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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24662394 - 09/26/17 07:10 PM (6 years, 4 months ago)

Geokills, any idea why the short interest on BABA is so high?  Enormous cash horde, skyrocketing earnings... the company is fucking killing it.  1/4 the P/E of Amazon with about 15x the short interest.  It has the China wildcard.  Other than that, just don't see it....


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24662766 - 09/26/17 09:27 PM (6 years, 4 months ago)

While I agree that the fundamental analysis for BABA is positive, the stock has run a long way and the technical picture is not so rosey.

I see that short interest on BABA at 134.58M, which is more or less the same as last month's reading.  With a float of 1.58B shares, that's about 8.5% sold short.  With around 19M shares traded daily, that equates to about 7 days of average trading volume for all shorts to cover.  I would use AMZN as a viable comparison, which has 4.72M shares sold short on a float of 400.09M, a 11.8% short interest.  Although the short interest is actually higher with AMZN, it's 3.2M shares of average daily volume would allow all shorts to cover in less than two days.

Thus, while there is definitely some potential for a short squeeze in BABA, I think it's somewhat unlikely, given that short interest hasn't spiked and the stock has printed a double top over the last month.  In fact, the break of the stock's 20 day moving average yesterday on very high volume with additional high volume selling today is concerning.  While the 50 day moving average is right below the current price and may serve as support, it really hasn't been relevant all year; the stock has never tagged it since first breaking through in January.  So, strictly from a technical perspective, I think BABA is likely to test $150-$160 before it tests the highs at $180.  If it does break through $180, I suspect that would be the catalyst for a potential short squeeze, provided short interest remains as elevated as it is presently.  The earnings gap on 8/17 is just begging to be filled though.  I would wait for more selling and subsequent signs of buyers before taking a long position in BABA.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24665438 - 09/27/17 08:26 PM (6 years, 4 months ago)

A very thought provoking analysis thank you!


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24671041 - 09/29/17 06:36 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Pretty good week overall.  CELG took out $145 finally on a weekly close under volume which makes the 6th weekly close in the black.  What's not to like there, technicals look real solid.  HOFT continues to look very solid as well in its breakout.  Closed my position in AAPL.  I'll take another look at $144.  AAPL is lagging the other techs majorly and Cook's strange positioning with the iphone 8 no one wants, a lackluster iphone x, and a less than spectacular watch does not get me excited.  Stoked to see FB recover above the 20 day with BABA close to the same.  PFBC just broke out of a prolonged bull flag under volume so started a position.  TXT consolidating around $53... very good stuff.  Really, the only laggards were AAXN which continues to drift around the $22-23 zone and HOME which sits on 22.50.  Today had a brief stint at 23.00 which was intriguing.  Q3 will tell the story there I suppose.  Woohoo!


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24671628 - 09/29/17 10:30 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

FB had an extremely impressive rebound, did not expect to see that.  AAPL is broken for now; a long term position is fine, but I don't like it for trades here, keeping an eye out for a test of the 200 day as a level to start buying.  CELG is indeed looking great, I picked some up this week via the June $140 call.

Also doing a counter trend trade here, picking up some November $150 puts on the IWM small cap index. Definitely trend averse, but the IWM has been on fire and unless tax reform shows signs of quick easy passage, I have to believe a near term downside retracement is in order.  Keeping the position small just in case, and have a GTC order in to double down if it tags the $150 strike.  At that point, going to keep a very tight leash on things.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24675780 - 10/01/17 03:28 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
FB had an extremely impressive rebound, did not expect to see that.  AAPL is broken for now; a long term position is fine, but I don't like it for trades here, keeping an eye out for a test of the 200 day as a level to start buying.  CELG is indeed looking great, I picked some up this week via the June $140 call.




I was somewhat surprised on FB.  The selloff in large techs seems symptomatic of AAPL loosing ground creating buy the dip opportunities in the other techs. 

Quote:

Also doing a counter trend trade here, picking up some November $150 puts on the IWM small cap index. Definitely trend averse, but the IWM has been on fire and unless tax reform shows signs of quick easy passage, I have to believe a near term downside retracement is in order.  Keeping the position small just in case, and have a GTC order in to double down if it tags the $150 strike.  At that point, going to keep a very tight leash on things.




