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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: ZippoZ]
    #22805570 - 01/20/16 10:45 PM (8 years, 10 days ago)



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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22806311 - 01/21/16 08:02 AM (8 years, 9 days ago)

Barclay's OIL ETF released this press release today too

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/01/21/barclays-oil-etn-is-completely-disconnected-from-commoditys-price/


Quote:

“Due to the current market dynamic in the sale by the issuer of ETNs from inventory, there are likely to be continued fluctuations in this premium if strong interest from exchange participants in purchasing the ETNs continues. …

The secondary market premiums for the ETNs have been volatile, however, and investors should not assume that the ETNs will continue to trade at a premium in relation to their intraday indicative value.”




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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts] * 2
    #22807279 - 01/21/16 02:32 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)















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InvisibleJollyMan
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #22807739 - 01/21/16 04:42 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

Anyone have a list of super volatile stocks under a dollar per share, ive been looking at (FREE) quite a while and it jumps all around and im waiting for a good time.


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22807930 - 01/21/16 05:38 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

I am down pretty good right now, but have bought and sold ERX multiple times. It's 3x leverage on energy - heavy oil.

I am not that good at this, but like reading this thread. I mainly just use a small amount of money to "play" around with, because I like it better than the casino.


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #22807933 - 01/21/16 05:38 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

Today it ended up 9.47% pct! Makes up for a severe loss early this week. Kind of fuN!


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InvisibleMojo
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #22807978 - 01/21/16 05:54 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

Anybody keeping an eye on GoPro?

It's taking a beating for not meeting sales estimates.  I feel like its falling into levels of irrationality. 

The company has no debt, and they have consistently built equity and free cash flow since the IPO.

For me it comes down to weather the brand is durable, if the company survives, which I imagine it will (hard to go bankrupt with no debt...), I think it could have a significant upswing long term

Anyone?


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
    #22808559 - 01/21/16 08:14 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

I think volume has peaked for this slide. I suspect lots of people are covering and it will bounce up a good clip tomorrow and for a few days next week. I'm hoping the snow storm in the east drives up a little more volatility tomorrow, but it will do what it does.


GoPro hasn't brought any other products to market and lower cost competitors are in every display window. Their sales are slowing in this holiday quarter, and they are a bit of a one trick pony.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
    #22808735 - 01/21/16 08:54 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

Quote:

Mojo said:
Anybody keeping an eye on GoPro?

It's taking a beating for not meeting sales estimates.  I feel like its falling into levels of irrationality. 

The company has no debt, and they have consistently built equity and free cash flow since the IPO.

For me it comes down to weather the brand is durable, if the company survives, which I imagine it will (hard to go bankrupt with no debt...), I think it could have a significant upswing long term

Anyone?




Yeah, their market is fairly saturated at this point IMO, once you hit 1080P recording which they did a year or 2 back, there isnt much need to go higher quality with a new model. All of their highly durable older models are still working fine.

Ive got one of these, and its great, but my computer cant handle editing anything over 760P, and their new roll out of a lighter smaller camera, honestly, kinda useless.


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PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: ZippoZ] * 1
    #22809207 - 01/21/16 10:56 PM (8 years, 9 days ago)

Yeah i think gopro is a lot like build a bear.  Not much growth potential.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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InvisibleMojo
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22810426 - 01/22/16 09:58 AM (8 years, 8 days ago)

Welp, I bought 500 shares of GPRO at $10.98, I guess I just felt like gambling a bit..

First of all, I'm looking at this from the value school of thought.

From my perspective: I'm looking at a company that has grown it's revenue, EPS, and Equity year over year and has no debt...  The stock is selling below it's Graham number per share valuation, and it's assets alone are worth about $5.40 per share...

I feel like the company has a durable brand, and taking a que from the Buffet/Munger school of thought, I think the brand is a more valuable asset than the stock reflects..  For tech people, or someone like me who researches every product I buy extensively and often makes a compromise for a better price, the market for these camera looks saturated...  But for people who don't know tech, the people out there mounting five of these things on a surf board, the people who actually create content that people want to see...  These people are influenced by the brand, and for good reason.. Even though GoPro is more expensive it is still an industry leader with 4K options and 1080p x 60fps options...

I have a good friend who is a mountain biker, she doesn't know anything about tech.  For people like her, she's going to ask for a GoPro as a gift, because GoPro has brand presence..  If her spouse gives her some cut rate camera she is going to be disappointed..  And not even necessarily because GoPro is better, but because it has a brand moat..

Someone who asks for an Apple computer for Christmas is going to be disappointed with anything but an Apple, not because Apple is necessarily better, but because they want a fuckin Apple.  You dig?

As for GoPro being a One Trick Pony, that is my biggest concern...  But it's up to the company to deliver innovative solutions that lead to growth..  I don't know what the future holds.  This is reminiscent of when I bought Netflix in 2011 for a measly 9 bucks a share; they hit a big slump, lost a large portion of their customer base, everyone said Netflix was only good at one thing, Hulu was offering the same thing for free and with Amazon getting into the game Netflix was done for..  Netflix has grown tenfold.  Back then, no one could foresee its future success in producing Original Series...  It’s up to the company to come up with those solutions..  And given that the CEO of GoPro has lost a large portion of his net worth over the past year, I don't think anyone is going to be putting more effort into this idea than him…

I did NOT make this post to try and convince anyone to buy GoPro, I just wanted to lay out my philosophy behind the buy, for my own piece of mind and posterity.


Edited by Mojo (01/22/16 10:07 AM)


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InvisibleShins
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22810776 - 01/22/16 11:48 AM (8 years, 8 days ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
Yeah i think gopro is a lot like build a bear.  Not much growth potential.





