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InvisibleBayerPhi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ashfiken]
    #25368728 - 08/05/18 06:01 PM (5 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

ashfiken said:
Which foreign markets tho is the question!
Germany took a dump with dousche bank recently. I guess I'd look at asian markets?? England since brexit has been steady and making a comeback.
Where to play? If not in the good ol USA?
I'd like some discussion on this here. I like some Canadian institutions bc they are pretty steady and stout if not lucrative..

Cheers




Good ol' USA has been doing good for a good while now. However...
The yield curve is flattening, Greedy fools are in the white house, wages haven't risen for many years, the dollar is headed for inflation, and the last tax cut for the wealthy (with them dumping that money into their stocks) is an upcoming "Apres moi le deluge" situation. Beginning in 2019, and the next "recession's" full effect will come into place say... 2020-2021.

Quite honestly, I do not think most Americans have the knowledge or foresight to deal with what is to come, nor have we made any preparations. Especially here in the good ol' south...
People's emotions are getting the best of them, and are going to take them for a ride. So get ready for some even angrier people, but now without jobs.

Despite all that, I am looking at India, China, and whether it be treasonous or not--Russia's market.
India is booming. I was the only white guy AND American in my field in grad school, I was surrounded by Indians, Nepalians, etc.
I want to scoop up some of China's market as the trade wars knock her down, because she will recover strong.
And Russia's market has been bad for so long, imo she to me is synonymous to someone who has survive a suicide attempt and now wants what's best. If the people wrestle some control of Russia from Putin and the Oligarchs, I see her market booming too.

What are y'alls thoughts and opinions?


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Onlineashfiken
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi] * 1
    #25368746 - 08/05/18 06:12 PM (5 years, 5 months ago)

I second Russia if the dollar gets toppled as the world reserve currency. They have been forced to sit on a yuuuge amount of oil reserves, and it's locale in relation to these other two powerful markets you speak of will catapult it,Imo. Selling tonnes of their oil to em for a relatively low cost in rubles and you will see many a Russian oil man turn into fucking tycoons. While that is currently being prevented by the dollhair and opec, it will explode some time sure enough. Idk bout your timeline but I feel it's completely possible I just don't see the sustained groth patterns in our economy. I see a lot of building and investing based on not much more than hope. I like the china idea b they will be Russians #1 guy and have the ability(as they are already a powerhouse) to go on a run once other economies are able to pick up the slack we will be dropping. And we will still be forced into buying their cheap goods as we will not be able to afford anything else.
India is the big ? For me. I just don't know enough , sounds like you do tho. All I know is they put out some smart sons of bitches and that means growth and innovativeness.
Good ideas all round tho methinks phi
Cheers


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25528367 - 10/10/18 10:17 PM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Been taking a break from trading over the past few months, where my trading account has been in all cash, but the action is starting to look rather sporty with today's knife slice through the S&P's 50 day moving average.  Rising interest rates are finally starting to spook the market.  Frankly I have been amazed that the rate hiking cycle wasn't causing more of a ruckus earlier, but the market does what the market does.  And honestly, my inability to make sense of the action is one of the major reasons I opted to become less involved as the market kept moving up into nosebleed territory, although with seemingly ever tightening breadth.

To the point, I'm am putting a few bids up in my trading account to fade the volatility.  Specifically looking to acquire VIX March 2019 $25 puts @ $5 and UVXY January 2019 $70 puts @ $10.  These positions will require continued violence to the downside if they are to be filled, but I am dipping my toe in the water conservatively.  With S&P futures already down another 20 points on top of today's carnage, perhaps some margin calls will kick in before the weekend hits and my bids will get hit.  If history is any guide, volatility always normalizes, and especially with a derivative such as UVXY that has an inherent value decay, picking up some long dated puts (or selling bear call spreads) on extreme spikes can be very profitable.  Note that these are initial purchases, and I am leaving myself room to increase the positions with higher strikes if the market really implodes.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25532264 - 10/12/18 01:05 PM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Among the choices available to most 401k retirement plans, where would be the safest place for your money to be in the event of a recession/depression?

Even the bond funds are looking sketchy these days. I expect to see rising interest rates, high inflation, and the economy generally in the shitter, globally, and soon.

I'm considering cutting back my 401k contributions to just what my company will match, and stockpile cash to buy up stocks after the market bottoms out.


