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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25099924 - 03/29/18 03:44 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

I made some loot on amazon...sold at 1600, repurchased on the dip. We will see if I can keep my gains!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #25100104 - 03/29/18 04:59 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

You sly dog... I woke up a little on the late side today, saw the price down at $1370 when I checked the print from bed.  By the time I got a coffee and made it to my desk it had already moved considerably higher and I just didn't have it in me to chase it.  If the S&P breaks its 200 day and Trump keeps talkin' trash, I suspect we'll be able to snag some AMZN in the $1200-$1300 range.  Nevertheless, well done.  Keep in mind that the 50 day broke fairly decisively.  AMZN is a very well run company with huge ambitions, so it may very well pop back up toward the top of its range, but if you're in the green from buying the dip, I would keep it on a tight leash because continued market weakness will keep a lid on the stock and there seems to be plenty of supply overhead.  Don't let a good trade turn sour on ya, consider setting a stop on at least a part of your position wherever you entered because this market is pretty dicey.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25100173 - 03/29/18 05:27 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Sounds good. Will do! Thanks!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25108171 - 04/02/18 10:14 AM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Woooeeeeee, big time selloff and what looks to be a key break of the 200 day on the S&P.  This is not a market you want to be long, although I suspect we will probably setup for a little snapback here soon, but I believe it will be short lived and only suitable for the most nimble of traders.

Made a little scratch on some SPY puts intraday that I have since closed out, but will look to rebuild via SPY May $265 puts if the SPY recovers up to $260-ish which seems like a reasonable retracement from the current ~$257 level as that would be a retest of the S&P's 200 day from the underside (a stop could then be placed at today's SPY high of $263 or if you want to give it a longer leash and possibly use June puts, stop above the recent price cluster around $266).

My UVXY April $20 puts are not happy, down 50%, but fortunately it was only an initial tranche, I have a buy order in for a second tranche of higher strike $25 puts @ $3 which will trigger if UVXY spikes up to ~$25.  Buckle up, this market is gettin' sporty!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25109122 - 04/02/18 05:21 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Thanks for the "stop" recommendation on Amazon. Saved me some loot. Waiting for re-entry.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #25109159 - 04/02/18 05:40 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

It's ugly out there. Pretty happy to be about 20% in gold, but bought a few names more or less at the peak. BLK, NTR and ATVI.

I have some Jul MU calls that are down big, but i'll probably baghold them to see what happens.


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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: Bambi]
    #25109270 - 04/02/18 06:33 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Bambi, has it been 4 years? That is a long time indeed. Welcome back and take a look at the crypto threads

I laugh at the trade war with china, they can't win and should know it but seem not to. I suspect they are simply trying to save face at this point by hitting us with tariffs. Trump is crazy like a fox and knows the deficits have to be brought down. He is right about the crap china has pulled on us. The markets may be nervous about that and the renegotiating with nafta but its long overdue. The previous president was easily bought off, a few hundred thousand in payoffs did the job and if it costs usa billions, no matter. While I'm against many things he has done, economically trump seems to know his stuff

There will still be an economic meltdown in the future but it won't be as bad as it could have been.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: Stonehenge]
    #25109406 - 04/02/18 07:34 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Hey there Stonehenge, hope you've been well. You play the cryptos? I stayed away from them myself. I got burned bad with marijuana stocks on like 2013 or so. Therefore I just decided not to play with fire as I believe that cryptos are entirely a bubble at this point.

I pretty much don't want anything to do with the market. I still have my TGT calls where I'm down like 15%, but I have about 60 days to expiry. So in the event the market goes up, that position will so well. I want to open a short position ... But I'm not sure where. Been thinking PY, MU, or SQ. If we touch the bottom of the 200 dma tomorrow before noon, I might buy puts.

Everything is looking super sketchy, but at the same time, we've been here before in the past few years and things have been fine. Exciting (or scary) times


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Edited by Bambi (04/02/18 07:36 PM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25125494 - 04/09/18 11:00 AM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Market is up just a little bit.  I shut down my initial position on the April 20th UVXY $20 Puts for a loss, as even though the market has stopped falling, the VIX is remaining elevated and since expiration is now only two weeks out, I don't find the risk/reward attractive since the S&P is still basing around its 200 day moving average, and any break will cause volatility to skyrocket, making those April 20 UVXY puts more likely to expire worthless.

As the VIX is still elevated, options premium remains fairly high.  I see a short term range on the SPY between 257 and 267.  As today's relief rally brings us up nearer the top of this range, I am looking to sell more bear call credit spreads in efforts to capture the expensive options premium under the assumption that the market will likely continue to chop sideways in this range for the next week or two.

