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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
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SKX did not pan out like I had hoped as it plunged through the 27.75 support and more recently, through the 20 day moving average. Going to back burner this one and wait and see. LB continues its descent with next stop at $42.75. LB continues to make a profit--more unique in today's sector condition--and I like the victoria's secret and bath and bodyworks brands. There is truly blood in the streets on retail. I'm going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the tide to start to turn and enter.
In tech, I entered a position on TASR after reading about it all weekend. Chart looks bottomed with strong support at $22 after a hefty pullback from 30 due to increased expenses largely related to sales and R/D. I like the growth story here with the bodycam / evidence.com ecosystem. Strong management, great balance sheet. Seems to be making the right moves. I like. Good political tailwinds I feel here. Continuing to watch FSLR which is in a screeching crash and burn, currently sitting at $26.23 with a cash/share price of $18.79. Going to enter a position around $25 if it ever gets there, which is the next support line from April 2014. FSLR has an excellent track record in its technology and is pretty much betting the farm on the series 6 solar panel set to unload in 2018. I anticipate that the stock price will move as it gets closer to the unveiling as speculators move in and I'll unload in the 30s and wait for the numbers on the series 6 compared to chinese competition.
Regarding mining, gold continues to make a comeback. Kirkland Lake gold crushed earnings recently. I expect the other miners to do the same when they report at the end of the month. I also have a small position in FCX on a bet that the Grasberg mine issue will resolve favorably for the company. I don't think either the Indonesians nor FCX want protracted arbitration and I anticipate that they will strike some sort of deal which works for both sides which will skyrocket the stock. FCX is finally making the right moves and I am impressed that they managed to unload their disastrous oil venture.
Regarding VLRS, I am happy to report that I am up 6% after my very recent entry. I expect to see further gains here by year end as the stock is still diverged from the recent peso/usd correction.
Long: TASR FCX KLGDF IAG AUY VLRS
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Telsa now has a bigger market cap than Ford's or GM's. I'm not sure how that can be possible. Valuations seem way out of whack here.
I've been holding GM for a couple of years now, and it mostly does dog shit, but it just doesn't seem possible. Tesla moving 15,000 cars a quarter and GM moving 550,000.
I picked up some more Ruger today. It had a weird 5% bounce up yesterday on high volume and then back down today.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Ruger announced that they had repurchased 5% of the outstanding shares in the last QUARTER!.
They also don't have any long term debt. This is a value investor's wet dream.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
Last seen: 7 months, 4 days
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VLRS reports it is continuing to grow today. Up 12%. Not bad not bad for a couple of weeks.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
Last seen: 7 months, 4 days
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: Ruger announced that they had repurchased 5% of the outstanding shares in the last QUARTER!.
They also don't have any long term debt. This is a value investor's wet dream.
who isn't doing buybacks? this has value trap all over it... declining revenues with a republican president. I'll check back in if Trump loses next election and scoop shares on the cheap for a ride. nothing is more reliable than the conservative will to buy guns when a democrat is at the helm. I'll be dropping my next sack of loot into facebook.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Good point!
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
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Quote:
All We Perceive said:
Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: Ruger announced that they had repurchased 5% of the outstanding shares in the last QUARTER!.
They also don't have any long term debt. This is a value investor's wet dream.
who isn't doing buybacks? this has value trap all over it... declining revenues with a republican president. I'll check back in if Trump loses next election and scoop shares on the cheap for a ride. nothing is more reliable than the conservative will to buy guns when a democrat is at the helm. I'll be dropping my next sack of loot into facebook.
"who isn't doing buybacks?"
So true, when this stock market finally tanks people will wakeup and realize borrowing money to buy expensive shares isn't a sound business decision.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
Last seen: 7 months, 4 days
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
#24225961 - 04/07/17 05:12 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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SKX is dropping like a rock. -12% since I was looking at a buy. A year ago, I would have jumped in at 27.75 on good faith of the bounce. Now, I wait to see what happens. Look at me, becoming a more wise investor. Yellow circle for the entry point I was looking at. Punched through the 200 day moving average and on the ride down to 23.50. Bollinger bands indicate a downward breakout so seems likely it will not get support at the 200 DMA. I still believe that the company is a strong contender to survive the retail downtrend so I will wait for the bottom and buy. Not there yet...
