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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #24167789 - 03/16/17 05:30 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)



How much longer can we go without Any significant downturns? I think that when we finally do see a correction it will be a relatively big one. 100+ days without a 1% decline... When it finally does happen people will be fighting to get out, and it will be quite a drop before buyers come back in.

The fed probably would have liked to see their interest rate hike lower equity prices, but the exact opposite happened, and the bubble keeps growing.

I recently bought VIX August $20 calls. Way out of the money, but even a minor correction would dramatically spike volatility.

Also holding a long position in USO that got absolutely crushed last week. I think fears of increased shale production and rising storage inventories are overblown. US production increases will continue, but not enough to offset OPEC cuts. And increased inventories are largely seasonal. The Saudi's talk of not extending the production cuts are really focused on getting higher compliance rates from other producers, especially Russia. I think they will succeed in pressuring the other producers into higher compliance, and the cuts will be extended. $60 oil by the end of summer.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #24179059 - 03/20/17 10:11 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Oil is very speculative.  The US rig count is literally exploding upwards with no real end in sight.  Previously, the Saudis could not compete with American shale; what makes you think they can do it this time?  Interestingly, this time, the Saudis need high oil to maximize profit from the Aramco IPO set to drop by  2018 so their timeline is relatively short.  My guess is Trump brings back the sanctions on Iran which will pressure oil upwards -- perhaps to 60.  I'm going to wait for the durable off shores--RIG, DO, RDC-- to crater and scoop up some shares on the cheap for an easy play at end 2017.  OPEC has been terrible at agreeing on anything since the oil price collapse.  I do not have high hopes that they can actually keep to their plan--especially with rogue states like Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. who have little to gain from cutting output, which realistically does not net a lot of gains anyway, with American fracking chipping away at any reduced output. 

I do agree on your sentiment regarding the markets.  A correction is overdue.  I am positioning in gold miners to reap the benefits.  Currently long IAG, AUY, KGILF.  I am also watching Barrick Gold which seems to be making the right moves in debt reduction.  FCX is also interesting having significantly reduced its debt last year.  The Grasburg mine issue with the Indonesians will really move the stock up or down once it comes to resolution.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24179596 - 03/21/17 06:57 AM (6 years, 10 months ago)

I couldn't disagree more with your analysis of oil, and gold for that matter.  But let's stick to oil.  You point out the high rig count.  The oil inventory is the more important issue in supply/demand.  The inventory is at RECORD levels.  We are awash in oil.  At 50 it's clearly overpriced, how you pulled out that 60 number is beyond me.  Maybe I don't want to know the details of where you pulled out that number.

In any event, this economy is headed for stagdeflation.  We will see inflation in the price of food, not because of fuel costs, but because the ecology is collapsing.  As the ecology collapses, the economy collapses.

Medical costs will continue to rise and be the only thing keeping the GDP from going negative as is the case now.  How that is considered to be a domestic product from people getting sick from being poisoned is another mystery.

This stock market has disconnected from any economic or fundamental ties long ago.  The rising interest rate is now a positive!  It's amazing the spin doctors and what they can do along with endless central bank purchases of equities...


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24179664 - 03/21/17 07:56 AM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
Oil is very speculative.  The US rig count is literally exploding upwards with no real end in sight.  Previously, the Saudis could not compete with American shale; what makes you think they can do it this time?  Interestingly, this time, the Saudis need high oil to maximize profit from the Aramco IPO set to drop by  2018 so their timeline is relatively short.  My guess is Trump brings back the sanctions on Iran which will pressure oil upwards -- perhaps to 60.  I'm going to wait for the durable off shores--RIG, DO, RDC-- to crater and scoop up some shares on the cheap for an easy play at end 2017.  OPEC has been terrible at agreeing on anything since the oil price collapse.  I do not have high hopes that they can actually keep to their plan--especially with rogue states like Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. who have little to gain from cutting output, which realistically does not net a lot of gains anyway, with American fracking chipping away at any reduced output. 

I do agree on your sentiment regarding the markets.  A correction is overdue.  I am positioning in gold miners to reap the benefits.  Currently long IAG, AUY, KGILF.  I am also watching Barrick Gold which seems to be making the right moves in debt reduction.  FCX is also interesting having significantly reduced its debt last year.  The Grasburg mine issue with the Indonesians will really move the stock up or down once it comes to resolution.




"the Saudis could not compete with American shale"

I'm not sure why you would make this statement, you do realize the lower price of oil has destroyed many US shale operations in the last few years?