We'll see.... I think we will see strong markets into the end of the year.  Technicals looking solid across the board and I think that tax reform will ultimately pass.  Did you sell the GDX 22 calls?  I could see gold hitting $1260 this week.  Once the trend reverses, I'm going to put some dry powder into KL which has been nicely consolidating.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24676425 - 10/01/17 08:24 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Yeah, the GDX calls were ditched last week after it completely retraced the nice bullish move it made when I last commented positively on it (which I believe was in the wake of some North Korea related saber rattling).  You could very well be right about persistently strong markets, surely my IWM puts are sticking my neck out.  More of a swing trade, not in any appreciable size, even if my double-down order gets filled @ $150 I would have room to comfortably double the size again on a subsequent break of support to press the bet upon some measure of confirmation that it is beginning to work.  Not entirely confident it will though, which is why I'm trading small.  I just haven't been able to get in sync with the market this past month very well.  Been traveling a bit and having a six month old (my first) under my care is screwing with my focus :tongue2:


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24684581 - 10/04/17 08:26 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

BABA came back around to resistance at 180.  MACD/RSI both look solid.... let's see what happens........


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24690570 - 10/07/17 10:13 AM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Nice week over all.  HOFT cleared $50 as expected but then dropped back a little back to 48.50.  I expect it to be licking $50 through the next week.  BAC in breakout.  Looks like my call of $28 by year end may be in the cards.  Premier bank dropped back somewhat which was disappointing but is holding the breakout strong.  I expect it to move beyond the $60.50 buy price through the next week.  I took the opportunity to buy the dip on CELG and picked up more shares at $142.  That analyst is full of shit.  KL is ON FIRE!!!!  Up 6% under heavy volume to all time highs to close just under $14 on Friday.  I may pick up some shares next week as gold begins to change momentum upwards. 

Might pick up some shares of Osisko mining as well for a long term hold.  Not every day you see grades of 600 g/t.  The property seems to be similar to Kirkland Lake's properties as a best in breed junior miner.  AAXN is making some strange moves as well, creeping up day by day.  Sitting at a 10.8% return in my 5 months at it, crushing the S&P500's 6.3% return in the same period--pretty amazing given the large inflow of capital through the same period via increasing funds into my portfolio about 7x my meager starting position and some pretty big blunders. 

:trippinbawelz:


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24724175 - 10/20/17 10:16 AM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Blow off top?  I believe so, I called it some months ago in this thread.

At this point the stock market can not stop going up EVERYDAY without any volatility.

Nothing is different this time, it will end up in tears.


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24733847 - 10/24/17 11:40 AM (6 years, 3 months ago)

And the stupidity continues, smart money selling to dumb money near the top.  Valuations don't even matter, just have to get in and buy the index without any thought behind it.

Overall this stock market is priced higher than even 1999, the only market that compares is 1929.

How much is power is left in this blow off top?  Maybe another 5% to 10%, but what happens after the massive spike higher?  It's going to be bloody, buying put options is going to be a field day.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24798937 - 11/21/17 10:23 PM (6 years, 2 months ago)

What, maybe a 5% drop possible? The fed will backstop the market by dropping rates -- everyone knows it, especially with Yellen gone.  Might as well put some dough in the roulette wheel. 

BABA clears $190, FB clears $180, MU, AAPL all roaring.  Big money seems to be rotating back into tech after sleeping for the past few months.  I have pruned some retail and expanded into tech with some additional dough into Osisko Mining, Marathon Gold, Pretium--good buys on the dip with price action similar to kirkland lake in early 2017.  I'm going to hold cash going forward until we get direction on tax reform with buys in JD, MU, AMAT if price still looks good.  MU is an amazing deal still at like 5.5 forward p/e... hard to beat that in today's market...


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (11/21/17 10:31 PM)


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24799720 - 11/22/17 10:40 AM (6 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
What, maybe a 5% drop possible? The fed will backstop the market by dropping rates -- everyone knows it, especially with Yellen gone.  Might as well put some dough in the roulette wheel. 