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/07/17 05:13 PM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
#24226214 - 04/07/17 07:10 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
qman said:
Quote:
All We Perceive said:
Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: Ruger announced that they had repurchased 5% of the outstanding shares in the last QUARTER!.
They also don't have any long term debt. This is a value investor's wet dream.
who isn't doing buybacks? this has value trap all over it... declining revenues with a republican president. I'll check back in if Trump loses next election and scoop shares on the cheap for a ride. nothing is more reliable than the conservative will to buy guns when a democrat is at the helm. I'll be dropping my next sack of loot into facebook.
"who isn't doing buybacks?"
So true, when this stock market finally tanks people will wakeup and realize borrowing money to buy expensive shares isn't a sound business decision.
Ruger bought back the stock with all cash. Zero long term debt and a PE below 13 although it was below 12 last week.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: geokills]
#24237418 - 04/12/17 12:42 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Just a note that the S&P is starting to squeeze at its 50 day moving average. It looks like it's hanging on to this key moving average by the skin of its fingernails, but the prevailing trend is upwards, so it is reasonable to expect a bounce here... and because the bollinger bands are tightening right around the 50 day moving average, a breakout in either direction is likely to be fairly strong. Furthermore, because the range is narrow, you can place your stop loss orders relatively close to your entry, allowing you to mitigate risk and potentially take larger positions.
In other words, this is a suitable time to begin to place one's bets, as the risk in either direction is low, provided you use an appropriate stop order. If the trade works in your favor, it is likely to work rather well since price has consolidated for a couple of months, giving time for trader's average cost basises to converge. The concept of cyclical volatility is a very important dynamic to understand if you are going to actively trade the market. Periods of low volatility contract the range of prices paid for a given security, and ultimately give way to periods of high volatility where the resultant move is usually outsized. The difficult part is not knowing which way the move will go, but it is appropriate to infer that the prevailing longer term trend will continue, and in our case, that trend is higher. Not a guarantee, simply an appropriate bias to hold. You will know if you are wrong in your assumption, when your protective stop gets hit and you are kicked out of your trade for a very manageable loss.
On that note, I am adding to some AAPL June $140 calls today. It flirted with a breakout a couple of weeks ago, but has since pulled back toward its 50 day moving average. The upcoming iPhone 8 cycle is expected to be a big one, and there are various rumours of a revamped Mac Pro as well as potential new products being introduced in the not too distant future. Further, AAPL has slowly started scaling back on their use of outside parts suppliers, meaning they are likely bringing this process in house, which can be great for the forward looking profit margins on the products they produce. Recommending partial position stop below yesterday's intraday low of $140. Remaining position stop below 50 day moving average.
I am also jumping into a boatload of SQ June $17 calls and will add to the position if and when it breaks out above $17.60. I have had success with this name in the past, although unfortunately sold out right before their last earnings report (which of course resulted in huge upside). I generally don't like to gamble on earnings reports, and I already had a outsized gain, so I decided to liquidate. However in retrospect, as I believe in the long term positioning for this company, I should have merely scaled back my position to 1/4 or 1/2 size prior to earnings instead of taking everything off the table. Too bad, so sad. Fortunately, the stock has traded sideways for months after its huge breakout (impressive that it did not have a meaningful pull back given the scale of the move), and is now looking to bounce off of its 50 day moving average. Stop below today's intraday low of $16.78.