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24182510 - 03/22/17 08:23 AM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Some US shale companies did go under.  However, "many" is simply inaccurate.  The rig count is now roughly equal to when the price of oil collapsed.  Even if it were true that "many" companies went under, with the rig count the same, I don't think that even matters.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineDr. P. Silocybin
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24184005 - 03/22/17 05:21 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

The Saudis want higher oil prices for their IPO, Trump wants higher prices to maintain job creation and GDP growth, and the fed wouldn't be raising rates if they thought oil was about to crash again. There is a strong coalition for supporting oil prices, they're just working out who does how much. The Saudi's cut more than they promised to in order to show the world they mean business, but now they need to pressure everyone else into higher compliance by threatening to not extend the cuts if they don't get more help. It's just leveraging ahead of their next meeting in may, where I think all of the incentive will be for OPEC to extend the cuts.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #24184528 - 03/22/17 09:09 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Dr. P. Silocybin said:
The Saudis want higher oil prices for their IPO, Trump wants higher prices to maintain job creation and GDP growth, and the fed wouldn't be raising rates if they thought oil was about to crash again. There is a strong coalition for supporting oil prices, they're just working out who does how much. The Saudi's cut more than they promised to in order to show the world they mean business, but now they need to pressure everyone else into higher compliance by threatening to not extend the cuts if they don't get more help. It's just leveraging ahead of their next meeting in may, where I think all of the incentive will be for OPEC to extend the cuts.




I do agree that the saudis want higher oil prices and that Trump would prefer higher oil price.  However, I am extremely skeptical that the FED has any idea what they are doing and I am similarly skeptical that they care all that much about what the price of oil is.  At this point, what oil price does in the short term is anyone's guess.  Oil prices have receded to what they were when OPEC cut production.  Ultimately, if I had to guess, the price of oil will hit mid 60s due to some sort of geopolitical factors by year end. 

I'm still excited about minerals across the board.  There seems to be bipartisan support for infrastructure and inflation is on the rise.  Minerals are still clawing out of a heavy bear market and there are some gems out there with recent pulloff in light of Trump's distance from actual implementation in infrastructure.  I think this is a way more probable play.  CLF is currently at support as an example.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24184541 - 03/22/17 09:16 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
Some US shale companies did go under.  However, "many" is simply inaccurate.  The rig count is now roughly equal to when the price of oil collapsed.  Even if it were true that "many" companies went under, with the rig count the same, I don't think that even matters.




I admit I was unaware of how much lower these US shale companies have reduced their cost of production just in the past 3 years, incredible.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-21/how-opec-lost-war-against-shale-one-chart


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24184556 - 03/22/17 09:26 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

All We Perceive said:
Some US shale companies did go under.  However, "many" is simply inaccurate.  The rig count is now roughly equal to when the price of oil collapsed.  Even if it were true that "many" companies went under, with the rig count the same, I don't think that even matters.




I admit I was unaware of how much lower these US shale companies have reduced their cost of production just in the past 3 years, incredible.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-21/how-opec-lost-war-against-shale-one-chart




Indeed.  Fracking technology is increasing at a dramatic rate greatly increasing efficiency.  A big problem for OPEC was that once the well is drilled, the continued operating costs are minimal so the frackers have no incentive to shut off--unlike offshore--and that drove price even lower.  However, the shelf life for a well tends to be relatively short.  Some argue that if the Saudis had kept the oil flowing for another couple of years, it actually would have damaged American Shale.  Now, shale is much more durable to price dips than previously due to increased efficiency.  It certainly helped that the banks helped super leveraged frackers continue on with lending lifelines which helped them push through the downturn.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24184558 - 03/22/17 09:26 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)



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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24184573 - 03/22/17 09:36 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

Decidedly not.  If oil turns south again, my guess is there will be blood in the streets in energy.  Natural gas is also turning south as well.  If oil continues its downhill slide, I'm going to start entering energy in small buys.  Solar has already cratered with a substantially revised downward outlook from CSIQ.  FSLR is at something like a 5 year low.  I'll be watching JKS and FSLR closely--definitely best in breed in the sector.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24184584 - 03/22/17 09:45 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

What's your guys take on VLRS?  Mexican value airline that got crushed by nothing more than Trump's statements about Mexico and the cratered peso.  Beat earnings estimates the last 4 quarters in a row.  Will surely benefit from a decreased oil price.  There is pretty much no chance that Trump will push through his ridiculous border tariff given his quick backpedaling on the issue.  Seems like a steal.  Your thought?


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24184592 - 03/22/17 09:48 PM (6 years, 10 months ago)

The peso is again closing in on where the dollar/peso was pre-trump...  stock has hardly moved.  seems like an insane bargain.  Passengers +14% y/y... seems like a solid company....


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (03/22/17 09:51 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24197429 - 03/27/17 03:46 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

VLRS doesn't look too bad technically, although it has been in a downtrend.  It has stabilized from a big February selloff, volatility has squeezed and now appears to be breaking out of the squeeze to the upside, while also poking out above a negative trend line that begins at the late October highs.  Just based on the chart, it seems like it's likely to test $15 in the near future (+10% from the current price), but there is some significant resistance at that level.  If it breaks through that, the next resistance levels I see are $17, $20 and finally the all time highs near $22.

