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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: qman]
#24249742 - 04/16/17 06:49 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Yellen raised rates so she has room to move when the ceiling starts coming in and wisely did so while the Trump camp was hawking an increased interest rate environment as the better. Plus, a .25% increase in the face of history were interest rates where multiples of where they are now has minimal actual effect. She "claims" that the Fed is done doing QE. I don't think anyone believes that. A large correction would destroy many a boomer's retirement. I think once the market starts to head south, repatriation of money overseas will be a certainty as well for a cheap fix to the corporate debt issue. The rich will get richer while the middle class glides along on stagnant GDP growth. The conservatives will then pat themselves on the back as a result of their victory.
What I am curious to know is what the fate of real estate will be. It is vastly overvalued with signs all over that the every day dude is getting more strapped. Yet, if the market implodes, that capital will have to flow somewhere. As interest rates rise, housing price should fall and the enormous government debt will become even more untenable so Yellen really can't substantially raise rates. My view is that the Fed should do nothing and watch the implosion. Ultimately, that will never happen.
In Denver, people are paying 10% over asking just to get a house at this very moment. Given the enormous profits real estate speculators have made, it would make sense for them to unload if there is a tipping point. What is pushing housing price up to such stratospheric levels? I think there will be the answer... I haven't seen a good explanation for this.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/16/17 07:01 PM)
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LogicaL Chaos
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24250988 - 04/17/17 07:14 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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In the OP, Geo says u should have at least 10 grand to invest in a stock portfolio. I dont have anywhere near that much.
I was thinking of buying a couple hundred dollars in stocks in the near future, like 2 or three stocks total. Is this a dumb idea?
-------------------- "What you must understand is that your physical dimension affects everyone in the higher dimensions as well. All things are interconnected. All things are One. Therefore, if one dimension is broken or out of balance, then all other dimensions will experience repercussions." - Pleiadian Prophecy 2020 The New Golden Age by James Carwin PROJECT BLUE BOOK ANALYSIS! (312 pages!) | Psychedelics & UFOs | Ready to Contact UFOs? | The Source on Mushrooms | Trippy Gematrix | Dj TeknoLogical | Fentanyl Test Kits R.I.P. Big Worm || The Start of the Ascension Process was 2020. Welcome to the Next Great Era of Earth 🌎🌍🌏
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: LogicaL Chaos]
#24251035 - 04/17/17 07:57 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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The concern is transaction charges. Let's say there's $7 to buy and $7 to sell and you buy $200 of shares, you need a 7% return just to break even. That's a pretty big edge to consistently beat. I think it would be best to use robinhood, the trading app, which is a simple trading platform without transaction fees. The bigger the amount in, the bigger return. With such a small amount of money, it's unlikely you're going to make a decent amount of money. A small amount is good though to practice--as long as it's substantial enough, relative to you, that you feel like the money is real. Consider the difference between a $50 poker game vs. a $5 poker game and how that effects your betting. You want your trading to be your best decisions rather than throwing caution to the wind on speculative bets because the money is a small amount.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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LogicaL Chaos
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24251139 - 04/17/17 08:59 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Ah i see.
So u woild argue that a thousand dollars is the bare minimum for buying stocks?
Or what would be a good minimum for a newb besides 10 grand?
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: LogicaL Chaos]
#24251202 - 04/17/17 09:25 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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I would rarely put anything less than $1500 in a single purchase. If you are buying a diversified ETF, you could have that $1500 as your minimum. If you are buying individual stocks, you should strive for at least 5 individual companies in different sectors.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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LogicaL Chaos
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#24252230 - 04/17/17 05:48 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Ok, i guess i was close.
$1500 invested doesnt sound too bad.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24252695 - 04/17/17 08:03 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
All We Perceive said: Yellen raised rates so she has room to move when the ceiling starts coming in and wisely did so while the Trump camp was hawking an increased interest rate environment as the better. Plus, a .25% increase in the face of history were interest rates where multiples of where they are now has minimal actual effect. She "claims" that the Fed is done doing QE. I don't think anyone believes that. A large correction would destroy many a boomer's retirement. I think once the market starts to head south, repatriation of money overseas will be a certainty as well for a cheap fix to the corporate debt issue. The rich will get richer while the middle class glides along on stagnant GDP growth. The conservatives will then pat themselves on the back as a result of their victory.
