment.
If you are into the Tech regulars like AMD and Intel, you might look at HP. I am an IT consultant and I have hated HP for years for producing junk, but they have really turned a corner as far as producing a quality product, especially laptops, which will be a majority eventually.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8747736 - 08/09/08 06:42 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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My friend made a pretty good profit on Apple, but I guess it really comes down to when you get in and out, as always.
That HTGC is in the financial sector. Do you think that will reflect the technology sector pretty well considering it's purpose? Or would it be wise to still look into a tech stock? I may purchase some of HTGC on Monday, but I wonder what it's going to do after such a big rally on Friday.
I was looking into AMD because it seems like a good company to me. I like their products and the stock price is pretty low right now at $5. At first it seemed like it was undervalued, but I've been hearing talk that Intel was grabbing up more of the market with their new products.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8749951 - 08/09/08 06:25 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I think HTGC will pull back soon. Even if it makes a few more points, it won't be worth it when it breaks under $10 again.
AMD is a great company, but they have no pricing power. Intel is THE name for corporate computers. Intel can price the same shit 20% higher and still maintain market share just for brand recognition. Besides that, Intel is much more diversified.
I mentioned Garmin and Nvidia in this thread right before they both took nose dives into the ground. They are still great companies and could be even more attractive now.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8752025 - 08/10/08 08:01 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I was thinking there would be a pullback for HTGC after Friday's big rally, so I was thinking about seeing how it responds Monday morning and then deciding if I should buy in or not. Did you mean to say that if it drops below $10 it will be worth it again? Or are you saying you don't think it is a valuable investment.
I did some research on AMD this morning and decided to hold off on that stock. I put an order in for 11 shares of DVN as I think that stock is quite undervalued. It may drop more in price, but I think I would be wise to start buying into this stock.
I feel like I should be figuring out what to invest in now, though, because there's talk that the market may rally this week due to oils big drop this past week.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Redstorm
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: geokills]
#8752125 - 08/10/08 08:51 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I'm not sure about their stocks, but some companies who serviced our company were:
NOV Hydralift MAN Diesel (A part of Man AG Group) Huisman-Itrec Schottel BJ Services Wartsila BV
I'm not even sure all of these are publicly traded, but I figured i would throw some essential suppliers out there.
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8753257 - 08/10/08 02:02 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
pothead_bob said: Did you mean to say that if it drops below $10 it will be worth it again? Or are you saying you don't think it is a valuable investment.
I meant that it will probably pull back to under $10 soon, just because it was so vertical Friday. I would try to get my money back in at $10, depending on how the first hour of trading goes, but I have to use it for tuition. 
I noticed that oil prices have affected HTGC, so that is one thing to watch. Speaking of watching, I discovered Yahoo Finance and it is the best resource I have found.
I'm glad to are buying DVN; it makes me feel better about holding it.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8758601 - 08/11/08 02:51 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Well I bought up HTGC near the beginning of the day and made out pretty well at a gain of about 3.8%. I think I'll hold onto that stock for a little while considering the big dividends it pays.
Actually, a lot of my stocks did well today (AT&T, Con Ed, NRG, DVN), but I have one that is pissing me off lately. I held NLR when it was up around $40, then sold it off at $36. It dropped to $29 and I bought back in thinking it was prepared to find some upward momentum, but it looks like it's still sliding.
Unfortunatley, I stupidly put a lot of my money into that stock. So now I don't know if I should sell it off and take the hit or hold onto it hoping it will make a comeback. It may just keep sliding.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8759379 - 08/11/08 05:45 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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I feel your pain. You can never decide if you should give up and move your money where it will start to make up the loss or go long and stay where you are.
I had to resist buying back into HTGC when it only dipped .25 this morning.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8759504 - 08/11/08 06:12 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Yeah, it's killing me. That and I have quite a few shares of SLV and GLD which have been ass pounding me for the last week or so. But I'm feeling like those will come back. The only reason the dollar is rallying is due to a weaker Euro, or so I've read. This NLR, though, isn't even a year old, so I don't really know what to expect of it. It's mostly backed by utilities, and metals and fuel mining companies. Hopefully they start doing well soon?
Jim Cramer said that most financial stocks hit their lows in mid-July and that they are coming back now. I'm skeptical. I'm worried the worst might not yet be over, but if it is, these prices are bargains right now. Maybe I'll put a couple hundred into Wachovia. I'll have to think about it.
So you didn't buy back into HTGC then?
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8759551 - 08/11/08 06:22 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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No, I really wanted to, but I have bills to pay. I am convinced that dividends are the secret to investing and it has a great one. I only recently sold off my Qwest as I believed it was tanking and I had held it long enough to qualify for the dividend. It just spiked back up to where I wanted it. It just goes to show that rational thought doesn't apply here.
I would agree on financials. The world turns on money and they will bounce back. I just hope all the fucking bitches driving hummers they bought on their credit cards don't get off easy. I live in a small apartment because I know I can't afford a house and it pisses me off that people can just default and walk away...
/endrant
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: Terillius]
#8761951 - 08/12/08 08:48 AM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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Thankfully I didn't decide to get into financials today. They're tumbling pretty big. I think I'll be waiting a while to see what happens in that sector before considering investing.
I'm thinking I might buy up some more HTGC before the day is out. The dividend declaration date is in 3 days, which means I'll have just enough time to get in and collect September dividends. I've heard you could sell a stock after the declarations date and still collect the dividends. Maybe I should dump $4,000 in and pull it back out after shareholders are declared.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2008 - WMT, NUE, MCD [Re: pothead_bob]
#8764326 - 08/12/08 06:38 PM (15 years, 5 months ago) |
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From Wikipedia:
Quote:
Declaration date The declaration date is the day the Board of Directors announces its intention to pay a dividend. On this day, a liability is created and the company records that liability on its books; it now owes the money to the stockholders. On the declaration date, the Board will also announce a date of record and a payment date.
Ex-dividend date The ex-dividend date is the day on which all shares bought and sold no longer come attached with the right to be paid the most recently declared dividend. This is an important date for any company that has many stockholders, including those that trade on exchanges, as it makes reconciliation of who is to be paid the dividend easier. Prior to this date, the stock is said to be cum dividend ('with dividend'): existing holders of the stock and anyone who buys it will receive the dividend, whereas any holders selling the stock lose their right to the dividend. On and after this date the stock becomes ex dividend: existing holders of the stock will receive the dividend even if they now sell the stock, whereas anyone who now buys the stock now will not receive the dividend.
It is relatively common for a stock's price to decrease on the ex-dividend date by an amount roughly equal to the dividend paid. This reflects the decrease in the company's assets resulting from the declaration of the dividend. The company does not take any explicit action to adjust its stock price; in an efficient market, buyers and sellers will automatically price this in.
Record date Shareholders who properly registered their ownership on or before the date of record will receive the dividend. Shareholders who are not registered as of this date will not receive the dividend. Registration in most countries is essentially automatic for shares purchased before the ex-dividend date.
It sounds like you have to buy it before the date of record and hold it until after the ex-dividend date. I remember reading somewhere that their are rules or technicalities that prevent people jumping in and out like that.
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