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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: Citizen X]
    #24857248 - 12/20/17 08:03 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Its all good Citizen X, if you'd like to talk about your experience learning/trading stocks here, you are more than welcome.  You can of course start your own topic as well if you feel that you would rather focus the discussion along a more specific line than the general commentary that transpires here.

With that being said, I think practicing with a simulated "paper trade" portfolio is a great way to learn about how the market works, and also teach yourself about how to enter and exit trades in efforts to develop your own personal strategy and discipline.  Of course, having your own real money on the line can convolute things because it adds more weight to the emotional element of trading, which is truly the hardest thing to manage as a trader... but paper trading is still a great way to get started!

As I haven't really posted much in here (to be honest, because I've focused most of my trading energy on the crypto markets this year), I would like to say that the stock market has been relentlessly strong as even though the Fed continues to tick up the Funds rate at a snail's pace, interest rates are still near all time lows so there is little opportunity for money to yield a decent return in fixed income outside of the stock market.  Thus, money continues to be shoveled into it, propelling valuations ever higher.

And valuations indeed appear to be high, with the S&P 500 sporting a PE ratio around 25 while the average post-WW2 era average PE falls around 17ish.  The republican tax reform bill that just passed the Senate this morning and is all but assured to be adopted by the House this week is an important catalyst that could keep the party alive for a while longer, even as I personally feel the runup over the past year was the market's attempt at pricing in this type of reform, which could mean that there isn't much room overhead until corporations can prove that the tax relief is actually accelerating economic growth.  I just can't get that excited about a market that appears to be priced to perfection.  If the tax bill falls apart (which seems unlikely but could happen), if growth stalls (an important part of what is supposed to offset the loss of revenue from the tax bill), if the Fed moves rates higher too aggressively in 2018, if there is a problem with North Korea, China, Russia, Iran... there are a few things out there that could derail this freight train.

Yet, that hasn't happened, and so it has been right to stay long.  Manage risk by maintaining stop losses and let what's been working, keep working for you until you get bucked off.  I still feel like we are long overdue for a more meaningful correction, and would be hard pressed to expect similar stock performance next year... but crazier things have happened.


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InvisibleCitizen X
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24857431 - 12/20/17 10:07 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Thanks GK. Much more homework is needed and with the level of support here I remain committed and confident about the future.

So much to learn


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OfflinemndfreezeMDiscordReddit
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: Citizen X]
    #24857626 - 12/20/17 11:38 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

There was this cool website years ago that I can't remember the damn name of for the life of me, but it was designed to be like a stock trading social network, and had up to date software and everything like you would see on a major stock website right, but you it was all virtual fake currency.  So when you made your initial account you were given like 10k or 50k or something, I can't remember, it was so long ago, but you then invested it like you would with real money on a real stock trading website and since it used real market data on whatever refresh rate a real investment firms website would use, it was basically the same exact thing with the same kinds of tools and everything, but no risk.

Really useful to get a grasp on how trading works, especially something like day trading.  I'll try to search my email and see if I can find some old archived email with the name of it.


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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: mndfreeze]
    #24857636 - 12/20/17 11:42 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

ahhh hah! I t was called updown.com.  Looks like they closed that down and replaced it with sharewise. No idea if sharewise is worth a damn,  but updown was really nice to learn on.


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Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus!

quote]Urb said:
I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]


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Offlinemm.
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: mndfreeze]
    #24893211 - 01/06/18 12:15 AM (6 years, 24 days ago)

A nice couple of days for those not sidetracked by cryptobollocks!



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InvisibleSirShroomsAlott
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: mm.]
    #24893316 - 01/06/18 02:25 AM (6 years, 24 days ago)

It was quite an amazing couple of days for those who where sidetracked by it lol the market rose hundreds of billions within those couple of days


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
    #24899061 - 01/08/18 05:27 PM (6 years, 21 days ago)

Made an absolute killing last week :aweoverdose:  Dry bulk shipping appears to be coming back into vogue.... picked up NMM and SBLK.  Tech is on a tear as well.... welcome to 2018


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24901183 - 01/09/18 04:28 PM (6 years, 20 days ago)

I used to trade SBLK!