BABA clears $190, FB clears $180, MU, AAPL all roaring.  Big money seems to be rotating back into tech after sleeping for the past few months.  I have pruned some retail and expanded into tech with some additional dough into Osisko Mining, Marathon Gold, Pretium--good buys on the dip with price action similar to kirkland lake in early 2017.  I'm going to hold cash going forward until we get direction on tax reform with buys in JD, MU, AMAT if price still looks good.  MU is an amazing deal still at like 5.5 forward p/e... hard to beat that in today's market...




"What, maybe a 5% drop possible?"

I was originally guessing this market had another 5-10% on the upside before the final top, but it really could be 20-25% or more of a spike higher before it's all said and done.

This is the most out of control stock market in human history, valuations don't matter at all, nothing matters until it matters one day.

The fact of the matter is the policymakers know we can't even handle a 5-7% drop in the stock market without it fucking up everything economically around the world.

We are now in a very dangerous situation but the complacency is off the charts, people in the market believe central banks will protect them regardless of the future circumstances, that's why they don't care about buying stocks that don't make any sense to own at these levels.

If central banks bidding up assets prices were the path to economic prosperity, humans would have figured that out a long time ago, it works until it stops working.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24815203 - 11/29/17 07:26 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Definitely.  Due to the stratospheric national debt -- more to come with tax "reform" -- the Fed simply cannot raise interest rates meaningfully.  Everyone knows it, especially with Yellen gone.  Inflation is starting to bubble back.  The dollar is going to get leveled in the coming years.  Oil is starting to creep up as well.  We are moving into the endgame.  I am overweight gold and tech for the cataclysm.


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24815761 - 11/30/17 01:07 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Blow off top?  I believe so, I called it some months ago in this thread.

At this point the stock market can not stop going up EVERYDAY without any volatility.

Nothing is different this time, it will end up in tears.





Ive been hearing this for longer than I can remember now. The tears simply arent coming, not anytime soon. You think Trump wants that on his record? Wait another 4-8 years.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: ManianFH]
    #24816397 - 11/30/17 09:27 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

mick said:
Quote:

qman said:
Blow off top?  I believe so, I called it some months ago in this thread.

At this point the stock market can not stop going up EVERYDAY without any volatility.

Nothing is different this time, it will end up in tears.





Ive been hearing this for longer than I can remember now. The tears simply arent coming, not anytime soon. You think Trump wants that on his record? Wait another 4-8 years.




Mick, just look at market history, this can't last forever. It feels like it might last forever, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.

There's nothing wrong with riding this wave higher and speculating on this stock market, but this isn't a buy and hold market. Most retail investors are buy and hold, they have no clue what is really taking place in this market.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24816544 - 11/30/17 10:49 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

I was being half facetious writing that. It has seemed to me forever that the markets are not aligned with reality. But at the same time my bets that it would falter have all but withered in the shadows.

How would you position yourself at this moment?


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: ManianFH]
    #24816586 - 11/30/17 11:14 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

mick said:
I was being half facetious writing that. It has seemed to me forever that the markets are not aligned with reality. But at the same time my bets that it would falter have all but withered in the shadows.

How would you position yourself at this moment?




That's a tough one for sure, after today's rally I'll just watch and wait.

This is historical stuff taking place, there's plenty of opportunities that make more sense down the road is my play.


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24817548 - 11/30/17 06:47 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Yeah, I am not buying anything new right now.

I did buy buckle about two months ago and have been pleased. They are a solid company and pay strong dividends. I sold a position the other day, and may buy back at 18ish.

holding my index funds, but not putting new money to work.


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InvisibleCitizen X
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #24857080 - 12/20/17 05:48 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

This doesn't seem to be directed at beginners anymore. I want to join in but I've just starting reading my first book on day trading, also I think this is going onto swing trading?

So if I want to talk about my simulator work or the "basics" is that cool to do here?

I'm focused on day trading only, and haven't and won't place any real money down until I have a firm grasp on trading.

I'm treating this as a new buisness startup. Up at 7:00 am shower, coffee, research and then pick my top stock for the day.

Use the simulator and use that resource to track what I'm doing. Liquidate my holdings by the end of the day; then read and do homework.

Any input would be appreciated.


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