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Edited by Baby_Hitler (10/12/18 01:09 PM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #25549778 - 10/19/18 10:01 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

In light of the Fed's minutes from its last meeting indicating that they are digging their heels in on their commitment to continued rate hikes through 2019, China's decelerating economic growth readings, the fact that it appears increasingly likely that a trade dispute with China will be prolonged on account of no progress from the negotiations to date, the possibility of democrats taking a majority in the midterm elections which will fuel fears of repealing the tax cuts that were recently implemented, the average PE of the S&P500 north of 20 when it historically rides around 15-16 (not to mention the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio north of 30 when it historically rides around 16), alongside the fact that this bull market has been running for a decade now and we have, this year, had two pretty major "shots across the bow" with the S&P falling violently onto its 200 day moving average... and I'm getting the feeling that we are probably due for a more meaningful correction over the coming 6-12 months.

I don't often mess with my retirement or kid's college savings accounts, occasionally doing some sector rebalancing, but I actually took part of them to cash for the first time ever on this week's bounce off of the S&P 500's 200 day moving average, as I am expecting further downside.  I'm not saying it's going to happen today or next week, and I think we could rally a few more % points off of the 200 day pretty easily, but I also get the feeling that ~2900 on the S&P has a decent probability of, in hindsight, becomming a double top for the year and that any number of the aforementioned issues can lead to a more prolonged downside event.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #25550615 - 10/19/18 03:15 PM (5 years, 3 months ago)

I've pulled everything out to cash now with the market cresting. I expect a solid recession soon and want to have a warchest to dive back in a year or two (while I keep my monthly savings deposits in a cash account.)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: automan]
    #25551661 - 10/20/18 04:21 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

I just moved everything in both my 401Ks to the lowest risk investments offered by each. Still putting in 6% since the company matches that much at 100%, fully vested. Before that, I had everything in S&P 500 index funds.

Not expecting to see it get much higher than it is now any time soon, and a good chance it will completely shit the bed sooner rather than later. I need to talk to the parents this weekend to see if they have all their shit somewhere "safe".


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InvisibleBayerPhi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #25551754 - 10/20/18 05:54 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Good time to begin averaging down, yes.
CD Ladders anyone?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler] * 1
    #25565174 - 10/25/18 12:59 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
I just moved everything in both my 401Ks to the lowest risk investments offered by each. Still putting in 6% since the company matches that much at 100%, fully vested. Before that, I had everything in S&P 500 index funds.

Not expecting to see it get much higher than it is now any time soon, and a good chance it will completely shit the bed sooner rather than later. I need to talk to the parents this weekend to see if they have all their shit somewhere "safe".









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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler] * 1
    #25565705 - 10/25/18 08:09 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Licking my chops in anticipation of picking up some put options on the UVXY, which is admittedly somewhat problematic given the high premiums involved, however can be a real boon for the patient since 1) volatility always reverts to the mean, eventually; and 2) the UVXY is constructed in such a manner that time based value decay is baked in (pull up a weekly chart going back a few years and you'll see what I mean).  It is worth noting that UVXY reduced their leverage this year to 1.5x instead of 2x, which will result in some normalization of the extremes it has printed in the past... but it can still cover a lot of ground when things get frosty.

Was hoping for a big gap down this morning to inflict max pain on the remaining trading bulls, which typically results in at least a short term rally and volatility collapse in the wake of a major spike.  Unfortunately, that isn't happening today.  The market actually gapped up, with little initial follow through although it is now starting to claw its way higher.  Put premium aka the VIX aka fear remains elevated, and I have a ladder of buy orders on Nov/Dec/Jan UVXY puts, set to trigger between $70-$100.  It's going to take some more panic selling for those orders to find their fill, but I'm playing it close the vest and only taking what I consider to be the highest probability opportunities, as there is a lot of regret (i.e. overhead resistance) in the charts that I would expect will be sold into, sooner or later.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25568071 - 10/25/18 11:48 PM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Hey, geo. So... I have some knowledge about a certain very large IT company which is spending a considerable amount of money on some equipment related to consumption of energy. So much that another rather large company that makes equipment that facilitates said consumption of energy is building another facility just to provide the first company with said equipment. I should also add that this company is making these purchases under an alias, and not under it's own name, ostensibly so that other companies who send other representatives to the facility currently manufacturing said equipment will not do a corporate espionage on them, or something.

My first priority, I think, should be to assess whether or not this information is common knowledge, and if my access to this information could possibly constitute "insider trading", or some other legally risky behavior, should I act upon it. If it is already common knowledge that this company is spending vast amounts of money on energy consumption equipment (presumably for data centers) then, obviously, my access to this information is nothing special, and there is no reason for me to act upon it, as only time will tell if this was a wise investment by them. On the other hand, if this is not common knowledge, in your opinion, could or should it be used to make investment decisions?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #25568463 - 10/26/18 07:14 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Your risk of prosecution by the SEC for insider trading will probably increase if:
  • You or a family member works at one of the companies involved.
  • The trade is extremely large or aggressive (e.g. buying short-dated options to capitalize on a near term catalyst).
  • The trade is counter to the prevailing trend of the company's stock.
  • The stock is thinly traded (i.e. low volume).


