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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for May 17, 2017 - Big Break [Re: geokills]
#24329458 - 05/18/17 09:25 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Risk nicely defined by today's open. Started small positions in CMG (burrito chain recovering from last year's e.coli outbreak) and CHKP (cybersecurity firm). AAPL, AMZN, SQ and NTES are showing some signs of life, but we aren't out of the woods yet. Without risk there shall be no reward, but without managing your risk, you are setting yourself up for disaster... Stops in place!
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Cyrus19
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Re: Stock Update for May 17, 2017 - Big Break [Re: geokills]
#24329648 - 05/18/17 10:43 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Risk nicely defined by today's open. Started small positions in CMG (burrito chain recovering from last year's e.coli outbreak) and CHKP (cybersecurity firm). AAPL, AMZN, SQ and NTES are showing some signs of life, but we aren't out of the woods yet. Without risk there shall be no reward, but without managing your risk, you are setting yourself up for disaster... Stops in place!
How do you feel about Tesla overvalued or maybe the next apple? Considering buying some shares.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for May 17, 2017 - Big Break [Re: Cyrus19] 1
#24329728 - 05/18/17 11:10 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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If you've read my recent posts in this thread, you would know that I do think TSLA has exceptionally impressive ambitions, that if they are able to execute on, should justify an even higher valuation than they currently hold. Of course it is important to note that they are not yet profitable, they are saddled with debt and likely to take on more as they ramp up production, and will need to maintain their rapid growth targets if they are going to sustain their current valuation. In short, it's not a stock for the faint of heart and will likely experience some wild swings, but if you are planning to buy some and put it away for several years, I would absolutely endorse the investment.
Insofar as actively trading the stock, it is in the middle of a consolidation range and the overall market is looking sketchy. TSLA CEO Elon Musk has had Trump's ear and would benefit from the proposed tax reform and "America First" policies that the Trump administration keeps touting... but if Trump does end up getting impeached (or even if the scandal drags on too long), these policy changes will have a hard time manifesting and the market is likely to remain under pressure until the situation is resolved. As such, I would only want to trade TSLA on a move above $328, or after it has continued to trade sideways in a narrowing range for some time. Longer term, I am comfortable buying a bit and checking in on it several years down the road. If you own some now in a trading account, I would keep a stop below $305 and a hard stop below $295.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for May 17, 2017 - Big Break [Re: geokills]
#24330232 - 05/18/17 02:25 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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https://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/is-the-market-plunge-just-a-storm-in-a-teacup
Maund is suggesting a correction down to the 200 day moving average (2250) which is just a 6-7% downward move, and then that will initiate the final parabolic blow off top for stocks.
I tend to agree, we are preparing for the final massive top which I think happens this fall (October), too bad most retail investors are going to be left holding the bag when it's all said and done.
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 19, 2017 - Cautious Rebound [Re: qman]
#24332962 - 05/19/17 01:18 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Took off my AMZN today as it tested its all time high and found some resistance. Also let go of CMG even though it looks relatively healthy here... the S&P had a good rebound the past couple of days and I would just rather not go into the weekend heavily invested. NTES is still looking pretty good, consolidating just above its 50 day moving average, so I'll hold onto that one so long as it stays above $275. SQ is a long term holding for me, so I don't see myself doing much with that (I actually added to it during the past couple of days). AAPL is also a long term position for me, which I will trade around opportunistically via shorter dated options, but am only holding a small core position via January 2018 options for now that I actually reduced a bit today in accordance with my general desire to reduce risk ahead of the weekend.
I did add a relatively new stock to my portfolio today, XTLY via Sept $10 calls, the first time I've held this relatively new and illiquid issue. This is a small cap cloud-based company that specializes in incentive compensation solutions for employee and sales performance management. It has good fundamentals, has historically had negative earnings but appears ready to turn the corner toward profitability here. The stock has traded more or less sideways all year and has just started to break out of its base to the upside. I would be happy to buy more of this at around $12.50-$12.75, with a stop below $12. Although the spreads are very wide, I was able to snag the Sept $10 calls for around $3.25, meaning that at the current price of $13.03/share, I only paid $0.22 (1.6%) of premium for the 119 days of time value on the contracts. Granted, if I have to sell these options when the stock is falling, I will get clipped due to the wide spread between the bid and the ask, but I am happy with my entry as I am not planning to flip this one around, but rather hold through the next earnings report.
