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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8643010 - 07/16/08 02:40 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Jesus brother, why are you always so grouchy in your posts? 

You spend a lot of time talking about how other people are wrong, and specifically how day trading is the best/easiest/only way to make significant amounts of money in the market (at least that's how it comes off after having read your posts in this forum over the past many months).  So instead of just slamming everything you don't agree with, why don't you take some time to explain your strategies in greater detail for the rest of us who may not understand what your strategy is all about?

I know I'm a n00b at investing, I haven't made a lot of money over my three years doing this (but I haven't lost any either!), and I've made it very clear throughout this thread that I want to continue to learn - that's why I am maintaining this thread, because I want to check myself throughout the process and maybe even get other people inspired about investing.  So please, teach us!  You seem to indicate that you have been a successful day trader, and I would love nothing more than for you to open up a topic on the subject, and perhaps even use it in similar fashion as this thread, to keep us updated on your moves in real time so that we can learn from your strategies.  If you don't have the time, I understand, but it's a little ridiculous that you have to shit on everyone else who doesn't understand your way when you refuse to appraise of us your way.


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 16, 2008 - NOV, FCX [Re: geokills]
    #8643137 - 07/16/08 03:05 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Being weighted in materials and energy, I have been feeling a lot of pain over the past week.  Natural gas and oil have been undergoing a correction, and I believe that this presents a viable opportunity for people to build positions in the sector if they have not already.  Many of these stocks are now 15 - 25% off of their recent highs.  Unless you believe that we are in for a worldwide economic slowdown (which I don't), commodity and energy prices will remain strong going forward, as nations such as China, Russia, and many south American countries continue to grow and build infrastructure.  The market has been taking a very US-centric view (typical), but I believe that once earnings in these materials and energy groups continue to come in strong, the valuations will continue to grow and these stocks will move higher.

  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - Bought 15 shares at $78.79

    With shares some 5% below my cost basis and the position still small in my portfolio, I decided to use the ongoing weakness in the oil/energy sector to add to this position.  I have been waiting for the stock to dip below $80 ever since my buy order at $77 failed to trigger a couple of weeks ago.  Today I received that opportunity and I took it.  This is a company that provides equipment to the oil and gas drilling and production industry.  The fundamentals here are outstanding, as this is one of the key "go to" names for any drilling company, and NOV's sizable backlog of committed orders offers excellent visibility going forward.  With the stock now over 14% below its high, I am happy to continue building the position, and would like to buy even more if shares can find their way to the mid to low $70's.  With a price to earnings growth multiple (PEG) of only 0.62x, this company is cheap.  If shares worked their way below $70, I would be willing to double the size of this position from 4.5 to a full 9% weighting in my portfolio (though in turn I would likely scale back on my Transocean RIG position, which has already shown me a 60% gain, in order to maintain diversification).


  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) - Currently trading at $101.43

    I tried to catch a handful of shares in this name when it dipped below $100 but my bid was too low and did not trigger.  This company is also hugely cheap on a price to earnings growth (PEG) basis, at only 0.66x.  In the materials sector, FCX is the world's largest copper producer, and has mining interests in gold and molybdenum as well.  This gives me exposure to the materials sector alongside my position in Nucor Steel (NUE).  One of the most compelling reasons driving my desire to pick up more FCX is the fact that copper is up 20% for the year, and yet FCX is flat on the year.  This is a divergence that I believe will play out to the advantage of long-term FCX stock holders.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/16/2008:
  • 12.1% Cash
  • 7.7% Nucor Steel (NUE)
  • 7.6% CPFL Energia (CPL)
  • 7.2% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 6.7% Altria (MO)
  • 6.4% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.3% Schering-Plough (SGP)
  • 6.2% Transocean (RIG)
  • 5.9% Deere (DE)
  • 5.7% WalMart (WMT)
  • 4.8% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 4.5% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  • 4.2% Southwestern Energy (SWN)
  • 4.0% Raytheon (RTN)
  • 4.0% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 3.7% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.2% Devon Energy (DVN)


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OfflineTerillius
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8643754 - 07/16/08 05:12 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Liquidkick said:
What do you mean a bad time? 

This is a GREAT TIME to investigate stocks.  See you have it stuck in your head that you must always go long into stocks. 
...
It seems as though the majority of the people on this message board have no idea what the hell is going on with money.  Its like this is Personal Finance for people who are struggling in life.




