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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24392275 - 06/09/17 08:55 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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QQQ down -2.5% today, but that's not the main issue here, the volume was just massive- over 4 times the average volume and the highest in over 2 years.
To make matters even worse, it completely decoupled from the general markets (Dow and SP500).
Was today the beginning of the bursting or just another head fake only to see higher highs? Historically we see these types of developments in the Fall, but we're in such strange territory now I really don't think it even matters.
Next week shall be interesting.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: qman]
#24406307 - 06/14/17 07:55 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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The party can only go on for so long. The Fed raising rates in a slowing economy and citing the "positive" job numbers has disaster written all over it. We will see QE4. How could we not? Ultimately, gold will push through 1300. Just a matter of time IMO.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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amp244
Sporocarp Stretching


Registered: 08/05/08
Posts: 1,336
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Just scooped up some CAAS @ $4.80. I used etrade's stock screener to find micro and small cap companies with positive earnings growth and low p/e ratio. Then I filtered the results looking for low price to book ratios. I found a company that, although having competitors with the potential to displace them, can pay all its creditors and liabilities and still have a tangible asset value exceeding its total equity. It's a negative goodwill situation, if they went out of business today I'd probably realize a gain (depending on the asset liquidity).
They have recently received a buyout offer from a chairman to acquire all shares he doesn't own for $5.45 a share. If the offer is accepted, I get the slight appreciation. If the offer is rejected, I imagine the stock price would jump up on its own.
Finally, checking their financials, they take a conservative approach to accounting. There is no financial legerdemain going on. Its that bargain purchase I was looking for, and in the wake of the buyout proposal, there is a potential for short term appreciation.
I'm new to stock trading, and I really don't want to play too much of an active role in it, but I feel like I could learn a lot from you seasoned traders. I'll be following this thread and taking in as much info as I can. This is the first Chinese company I have invested in so I'm just getting my feet wet, but I'm excited.
If anyone has any experiences with these buyout situations and can lend some foresight, or has any opinions on Chinese stocks in general, I'd love to see what you think.
-------------------- How to Convert a Normal 24-hour Light Timer into a Short Cycle Repeating Timer "Monopoly, besides, is a great enemy to good management, which can never be universally established but in consequence of that free and universal competition which forces everybody to have recourse in it for the sake of self-defense." -Adam Smith
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: amp244] 1
#24412562 - 06/17/17 12:37 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Chinese stocks that are relatively unknown seem to get a discount for being Chinese. From what I have read, the security laws in China are looser allowing for some creative accounting. Just look at Kingold Jewlery. Amazing numbers on paper, stock isn't worth shit. With such a wide spread between buyout and share price, seems that the market is thinking that the deal won't go through. My guess is should the deal not go through, the price would fall fairly considerably. I'll take a closer look at this one. Thanks for the post.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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katsung47
Stranger
Registered: 01/25/14
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Ron Paul warns people a collapse of stock market only months away.
Quote:
Not a 'total shock' if stocks plummet 25% and gold soars 50% by October
Stephanie Landsman Sunday, 2 Jul 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/02/ron-paul-not-a-shock-if-stocks-fall-25-percent-and-gold-soars-50-percent-by-oct.html
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


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Stock Update for July 6, 2017 - S&P breaks the 50 day [Re: katsung47]
#24462731 - 07/06/17 05:38 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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He made a similar prediction last year that didn't come to fruition. But when it comes down to it, I agree with him. A 25% correction on the S&P wouldn't come as a shock after it's shockingly consistent jaunt higher over the past so many years. Gold going up by 50% would come as more of a surprise, but if we see some aggregate issue with the financial sector (lookin' over at Europe at the moment) or maybe a war breaking out if North Korea gets too cute with their missile tests, I suppose it could happen.
At any rate, I trade what's in front of me, and interestingly enough, the S&P did knife through its 50 day moving average today, all while expanding out of a volatility squeeze to the downside. As such, my portfolio is positioned bearish, via day trades on the UVXY and SPY puts in general. Holding some size in the August expiration SPY $244 and $242 puts, although I closed half of the position today at the close just in case we get a quick snap back to the 50 day tomorrow. Looking for the SPY to hit 238 as my first downside target and if that level doesn't hold, 235 is my second target. At each of these levels, I will begin adding to AAPL January expiration call options.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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amp244
Sporocarp Stretching


Registered: 08/05/08
Posts: 1,336
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: katsung47]
#24462764 - 07/06/17 05:45 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Well he said he wouldn't be shocked if there was a correction, but also stated repeatedly that he doesn't know. I do agree that its coming sooner or later. The economy has been undergoing chemotherapy treatment for sometime now and is fucked beyond repair, and the U.S. dollar is on the way out, having been subjected to the same degree of mismanagement.