It's also worth noting that it is difficult to move the needle for very large companies.  For example, the data center and cloud computing sub-sector of technology is very strong, as evidenced by yesterday's earnings releases from Amazon and Microsoft reporting massive growth in their AWS and Azure platforms, respectively.  Even though the growth in those products was incredible, both have traded down on their reports due to other convoluting factors.

However, because MSFT and AMZN have shown that this sector is growing rapidly, savvy managers may know to look toward and invest in the ancillary companies that provide the infrastructure for these data centers to be built.  Of course, if the ancillary company is very small, attempting to trade it based on privileged information would be more liable to raise eyebrows than if you were trading a massive company that already sees a ton of trading action everyday.

Bottom line, the SEC loves to make an example of insider traders.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25568693 - 10/26/18 09:32 AM (5 years, 3 months ago)

Dipped my toe in the water with a very small lot of Nov $70 $UVXY puts this morning at $11.26. As I have posted previously, I have been eyeing an opportunity to put on a volatility reversion trade, and I think this is an appropriate place to begin scaling in. Out of respect for not knowing the future, I am starting out small and my trading plan incorporates maintaining capital to create a ladder of higher strike and longer expiration puts, should volatility continue to rise into next week.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25576555 - 10/29/18 02:32 PM (5 years, 2 months ago)

Nov $70 UVXY puts purchased Friday bagged a quick 20% this morning on the gap higher.  Reloaded into the weakness during the last hour of trading at the low low price of $9 per contract (a tidy 20% lower than my original purchase on Friday, for a 40% swing on the day).  Hoping to rinse and repeat, although the action today is very heavy, but the little bounce into the close would have me believe that we will probably see some stabilization tomorrow.  Still leaving the bulk of my account in cash in case we cascade lower into midweek, in which event I would be buying some higher strike UVXY puts.  After this week, I would move farther out to December contracts.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25577845 - 10/30/18 01:31 AM (5 years, 2 months ago)

Geo, what's your typical ROI for a year?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #25578165 - 10/30/18 08:23 AM (5 years, 2 months ago)

I am a student of the market, and this has been a learning experience fraught with variable results.  As such, I do not have a typical annual ROI, or even a typical ROI for any given trade.  When I have been in sync with the market, I have more than doubled my account inside of a few months.  When the market has been tough (or more aptly stated, when I have traded irresponsibly and without discipline), I have done the opposite almost as quickly.  Fortunately, it has been a long while since I have come close to blowing up my account, and this has come about largely by recognizing when not to trade in conjunction with implementing tighter risk management controls to prevent me from taking huge losses.  If you only accept high probability entries, and then back those trades up with strict stop loss and/or position sizing controls, the upside should take care of itself since you will take some small losses on the trades that don't work, but your winners will be given room to run.

If you're just looking for a number, my accounts are roughly 10x what I started with when I began trading 15 years ago, which would equate to around a 15%+ compound annual gain.  But honestly that number is misleading, and is definitely not something I even consider when taking a trade or reviewing my account balance.  I am happy to take what the market gives me, pressing my bets when the conditions appear favorable to my individual skill set and preferred trading style, during which time I may be making 5 or more individual trades in a single day.  During other times (which is in fact most of the time) when I am either unsure of the market, simply can't make sense of it or don't see any high probability trade setups, I will step back and trade less, and have at times (including recently) not made a single trade for months.

In my experience, if you are a trader (not someone who buys a diversified Vanguard fund or the SPY, but someone who picks individual stocks in attempts to outperform the broader averages), you will find that your gains tend to be clustered into very short periods of time, and that most of the time your account balance should be relatively stable, wobbling around a bit but generally within striking distance of your all time high.  The important thing to recognize is that if you are going to have a good shot at outperforming, you always need to keep an eye on the market.  This doesn't mean you always need to trade (and indeed that is one of the hardest lessons to take to heart), but you need to be aware of what is happening, so that when opportunities that suit your trading style present, you are there and ready to take full advantage of them.