What I am curious to know is what the fate of real estate will be. It is vastly overvalued with signs all over that the every day dude is getting more strapped. Yet, if the market implodes, that capital will have to flow somewhere. As interest rates rise, housing price should fall and the enormous government debt will become even more untenable so Yellen really can't substantially raise rates. My view is that the Fed should do nothing and watch the implosion. Ultimately, that will never happen.
In Denver, people are paying 10% over asking just to get a house at this very moment. Given the enormous profits real estate speculators have made, it would make sense for them to unload if there is a tipping point. What is pushing housing price up to such stratospheric levels? I think there will be the answer... I haven't seen a good explanation for this.
The Fed has now hiked 3 times, while it's not much it's still symbolic, you might be correct by suggesting that the Fed would reverse course and cut rates while starting some sort of QE 4 program, but maybe they have something else in mind, time will tell.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/deep-state-creating-another-crash-1929
Some are suggesting they're going to end up hiking until it starts the snowball effect, either way it's going to be very interesting.
I have my positions in place, just going to sit back and watch.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#24253081 - 04/17/17 10:21 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: I would rarely put anything less than $1500 in a single purchase. If you are buying a diversified ETF, you could have that $1500 as your minimum. If you are buying individual stocks, you should strive for at least 5 individual companies in different sectors.
I don't see why price would matter if you aren't paying transaction fees. You could throw in $10 into a speculative penny stock and get like 500 shares if you wanted.... I have some stocks with $500 in them haha. My whole portfolio is like 4k with 2.5k in cash sidelined in my account. It's more a hobby than anything.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24260598 - 04/20/17 09:41 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Skechers just destroyed first quarter. Just incredible in this retail environment. Hit 1 billion in revenue for the quarter for the first time ever
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/20/17 09:43 PM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 21, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - V, SQ, TSLA, AAPL [Re: All We Perceive]
#24261517 - 04/21/17 10:26 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Sketchers may have beat on this quarter, but their forward looking guidance was lighter than market participants wanted. If you do believe in the long term story, today's selloff may be an opportunity to accumulate, as they are effectively setting the bar lower for their future earnings reports. However, I couldn't get behind a shoe retailer personally.
The credit card processors have been reporting pretty good earnings, with American Express beating earlier in the week and Visa beating last night. I bought a small position in V ahead of earnings after I saw AXP's report, and also because V was coiling so tightly around its 50 day moving average. There isn't much follow through today on the report, but the stock is still tracking above its upper (and expanding) bollinger band. I would expect the stock to test $100 before too long, and actually added a little bit to my position (September $90 calls) this morning. I would add again if the stock moves above $92 and $93, with a ladder of protective sell stops (currently at $90) that will be revised higher as the stock moves higher and the position becomes larger.
SQ is still hanging tight around its 50 day moving average. This one also plays off of the transition away from cash currency to plastics, and I believe will have more long term upside.
TSLA still consolidating into a high base around $300. I have rebuilt a half-size position here, via June and Sept $300 calls.
I also hold July $140 calls in AAPL, which is starting to consolidate around its 50 day moving average.
SPY still hanging out just below its 50 day moving average, with volatility beginning to squeeze a bit. Would really like to see it start closing above $236 to have more confidence being aggressive on the long side. If it breaks down below $232, I don't expect any of my other trades to work short-term, as such a break in the S&P would indicate broad market selling and end up doing a lot of technical damage to many individual stock charts. We are still hanging in range for now, but the yellow flag is definitely flapping in the wind, and as such, I am keeping my trades relatively small.
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: geokills]
#24270379 - 04/25/17 10:29 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: SPY still hanging out just below its 50 day moving average, with volatility beginning to squeeze a bit. Would really like to see it start closing above $236 to have more confidence being aggressive on the long side.
Well that happened yesterday, and I actually ended up buying some SPY May $237 calls near the close. I watched the major average most of the day without doing anything, expecting it to fall back into the middle of its range. As a general rule, I am hesitant to buy aggressively into a gap higher open, however since the market had gapped higher from a volatility squeeze at its 50 day moving average and didn't show any meaningful signs of selling pressure throughout the balance of the day, it indicated to me that the breakout was more likely to have some legs to continue higher. Today we see a continuation, and I am sitting on my calls with a stop below today's intraday low, which will take me out at a small profit if we experience a reversal, while allowing me to capture further upside if that is what is in store.