It is important not to lose track of the major averages when you are trading, in particular the QQQ (Nasdaq) and the SPY (S&P500), as they have both come back toward the bottom of their short-term ranges and are settling into their 50 day moving averages. I suspect, as noted in my introduction, that we will see a bounce that leads to a continuation of the prevailing uptrend; however, it is very important to recognize that if we break through support (which currently on the QQQ is $130, SPY is $233 or if you prefer to follow the main S&P index is 2335), that would be a major yellow flag that should have you reevaluating and even scaling back on all of your trading positions. Subsequently, if the market closes the day meaningfully below those support levels, that is a red flag that should have you exiting all short to medium term bullish positions, and possibly even taking a crack at shorting stocks or indexes... with a protective stop above the intraday high on the day that the index breaks down, as this market has been jiggy and the machine algorithms love to try to shake people out only to violently reverse. So make sure that if you DO get shaken out, your loss will be small. Also note that there is some pretty solid support on the S&P at 2300-2310, so keep that in mind as a potential exit if you do end up shorting on a break of 2335 (which is still plenty of room to make some solid scratch if you are trading SPY put options).
PS. TSLA, which I've been pounding the table on, treated me well in my trading account, but I have exited and will wait for the stock to consolidate before piling back in. Long term, I absolutely love the expansive vision that this company embodies. And it's not directly about the cars either! With its in house solar power manufacturing (especially the solar roof product that should hit the market this year or next), energy storage solutions (battery) manufacturing, and leg up on manufacturing the hardware and compiling the necessary data to produce robust software that can power a worldwide fleet of autonomous vehicles, this company has a tremendous amount of potential. It may look expensive now, based on selling just the electric vehicles they are currently retailing, but the plan to revolutionize the electric grid and the way that we use transportation as a society holds tremendous upside. It won't be without hiccups, as they will need to continually raise capital to realize these expansive dreams, but Wall Street has shown no unwillingness to fund them thus far, so I believe they have a genuine shot at playing a leading role in facilitating a major paradigm shift in both transportation and energy. To view TSLA through the lens of a traditional car maker and compare them to companies like GM or Ford is a mistake.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: geokills]
#24238699 - 04/12/17 08:50 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Gold has finally crushed through 1250 resistance. Up about 14% on AUY and about even on my other two gold miners. Earnings will tell the story if a further upswing is warranted. I was going to take a position in BAC but price action has reflected a probable earnings miss. Trump is again beating the drum that the dollar is too strong and is promoting keeping the interest rate low. I think on a 5 year horizon, banks are where to be but it's a little too early to drop in some loot until future direction is told on interest rates and the economy. Scaling back banking regulation will undoubtedly be unpopular given the recent memory of the financial implosion. I do not think people will be fond of scaling back health insurance subsidies to give tax breaks to the rich. I see generalized deregulation, however, in the cards. I still think that VLRS is a screaming buy at current levels. Hard to find good deals out there. A correction feels around the corner. I would be very choosy about what you buy.
TSLA is without a doubt one of the most overvalued companies out there. It's all smoke and mirrors from Musk. As far as I've seen, there aren't even prices on the rooftop solar and there is no reason to believe that it will even be profitable. Solar City was a dogshit company and now that Musk acquires it, now they are the solar masters? Get out of here..... the naivete of investors will only last so long. Regarding auto, the trend is clearly down and by some miracle, TSLA has avoided the auto implosion seen by the likes of GM and Ford. Nevertheless, competition from Google, Uber, Ford, and others will catch up to them in the world of self-driving vehicles. The real players in Solar - Jinko, First Solar, Canadian Solar know about solar. To imagine that Musk knows fuckall about solar from acquiring a dog is simply laughable. Not to mention that this precious monetary gem via solar rooftop has been in a bear market for well over a year with increasing regulatory headwinds.... I just don't see it.
FB seems a way better buy in tech.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/12/17 08:57 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24239741 - 04/13/17 08:57 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
All We Perceive said: I was going to take a position in BAC but price action has reflected a probable earnings miss.
I would caution against using present day price action to divine a company's earnings results. While there are some cases where a company may pre-announce, or information becomes unscrupulously leaked, an earnings report is legally required to remain a well guarded secret until it is publicly released. For that reason, if I see a company that I believe will be profitable but sells off going into the report, I am actually more inclined to take a gamble on the stock with the idea that the company's earnings will beat expectations, because expectations were so negative going into the release. On the other hand, if a company's stock is being bought up and running higher into its earnings report, I am way more likely to ditch the position, as the expectations of buyers are at such a fever pitch that even if the company beats on what analysts are perceiving as the target profit, the aggregate pool of buyers have already exhausted themselves with expectations of an even bigger beat, a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news". This actually happened to TSLA on their last earnings report. Running higher into the report and selling off on the report, even though by analyst metrics, they beat expectations (a loss of $0.69/share versus expectations of losing $1.19/share).