So you are preaching to go against the trend?  Is that it?  I can't follow what you are saying.  On a personal note, it sounds like I have had more fun losing 15% than you have had with your superior technique reaping you massive profits.  :rolleyes:

I don't think anyone can understand the market.  I think the most successful investors are the head of vast firms where they have multiple people watching each sector closely all the time.  Or they are lucky.  For every miracle story you hear there are 500,000 dudes like Geo who invest 100% skillfully but just don't happen to pick that one perfect stock that one time.

I am far more displeased at losing x% than gaining that same percentage.  That is why I decided to seek exit points.  I dollar lost is worth two dollars gained to me.  I'm just not a gambler.


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 23, 2008 - PBR, DVN, SWN, NOV [Re: geokills]
    #8672817 - 07/23/08 05:17 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Been a while since I've updated this.  Had a lot of personal shit to deal with in my life that kept me away from my portfolio for the most part.
Unfortunate timing, as my big bets on oil and gas have gotten slaughtered in the meantime.  :sad:


I did close my position in Petrobas (PBR) for a wash (no profit / no loss).  This reduced my exposure to the painful sector, but my relatively recent additions of Devon Energy (DVN) and Southwestern Energy (SWN) are now 18% and 25% below my basis.  No excuses, just terrible performance.  Unfortunately, it's a little too late to trim these guys as they have fallen so much.  So instead, I will probably aim to stick this out for the long haul.  Thankfully, these were not full positions, and this circumstance reinforces why it is so important to buy incrementally over time when dealing with long term investment ideas.  I am contemplating adding to these positions on continued weakness, though I am certainly in no hurry to do so as oil has been in a strong short-term downtrend here and it probably isn't over quite yet.  On the bright side, this means gasoline may drop back to $3.50 in the near future!

As an aside, it was stupid of me to have sold off my position in Goldman Sachs (GS) recently.  With the expectations for the banking sector so low, it shouldn't have been so surprising that we were in for a pop, and that's just what we got after Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) reported better than expected earnings (even though they are still losing money).  At this point, my portfolio has zero financial exposure, and on account of this in conjunction with my heavy weighting in oil and gas, I have vastly underperformed the market over the last week. 


  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - Bought 20 shares at $75

    This company is one of few with excellent visibility, and what I'd like to call "unbiased" exposure to the oil drilling sector, since they work with so many drillers and producers in the oil and gas industry.  Even though oil is cooling off, I don't think we're going below $100 a barrel, and companies will still be drilling.  NOV stands to benefit from this long-term trend, and I am aiming to hold this for quite some time.  Particularly as I've scaled back and taken sizeable profits in my Transocean (RIG) position, I will continue to build this position if the stock should approach $70 a share.


  • 15.7% Cash
  • 7.5% CPFL Energia (CPL)
  • 7.4% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.0% Altria (MO)
  • 6.9% Nucor Steel (NUE)
  • 6.7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.7% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  • 6.6% Deere (DE)
  • 6.0% Walmart (WMT)
  • 5.8% Schering-Plough (SGP)
  • 4.8% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 4.5% Transocean (RIG)
  • 4.2% Raytheon (RTN)
  • 3.7% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.6% Southwestern Energy (SWN)
  • 3.0% Devon Energy (DVN)


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2008 - PBR, DVN, SWN, NOV [Re: geokills]
    #8689708 - 07/27/08 07:17 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Well, as ythan and lana have proved they are ignorant bashing my opinion in another thread.  I have notice that this whole message board and the people are not the type I want to help. 

Yes i am hostile these days. 

I am fine with the way you invest.  I believe day trading is faster.  I personally like to be in and out and not have anything at risk.

Of course you don't want to fight the trend.  But there is a thing called short selling and put options that you can use versus the long only strategy that i see being employed here. 

Everyone must learn to play both sides.


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Terillius]
    #8689728 - 07/27/08 07:24 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Terillius said:
Quote:

Liquidkick said:
What do you mean a bad time? 

This is a GREAT TIME to investigate stocks.  See you have it stuck in your head that you must always go long into stocks. 
...
It seems as though the majority of the people on this message board have no idea what the hell is going on with money.  Its like this is Personal Finance for people who are struggling in life.




