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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25225284 - 05/24/18 10:37 AM (5 years, 8 months ago) |
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NFLX has been a thing of beauty, upside momentum continuing, although I would suspect it to close out the week here around $350 since that's a nice even option's expiration strike, and have reduced my position by 60% on account of this expectation as we head into a long weekend.
I did add some small initial exposure to AMZN via a single June 15th $1600 call. I don't really expect it to break out above $1600 this week, but the stock is coiling in a very tight range after trading sideways for a month after it's stellar earnings report. If the market is strong after Memorial Day, I could see this one taking another major leg higher, and wouldn't consider a move to tag $2,000 a share by end of the year unreasonable. Also worth noting is the Amazon Investor's Meeting slated for the 30th, which historically has been a positive for the stock.
So long as the S&P stays above 2700, I'm comfortable trading somewhat aggressively to the long side. If we start to close below 2700, I will begin to be more cautious and would want to see a quick bounce off of the S&P's 50 day at around 2675 to maintain comfort on a long bias.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25237955 - 05/30/18 10:01 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Small and mid caps are generally where the action is right now, as the concerns over European debt are keeping large cap multi-nationals under pressure due to currency risk, while the flight to US Treasuries is also putting pressure on the financial sector stocks. Small and mid caps however, aren't really exposed to the international debt issues that are plaguing the broader market here, and they also stand to benefit the most from recently implemented corporate tax breaks.
NFLX is pausing a bit after its breakout, but not giving back much ground. I was stopped out of the remainder of my position yesterday for some tidy profits, and I took another quick scalp today with some short term options for a few percentage points. A move above $356 should be bought, and as I have stated previously, I would not be surprised to see this one up at $400 before too long. AMZN is continuing to move higher although not convincingly breaking out of its volatility squeeze just yet. It may need more sideways work before a big leg up and I am out for right now as overnight swings in the options contracts on a $1600 stock can be brutal. Nevertheless, I will keep a close eye on it and trade opportunistically in case we do see a bonafide breakout. Volume is a little low today, but the stock is moving out of its range to the upside. I'm probably playing this one too close to the vest and should leave some exposure on the books, but I get a little jittery with this one for whatever reason.
Also want to note the additions of ETSY, YY, RPD and VG to my portfolio; these are all high growth stocks in various industries (and countries), and while I will always trade around positions, I have a mind to hold these for a bit longer than usual. I actually added ETSY and RPD last week, but YY was added today as it started to break out from a convergence of its moving averages; and VG is squeezing after a bounce off of its 50 day moving average, allowing for a fairly low risk entry (stop just below $11). Heads up that YY reports earnings on the 5th of June, so be mindful that if you ride this upside expansion, you don't want to go into earnings with an overweight trading position as you never know which way the stock will go.
Lastly, I did add a bit of exposure to AAPL today as well, as its 20 day moving average is catching up to price as the stock has traded sideways for weeks in a very tight range. This buy may be preemptive, but I want to watch this one closely and expect that it will move up to test $200 soon. Generally, I feel that the US market is fairly constructive here and my bias is shifting toward upside. Of course, a decisive break of the S&P's 200 day would change that notion rather quickly, but yesterday's bounce off of its 50 day and today's solid follow through does breed some confidence that we still have an underlying bid to our market.
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Edited by geokills (05/30/18 02:01 PM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25239866 - 05/31/18 07:52 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Big short squeeze underway on AAOI. 78.43% of the float (some 15 million shares) sold short as of two weeks ago. Average daily volume is less than a million shares/day, shorts got squeezed big time yesterday with very high volume of 3 million shares, but even if all of that action was short covering (it wasn't), that leaves a lot of shorts continuing to feel a lot of pain today. Bought at the open, trailing stop at $41.34 which I will keep moving up during the day. This is strictly a trading position predicated on pressing shorts to continue bidding up the stock in the short term.
RPD, ETSY, YY, all performing well and positive on a negative market opening.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25240092 - 05/31/18 09:27 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Out of AAOI for a quick 5%.
Creating an iron condor on NFLX that expires tomorrow for a 10% yield. The stock is still moving sideways after breaking out last week. I expect it to finish this week at around $350, with buyers showing up on Tuesday's whipsaw @ $346 and the 8 day EMA above $345. This in conjunction with the all time high at $356 as well as the upper bollinger band at $357, I figure the stock will stay constrained between $345 on the downside and $357.50 on the upside, and so the iron condor is as follows:
- Bull Put Spread
Sold to Open NFLX June 1 $345 put Bought to Open NFLX June 1 $342.50 put Net Credit: $0.25 per spread
- Bear Call Spread
Sold to Open NFLX June 1 $357.50 call Bought to Open NFLX June 1 $360 call Net Credit: $0.25 per spread
All of these options are "out of the money" with no intrinsic value, so they should all expire worthless at the end of the day tomorrow as long as NFLX stays between $345 and $357.50, thereby allowing me to keep the credit.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25241427 - 05/31/18 08:07 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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MU is a slut whore and I hate options.