I wish I would've been watching NFLX this morning for a quick trade on its breakout to all time highs (new baby and all had me sleeping in instead )... Nevertheless, today's breakout sure looks like a high volume power move and I suspect it still has room to run as it is also breaking out to all time highs from its 50 day moving average, it just got earnings out of the way which shook out some weak hands, and there is good news about a China partnership with iQIYI, a streaming media platform with over half a billion monthly active users. The China news is particularly positive because last year NFLX indicated that they would have a hard time getting into China and would instead focus on the rest of the world, so this is a bonafide upside surprise. I missed the big +6% move today, but I like the story and the technical setup on the stock, so I will plan to edge into some September $150 calls, buying a single contract just now to keep an eye on it, and ideally looking to buy more if we see NFLX retest the old highs at $149-$150 in the next day or two.
A Bank of America analyst came out with a very negative note on TSLA, noting the anticipated losses from the SCTY acquisition that had been brought up in this thread recently (and setting a price target nearly half of where the stock currently sits), and yet TSLA is outperforming the market up +1.6% to the S&P's +0.57%. Gotta love that! Stocks that go up when bad news hits are the types of stocks you want to be in. I suspect this is on news that the company has been hinting that production on their price-friendly mass market Model 3 will be moving forward ahead of schedule. There is still some resistance overhead, but if the stock closes near the top of its range today, I would expect a continued run into its earnings report slated for May 3rd.
Gold... ouch.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: geokills]
#24274671 - 04/26/17 10:46 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Eh whateva. TLSA is smoke and mirrors. I don't short but if there was one stock I would short it that would be it. That and LULU. And Sears which is on the way to bankruptcy but somehow people don't sell Whenever there's a downtrend in gold, the bears come out to play. The truth is that due to the ballooning national debt, the federal reserve cannot raise interest rates without having to print a ton more money to pay interest and accelerate inflation. Gold will prevail--just wait and see.
The golden cross is right around the corner for GLD and if GLD holds, it will occur below the stock line. If that's not a strong bullish signal, I don't know what is. In other news, FCX swung to a profit on the quarter with significant headwinds at the Grasberg mine. If that's not crushing it, I don't know what would be.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: All We Perceive]
#24285112 - 04/30/17 08:04 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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"Beware of the PE expansion cycle"
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: qman]
#24285243 - 04/30/17 08:59 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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He makes some excellent points.
"Sell in May, and Go Away"
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: qman]
#24286471 - 05/01/17 11:02 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Nice video qman... There is no doubt that aggregate PE ratios are at historically high levels, and that as with most things economic, there is a cycle here that should be respected. Nevertheless, one would be shooting themselves in the foot if they try to forecast the market in a manner that leads to an "all in" or "all out" strategy. The fact of the matter as evidenced by the price action in front of us, is that all of the excess liquidity from worldwide easy money policies is contributing to the inflation of the market. Unless you have some skin in the game, you are missing the boat.. even if that boat is ultimately destined to hit an iceberg. The savvy investor would keep in mind that boats typically have life rafts, and while those rafts may not be numerous enough to save everyone on board, those who are mindful of the risks and stay vigilant via risk management, should be able to keep their shirt.
My point being, unless you are operating a hedge fund, retail investors such as ourselves can effectively manage our risk through position size and stop loss orders. It requires both patience and diligence, but with that, you can ride the momentum to make some money along the way. So long as you continually reevaluate and adjust your stop levels, you will be taken out before you are crushed, and you will have caught a piece of the action for your benefit.
Case in point, NFLX up 3.5% this morning, SQ up 3%, AAPL up 2%, TSLA up 4%... and now I'm raising my stops.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: geokills]
#24286523 - 05/01/17 11:38 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Nice video qman... There is no doubt that aggregate PE ratios are at historically high levels, and that as with most things economic, there is a cycle here that should be respected. Nevertheless, one would be shooting themselves in the foot if they try to forecast the market in a manner that leads to an "all in" or "all out" strategy. The fact of the matter as evidenced by the price action in front of us, is that all of the excess liquidity from worldwide easy money policies is contributing to the inflation of the market. Unless you have some skin in the game, you are missing the boat.. even if that boat is ultimately destined to hit an iceberg. The savvy investor would keep in mind that boats typically have life rafts, and while those rafts may not be numerous enough to save everyone on board, those who are mindful of the risks and stay vigilant via risk management, should be able to keep their shirt.