In general, I would not expect the S&P to blast off to new highs without doing some serious consolidation between 2350-2400. Thus, I see no reason to hold a lot of large positions over the weekend. You never know what's going to come out of Trump Town, the Middle East, North Korea or the Federal Reserve... so it seems to me that the market holds a greater risk of trading sideways to down, and if it does break out, there should be plenty of time to build up positions. Just seems like the S&P needs to grind sideways and squeeze a bit here before anything happens.
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All We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for May 19, 2017 - Cautious Rebound [Re: geokills]
#24336586 - 05/20/17 07:49 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot. Whenever stocks look in breakout, Trump does something moronic and the roof caves in. I started a position in BAC and I'm slightly down. At the same time, I'm hoping iron and steel hits a bottom so I can get some on the cheap.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for May 19, 2017 - Cautious Rebound [Re: All We Perceive]
#24336935 - 05/20/17 11:12 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
All We Perceive said: Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot. Whenever stocks look in breakout, Trump does something moronic and the roof caves in. I started a position in BAC and I'm slightly down. At the same time, I'm hoping iron and steel hits a bottom so I can get some on the cheap.
What's your play for iron and steel?
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 22, 2017 - Cautious Rebound Continues, Day 3 of Upside Reversal [Re: All We Perceive]
#24340536 - 05/22/17 01:06 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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I would be cautious on the banks here All We Perceive. Keep an eye on the XLF, if it doesn't retake its 50 day moving average, particularly if it fails to break out above $24, I wouldn't want to be in that sector at all. Set an alert at $24, and if it moves above there, then buy some if you want. But for now, the sector is range bound, and the fact that BAC has been consolidating under its 50 day moving average for the past couple of months is not encouraging. The sector already had a big jump on Trump's election, and the risk of the Federal Reserve moving slower than their stated "three times in 2017" regarding increasing interest rates, is an added risk imo. If you want to hold your BAC to give it a chance, I would still keep a stop below today's low of $22.82. 'Cause if it falls below that, it's almost a foregone conclusion that it will test its 200 day moving average down at around $21, which would be a better place to start building a longer term position if you are so determined.
Now for what I do like... NTES and SQ are up a solid 2% and 5% respectively, and since they comprise the bulk of my active portfolio at the moment, I'm a happy camper. Some clear resistance on NTES at $300, but I'm going to give it more time to work as it is relatively immune from the US political landscape and the consolidation here above its 50 day moving average right after earnings continues to look constructive for further upside. SQ, fresh all time high, this is the stock that keeps on giving. Very strong fundamentals, lot of room to grow and plenty of opportunity to improve on the bottom line. AMZN, what do you know, another new all time high today, although not really showing follow through so far. I'm not about to jump back into it just yet, as the S&P has had a great three day rebound and is right back up against resistance at the 2400 level. AMZN likewise is near the top of its uptrending channel and so I would like to buy it on a tag of its 20 day moving average if possible.
I picked up one small new position in FISV this morning, just a couple of June $120 calls. It has been in a very stable uptrend, and was squeezing tightly at its 50 day moving average, an alert I set last week fired off this morning just as it started to break out. A volatility squeeze at a key moving average is generally a high probability trade setup for continuation to the upside. Of course, viewed through my belief that the market in aggregate is going to have to trade sideways a bit before being able to break out to new highs, I'm keeping the position small, staying heavy cash in general and waiting patiently for better opportunities before getting aggressive.