Sunrun almost makes up for my pain though.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#25242161 - 06/01/18 07:06 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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... Options are powerful leveraged instruments, and that power cuts both ways. Sell stops, good entries and proper position sizing are always important, even more so when you're working with options.
I almost sold a bear call spread on MU yesterday, but it had moved too quickly by the time I was ready to execute and with my iron condor on NFLX as well as a handful of other positions, I didn't want to overfill my plate. If you haven't already, I would probably use this morning's strength to let go of MU today. This stock moved up to $60 from $10 only two years ago, and the fact that it was rejected so handily yesterday whilst visiting its March (multi-decade) highs of earlier this year would seem to indicate a double top is in the works. Selling volume was also heavy, indicating institutional liquidations.
It's easy to get attached to a stock that has treated you well, but remember that these are only tickets on a screen and if they aren't working, you need to let them go. Micron's story is very well known, otherwise it wouldn't have made the run it did. While it can always go higher, the technical picture shows an extended stock that failed at a key resistance level on volume. There are better options for your money right here... ETSY, NFLX, FB, ATHM, SQ, TRHC, RPD all working... AAPL and VG are coiling and looking to be getting ready for an upside breakout... SNAP might even work as a short-squeeze play here although the company is pretty terrible and so I would only use this idea as a short term trade candidate.
Best of luck.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25242224 - 06/01/18 08:14 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
- Bull Put Spread
Sold to Open NFLX June 1 $345 put Bought to Open NFLX June 1 $342.50 put Net Credit: $0.25 per spread
- Bear Call Spread
Sold to Open NFLX June 1 $357.50 call Bought to Open NFLX June 1 $360 call Net Credit: $0.25 per spread
Sold another tranche of the bear call spreads for a $0.40 premium as the stock tested its all time highs this morning and bounced back down on a volume spike. The bull put spread is pretty much in the bag at this point, but the bear call spread is dicey without a doubt, as any move above the $356.10 all time high will likely bring on additional buyers and put the $357.50 short call at risk of losing money quickly, thus requiring me to close the trade for a loss. I'm going to need to babysit this one, but if it works, it'll be a nice pay day. I am somewhat confident that the S&P is hitting the top of its short term range and the Nasdaq is also running into its upper bollinger band, and it's Friday where people don't generally want to put on a bunch of risk over the weekend... so hopefully NFLX goes back into the middle of its range around $352 and I can get off the edge of my seat.
Edit: Had an opportunity to make out like a bandit after selling that second tranche when the spread value dropped to $0.08. I got cocky and decided to hold out, watching the stock continually creep up to new highs, forcing me to sell the position for a not insignificant loss. The spread was still out of the money, but it just came too close for comfort and discipline required that I shut it down.
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Edited by geokills (06/01/18 10:00 AM)
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Bambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25254911 - 06/07/18 07:56 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: NFLX has been a thing of beauty, upside momentum continuing, although I would suspect it to close out the week here around $350 since that's a nice even option's expiration strike, and have reduced my position by 60% on account of this expectation as we head into a long weekend.
I did add some small initial exposure to AMZN via a single June 15th $1600 call. I don't really expect it to break out above $1600 this week, but the stock is coiling in a very tight range after trading sideways for a month after it's stellar earnings report. If the market is strong after Memorial Day, I could see this one taking another major leg higher, and wouldn't consider a move to tag $2,000 a share by end of the year unreasonable. Also worth noting is the Amazon Investor's Meeting slated for the 30th, which historically has been a positive for the stock.
So long as the S&P stays above 2700, I'm comfortable trading somewhat aggressively to the long side. If we start to close below 2700, I will begin to be more cautious and would want to see a quick bounce off of the S&P's 50 day at around 2675 to maintain comfort on a long bias.
Yo, thanks for mentioning this! So, the other week I finally rode my MU calls into some gains (I bought and sold 4 times between 4/19 and 5/24 with an average gain of 95%). I also had a quick 1 day gain of 22% on SNAP and made 83% off TGT calls right around the same time. So, I was feeling pretty great about my performance in May. Then, on Friday the 25th after the close, I was itching to continue my winning streak. I started doing some research and put in orders for some calls/puts and on Monday everything executed perfects at my limit orders, buying the dip in the morning and closing green. My buys were AMZN Jul 20 1700 calls, CMG Jul 20 380 puts, F Jan 17 2020 11.87 calls, and SNAP AUG 17 11 calls.