Cryptocurrencies have already begun displacing the US dollar in some foreign markets, to a small extent (Japan has made bitcoin legal tender). Its a matter of time before nations begin conducting international commerce in bitcoin, or other like instruments, displacing the dollar on a massive scale, at which point the dollar would cease to be worth anything at all. This would of course have an impact on just about every international market there is. Gold would soar (in terms of USD), and the stock markets would take a huge hit. But it would be interesting to see how the price of gold represented in Bitcoins would be altered, if at all.
But who knows? Maybe bitcoins never really get accepted, or the blockchain becomes corrupted and the dollar is saved. But part of me thinks that bitcoins are here to stay and the dollar is nearing its death.
One thing is for certain, the dollar and the economy have been circling the drain for quite sometime now, and they may continue circling for quite some more time.
-------------------- How to Convert a Normal 24-hour Light Timer into a Short Cycle Repeating Timer "Monopoly, besides, is a great enemy to good management, which can never be universally established but in consequence of that free and universal competition which forces everybody to have recourse in it for the sake of self-defense." -Adam Smith
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: amp244]
#24463162 - 07/06/17 07:43 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yeah it's a turd waiting to be flushed, not once
But Twice.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#24508456 - 07/25/17 11:06 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Roughly 4 months results... +5%. Oddly enough, my most out of the box ideas have paid the most except LB. Outside of FB, the in the box ideas have been mediocre. Kirkland Lake continues to kill it. PVG earnings should be entertaining.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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Cyrus19
Represents Enlil's Hope

Registered: 02/24/17
Posts: 2,503
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: amp244]
#24509029 - 07/26/17 08:27 AM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
amp244 said: Well he said he wouldn't be shocked if there was a correction, but also stated repeatedly that he doesn't know. I do agree that its coming sooner or later. The economy has been undergoing chemotherapy treatment for sometime now and is fucked beyond repair, and the U.S. dollar is on the way out, having been subjected to the same degree of mismanagement.
Cryptocurrencies have already begun displacing the US dollar in some foreign markets, to a small extent (Japan has made bitcoin legal tender). Its a matter of time before nations begin conducting international commerce in bitcoin, or other like instruments, displacing the dollar on a massive scale, at which point the dollar would cease to be worth anything at all. This would of course have an impact on just about every international market there is. Gold would soar (in terms of USD), and the stock markets would take a huge hit. But it would be interesting to see how the price of gold represented in Bitcoins would be altered, if at all.
But who knows? Maybe bitcoins never really get accepted, or the blockchain becomes corrupted and the dollar is saved. But part of me thinks that bitcoins are here to stay and the dollar is nearing its death.
One thing is for certain, the dollar and the economy have been circling the drain for quite sometime now, and they may continue circling for quite some more time.
I doubt bitcoin will ever get mainstream acceptance most people don't even know what it is and those that do many don't really understand it. Who the heck would want a currency that fluctuates constantly? Bitcoin really only appeals to anti government fanatics and drug users so I don't see it going anywhere but it will only have a niche appeal.
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amp244
Sporocarp Stretching


Registered: 08/05/08
Posts: 1,336
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: Cyrus19]
#24510142 - 07/26/17 06:10 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
I doubt bitcoin will ever get mainstream acceptance most people don't even know what it is and those that do many don't really understand it. Who the heck would want a currency that fluctuates constantly? Bitcoin really only appeals to anti government fanatics and drug users so I don't see it going anywhere but it will only have a niche appeal.
Over 99% of people in the U.S. don't understand the US dollar and how it works, and it is constantly fluctuating. It's a fiat currency worth less than 4% of what it was worth 100 years ago, and people are still accepting it.
As far as only appealing to drug dealers and other dissenters:
- You can buy and sell bitcoin with paypal.