So you are preaching to go against the trend?  Is that it?  I can't follow what you are saying.  On a personal note, it sounds like I have had more fun losing 15% than you have had with your superior technique reaping you massive profits.  :rolleyes:

I don't think anyone can understand the market.  I think the most successful investors are the head of vast firms where they have multiple people watching each sector closely all the time.  Or they are lucky.  For every miracle story you hear there are 500,000 dudes like Geo who invest 100% skillfully but just don't happen to pick that one perfect stock that one time.

I am far more displeased at losing x% than gaining that same percentage.  That is why I decided to seek exit points.  I dollar lost is worth two dollars gained to me.  I'm just not a gambler.




wow, i shouldn't help you.  It's called RISK.  NOT GAMBLING.  You should know the risk/reward of every trade you take.  you should be taking  high probability trades.

I believe people who call it gambling are ignorant. 

I SAID TRADES not INVESTMENTS.  I don't "INVEST"

Maybe you should start hedging your positions if you don't want to "gamble".

Market makers typically are running a neutral hedge and still come out on top.


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OfflineTerillius
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8690181 - 07/27/08 09:23 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Bah. :thumbdown:

Thanks for the "help".

Quote:

I SAID TRADES not INVESTMENTS.




Now you are just splitting hairs.  I think you have sand in your vagina.


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Terillius]
    #8691154 - 07/28/08 01:31 AM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Terillius said:
Bah. :thumbdown:

Thanks for the "help".

Quote:

I SAID TRADES not INVESTMENTS.




Now you are just splitting hairs.  I think you have sand in your vagina.




No its not splitting hairs, people actually think of trades as an investment. 

And your attitude is the precise reason i am unwilling to help anyone.


Edited by Liquidkick (07/29/08 12:18 AM)


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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8691590 - 07/28/08 08:44 AM (15 years, 6 months ago)

The only reason people have an attitude with you is because you've been an asshole from the start.


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 28, 2008 - RTN, SWN, FCX, NOV [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8691775 - 07/28/08 10:05 AM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Ok everyone, I apologize for further driving this thread into a personal nature.  Liquidkick, I do understand what you're saying about your desire to be "in and out and not have anything at risk."  That makes a lot of sense to me, especially now, at a point where I've become so consumed with personal matters that I've let losing positions ride too long, and am so confused by my own internal struggle that I don't feel any conviction to focus on my investment portfolio.  I also agree that short selling and option strategies are extremely valuable, and I admittedly have not spent enough time learning how to execute them properly (which is why I was asking you to share your techniques earlier!).  One of these days, I'm sure I'll delve into additional investment strategies on my own, but I suppose in that respect I am a little stubborn and move slowly.

As a quick note, I closed my Raytheon (RTN) position as a wash, no gain/loss.  The political environment is keeping a lid on this stock for now and I just don't want to have so much on the table anymore.  I also closed my Southwestern Energy (SWN) position for a 25% loss.  Knowing that I just don't have it in me to be as focused on investing right now, I am trying to build up cash and reduce my risk profile.  It hurt to sell down SWN for such a sizeable loss, but there has been such a rapid rotation out of energy stocks and I had way too much exposure to that sector, I want to concentrate my focus on the stocks that I have more overall conviction in, such as National Oilwell Varco.  Furthermore, I still have a realized gain on the year, so at least I am using my SWN loss as a way to offset my capital gains tax from the big wins I had cashed out on earlier in the year.

I did however pick up 12 more shares of Freeport McMoran (FCX) at $96 and 15 more National Oilwell Varco (NOV) at $74, as these are very reasonbly valued and have great long-term fundamentals.  Even though FCX and NOV may dip down to $90 and $70 respectively, on continued pressure in the energy and materials sectors, these two companies are very well positioned for the long haul, and that's precisely what they are - long term core holdings in my portfolio.

Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/28/2008:
  • 20.4% Cash
  • 8.5% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  • 7.5% CPFL Energia (CPL)
  • 7.3% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.1% Altria (MO)
  • 6.8% Nucor Steel (NUE)
  • 6.7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.6% Deere (DE)
  • 6.5% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 5.9% Walmart (WMT)
  • 5.8% Schering Plough (SGP)
  • 4.4% Transocean (RIG)
  • 3.5% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.1% Devon Energy (DVN)


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for July 28, 2008 - RTN, SWN, FCX, NOV [Re: geokills]
    #8692207 - 07/28/08 12:29 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Hope your personal life shapes up Geo. Don't know what's going on, but hate to hear about family struggling:heartpump:


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 28, 2008 - RTN, SWN, FCX, NOV [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #8693083 - 07/28/08 04:29 PM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Thanks for the love AtS.  You can take a peak at my journal if you want more of the details.