NFLX reports earnings on the 16th, so I am going to take a stab at a credit spread that expires at the end of this week, before the report hits, by selling the weekly April 13th $305 calls and buying the April 13th $307.50 calls.  I was able to get a fill at an $0.85 credit on this spread, indicating $85 per contract max profit with NFLX at or below $305 on Friday, $1.65 max loss with NFLX above $307.50.  Because these two strikes are close together, I should be able to get out of the trade for less than the max loss if it looks like it's going to go against me.  However, with NFLX having broken down below its 20 day and 50 day moving averages for the first time this year, currently trading just under $300, and the descending 20 day moving average at $304.50, I think this one has a high probability of working out.  Of course, NFLX has been a beast on earnings, so if there is an anticipatory rally, that could very well break the trade.

Two other bear call credit spreads I have on offer, but haven't yet received a fill on are as follows:

  • Sell to open SPY April 20 $269 call
  • Buy to open SPY APril 20 $273 call
  • Net credit: $1.50

  • Sell to open TSLA April 20 $335 call
  • Buy to open TSLA APril 20 $340 call
  • Net credit: $1


The SPY spread is predicated on the thesis that the $269 short call is above the current trading range and below the 20 and (presumably) the 50 day moving average at expiration.  The SPY will have to get to the top of its range however, at around $267 for this trade to be filled.

The TSLA spread is predicated on the thesis that its major breakdown won't soon allow it to hit new highs, and that both its 50 and 200 day moving averages will serve as resistance.  TSLA will have to get up to $315 for this trade to be filled, presently trading at $300 with an intraday high of $310.  Going to watch this one closely and may just buy some straight puts for an intraday trade if it breaks below short term support at $295.  It seems likely with the deep dive it took two weeks ago, that it will have to do some backing and filling between $275-$300 before making any attempt at breaking out to new highs.  Earnings are still over a month out, and options on this are very expensive so it may even be a candidate for an iron condor; writing bear call credit spreads when its at the top of its trading range, and then selling bull put credit spreads when its near the bottom.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25125902 - 04/09/18 01:57 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Shut down the NFLX spread capturing 50% of the max premium. Couldn't see the sense in staying exposed for four more days in attempts to capture the remaining half.

Also cheated a bit on the TSLA and SPY trades since they never filled... As SPY started to struggle at $265, I bought (small size) April $265 puts with a tight stop at the intraday high, to ride them into the close for a tidy profit. Also bagged a weekly April 13 $300 put on TSLA in addition to a weekly bear call spread via April 13 $295/$300 calls. Both of those trades were shut down near the close for quick profits.

Considered selling a bull put spread on the SPY at the close, what with it resting here near its 200 day moving average and toward the bottom of its short term range, however the aggressive selling into the close brought pause and I opted not to pull the trigger.

It was a good day, no need to complicate. :smile:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25132723 - 04/12/18 09:00 AM (5 years, 9 months ago)

We finally going to punch out of this range to the upside?

My long dated calls are finally in the green.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #25132854 - 04/12/18 10:17 AM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Anything is possible.  But I see the SPY stalling out between $270-$275 and making another trip down to its 200 day.  Tax cuts, positive employment numbers and expectations of good corporate earnings are already broadly known factors that have been priced into the market.  While I concede that earnings could surprise further to the upside, giving an additional thrust higher, I can't reason what other catalysts there are to sustain moves to new highs anytime soon, because so much good news has been baked into the cake while a lot of significant uncertainties abound.  Between the Mueller investigation into Trump's ties with Russia, GOP leadership looking to lose ground during this election cycle, Syria heating up, the potential for trade issues with China to escalate, the potential of inflationary pressures leading to a perception of increased Fed rate hikes... there are quite a few tenuous issues that in my view could break through the market's 200 day to the downside.

On that note, I am glad I ran with the quick profits on the bear call spreads and puts I traded Monday.  A reminder that easy money is often easily lost money, and profits should be protected, especially when the market dynamics change to a landscape of increased volatility as we are seeing now.  Daily moves in the major averages of more than 1% in 2017 were unheard of, this year we've had more than 20.  We are in price discovery mode, and the easy march higher is what is seen through the rearview, while the view ahead is obscured by a cracked and dirty windshield.  Respect the difference and respect your dough.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25164042 - 04/25/18 08:31 AM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Here we are with another visit to the S&P's 200 day, as suspected.  10-year US treasury rates are above 3%, which has been a psychological "line in the sand", since rising rates are generally a severe headwind for equities as the increased cost of financing for debt-intensive companies cuts into their profitability.