I will keep that on my radar.

Made some money on the Buckle (BKE) and am holding PETX currently!


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #24922010 - 01/17/18 09:44 PM (6 years, 12 days ago)

I've been watching PETX for several months now.  Seems like a highly competitive space with incompetent management.  After that dilution that wasn't about 2 months ago, I stopped watching it.  Interesting products but they continually fail to execute.  AMAT is gaining some good momentum after an upgrade and some favorable pieces.  I think chips will outperform 2018 massively.  Seems like easy money to me.  Good entry on Osisko mining around now.... they announced more ridiculous drill results.  Another KL in the making imo.  Opened a position in Tencent.  Jd.com is massively outperforming with baba lagging considerably.  Looks like BABA is way too crowded... may dump we'll see.  Continue to be long FB despite the shakeup drama.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24922029 - 01/17/18 09:50 PM (6 years, 12 days ago)

That article that came out today from JP Morgan seemed very bullish on Navios Maritime:

Quote:

Diana Shipping (DSX -5.7%) and Navios Maritime Partners (NMM -2.6%) are lower after J.P. Morgan downgrades shares of both dry bulk carriers to Neutral from Overweight ahead of a cycle peak the firm expects later this year or in early 2019.

The firm says DSX's low risk profile limits upside potential vs. more spot-oriented companies, and it is concerned about the company's economic exposure to container shipping through its loans to Diana Containerships (DCIX +3%).

JPM says its NMM downgrade is based primarily on valuation, as the company enjoys positives such as low leverage, relatively higher charter coverage, low cost basis and diversification into the containership sector through long-term charters.




As SBLK has many capesize ships, I think they will really benefit from the rally in bulk shipment day rates, along with the same positive tailwinds as NMM as described above.  We shall see.  Dry bulk has been literally left for dead.  Where to go but up I feel.  As long as these companies survive, huge gains are assured.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Offlineshr
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24935809 - 01/23/18 10:18 AM (6 years, 6 days ago)

Geo, I'm interested in your opinion on the future of the US economy. I come from crypto and have slowly made my way into precious metals, so the information I've exposed myself to has been very "fiat is dying"esque. I don't have a strong enough understanding of markets to come to my own conclusions on this....so I have to ask others


Things like high P/E ratios, a history making bottomed out VIX, bond rates increasing, massive consumer debt, record high printing of FIAT, the US dollar losing its grasp on the global economy (china trying to make petroyuan). These are some things off the top of my head that people are concerned about. Do these things, or other things, bother you?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: shr] * 2
    #24935853 - 01/23/18 10:39 AM (6 years, 6 days ago)

Hey there shr,

While I understand and ultimately share in a belief that our general (and I mean this in a global sense) economy is built upon mountains of debt and financial manipulation that has created a tall house of cards, I also find it folly to underestimate the longevity with which our political and business elite can continue to "kick the can down the road", creating an ever more looming and disastrous future problem.  I have little doubt that there will come a day of reckoning, similar if not greater in scope to what we witnessed in the 2008 unwind, but I have no edge in determining whether that day of reckoning will come next month, next year or decades from now.  What I do know, is that the powers that be have a unified interest in preserving the current state of affairs, as the wealth benefit they experience is practically unparalleled.  Of course, there are several scenarios that could lead to a rapid shift in tolerance from the working class masses (i.e. the bulk of the global populous), but this game is simply too fruitful for those who hold power, for the bulk of those stakeholders not to do everything they can to perpetuate it.

Money seeks yield, and with massive debt loads leading to seemingly ever-depressed interest/fixed income rates, free capital finds its way into risk assets in hopes of appreciation that will eclipse inflation.  It is this cycle that continues to drive assets such as the stock market (as well as cryptocurrencies) higher.  While the historic metrics of the low low VIX and high P/E ratios undoubtedly warrant caution, the lack of available alternative options for capital flow to yield a decent return, in conjunction with tax reform that will undoubtedly benefit domestic corporations (and thus the equity shares of said corporations), I would suspect that the US stock market may not see the crash so many of us have been anticipating as we continue to climb into what by conventional wisdom feels like nosebleed territory.