I don't have an opinion on BAC as a business, but the chart actually looks somewhat constructive since it has fallen back to a long base of support that extends back to December of last year. This has allowed the 200 day moving average to catch up, so even if their earnings do stink up the joint, I would expect to see the stock bounce after the weak hands are shaken out. Of course, I'd probably just buy the XLF if I wanted exposure to the sector, since it is diversified and its chart looks pretty much the same as BAC.
Quote:
TSLA is without a doubt one of the most overvalued companies out there. It's all smoke and mirrors from Musk. As far as I've seen, there aren't even prices on the rooftop solar and there is no reason to believe that it will even be profitable. Solar City was a dogshit company and now that Musk acquires it, now they are the solar masters? Get out of here..... the naivete of investors will only last so long. Regarding auto, the trend is clearly down and by some miracle, TSLA has avoided the auto implosion seen by the likes of GM and Ford. Nevertheless, competition from Google, Uber, Ford, and others will catch up to them in the world of self-driving vehicles. The real players in Solar - Jinko, First Solar, Canadian Solar know about solar. To imagine that Musk knows fuckall about solar from acquiring a dog is simply laughable. Not to mention that this precious monetary gem via solar rooftop has been in a bear market for well over a year with increasing regulatory headwinds.... I just don't see it.
FB seems a way better buy in tech.
Comparing TSLA to GM and Ford is erroneous; GM and Ford are old-world car manufacturers, TSLA is building a vertically integrated technology company that can affect several different industries. You note that competition from Google, Uber, Ford and others will catch up to them in the world of self-driving vehicles. Maybe it will, but the reason why TSLA has a leg up on valuation is because it is already the lead dog in the race. They produce the majority of the world's most reliable sensor hardware for self-driving vehicles, and they are the only ones operating such a large fleet of actively equipped autopilot vehicles (that they actually SOLD to customers, which doubles as both a revenue stream and R&D), which everyday returns more autonomous driving data to the company than all of its competitors combined, thus allowing them to stay many steps ahead in the development of their software and accrual of the necessary miles of data that will ultimately allow for regulatory approval of a commercially operable fleet of autonomous vehicles.
On their SolarCity acquisition, yeah, they probably overpaid. But SolarCity had also been building out its technology stream through acquiring Silevo, a maker of high-efficiency solar modules. True that we do not know the price of the solar roof yet, but if it is anything close to the pledge that "it should cost the same as a traditional roof", the sales are going to be through the roof. Combine all of this domestic manufacturing integration with the political administration's "America first" policies, and it is likely that TSLA is going to continue to receive tremendous incentives helping them move forward on an integrated project that dwarfs the ambitions of its competitors. Even as competitors do enter the space, the scale at which TSLA has already proven itself in conjunction with its impressive ability to raise capital, should allow it to remain the front-runner.
You invest your money where you feel it is appropriate. TSLA is overvalued on present day metrics, but they have a non-traditional plan that requires non-traditional valuation simply because no other company has done what they are trying to do at the scale they are doing it. If they succeed, I would wager their current stock price might remind you of what AAPL stock looked like back in 2007 vs present day.
PS. I am do own some FB, can't argue with that chart, it is a thing of beauty and their ability to quickly add features to their product line that competitors like Snap have rode to their own success, along with their huge market reach, makes me believe they will continue to do just fine.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: geokills]
#24241416 - 04/13/17 07:34 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Yeah, perhaps. Banks are down across the board today even though 2 out of 3 beat earnings. While it beat earnings, JP Morgan reporting -20% in personal and business banking y/y. With Yellen seeming more inclined for interest rate rises, banking seems like a crowded trade. If BAC gets support at 22.25, that will be the 5th test of support in a 5 month period. How long can support hold? If it breaks through, looks like it's going to be going for a long ride. I think next week will tell the story and what the outcome is of Tillerson's trip to Russia will matter. Ultimately, Trump's inability to do anything substantive is proving calamitous for the Trump rally.