This latest washout in the markets is what brought me back in, because I couldn't justify the valuations of the market back in September, the calm and persistent move higher made me uncomfortable.  I was having a hard time making sense of why the market kept grinding higher with such little volatility throughout most of the year in the face of what I perceived to be numerous headwinds (several of which I noted here).  I have always maintained some exposure through diversified funds in my retirement accounts, but I hadn't been actively trading for several months.  It seems that this could soon change, as volatility breeds opportunity for the patient.  If you aren't comfortable swing or day trading, don't jump in head first, but I personally find more rapidly moving markets more interesting and also easier for me to outperform in.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #25578173 - 10/30/18 08:30 AM (5 years, 2 months ago)

One more quick note, as you asked me about my ROI on the heels of my comment about a 20% gain over the weekend via UVXY Put Options.  The UVXY is a leveraged, short term instrument, and as such will carry a higher risk profile than a large cap stock like AAPL, potentially more so when you are using a time restricted derivative such as options to trade it (although when shorting a leveraged stock like UVXY, using options actually limits your risk, but I digress).  Simply, trading something as volatile as UVXY requires the most stringent of risk management.  In this case, I managed my risk through conservative position sizing, leaving myself plenty of capital to add to the position if prices became more favorable; alongside the intention to roll the option contracts to a later date and potentially higher strikes if the trade appeared to need more time to work (which make no mistake, would incur a near term loss and increase the risk profile of the trade as a whole).

In other words, although that single trade happened to see a 20% gain (and the lot I bought yesterday at $9 is currently up another 17%), things could easily have gone the other way.  In acknowledgement of the wide swings inherent to a trade like this, these are not big positions relative to whole account, and so a 20% move on such a trade when taken into the context of my entire account only moves the needle a few % in aggregate.  While it would be easy to say to oneself, wow I should've gone in with everything I had or, next time I'm going to double down!.. that is the type of greedy thinking that typically ends up showing you how humbling of an experience trading in the market can be, which is to say it will almost certainly bite you in the ass, sooner or later.  Hopefully sooner, so the lesson will have a better chance of sinking in before you go betting the farm after a string of lucky hits and losing your shirt.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #25580412 - 10/31/18 12:58 AM (5 years, 2 months ago)

Thank you for your candid response, Geo. I am not particularly eager to get into full-on trading, though I may set aside a grand or two some day just as gambling money. Right now I'm content to just play Red Light/Green Light with the SPY. It doesn't cost me anything to flip the switch, and, as far as I can tell, I get unlimited flips. The timing is unpredictable, though, and it may be one day, or two days, or maybe even more for the flipped switch to take effect. It's for this reason that I only flip it very occasionally, when I have a strong feeling about the medium-term future. in fact, I've only flipped it once in the last year, and that was to Red Light a couple of weeks ago. The SPY seems to be getting its legs back under it for now, and I am tempted to flip back to green to try to squeeze off a couple more percent for the year, but I think I should wait at least until the election to make that decision.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #25580980 - 10/31/18 08:22 AM (5 years, 2 months ago)

Attempting to market time in longer term accounts that have delays in trade execution can be problematic.  I would have a hard time "green lighting" a long term account on a day like today, where the SPY has already bounced some 5% off of its lows, as I suspect the 200 day moving average will provide upside resistance and a potential rollover and that's only some 2% higher than we are right now.  With execution delay, you might end up getting filled right before we head back down.  On the other hand, you might benefit from getting in ~8% below the all time highs that we end up blasting through in a few months.  Always impossible to know, and I surely don't have specific guidance for you.  It's much harder to tell someone what to do in their long term account versus a short term trade, as interrelated factors such as age/time to retirement and risk tolerance make managing long term accounts a uniquely individual proposition.

Regarding those Nov $70 UVXY puts, I closed half of my position this morning at $12.40 for a 38% gain over Monday's $9 purchase price.  As there are still 16 days to expiration on these contracts, I am going to wait to see if I can juice a little extra return on the remaining half, since UVXY is still elevated, and if the market does stabilize here and move up to tag its 200 day moving average, I suspect that I will be able to unload the remainder of the position at $15 (which would occur on a retracement to UVXY's 20 day moving average).


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25586211 - 11/02/18 07:49 AM (5 years, 2 months ago)

Closed the remainder of my Nov $70 UVXY puts this morning at $16, a 78% gain over Monday's $9 purchase price.  Also taking AAPL for a ride off of its gap down on earnings this morning.  Picked up Jan $200 calls near the open on the first green bar (for $16.20), sold 1/3 at $19.  Letting the remainder ride for a moment, with a stop at VWAP (volume weighted average price).  [Edit: Stop hit, booted out of AAPL]

Took a small position in OLLI, which is a mixed retail store that has been rapidly expanding its footprint, currently concentrated on the eastern side of the country, but they look to have plans to go full national.  The stock has held up extraordinarily well over this last month, nearly an all time high with a volatility squeeze at its 50 day moving average.  It's a good setup, of course the market will need to cooperate for a breakout.


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...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (11/02/18 07:55 AM)


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