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Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: All We Perceive]
#22887603 - 02/10/16 01:04 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Purchased more GPRO today, 140 shares at $10.68. That was just some cash hanging around in my Roth. I think I'm done now, let it ride.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
#22888019 - 02/10/16 03:11 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Got into a little bit of size with FB yesterday, I had originally unloaded some calls on their earnings spike for a tidy profit and decided to reload yesterday with common stock, April $95 calls, Sept $100 calls and even sold some Feb $85/$95 bull put spreads for $1.50 credit. These trades require that FB stay above yesterday's intraday low of $96.82. If the stock moves closer to $110, I will be letting go of the April $95 calls and will be selling short dated (weekly) calls against the common stock as the opportunity presents.
Still holding SWHC common and short puts. Other than that, cash is king/this market sucks. Been spending more time working on the house... and skiing. 
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ZippoZ
Knomadic



Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
#22891193 - 02/11/16 09:44 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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wow, the DOW is jumping off a cliff today, hasnt been this low in a while.
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: ZippoZ]
#22891227 - 02/11/16 10:01 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Meanwhile, gold is up, oil is down, the 10 year treasury yield is way down... Definitely not an indication of economic strength. Best to stand aside and make sure you cut your losers indiscriminately.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
#22894277 - 02/12/16 01:15 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Keep in mind tho that if everything continues to shit the bed, the next fed meeting will probably indicate no interest rate hike and then stocks will, at least, have a dead cat bounce
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Bambi]
#22894472 - 02/12/16 03:33 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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I think The Fed is going to reverse course and do another round of QE.
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Shins]
#22895073 - 02/12/16 09:26 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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God, I hope not... but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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geokills
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Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: Bambi]
#22895334 - 02/12/16 10:50 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Posted on CNBC yesterday:
Quote:
Interest rate futures see next Fed move being a rate cut
"Following another round of financial market turbulence, fed fund futures contracts don't see the Federal Reserve raising rates until at least February 2018 and in fact are pricing in a small likelihood of a rate cut."
Sold $103 calls against my FB common @ $1.06 a contract this morning, which expire at the end of the day. Up 81% on those, with FB below the strike, but if it manages to close at or above $103, I'll be happy to get called away as my basis is $98.43, so net of the premium I took in, I'd be looking at a 5.7% return on this position within a week's time. The other calls noted in my previous post are up around 8%, and I will hold onto those over the weekend, as FB is still technically in an uptrend (check the weekly chart), and has pulled back to a decent albeit somewhat choppy area of support.
Likewise, SWHC maintains its longer term uptrend and is at its 50 day moving average with volatility contracting. Not a bad place to be building a position in this name either. For a conservative entry (and conservative is pretty much mandated if you want to survive a market such as this), one might consider selling March $20 puts @ $0.75. That would allow you to pick up shares with a basis of $19.25 if the stock is below $20 at March expiration, although frankly I doubt it will be, so odds are you'll just keep the premium.
Lastly, I did take a little bite out of BAC via April $9 calls. This is a short term trade and I'm looking for upside to around $12.50ish, although I would expect the stock to pin at $12 today.
Smoke 'em if you got 'em. 
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: geokills]
#22896891 - 02/12/16 06:18 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Posted on CNBC yesterday:
Quote:
Interest rate futures see next Fed move being a rate cut
"Following another round of financial market turbulence, fed fund futures contracts don't see the Federal Reserve raising rates until at least February 2018 and in fact are pricing in a small likelihood of a rate cut."
Ugh this makes me sick... Just let the markets correct already. This fake propping up is not going to benefit anyone in the long run
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: Bambi]
#22897079 - 02/12/16 07:18 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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We haven't had a free/unmanipulated market for a hundred years or so. A sad state of affairs, but it is what it is. Strongly suggest reading The Creature from Jekyll Island, to anyone who is interested how this whole system has become so ingrained in the global economy.
I also wanted to chime in to note that I ended up adding some more SWHC to my retirement portfolio, via June $21 calls at $3.50. SWHC is presently at $22.84, and the breakeven point for intrinsic value on this 126 day contract is $24.50. I have little doubt SWHC will be getting there. FBI background checks are still running at a high level, indicating people are still buying a lot of guns. What with all the chatter about government regulation, no doubt that's fueling the rush to purchase. I would expect SWHC's next earnings report to be impressive (due in approximately one month).