I have money sidelined to dump into gold if things go south. Frankly, I would like to see gold retest the 200 day moving average so I can get a nice entry. I'm closely watching base metals as well. If I'm lucky, CLF will touch down in the low single digits. I'm very excited for VLRS to announce earnings. With the peso/usd collapse since the new year and increased numbers across the board y/y, I'm betting it will be fantastic.
Yeah, maybe you're right regarding TSLA. That said, TSLA did not merely "overpay" for solar city; they bought a company literally going bankrupt because Musk's relative was involved with SCTY. For American companies, I think FSLR is a way better bet than TSLA in the solar game. At least FSLR has some background of industry leadership, and truthfully, from what I've seen, the large bulk of solar industry commentators laughed their asses off at Musk's rooftop idea. Local utilities will be a substantial headwind to any sort of societal conversion which borders on magical. On top of that, Chinese competitors are extremely competitive and seem to be outcompeting American companies in the sector. In addition, even if it's true that TSLA is killing it at car making, the auto market is remarkably bearish going forward. How TSLA will deal with this remains to be seen. The bet on TSLA is like going for the best coal miner in today's market conditions.
I do agree re FB. I intend to start a long position in FB at some point in the near future.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/13/17 07:40 PM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24242706 - 04/14/17 07:06 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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TSLA is so overpriced, that it keeps going up. They dilute the shares, and the price goes up! That alone should scream loudly and clearly to anyone with ears that this stock is completely parabolic and there is no reflection of fundamentals anywhere near it.
First, solar is a bust. Period. Let's be clear, I love the idea, but it's not economical without tax breaks. Solar thermal makes a lot more sense but to get plumbers and electricians to work together won't happen.
The "roof" idea is something I haven't fully investigated, but considering Musk thinks we are going to live on Mars I would tend to discount off the get go.
Speaking of government subsidies, the only money Musk has ever made was from hand outs. The solar model fits his business plan to a tee.
SolarCity is a scamming company who lied to customers and has done a lot of financial damage along with physical. The damage done to a roof and the fact that to replace the roof you have to remove the solar stuff then repair their damage first is a far greater financial burden than thinking we could benefit by not building roofs later. Maybe after the lawsuits SolarCity can benefit by doing the repairs. I'm kidding of course. People signed their houses away or agreed to high rates with low money savings to install those systems. There are many many lawsuits coming. Get ready Elon.
FB makes some sense but seriously? That's the best you can come up with for a company to put your money towards? At least it's full on government backed like AMZN which never goes down either. Maybe you are onto something.
Anyway, IF this bloated pig of a market really does start going down, it's gonna drop and hit with a big plop as it hits Main Street.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24242984 - 04/14/17 08:59 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
All We Perceive said: In addition, even if it's true that TSLA is killing it at car making, the auto market is remarkably bearish going forward. How TSLA will deal with this remains to be seen. The bet on TSLA is like going for the best coal miner in today's market conditions.
In my view, the "auto market" is the short-game necessity that can prove the technology that ultimately transfers into TSLA's long-game of a full throttle paradigm shift to the transportation industry. I am a happy newb father as of a week ago, and I would not be surprised if by the time my son is ready to drive a car, kids won't really be looking to drive cars anymore. I don't necessarily believe that the option for leisure driving will cease to exist, but I do believe that our major streets and highways could conceivably become restricted strictly to autonomous vehicle traffic, to allow for reduced congestion, vastly increased safety and less space dedicated to parking facilities. These autonomous vehicles would not be privately owned, they would be part of a huge fleet of cars-for-hire, that would eliminate the necessity of owning your own vehicle. Need to get somewhere? Plug it in "uber-style" and your TSLA fleet driverless car will be there take you where you want to go in no time at all. Even better, enjoy multimedia experiences throughout your ride, beverages and snacks!