My point being, unless you are operating a hedge fund, retail investors such as ourselves can effectively manage our risk through position size and stop loss orders. It requires both patience and diligence, but with that, you can ride the momentum to make some money along the way. So long as you continually reevaluate and adjust your stop levels, you will be taken out before you are crushed, and you will have caught a piece of the action for your benefit.
Case in point, NFLX up 3.5% this morning, SQ up 3%, AAPL up 2%, TSLA up 4%... and now I'm raising my stops. 
"retail investors such as ourselves can effectively manage our risk"
That's so true and that's why it really doesn't matter where the stock market goes from here for people that are heavily involved in the action.
Personally, I don't want to be involved in any of the potential upside action that might be left in this overextended market, it's just not worth it to me. Can the NASDAQ go to 7000 from here? Yes, but I don't need that extra 17% move with all of the potential downside risk.
My plan will most likely be to play it from the downside, that's where the real money will be made in my opinion. The key is patience, short sellers have thrown in the towel the last few months, they have covered and don't want any part of it, those are the things I'm watching.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2017 - Market breakout - NFLX [Re: qman]
#24291136 - 05/02/17 11:04 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Gotta agree geokills. FB is my largest position and is literally straight up. I would not be surprised to see it hit $200 this year. The market doesn't make a lot of sense these days but one thing is clear--the trump administration loves high stock prices and they will push policies which push it higher. The big banks seem like a sure bet as well. Either they get their interest rates or they get the banking deregulation bill. At least one will happen. From what I've read today, there are enough votes to pass the banking bill. I have some gold miners as a backstop so it kind of balances out. There is huge blood due to the GDXJ clusterfuck and I'm going to pick up some shares probably in a couple of weeks in some quality juniors.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 4, 2017 - SQ, TSLA, NFLX, V, AAPL, LGND [Re: All We Perceive]
#24294585 - 05/04/17 09:23 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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SQ blows away earnings, up +11%. TSLA stinks up the joint, -6%. Going to hold the SQ (common stock) and start selling calls against the position.
After my stops were hit on TSLA, I'm left holding a single September expiration $300 call. The stock has fallen to a preliminary support level (the very steep trend line that began in December of last year), but the stronger support which I would expect to be tested is the prior resistance level that the stock had been banging its head against over the last three years... somewhere around $270-280-ish. I have a few bids hanging around that level. Not interested in getting aggressive on today's selloff, since the S&P is still trading sideways at the top of its range and TSLA likely needs to trade sideways for a while or fall back down to a stronger support level before it can resume an stronger uptrend.
NFLX, V, AAPL and LGND are my favorites right now. The latter being a big short squeeze candidate (trades on low volume, there is a huge short interest and the stock has been forming a pretty tight base between $100-$110 that it just started to break out of).
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for May 4, 2017 - SQ, TSLA, NFLX, V, AAPL, LGND [Re: geokills]
#24300041 - 05/06/17 02:25 PM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 17, 2017 - Big Break [Re: qman]
#24326541 - 05/17/17 09:03 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Finally, the long awaited selloff rears its head. Liquidated the vast majority of my trading portfolio this morning, but added to some longer term calls in AAPL as the stock trades down to $150. Also starting a small position in NTES at $280. The former has a big upgrade cycle ahead of it with the 10 year anniversary of the iPhone, and has been seeing major growth in its services division. The latter is a Chinese company breaking through its 50 day moving average (re-testing the breakout level today) that reported good earnings and shouldn't be materially affected by whatever catastrophe results from the death spiral that the Trump administration seems to find itself in.
This is a pretty major selloff though, so I would not be buying aggressively today. On balance, I reduced my exposure by about 80% this morning. The big problem here is that the market has been buoyed on continued hopes that Trump will be able to push meaningful tax reform through Congress... but if he gets impeached, that ain't happening! Even if he does manage to stay in office, the guy has done a great job of alienating his base so his agenda will face headwinds regardless.
Heavy cash, the only positions I have on the books outside of my long term index holdings are in AAPL, SQ, AMZN and NTES.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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