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Stock Update for July 28, 2008 - RTN, SWN, FCX, NOV [Re: geokills]
    #8695487 - 07/29/08 12:16 AM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Mosaic blew out earnings and it was down today.

Hmm... people moving money from commodities. 

You should definitely trim that portfolio seriously.  If you are not actively managing, why do you have such a big portfolio?

You'll be able to concentrate and make more money with a smaller one. 

Admin: Flames removed.  Please let's keep this thread on topic.



Edited by geokills (07/29/08 11:21 AM)


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for July 28, 2008 - RTN, SWN, FCX, NOV [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8696128 - 07/29/08 06:40 AM (15 years, 6 months ago)

Why don't you post a picture of your portfolio, or better yet, an earnings print-out from your broker. Put your money where your mouth is.

Admin: Flames removed.  Please let's keep this thread on topic.


Edited by geokills (07/29/08 11:21 AM)


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Stock Update for July 30, 2008 - NOV [Re: geokills]
    #8702521 - 07/30/08 02:10 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - Sold 12 shares @ $82.80

    This position had grown to be the largest in the portfolio, and while it is still my favorite oil related play, the share price has recovered on the heels of a good quarterly report some 12% from where I added to my position last week at $74.  Continuing to raise some cash, reducing my overall risk exposure, by scaling back an oversized position that has outperformed the market since my last purchase.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/30/2008:
  • 21.1% Cash
  • 7.5% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  • 7.4% CPFL Energia (CPL)
  • 7.3% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.1% Altria (MO)
  • 6.9% Nucor Steel (NUE)
  • 6.8% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.7% Deere (DE)
  • 6.6% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 5.9% Walmart (WMT)
  • 5.8% Schering Plough (SGP)
  • 4.5% Transocean (RIG)
  • 3.5% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.1% Devon Energy (DVN)


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Stock Update for August 1, 2008 - SGP, COG, RIMM [Re: geokills]
    #8713546 - 08/01/08 06:40 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

  • Schering-Plough (SGP) - Sold 100 shares @ $20.25

    I'm cutting this position in half, locking in a handsome 40% gain from where I originally purchased shares only a few months ago.  The FDA issued a "not-approvable" letter for SGP's sugammadex sodium injection, which is used to reverse muscle relaxation during general anesthesia.  This was to be a pretty big drug for SGP, one that is already approved in Europe, and this FDA ruling is a definite setback to shares of this drugmaker.  Shares had dropped more than 9% in premarket trading, but recovered very well throughout the day, which is why I decided to reduce my exposure here and book my profits.  I still hold a 100 share position, but will look towards other drug or biotech companies that may offer a better risk/reward picture.


  • Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) - Bought 77 shares @ $46

    Cabot is an independent oil and gas company.  It is a grower, and currently looks very reasonably valued, considering that the shares have fallen almost 40% in about six weeks.  This rapid decline in the share value is largely due to the commodity pullbacks in oil and natural gas.  Natural gas futures were trading up to around $13 but have recently fallen back to around $9.  I am betting that natural gas shouldn't fall much farther, though to be honest - this purchase may be a little more aggressive than it should be.  These shares are not likely to stabilize until natural gas stabilizes - and if you look at a chart, it has been in free fall!  Cabot has relatively low production costs with above average growth in hot areas such as the Haynesville and Marcellus shales.  Though its P/E ratio is above the industry median at 26x, the Price to Earnings Growth is a paltry 0.41x, compared to an industry average of 2.15x.  Looks cheap to me.