So to succinctly respond to your inquiry... Yes, these things bother me on a fundamental level with respect to what is generally good for humanity and the stable success of our species over a longer term time horizon.  But when it comes to capital allocation, "the trend is your friend", and so long as you employ adequate risk management techniques, one has little choice but to ride the bull until they are bucked off.


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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24936056 - 01/23/18 12:00 PM (6 years, 6 days ago)

Very well said Geo, I would even go one step further and say that the global financial markets essentially have been nationalized.

https://thefelderreport.com/2018/01/16/according-to-these-3-measures-the-stock-market-is-now-literally-off-the-charts/

In my opinion, it's worthless to look back at market history and attempt to compare it to the current situation.  Why would we want to compare free markets with nationalized markets?  It's pointless.

We also have a situation today where the people in power have complete control over fiscal AND monetary policy, that's a dangerous combination.

With this all being said, the central bankers can pull the plug on this whole thing any day they want for whatever reason they need at the moment.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24944037 - 01/26/18 04:20 PM (6 years, 3 days ago)

I see no reason why you would not be 100% invested in today's market.  It literally just goes up.  If they pulled the plug, the markets would complete collapse.  With so much reliance on 401k, that is just not viable. 

Jd.com and Alibaba both hit all time highs today.  China has been on FIRE!!!!  I would be truly shocked if JD.com doesn't hit $100 in the next 2 years.... easy double at least.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24944211 - 01/26/18 05:25 PM (6 years, 3 days ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
I see no reason why you would not be 100% invested in today's market.  It literally just goes up.  If they pulled the plug, the markets would complete collapse.  With so much reliance on 401k, that is just not viable. 

Jd.com and Alibaba both hit all time highs today.  China has been on FIRE!!!!  I would be truly shocked if JD.com doesn't hit $100 in the next 2 years.... easy double at least.




And cash levels are at all-time lows, people are going all in for sure.  Also, the put to call ratio is at unreal levels, another bad sign.

People must remember, they haven't made a gain until they sell, retail investors usually never hit the sell button.


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24957082 - 01/31/18 02:00 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-31/greenspan-warns-we-have-stock-market-bubble

"There are two bubbles. We have a stock market bubble and a bond market bubble."

I said this many years ago, but when Greenspan talks investors take notice.


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24962594 - 02/02/18 06:54 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

So what now? I haven't followed the whole market recently, but my well diversified IRA took a bit of a hit this week.

I was able to get a bit more AMZN before the bump. Praise!!!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #24969110 - 02/05/18 02:36 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Looks like the wind is definitely coming out of the sails, with the market posting its worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, S&P down over 6% on the day (with continued losses after hours).  I've had nothing in any of my trading accounts for months now, but I'm starting to get interested in perhaps swing trading the SVXY for a retracement to the upside.  Not very interested in putting on longer term positions here though, this is a meaningful break.  Kinda sad I wasn't watching my screens today as the action in UVXY was a thing of beauty.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #24995379 - 02/15/18 12:14 AM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Ehhh, I'm buying the dips in energy.  Picked up CDEV today at 18.56.  Looking to get in on RIG at $8 and pick up some more RDC.  Just need some more loot :lolsy:  Pretty wild swings.  While I was on vacation, I lost like 5 grand ahaha.  Good thing it was just on paper :pipesmoke:  I'm almost back to square though now.  If not for my vacation, I woulda went on a spending spree.... a lot of stuff took a 10-20% hit in that correction.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #24998703 - 02/16/18 12:19 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Starting to leg back into a little stock market swing trading.  Bagged a nice double on some April $150 AAPL calls I purchased during the recent swoon, sold 'em this morning to lock in the profit as the bounce has been furious.  Also picked up some UVXY common and March $15 calls yesterday and today that have been working so far, I would expect that they may continue perking up into the close as people take risk off ahead of the long weekend since this week was gangbusters to the upside.  Don't forget that Monday is a holiday and the bourses are closed.


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