I would caution that forward looking earnings estimates on VLRS do not appear to be very attractive.  However, that can also mean that there simply isn't great coverage of the stock and the bar is set low, which would allow the company to have an easier time beating the low estimates and then seeing the stock benefit from reactive upgrades.  Their airline fleet is relatively young, and foreign exchange pressures have been one of the major drags.  All in all, doesn't seem like a terrible entry, but I would keep a sell stop below $12.50.

I would also continue to point people with a long term time horizon towards TSLA.  The stock has stabilized after earnings, reacted well after announcing a dilutive secondary share offering, will begin shipping lower cost Model 3 sedans this year, as well as taking orders for their solar roof product as early as next month.  I really think this company has the potential to revolutionize our electric grid, make a big splash in the conventional auto market, and ultimately be one of the first companies to run a fleet of fully autonomous vehicles-for-hire as a service, since their fleet of autopilot equipped vehicles has already logged close to 1.5 billion miles of data, with increasing amounts of relevant data available to refine the product as more of these cars hit the road.  They are simply way ahead of the curve with game changing technology and financing that provides for impressive growth.

In general, the market isn't looking too hot right here right now, after having moved higher on the anticipation of positive legislation, selling off and the S&P barely able to hang on to its 50 day moving average today.  If the Fed keeps tightening and we don't see quick progress on tax reform or deregulation for businesses, I think it's going to be pretty hard for the S&P to keep marching higher.  I am mostly flat, closed out 1/3 of an oversize call option position on the VIX, holding nothing else but some TSLA calls and SPY puts (sold 2/3 of my SPY puts on Friday and will be looking for an opportunity to reload).


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24197524 - 03/27/17 04:16 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

What are the dates on the SPY puts?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: qman]
    #24197584 - 03/27/17 04:50 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

Been day trading around a tranche of April expiration $236 SPY puts.  Sitting on a small placeholder position now, didn't take any action today although I should've sold 'em this morning on the gap down (I decided to go back to sleep however, as I'm west coast time and have my first kid due to be born inside of two weeks, so I want to enjoy the opportunity for rest while I have it :wink:).

If the SPY pushes back up into the $235 area, I plan to roll my April SPY Put placeholder position to May expiration, and keep an eye out for a rollover at the SPY's 20 day moving average.  If I catch the rollover early, I would add aggressively with a stop right above the moving average (and/or any clear resistance as dictated by the price action), which would morph into a ladder of partial position stops if/as the trade works in my favor, which would be placed above high volume price clusters and/or clear short-term downtrend lines.  I would take some profits with an initial target of $230 on the SPY, and really tighten up my stops on the remainder of the position if SPY were to get down to $225.  At that point, the 200 day moving average comes into play, and I would definitely expect a bounce or at the very least, a period of consolidation.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24198307 - 03/27/17 09:35 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

May be true regarding TSLA... the Solar City acquisition was very... odd.  As a potential investor, makes me want to stay away.  Solar City was at best, struggling and more realistically, headed towards bankruptcy.  With Musk suddenly touting Tesla as the iconic solar vendor, makes me very suspicious of the company overall.  Overall, TSLA continues to hemorrhage money.  If I was going to throw caution to the wind for a tech stock, I would go for FSLR, which I must admit looks attractive at $25.60.  With their war chest of cash and series 6 around the corner, risk seems right.  JKS also looks good on the chart.

Scooped up some VLRS at 13.15.  I agree--the chart looks quite lovely. 

I've been watching retail closely.  The firesale prices are getting better and better.  Going to be watching LB around $42 for support.  I've also been watching JCP, which has been crushed.  Just turned a profit recently for the first time in a while with a relatively new CEO at the helm.  Bizarrely, priced below Sears which has stated that bankruptcy may be imminent.  I like the turnaround story here.

Market does look shaky... with the health care bill failure, up too went the tax reform.  Ultimately, I am very skeptical that the border tax will pass.  I'm surprised the idea is even still being discussed with the poor PR it received previously.  Retail will benefit greatly from this misstep.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (03/27/17 09:37 PM)


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24201340 - 03/28/17 11:07 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

VLRS closed today at $14.11 on heavy volume.  Not bad for a few days.  $15 is right around the corner.  JKS is ending a symmetrical triangle with reducing volume which has consolidated over the past few months.  looking for the breakout this week.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #24202668 - 03/29/17 01:35 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

Just a quick note that AMZN and AAPL are breaking out of volatility squeezes.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2017 [Re: geokills]
    #24203715 - 03/29/17 08:14 PM (6 years, 9 months ago)

Take a look at this bad boy...war chest of cash, increasing revenues y/y, excellent balance sheet, has fallen about 40% from the 2015 high.



Substantial growth in the international sector...  we'll see if 27.75 holds.  Was on the verge of a breakout before some asshole analyst trashed it.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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