That being said, the S&P has been down for four days in a row now, and I would suspect some measure of pause now that we are back at the 200 day moving average.  Because of this anticipation, and in light of blockbuster earnings from Boeing (BA) this morning including raised forward guidance, I am buying a handful of BA May 18th $335 calls with a stop below $332.  BA has traded sideways since their last earnings report, and today's report was really very good.  Aggregate market weakness seems to have kept the reaction muted, although the stock is presently up over 2% on an otherwise down day, so buyers are present.  I am one of them.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25164566 - 04/25/18 01:38 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Had a pretty nice rip in BA off those May $335 calls.  Closed out the position here near the close for +40%.  It's a high volume bullish move on the day, but it wasn't able to break through the top of its short term range, so I'd rather not risk giving away the quick profits.  Smoke 'em if ya got 'em...


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25166817 - 04/26/18 01:12 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Taking a stab at a longer term view for Hawaiian Airlines (HA), via July $35 calls purchased this morning at $6.80 on the retest of yesterday's earnings breakout above the 200 day moving average.  This one has been basing all year, and they reported their best first quarter in their history.  On a weekly chart, it looks like it could have legs to get back up to test its all time highs above $60.  A move above $43.50 will build confidence in the longer term trend turning higher.

Repurchased a very small long position in Boeing (BA) via May $340 calls.  Stock is pushing up above its flat 50 day moving average for the first time since breaking down over a month ago.  Earnings out yesterday were very positive, had a great trade then, and since the stock is stabilizing at the top of its trading range without giving much back today, I'm expecting we could see a quick move up to ~$355 as long as the overall market cooperates.  Granted, counting on the market's cooperation in this environment is a bit of a tall order, hence why this position is being kept very small including a stock based stop below $339.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25183888 - 05/04/18 11:28 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Both of my directional trades on BA and HA were shut down.  BA was a wash as I saw it struggling before it broke, so got out before any damage could be done.  But I got clipped pretty good on HA due to the wide spreads on the fairly illiquid contracts and a downgrade that saw the underlying stock take a ~15% drop before I took action.  My biggest flaw on the HA trade was that I did not have a stop loss on the position, which resulted in me taking a 50% haircut on the options.

:foreheadslap:


In general, the market continues to chop around its 200 day moving average, showing no real signs of direction, although notably lower highs on each rally attempt thus far.  There are a few bright spots with some former leaders experiencing a revival; see AAPL hitting new highs today and CMG holding its massive earnings gap higher.  BABA also reported strong results overnight, and the stock appears to be doing a "touch and go" or "soft landing" bounce off of its  200 day moving average after having traded sideways in a fairly choppy wide channel for the past nine months.  Given the massive volume today and the somewhat tight bollinger bands (relative to the history of this particular stock), I think the 200 day is going to hold, and I think that today's intraday low is going to hold given the massive volume that has pushed price up some 3%.  Because the market in general is pretty dicey, I'm going to go back to selling premium through "out of the money" options instead of taking an outright directional trade:

  • Sold to Open BABA May 25th $180 puts
  • Bought to Open BABA May 25th $177.50 puts

    Net credit: $0.55 per spread


This trade is predicated on the thesis that BABA will remain above $180 over the next three weeks, and because the contract strike prices are relatively close, if the trade moves against me, I should be able to get out without suffering too big of a loss, as the $177.50 puts will begin to gain in value even as the $180 puts are losing slightly more value.  I sold a boatload of these spreads, so if we see continued upside momentum in BABA (or even just sideways action for a couple of weeks) and the spread bleeds out at least 50% of its value before expiration, I will probably close the position prematurely rather than risk a major reversal.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25189427 - 05/07/18 11:00 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

AAPL - Selling premium for a 20% yield in 11 days.

  • Sold to Open AAPL May 18 $190 calls
  • Bought to Open AAPL May 18 $192.50 calls

    Net Credit: $0.50 per spread ($2.00 per spread max loss)


Thesis: Seeing AAPL having moved $26 (+16%) in six trading days, I believe that the rubber band is adequately stretched in favor of some retracement, even if only a minimal amount. While puts would be more profitable on any meaningful retracement, I continue to be a bit weary of leveraged directional trades (as each time I've been tempted into one, I've been losing money lately ;-). Thus, selling an out of the money call spread to capture some premium as the time value bleeds out is my preference in this environment.