- Japan has declared it legal tender.
- Fidelity investments has instruments that allow their clients to invest in cryptocurrencies.
- Next time you are checking out online, pay attention to the payment options. I just bought 60lbs of N-Butane, I had the option of paying in bitcoin. JM Bullion allows you to buy precious metals with bitcoin, they actually give you a discount for using that over your credit card, and it clears instantly. Its the most convenient way to purchase precious metals online imo.
Bitcoin is gaining more and more acceptance everyday, unless you see that trend reversing, its only going to get stronger. The world is getting tired of the USD. And to be honest, it doesn't matter whether or not people buy their groceries with Bitcoin or USD, it matters whether or not other countries trade with each other in USD or Bitcoin. The USD has value only because it enjoys its status as the world's reserve currency. "If you believe that the world will continue to take our dollars no matter what our debt is, Americans shouldn't have to work anymore. We would just print all the money."
-------------------- How to Convert a Normal 24-hour Light Timer into a Short Cycle Repeating Timer "Monopoly, besides, is a great enemy to good management, which can never be universally established but in consequence of that free and universal competition which forces everybody to have recourse in it for the sake of self-defense." -Adam Smith
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amp244
Sporocarp Stretching


Registered: 08/05/08
Posts: 1,336
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Quote:
All We Perceive said: Roughly 4 months results... +5%. Oddly enough, my most out of the box ideas have paid the most except LB. Outside of FB, the in the box ideas have been mediocre. Kirkland Lake continues to kill it. PVG earnings should be entertaining.
Thanks for sharing with everyone!
-------------------- How to Convert a Normal 24-hour Light Timer into a Short Cycle Repeating Timer "Monopoly, besides, is a great enemy to good management, which can never be universally established but in consequence of that free and universal competition which forces everybody to have recourse in it for the sake of self-defense." -Adam Smith
Edited by amp244 (07/26/17 06:17 PM)
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: amp244]
#24510567 - 07/26/17 09:29 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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FB crushed earnings boooom. $200 by year end
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for July 27, 2017 - A Tremor in the Force [Re: All We Perceive]
#24512869 - 07/27/17 09:22 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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The market showed a few cracks today, and I suspect we will have farther to fall, at least in the short term. Of particular note, the Dow Jones Transportation index sliced through its 50 day moving average like a hot knife through butter, down over 3%. The Transportation index is often looked to as a market "tell", and if today's action is any indication, the market might have a tough time climbing higher in a meaningful way. There has been a big correlation between the Fed's expanding balance sheet and the impressive market run of the past several years. That correlation has been broken over the last year, as the Fed has stopped expanding its balance sheet and yet the market continues to trudge higher into lofty valuations with exceptionally low volatility. Aggregate correlation has also dropped to levels not seen since the dot com bust; meaning that there are a few heavyweights carrying this market higher, but that the rising tide is no longer lifting all boats. This level of narrowing breadth has typically indicated a correction within the following year.
Now all these data points are interesting to think about, but ultimately we must remember that our ability to manage risk in a disciplined fashion, using the price action as our guide, is how to make money. Hope is not a strategy, nor is prognostication, even as many will often believe in both. My trading account holds only a few January calls in AAPL. I had been legging into SPY puts over the past week, doubling down this morning after watching the ETF fail to break its opening high (of course setting a protective stop right above that high) and ultimately closing the entire position about 2/3 through the day.
Gun to my head, I would say a test of 244 on the SPY is a foregone conclusion in the very near term. I think 240 is a likely next stop in a matter of weeks. And if earnings start to falter and the Fed takes a hawkish tone, I would not be surprised to see 230 on the SPY within the next month or two. I'm not reckless however, which is why I booked my profits on the intraday dislocation and will look to trade only when the setup is ripe for an ideally positioned protective stop... because this market has been strong, the Fed seems ever reluctant to contract their balance sheet in a meaningful way and the market, as they say, climbs a wall of worry.