PS. Really happy with my BTC and ETH cryptocurrency allocations right about now
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 23, 2017 - Gap and Crap? [Re: geokills]
#24342329 - 05/23/17 08:00 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Well we are right back up at resistance now, having completely erased last Wednesday's bloodbath that so briefly sliced through the S&P's 50 day moving average. Market gapped higher and has been selling off since the opening print, smells like a good ol' gap 'n crap, so I opened up short positions via SPY June $240 puts (in size) and UVXY June $11 calls on the morning weakness. Stops on both positions set above the morning's intraday high.
Took off 2/3 of my NTES June $280 calls for a 75% gain. Can't imagine we have much juice for a market breakout right here right now, but I've been wrong before...
Edit: Aaaand, looks like today wasn't the day to play the big short ... stopped out for a small loss as the morning print was taken out to the upside. Did buy some MOMO June $40 calls, more or less the Chinese Facebook, but not as mature of a company yet. Still very impressive revenue growth and positive earnings just released this morning. Stock gapped and crapped, but quickly stabilized and is almost back to where it closed yesterday. Stop below $39.50. SQ, swoon . Leadership stocks like AAPL, AMZN, FB, just grinding sideways. I still think we are going to pull back here or at least trade sideways for a while before any bonafide upside breakout, but the S&P didn't cooperate with my attempt at shorting this morning, and I'm happy to let my discipline trump my conviction any day... It's the only way to stay in this game.
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Edited by geokills (05/23/17 09:35 AM)
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for May 23, 2017 - Gap and Crap? [Re: geokills]
#24344534 - 05/23/17 09:55 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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"Here is what will bring the market down" Must watch.
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geokills
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Op-Ed by Mohamed El-Erian [Re: qman]
#24345521 - 05/24/17 09:10 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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I've always appreciated Mohamed El-Erian's market analysis, and would suggest checking out a piece he wrote, published in the Financial Times over the weekend: How the great market bull run can have a constructive end
Per the explicit request of FT.com, I won't copy the article (click the title above to read the full piece), but wanted to highlight the following points:- “There’s too much liquidity chasing too few opportunities — and it’s true for virtually all asset classes.”
- Profits have surged to a record share of GDP, allowing corporations to accumulate a large amount of cash on their balance sheets which is expected to end up with investors via higher dividends, buybacks or M&A activity.
- Increased income inequality has resulted in less consumption and more investing in the market, as on balance, the upper class with the most excess liquidity, funnels it into the market on account of the expectations driven by the previous point.
- Central bank buying of financial assets has amplified market strength and sustained resilience in the face of potential headwinds, because of the predictability of their purchase activities.
- Reduced volatility has encouraged increased use of leverage by both traders and long-term investors.
- Because all of the above sources of liquidity are likely to diminish over time, this "liquidity phenomenon" must hand off to government policies that improve economic fundamentals in order to validate high asset prices. Part of this hopeful scenario has been fueled by Trump's intended legislative agenda, which may or may not come to fruition.
El-Erian closes with a quote from Warren Buffett... "only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
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Sun_Woku
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Re: Op-Ed by Mohamed El-Erian [Re: geokills]
#24357274 - 05/28/17 07:11 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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A lot of great info in here...gonna read through again.
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 31, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24365031 - 05/31/17 11:34 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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I was surprised to see the market breakout to new highs last week. Since then, we've just been trading sideways and are now falling back into congestion around 2400. Although we technically set a new high last week, I am still of the opinion that we are not going to see meaningful upside follow through until there is some lengthy sideways consolidation or a pullback. Took 1/3 of my SQ position off the table today after it hit another new high, for a 69% gain. Closed my position in XTLY yesterday for a 70% gain when the company received a takeover bid (that's always nice!).
Bought a little bit more UVXY today, under the assumption that the market is going to correct here in the near term... but in the interest of full disclosure this is probably a bonehead move, as UVXY by design is destined to lose value over time and should only be used for short term trades (I'm down 25% on the $11 calls I initiated last week). There was some fairly significant broad selling this morning, so that was my signal to take another stab at it, but honestly I typically lose money when I attempt to trade UVXY, so buyer beware. This position is my lottery ticket, as when it moves... it can move really huge.