Update: The $180/$177.50 Bull Put Credit Spread I wrote on BABA last Friday has already captured 50% of its net 22% yield. Given today's upside continuation and expanding bollinger bands, I think this spread is going to be fairly safe and will let it continue to bleed out additional value before shutting it down.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25195439 - 05/10/18 12:02 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

The AAPL bear call credit spread I sold in the prior post is moving against me, although not in a major way.  With over a week to go until expiration, and the stock continuing to extend higher, I am focused on the decreasing volume over the rally and expect that we will still see a reversion to the mean with a little backing and filling over the coming week.  While it is never comfortable to see a trade go against you, I kept this particular position smaller than, say the BABA bull put spread I also have active that looks to expire for max profit, because the AAPL trade is a counter-trend trade, which is necessarily riskier than the BABA trade which works alongside the prevailing short term trend.

Because the AAPL spread position was initiated at half size, I am going to add another quarter today for $0.95 credit per spread (nearly double the original credit).  If we continue to rocket higher tomorrow and get closer to $200, I will probably sell one last quarter size tranche using higher strikes with the intention to capture another ~$1/spread with a lower risk profile.  That's as deep as I will be comfortable taking the trade, so after that it will be up to market forces to decide whether the trade ultimately turns profitable or I must exist at a loss.

Note that I am also attempting to sell a bear call credit spread on BABA today, selling the May 18 $200's and buying the May 18 $202.50's for a $0.70 credit.  So far I haven't gotten a fill, but if I do, it will create what is known as an "Iron Condor", which is a pair of out of the money credit spreads, one using puts on the low end of the range and the other using calls on the high end.  The idea is for price to stay between the two spreads such that they both expire worthless.  I think $200 will serve as resistance for BABA, as I noted when I first put on the trade.  Now let's see if I can get that fill... starting at quarter size only, out of respect for the market's recent strength in addition to the existing risk I have on the table from my AAPL bear call credit spread.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25197693 - 05/11/18 02:11 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Added a bear call credit spread on NVDA today after it reported blowout earnings that didn't propel the stock to new highs, even on a slightly up day in the market.  That's a telling sign that the stock was priced to perfection and unlikely to bring out new buyers in the near term, particularly given that the CEO noted during the conference call that he expects crypto-related GPU sales going forward to decline to one-third of what they have been, and since they have been largely responsible for the massive outperformance of the stock over the past year, that's a pretty significant statement.

  • Sold to open NVDA May 18 $260 calls
  • Bought to open NVDA May 18 $262.50 calls

    Net Credit: $1 per spread (max loss $1.50 per spread)


AAPL traded down a bit today, bringing my bear call spread back into the profit zone.  The NVDA bear call spread has also already captured about 30% of its net 40% yield if the contracts expire worthless by next Friday.  And the BABA bull put spread that still has two weeks to go has still appears quite safe and has captured about 75% of its maximum 22% yield.  I should probably have just shut down the BABA spread today since two weeks is a lot of time to leave stay exposed only to capture the last 25% of the credit.

We'll see next week may bring...


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25225052 - 05/24/18 08:48 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Equity markets have been fairly resilient here, with the S&P authoritatively holding its 200 day moving average and the small caps (Russell 2000) in particular setting new all time highs last week.  While there is still likely some sideways chop to chew through before we can build a real launchpad for higher prices, the market is appearing healthier at the margin with each passing day, particularly now that it is also consolidating above its 20 and 50 day moving averages.  This constructive action could of course run into headwinds if the Fed raises rates more aggressively than anticipated, or if some geopolitical event shakes things up (Trump's declination to meet with North Korea's leader in Singapore next month was a bit of a setback this morning, although in my view it was more the embarrassing tone Trump took in the letter he wrote than the actual cancellation of the summit that gave me the heebee jeebees).

Anywho, we must trade the market that's in front of us, and for now, it's a stock picker's market since the major averages (with the exception of the small caps) are not collectively levitating, and are not continuing to break down.  Selling out of the money credit spreads as I did over the past two weeks has also proven to be a profitable strategy, but stocks need to be at the extremes of their trading ranges for that to work out, and right now we're just kind of drifting.

What's not drifting, is NFLX, with its bonafide breakout to new highs yesterday.  I started a position via June 20th $330 calls yesterday, and tripled its size this morning on its continued march higher.  I will very likely have over half of the position closed out before the end of the day, but I will continue to hold some for a while longer, as the stock had been traversing sideways for months, allowing its 50 day moving average to catch up and the bollinger bands to begin squeezing.  This type of cyclical volatility burst at a key moving average is typically a powerful move, and I would not be surprised to see NFLX at $400 before long.


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