The reason I thanked you Geokills was because I think this comment got me to look into AMZN and I really liked the chart. I ended up selling this position for a 157% gain, my largest % gain this year. Hell ya. My SNAP calls averaged for 140% gain. I'm still holding my CMG puts (down ~70%) and F calls (up 20%).
Yesterday I bought AMD Jun 29 15 puts at the high and am up 70% already.
So far, I am loving options. I'm keeping my positions relatively small, but my account is still up ~40% for the year after being negative going into May.
Part of me wanted to post here to gloat, part to thank you, and of course, it's always good to stay involved in the community. Right now I'm laying low without much exposure. Gonna let my AMD puts run for a few more days I think. May as well hold onto the CMG puts, F calls, and some SKX calls I have too (all pretty small positions, at least they are now lol). Once I get some things taken care of at work and go on some vacations, I'll look again to increase my exposure. Good luck and happy trading everyone.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi] 1
#25256125 - 06/08/18 01:42 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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MU is a dirty slut that I love.
I sold out of some July 20 Calls and rolled them into some shares today.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#25256926 - 06/08/18 08:54 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Haha yeah. I held like 50 shares from 15 to 40 or something. Sold right at the very bottom in February... Whoops lol
Definitely had some good time with MU, that whore
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
Edited by Bambi (06/08/18 08:55 PM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#25346919 - 07/25/18 08:06 PM (5 years, 6 months ago) |
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FB had a hard miss on earnings today. There are going to be some pretty significant margin calls I'd bet.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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AroundtheSon
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#25346977 - 07/25/18 08:35 PM (5 years, 6 months ago) |
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i was expecting a downturn, but 24% or something crazy!!
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#25347813 - 07/26/18 10:05 AM (5 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yeah, the FB action is pretty nuts. Had a phenomenal trade last week on NFLX's gap down after their earnings, attempted to repeat the same on FB today but the action isn't as constructive, and I closed the day trade for a wash.
I am building some positions in retailers currently, namely URBN and ROST (although they are performing poorly today after a big morning pop). Also like DOCU, tight squeeze that looks ready to blow (long December $50 calls).
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25349929 - 07/27/18 08:11 AM (5 years, 6 months ago) |
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Closed out both the ROST and URBN positions. Market is near the top of its range, generally, and the action has been narrowing, with fewer individual issues working. With high profile names like AMZN barely able to get a good pop (selling off at the open) after a blowout earnings report, institutions seem to want to sell, and that's not a current I care to fight.
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BayerPhi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25365969 - 08/04/18 08:56 AM (5 years, 5 months ago) |
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Any recommendations for foreign market index funds, geokills?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#25367224 - 08/04/18 09:01 PM (5 years, 5 months ago) |
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I am not focused on any foreign markets presently, but here is a list of various instruments through which you can gain some targeted exposure: https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/international-stock
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BayerPhi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25367280 - 08/04/18 09:48 PM (5 years, 5 months ago) |
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Thank you. Is that just not your interest, or do you have a reason why you don't? More of an options kind of guy?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#25367350 - 08/04/18 10:39 PM (5 years, 5 months ago) |
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The US markets have been in such a strong multi-year uptrend, that I haven't had any motivation to go through the trouble of parsing through what is generally less immediate and less comprehensive information available to me, with regard to investing in foreign markets. I will sometimes trade individual foreign companies that have an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) on a domestic exchange, but I just don't have enough knowledge to make bets on foreign markets in aggregate.
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BayerPhi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#25367754 - 08/05/18 07:53 AM (5 years, 5 months ago) |
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I see that uptrend correcting soon, hence my questions. I'm betting these foreign markets are going to close the gap while we suffer our correction. I'll do some more reading.
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ashfiken
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#25368118 - 08/05/18 12:11 PM (5 years, 5 months ago) |
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Which foreign markets tho is the question! Germany took a dump with dousche bank recently. I guess I'd look at asian markets?? England since brexit has been steady and making a comeback. Where to play? If not in the good ol USA? I'd like some discussion on this here. I like some Canadian institutions bc they are pretty steady and stout if not lucrative..
Cheers
-------------------- hmm... "I'm naked and fearless... And my fear is naked." "life isn't worth living without the threat of death" "I got my plans in a ziploc bag, let's see how unproductive we can be" "nobody lives their lives fully except for bull fighters" My Trade List
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