I did start to rebuild my position in NTES today as it tagged its 20 day moving average, buying September $290 calls. Wish I would've rebuilt my TSLA position last week as it's been setting new highs for the last couple of days... too bad so sad, can't buy it up here.
Other than that, staying cash heavy and laying in wait to buy some more BTC if it breaks below $2000 again or after a prolonged period of sideways consolidation. All in all, trying to not overtrade, as the market looks to be weakening, but is stubbornly resilient. If I can catch a break, I will press my bets. Today, those bets are made with a predominantly downside bias.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for May 31, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24367430 - 06/01/17 10:08 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Strong jobs data this morning is making the market more comfortable with the Fed's telegraphed rate hike later this month.
Quote:
geokills said: Bought a little bit more UVXY today ... but in the interest of full disclosure this is probably a bonehead move ... All in all, trying to not overtrade, as the market looks to be weakening, but is stubbornly resilient.
LOL, well at least I called it. Bonehead move. I was stopped out of 2/3 of my UVXY into the close yesterday, but it took until the breakout to new all time highs on the S&P just now to spit me out of the last 1/3 for an unpleasant loss. Downside bias gone, reluctantly bullish as the market has been strong, didn't fail on last month's gnarly FBI/Comey news selloff, and is now eclipsing the old highs. Keeping placeholder longs in AAPL, NVDA and FB (with the intent to build whenever we do get a decent selloff), only large positions are SQ, NTES, cryptocurrency and cash.
Probably won't be doing much throughout the balance of the week, since I'm heading to the Hollywood Bowl tonight to catch Dead & Company and will be struggling to keep up with my newborn after that so I'll likely forego the 6:30am alarm clock until next week
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All We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for May 31, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24386524 - 06/07/17 09:25 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Bought some HOME yesterday. +21% today on the quarter semi-beat. Strong leadership there... can't wait to see what happens when retail starts coming back. The bottom appears to be in. Going to dump AUY at open for a small gain and hold KLGDF and IAG. You were right on BAC -- -6% at the moment. Right as it seemed in a breakout, Trump did something moronic and the sector plummeted. I think once this Comey stuff blows over, the winds will blow towards banking again. It is clearly the most viable piece of legislation that the republicans could push through so I'm going to hold for a while and see what happens. Banking in general seems like a great long term hold as long as the economy doesn't tank. Either deregulation or a higher interest rate environment will benefit banks in the modestly short term.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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amp244
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Re: Op-Ed by Mohamed El-Erian [Re: geokills]
#24386928 - 06/08/17 12:34 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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I've been mulling over HOME for a little bit. I sold my CAMT @ $7.10 last week and have been looking for somewhere to go with the proceeds. I'm definitely going to be building a diversified Cryptocurrency portfolio (still waiting for gemini approval while its all taking off!), but I'd like to make a bet on some stocks as well. HOME's low P/E ratio caught my attention.
Looking at HOME financials I see strong operating cash flow and net income. The company paid off a huge chunk of their long-term debt ahead of time, and appears to have financed it mainly through a stock offering. I think that is a good move because the company is highly leveraged, which leads me to the only thing I could say was concerning regarding the balance sheet...
HOME has a huge goodwill valuation at over $1/2 billion. Excluding this valuation, total liabilities exceed the total tangible assets, most of which are non-liquid. The book value to liabilities ratio has been improving over the recent years however, and if things continue this will be reversed.
Speaking of non-liquid assets I noticed that well over half of the PPE is categorized as "Other Plant, Property, and Equipment", which are mainly leaseholds. The company is all over the place with leases and associated long-term construction projects. They are setting the stage for an expansion of retail locations to the tune of 25 locations/year. We'll see how this strategy meshes with the current environment with consumption down, as Geo cited.
They have a definite plan for growth and appear to transitioning to funding that growth with operational cash flow. They look like a solid bet to me, and if the retail market picks up, they'd be a great bet. I'll be looking to pick some up here.