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Bambi]
#22898623 - 02/13/16 03:14 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said: God, I hope not... but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.
They have no other choice. It's all they can do or let the whole thing unwind.
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Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: Bambi]
#22898626 - 02/13/16 03:17 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Hey geo, you seem to be pretty informed about the corruption of the monetary/banking system, why don't you ever come over to the political forum and help us fight the socialists who blame capitalism?
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: Shins]
#22900413 - 02/13/16 04:15 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Shins said: Hey geo, you seem to be pretty informed about the corruption of the monetary/banking system, why don't you ever come over to the political forum and help us fight the socialists who blame capitalism?
Heh, only so many hours in a day my friend. Must choose my battles carefully.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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wesley90
Stranger
Registered: 04/14/03
Posts: 170
Last seen: 5 years, 10 months
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: geokills]
#22900429 - 02/13/16 04:20 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Long QCOM, I really like them at a 9 forward P/E and 4.5% divi.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for February 12, 2016 - FB, SWHC, Interest Rates [Re: wesley90]
#22902092 - 02/13/16 11:21 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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The P/E is reasonable, but if it weren't for the dividend I probably wouldn't touch it. Right here right now, if you just want to sit on something with a nice yield, QCOM doesn't look like a terrible choice for a hideout in a terrible market, but I'd still keep a tight stop at $42.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
#22913240 - 02/16/16 07:17 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
#22914665 - 02/17/16 07:15 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Check out the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This is the dark pool that the treasury secretary runs through the NY Fed (the only fed branch that means a damn) started with the profits from the gold confiscated then sold at much higher prices back in 1934. Oh my how that money has grown into a beast that can suck up those T Bonds being sold by foreigners and down the hole, or prop up anything to make a buck or to keep the petrodollar safe. It's all for us, to keep us safe.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22915032 - 02/17/16 10:07 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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GPRO over 20% in two days. Up up and Away!
Anyone else making 20% after 30 days in this market? Ok, I'm sorry that was just mean.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
#22915038 - 02/17/16 10:09 AM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Good to see you're in the green on GPRO Mojo, now make sure you don't overstay your welcome! I see the stock is up handily again today, and I would definitely set a stop below today's low to lock in at least some gain in the event the stock reverses, and continue to move your stop up as the position continues to move in your favor. Alternatively, you could consider covering your common stock by selling out of the money calls, for example sell the $13 calls expiring Friday for $0.30. I believe you said you had 500 shares, so you could take in an extra $30 x 5 = $150 for allowing someone the opportunity to buy your shares at $13 at the end of the week. Mind you, if that happens, you'll also make the $0.31 spread between the current price and the ultimate $13 sale price, in effect netting +4.8% from the current print. Now of course, GPRO might be above $13 on Friday and you'll miss out on any gains above that level... but if it falls back, you still achieved +2.36% for selling the time premium. Food for thought anyway.
I flipped out of the BAC calls I bought on Friday for a tidy profit and bought back some SWHC puts I had shorted a month ago for about a 50% gain on both. The SWHC puts were on the $24 strike and had been heavily underwater most of the time I held them. Since I already own so much common that I am heavily overweight this issue, I decided not to risk having to buy another basket of shares at $24. Time decay worked in my favor alongside its recent pop, so I'll take the obligation to buy more shares off of the table, and utilize that buying power on something else, should the opportunity present.
Still overweight FB, via common, calls and a bull put spread. The $85/$95 BPS is already at 99% profit (expiring Friday), the calls are up about 20% and the common is up 7% (+1.3% from shorting out of the money calls against the common that expired worthless last Friday).
We are entering into inflection point territory on the S&P (looks a whole lot like the late October selloff )... a close above 1950 would put an inverse head & shoulders pattern into play, that should test the 2000 point resistance level, where I would expect the advance to stall out. So for nimble traders, I could see an additional longside push above 1950 as appropriate, so long as your expectations are capped and you keep in mind the probability of a pivot back to the downside around the 2000 level.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
#22916112 - 02/17/16 03:42 PM (7 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mojo said: GPRO over 20% in two days. Up up and Away!
Anyone else making 20% after 30 days in this market? Ok, I'm sorry that was just mean.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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