Ok, maybe I'm starting to get carried away with the dream here, but if I give it all an honest look, I can't imagine that it won't go this way (regardless of whether TSLA is the ultimate driver of this paradigm shift). Our cities are getting more populated by the day and our current transportation systems are antiquated. I live in Los Angeles, one of the biggest metropolitan areas on the planet, and thank bejeezus that I get to work from home, because I'd waste a good portion of my life stuck in traffic if I had to commute! It only gets worse, unless things change. Part of TSLA's long game is seeking to create that change.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: geokills]
#24245689 - 04/15/17 05:49 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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I was reading some of the horror story reviews of Solar City where people got their houses liened and pay way more per month than they were for electricity before the install. Your story of not owning your own car but paying for someone else to drive you somewhere (I think it used to be called a taxi) sounded familiar. Solar City owns all the equipment, you pay them for it, they take you to the cleaners the whole time.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: LunarEclipse]
#24247123 - 04/15/17 06:34 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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The market is looking more bearish as time goes on and I think that people are starting to realize it. GDX is in a breakout. Gold looks to be the winner this year. Unless earnings destroy, I don't see the catalyst for the market not stalling back to pre-trump levels. I fully expect VLRS to destroy earnings this week. Y/Y reports look good through the quarter and the peso/usd has fallen quite considerably at the same time. It is now 20 cents off Pre-trump levels when it skyrocketed from 18.31 to 21.95 peso/usd. It current sits at 18.51 peso/usd. I plan to double down before earnings.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/15/17 06:38 PM)
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qman
Stranger

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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24247692 - 04/15/17 10:45 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Record levels of margin debt, not good.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: qman]
#24248598 - 04/16/17 09:35 AM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Thanks for posting this podcast. It's really interesting so far. There are so many bullish indicators on gold... massive debt in consumer, student loans, and corporate, stagnant wages, sky high stock market with sky high margins, plateaued revenues with earnings powered by buybacks, stagnant GDP, implosion of retail, growing geopolitical risk, already ridiculously low interest rates. If you take a look at gold miners, they have substantially lowered their all in sustaining cost since the downturn and they will make a killing in a gold bull run. With no interest rate to reduce, Janet Yellen is going to panic once the margin collapse happens and rush in with QE4, which is going to skyrocket gold. If gold closes above the 4 year downward trend, strap in your seatbelt. It is literally on the line right now.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (04/16/17 09:36 AM)
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
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Re: Stock Update for April 12, 2017 - Market's Squeezing! - AAPL, SQ, TSLA [Re: All We Perceive]
#24249546 - 04/16/17 05:18 PM (6 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
All We Perceive said: Thanks for posting this podcast. It's really interesting so far. There are so many bullish indicators on gold... massive debt in consumer, student loans, and corporate, stagnant wages, sky high stock market with sky high margins, plateaued revenues with earnings powered by buybacks, stagnant GDP, implosion of retail, growing geopolitical risk, already ridiculously low interest rates. If you take a look at gold miners, they have substantially lowered their all in sustaining cost since the downturn and they will make a killing in a gold bull run. With no interest rate to reduce, Janet Yellen is going to panic once the margin collapse happens and rush in with QE4, which is going to skyrocket gold. If gold closes above the 4 year downward trend, strap in your seatbelt. It is literally on the line right now.
"With no interest rates to reduce, Janet Yellen is going to panic once the margin collapse happens and rush in with QE4"
Well, that brings up the all important question, why did Yellen just hike rates with obvious economic weakness in the statistics?
Why is the German central bankers warning about higher rates in the EU and no more QE program? http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/03/ecb-warns-governments-to-get-set-for-higher-rates.html
I'm starting to believe TPTB are purposely starting to pop ALL asset (stocks, bonds, real estate) bubbles. They make money regardless of what happens in the markets, so they might just give it a little nudge and then let nature run its course.
As far as gold/silver, at this point it doesn't matter what central bankers do that this point, they're trapped in a box that is getting smaller and smaller, PM's in my opinion are entering the final stage of the secular bull market, this blow off top in the PM's will be breathtaking.
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