Be careful out there.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Stock Update for July 27, 2017 - A Tremor in the Force [Re: geokills]
#24513524 - 07/28/17 07:57 AM (6 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: The market showed a few cracks today, and I suspect we will have farther to fall, at least in the short term. Of particular note, the Dow Jones Transportation index sliced through its 50 day moving average like a hot knife through butter, down over 3%. The Transportation index is often looked to as a market "tell", and if today's action is any indication, the market might have a tough time climbing higher in a meaningful way. There has been a big correlation between the Fed's expanding balance sheet and the impressive market run of the past several years. That correlation has been broken over the last year, as the Fed has stopped expanding its balance sheet and yet the market continues to trudge higher into lofty valuations with exceptionally low volatility. Aggregate correlation has also dropped to levels not seen since the dot com bust; meaning that there are a few heavyweights carrying this market higher, but that the rising tide is no longer lifting all boats. This level of narrowing breadth has typically indicated a correction within the following year.
Now all these data points are interesting to think about, but ultimately we must remember that our ability to manage risk in a disciplined fashion, using the price action as our guide, is how to make money. Hope is not a strategy, nor is prognostication, even as many will often believe in both. My trading account holds only a few January calls in AAPL. I had been legging into SPY puts over the past week, doubling down this morning after watching the ETF fail to break its opening high (of course setting a protective stop right above that high) and ultimately closing the entire position about 2/3 through the day.
Gun to my head, I would say a test of 244 on the SPY is a foregone conclusion in the very near term. I think 240 is a likely next stop in a matter of weeks. And if earnings start to falter and the Fed takes a hawkish tone, I would not be surprised to see 230 on the SPY within the next month or two. I'm not reckless however, which is why I booked my profits on the intraday dislocation and will look to trade only when the setup is ripe for an ideally positioned protective stop... because this market has been strong, the Fed seems ever reluctant to contract their balance sheet in a meaningful way and the market, as they say, climbs a wall of worry.
Be careful out there.
"the Fed seems ever reluctant to contract their balance sheet in a meaningful way"
Yet, Yellen said the Fed was planning on reducing the balance sheet this week and the market didn't believe her as the dollar tanked.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 27, 2017 - A Tremor in the Force [Re: qman]
#24513547 - 07/28/17 08:15 AM (6 years, 5 months ago) |
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If I recall correctly, the numbers the Fed has floated in terms of their balance sheet reduction targets are far more symbolic than meaningful... something along the order of a handful of billions at a time in a pool of trillions doesn't really move the needle. That being said, the fact that they aren't expanding the balance sheet yet the market has continued higher, should give the market pause, and yet, it hasn't really done that.
I piled back into my SPY shorts via primarily August puts this morning on the failed attempt at breaching the opening rotation high of ~$246.90 (I define opening rotation as the high volume churn that takes place during the first 15 minutes of trading, a move above or below this first 15 minute range will often signal a persistent trend for the day). 1/3 of the position is protected by a stop at VWAP (~$246.65), another 1/3 at the day's highs of $246.88 and the final 1/3 at yesterday's closing high of $247.25.
Not a lot of meaningful selling here, as we have actually bounced back into the opening range and are just hanging around right under VWAP (volume weighted average price)... Friday's are typically a bit slower. I will progressively tighten my stops and am not expecting a blowout move either way, but my bias is definitely for some continuation to the downside.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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jhustla88
doc

Registered: 07/16/11
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Re: Stock Update for July 27, 2017 - A Tremor in the Force [Re: geokills]
#24529961 - 08/04/17 02:09 PM (6 years, 5 months ago) |
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Hello everyone, I am fairly new to a 401k managed by Fidelity. I noticed there is a avg fee of around 2% in my portfoliio which is primarily invested in mutual funds. My question is, should i stick with the mutual funds and take the hit when i retire or invest in the lower fee investments. I just dont see a reason to give my money away to whoever. I work hard and someone is making an enormous amount of cash off of my hard work. Btw i 28 years old almost 29. I have 10k worth of debt but still max out my 401k.
-------------------- High desert
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
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Re: Stock Update for July 27, 2017 - A Tremor in the Force [Re: jhustla88]
#24530452 - 08/04/17 05:11 PM (6 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
jhustla88 said: Hello everyone, I am fairly new to a 401k managed by Fidelity. I noticed there is a avg fee of around 2% in my portfoliio which is primarily invested in mutual funds. My question is, should i stick with the mutual funds and take the hit when i retire or invest in the lower fee investments. I just dont see a reason to give my money away to whoever. I work hard and someone is making an enormous amount of cash off of my hard work. Btw i 28 years old almost 29. I have 10k worth of debt but still max out my 401k.