-------------------- How to Convert a Normal 24-hour Light Timer into a Short Cycle Repeating Timer "Monopoly, besides, is a great enemy to good management, which can never be universally established but in consequence of that free and universal competition which forces everybody to have recourse in it for the sake of self-defense." -Adam Smith
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All We Perceive
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Re: Op-Ed by Mohamed El-Erian [Re: amp244]
#24387252 - 06/08/17 06:56 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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I haven't listened to the conference call yet but an interesting story here. They are set to expand at a rapid clip and revenue, net income, and same store sales are all accelerating. They will be able to acquire cheap leases due to the implosion of retail. Seems like a winner to me.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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amp244
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That P/E ratio wasn't as low as I thought. I don't know what I was looking at last night, but it wasn't a P/E ratio. Damn I was all excited. It still looks like its moving in the right direction, but I'm a little more apprehensive. I suppose the market sees a winner as well..
-------------------- How to Convert a Normal 24-hour Light Timer into a Short Cycle Repeating Timer "Monopoly, besides, is a great enemy to good management, which can never be universally established but in consequence of that free and universal competition which forces everybody to have recourse in it for the sake of self-defense." -Adam Smith
Edited by amp244 (06/08/17 12:44 PM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 8, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24388563 - 06/08/17 03:25 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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ECB maintained the status quo with no rate change and cuts to euro zone inflation expectations. Former FBI directory Comey's open session testimony in Congress was a whole lot of nothing that wasn't already known (closed session testimony may ultimately change that, but unless obstruction of justice charges appear likely, the market is as yet looking past that fiasco). I got chopped up pretty badly attempting to trade the swings throughout the testimony, really should've known better as the notes of his testimony were released prior to the actual interview... so if there were going to be a smoking gun, it would've been known prior to the market opening.
Fortunately, those losses were offset by continued outperformance from SQ and NVDA. NVDA is truly remarkable in its strength and I while it's hard to buy up here, I believe any weakness should be bought as this one appears to have a very bright future on account of its technical superiority in deep learning / AI / heavy math applications. NTES also popped at the open and I used the strength to close the last piece of my position. I still like the stock long term, but it's up 14% since the beginning of the month and I wanted to book profits since Chinese stocks like these can be real whippy and I had a very nice gain via my call options. I will look to reload on a retracement to $290-$300 via September calls. Other than that, I did buy some LOGM July $115 calls today @ $5, as the stock appears ready to break out of a volatility squeeze at its 50 day moving average, which I believe will allow it to at least test its earnings highs close to $125, and probably fly right past it unless the aggregate market takes a shit. I also added some FB on its strength into today's close, via very short dated June $155 calls, because they're cheap as hell and the stock closed at an all time high.
Heavy cash, but trading opportunistically.
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 9, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24390741 - 06/09/17 10:28 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just a quick note that the market is weakening intraday. Gapped higher with some follow through but has reversed. Small and mid caps, as well as financials are doing well (the latter on the expectations of a rate hike next week), but the major averages, technology specifically, is taking a beating. Ditched the LOGM trade, also cut FB back down to one long term option as a placeholder, sold NVDA on the spike at this morning's open for a cool 80% gain, boy was that timely! Cut the last of my SQ for a 100% gain and even loaded up some SPY puts that will be closed out before the day is over (edit: they have now been closed out for a 30% gain) (edit2: I reopened some longer dated SPY $244 July puts and opened a position in July $10 UVXY calls).
When all is said and done, I'll be almost entirely cash in my trading account and ready to take whatever opportunities may present themselves next week... or maybe just take a break, as the last month has been one of my best ever and it's typically good to take a step back after a string of good fortune, less overconfidence gets in the way of prudence and you end up making stupidly over-aggressive decisions. It's happened to me before more than I'd prefer to admit.
Edit: Picked up a handful of January expiry AAPL $150 calls @ $11. This is right above the stock's 50 day moving average, and while I'm not saying it can't go lower, I definitely think it'll be one of the first to rebound once this selloff surrounding the tech stocks shakes out.
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Edited by geokills (06/09/17 11:57 AM)
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