  • Research in Motion (RIMM) - Bought 25 shares @ $120.84

    Since my portfolio has been disproportionately weighted towards energy, oil and materials, it seems high time to diversify into some technology.  For those who don't know, Research in Motion is the maker of the very popular Blackberry cell phones.  RIMM has a new product cycle ahead of it, beginning with the Blackberry Bold which will be released worldwide, and in America in September, as well as the Blackberry Thunder which should come out late in the year.  Preliminary research indicates that there is a lot of interest in these phones.  There should be definite upside here, but make no mistake that the thesis behind this trade is based largely on hype ahead of the launch (i.e. this is not designed to be a long term investment).  RIMM had a lackluster quarter recently, but it was because of higher expenses.  Historically, when RIMM has increased expenditures ahead of a big launch, their stock has performed very well into the launch.  The idea here is to buy now, and sell into the launch.  I don't even want to wait around to see how the phones actually sell.  I just want to get on this train for the hype, and begin selling out of the position as the Bold hits the market.  That's my plan, and on any near term weakness I would be happy to buy more of this stock.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 8/1/2008:
  • 15% Cash
  • 7.5% CPFL Energia (CPL)
  • 7.5% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.4% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  • 7.0% Altria (MO)
  • 6.8% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.6% Deere (DE)
  • 6.4% Nucor Steel (NUE)
  • 6.1% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 6.0% Walmart (WMT)
  • 5.1% Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
  • 4.5% Transocean (RIG)
  • 4.5% Research in Motion (RIMM)
  • 3.5% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.1% Devon Energy (DVN)
  • 3.1% Schering Plough (SGP)


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InvisibleHeavyToilet
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Re: Stock Update for August 1, 2008 - SGP, COG, RIMM [Re: geokills]
    #8716622 - 08/02/08 02:53 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

I wonder, does anyone know of any professional trading journals on the net? It would be pretty good to see what the successful traders are doing.


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Stock Update for August 5, 2008 - COG, NUE, RIG [Re: HeavyToilet]
    #8729902 - 08/05/08 04:45 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

There are some subscription services for paid trading journals.  You could also check out www.stockpickr.com - specifically http://www.stockpickr.com/list/latestpro/ .  There are plenty of pros on there who list their positions, though they probably don't update their positions in real time.

That said, I've really been beaten in the market lately.  I violated my own discipline regarding diversification and I paid heartily for it.  I overweighted myself in natural gas, energy and materials, and to put it bluntly, was dead wrong.  Since I'm going out of town for a week to hike/camp in Yosemite, I think it's time I back up a bit and raise some cash.

  • Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) - Closed Position at $42

    Quick loss on this one.  Oh well, oil and natural gas are crashing and if I'm so inclined, I'm pretty sure I'll be able to pick this one back up, lower.  This company is cheap given its great growth potential... but until oil and natural gas prices stabilize, it's just too rocky a road for me to handle right now.


  • Nucor Steel (NUE) - Sold 40 shares at $52

    Another loss (not so quick) on this one.  Part of the whole commodity/materials selloff.  I've been way too overweight on these, I should have acted on this earlier but I didn't.  Tough luck for me.  I like Freeport McMoran (FCX) better than Nucor, as a materials name, and so that is the one I will be focusing on from here on out.


  • Transocean (RIG) - Closed Position @ $131.01

    Bought these shares at $80, booking a nearly 64% gain.  This company has good visibility and should be alright going forward, but I'm feeling the need to take some profits while I got 'em, and this is one to go, further reducing my exposure to oil.  I will henceforth focus on National Oilwell Varco (NOV) as my primary oil related position, but may get interested in RIG again if its share price should fall sharply from here.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 8/5/2008:
  • 23.9% Cash
  • 7.9% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.5% CPFL Energia (CPL)
  • 7.3% Altria (MO)
  • 7.2% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 7.2% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  • 6.9% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
  • 6.4% Research in Motion (RIMM)
  • 6.4% Deere (DE)
  • 6.4% Walmart (WMT)
  • 3.6% Apple (AAPL)
  • 3.2% Schering Plough (SGP)
  • 3.2% Nucor Steel (NUE)
  • 3.0% Devon Energy (DVN)


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
Learning to See
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Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
Re: Stock Update for August 5, 2008 - COG, NUE, RIG [Re: geokills]
    #8730153 - 08/05/08 05:47 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

Why do you sell to get cash if this is investment funds?

If you are long, why don't you stay long until you book profits.

Not questioning your judgment as I am a noob, but I am quite curious.

The way I figured mine was this: I don't need the money right now, and even if the stock goes down, I can wait it out for a while to hopefully ensure a profit.

Please tell.


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OfflineTerillius
Renaissance Man
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Registered: 07/21/06
Posts: 1,301
Loc: Flag
Last seen: 3 years, 10 days
Re: Stock Update for August 5, 2008 - COG, NUE, RIG [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #8730471 - 08/05/08 06:49 PM (15 years, 5 months ago)

The active trader attempts to outperform the market by making these little adjustments.  To buy, hold, and ignore is the job of the S&P500.

Not to answer for geo or anything; your question was just thought provoking...


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