Stick with index funds, much cheaper.
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 8, 2017 - Languishing Right Under Resistance [Re: geokills]
#24538683 - 08/08/17 08:05 AM (6 years, 5 months ago) |
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Market breadth continues to be quite narrow, but there are still some good lookers out there to focus on. AAPL looks like it is just about to eclipse its earnings peak at around $160. That would have it trading in blue sky territory, at all time highs. Never a bad place to be, as there is nobody holding stock who wants to exit their trade due to regret, thus supply is limited. TSLA is also continuing to march higher after its earnings beat. I wasn't holding any on earnings, as the stock was rather broken from a technical standpoint, but I did make a purchase the day after, since earnings brought the stock right to its 50 day moving average and it broke above that earnings day high the next morning. I doubled the position yesterday, as it traded in a tight range toward the top of the prior day's breakout, and today I am getting rewarded. Tightening my stops; one half at today's VWAP (volume weighted average price) and one half below any high volume 5 minute candles that develop on the intraday chart. This gives my holding room to run, but not so much room that I end up giving back a meaningful amount of my unrealized profits in case it does reverse course.
A new trade for me on a big semiconductor company, TSM, printed a new all time high this morning after squeezing at its 50 day moving average. Those who have been reading my posts for the past ten years know that "volatility squeezes" at a key moving average for an already uptrending stock is my favorite trade setup. This action setups up a base whereby the average cost basis of stockholders is clustered around the key moving average, so once a breakout occurs, it typically has a very solid foundation as everyone who has been waiting patiently allows their trade to pay off (and often adds to the trade on the breakout). Bought a boatload of Oct $35 calls this morning, with a stop below yesterday's big move at $36.25. Spreads are a bit wide on this, but by buying a strike that is somewhat deep in the money, I mitigate the expensive cost of the option (I also bought a contract a few months out, just in case the stock does take awhile to truly break out, so I won't get preemptively shaken out of my trade as shorter dated options will swing in value much quicker). I wouldn't typically be so aggressive on an option trade where the options are so thin, but that volatility squeeze is too enticing for me not to jump on.
On balance, although the DOW has been doing great, it's not really representative of the aggregate market. The S&P500 has been trading sideways for weeks, and while it would seem it should breakout, it hasn't, and that gives me pause (largely on account of the cautions elucidated in my previous post from July 27th). That being said, it hasn't sold off either, and now the bollinger bands are beginning to squeeze. So I suspect that if and when it does break in either direction, odds favor a violent move.
The crypto space is absolutely on fire as well, but that's a discussion for another thread. Still figured it is worth mentioning, as any investor who likes to actively play the market should, in my opinion, allocate a small portion of their portfolio toward that emerging technology.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (08/08/17 09:01 AM)
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for July 27, 2017 - A Tremor in the Force [Re: jhustla88]
#24538692 - 08/08/17 08:10 AM (6 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
jhustla88 said: Hello everyone, I am fairly new to a 401k managed by Fidelity. I noticed there is a avg fee of around 2% in my portfoliio which is primarily invested in mutual funds. My question is, should i stick with the mutual funds and take the hit when i retire or invest in the lower fee investments. I just dont see a reason to give my money away to whoever. I work hard and someone is making an enormous amount of cash off of my hard work. Btw i 28 years old almost 29. I have 10k worth of debt but still max out my 401k.
While a few mutual funds have performed slightly better than a passive S&P or Total Market Vanguard fund, it is important to keep in mind that over the last 15 years, 92.2% of large-cap funds lagged a simple S&P500 index fund. So unless you happen to get lucky, it just doesn't make sense to pay extra in fees to involve advisors in actively managed funds.
Also, and this is really important... unless the $10K of debt you hold is at 0% interest, or you are using the debt to arbitrage a spread between the cost of servicing your debt versus a guaranteed fixed income investment, you really should pay that debt down before contributing to your retirement account. Caveat, if your company does a full match on the 401k and your debt service expense is low, then maybe it makes sense to let the debt ride in order to grab the company match on your 401k. But generally speaking, you never want to hold a liability that is constantly draining your asset base, just to allocate resources to risk assets that may or may not rise in value. Debt can be useful, but for the vast majority, it isn't managed correctly.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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