There are many go pro imitations coming out now for way better prices.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Shins]
    #22810857 - 01/22/16 12:06 PM (8 years, 8 days ago)

Graham would roll over in his grave on the thought of buying a stock that IPO'd 18 months ago.


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InvisibleMojo
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22810889 - 01/22/16 12:17 PM (8 years, 8 days ago)

Yea I know..  I realize it's risky territory.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Mojo]
    #22825478 - 01/25/16 11:58 PM (8 years, 5 days ago)

I sold the bounce on Thursday, and it was a nerve racking couple of days over the weekend. I kinda came to terms that I took too much risk and might lose it all.

But then oil keeps sliding over night and China is down about 5.5% as of right now. I think I did the right things, but sure would love to see the CAD hit some fresh lows :datass:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22828048 - 01/26/16 07:39 PM (8 years, 4 days ago)

Love the comic strips, gave me a good laugh! :lol:

GPRO could be OK for a countertrend bounce, at least you can set a hard stop at $9.90 and mitigate your risk.  But there is a reason the thing has been killed, as has already been covered... it's a small mountable camera folks!  Well timed and well marketed in the marketplace, but not a revolutionary product by any means.  Wall Street pays for accelerating growth potential and plain ol' growth potential, in that order.  Stocks with decelerating growth tend to get murdered (even if they may still be growing).

Anywho, market is mayham.  I haven't placed a trade in a couple of weeks and I'm sleeping like a baby :biggrin:.  It looks like we could see a move back to 1950 on the S&P pretty easily, but quite a bit of damage has been done.  I would expect any throwback to stall out somewhere between 1950 and 2000 on the S&P, at which point I would look to reload on the short side.

Haven't been glued to the markets though, so my opinion is birds eye view from a flying armchair at best :wink:

I'll leave you with a portion of a missive Dan Fitzpatrick of StockMarketMentor.com fired out a couple of days ago that I got a kick out of (sign up for his free trial if you trade, he extends a good deal of analysis and wisdom):

Quote:

It is my choice to look at the volatility and see it as energy that has a high likelihood of enticing me to feed off that frenetic energy and start pushing buttons and banging the keyboard. You've probably seen the dynamics between two or 3 dogs when they meet for the first time. One is a low energy, calm dog that's pretty friendly, another is a skittish, timid dog that's probably been traumatized in some way, and the last dog is an aggressive, dominant dog that is always just one growl away from whipping up into a frenzy of energy, action and biting. Before you know it, all the dogs are feeding off the collective energy of the pack and they ultimately start rolling around in a ball of confusion, gnashing, barking, scratching, running, jumping, and biting again -- always biting.

This outcome comes from the same dynamic that we deal with during volatile times in the market. The aggressive dog starts flinging around stocks because the tension gets his emotions going, and this action starts sucking in the other dogs until they're all buying and selling like crazy, and this cycle of buying and selling creates its own energy, and the energy grows in strength and intensity. Ultimately, the energy cannot last forever, and traders get tired. Most are bleeding and confused from the "fog of war". They look at their account and see that their balance is not exactly what they had thought it would be -- let's just say they have a bit less money to manage. So they go through their trades and find themselves saying, "Hmmmm. I thought I made money on all my $TWTR quick flips. Sheesh. I didn't know I lost that much." And the daytrading I did on Netflix when they reported earnings wasn't the best, but I thought that I did ok. Well, apparently not."

The problem is that times of high volatility will elicit reactions from you that, if you stopped a minute and considered the various aspects of the trade from a risk:reward perspective, you wouldn't make the trade. You would see the risks involved, and you'd shy away. But because stocks are moving so fast, you don't have the time to consider the trade. So you plow ahead with predictable results.

I've been doing this long enough to see volatility for what it is -- a bunch of fighting going on between some aggressive bulls and some mean bears. They are really going at it! And when you see that in nature, what would your tendency be: To wade into the fight and start trying to slap the bull's butt and beat the bear's ass? Or would you find a safe perch out of their line of sight, but through which you could observe them? And if you were able to observe them without getting involved, you could wait. Wait. Wait. And wait until they have just about killed each other and are done fighting (volatility has peaked and bull and bear don't want to fight anymore). They are beat up, tired, grumpy, and very injured. Their emotions are frayed and frazzled.

Now, after watching that very entertaining fight, you decide it's time for you to do some work. You track the bull easily due to the trail of blood. When you find it, you just walk up to it and shoot it in the back of the head, killing him instantly. He didn't even know what happened. Your work is nearly done. No you retrace your steps and track the bear...truly an angry cuss. Well he's been severely gored and just trying to get back to his bear cave where he can rest for awhile. But you've beat him to the cave and are waiting with a very sharp spear. He sees you and starts charging at you -- if you can call limping with blood soaked paws and a raspy, rattly growl that reveals the punctured lungs suffered at the bull's thrusts of his horns. So the bear is weak, and you just push that spear into his chest. The bear couldn't bear it anymore. Thud.

Now, you've got enough meat to last a long long time on these two trades. And all you did was sit back and watch the action...and take action at a time that was opportune for YOU. You waited until the odds favored you. You didn't let the volatility of the moment suck you in because, even though you were hungry, you realized that jumping in to fight with a bull and a bear would probably result in YOU becoming the meal rather than you EATING the meal.

So look at volatile markets as markets that are going to yield good opportunities...but not in the same timing as the violent moves are occurring. IT will be in the aftermath, when extreme levels get broken.

Wait for it. Watch for it. and then Act on it. You'll see it only if you watch for it.




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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
    #22832403 - 01/27/16 10:30 PM (8 years, 3 days ago)

Got pretty much dominated in a re-entry on SUNE trying to trade a -20% day.  Ended up going down about 25% more well below my entry point in august.  Rode it back up to break even on news that david einhorn got a board seat which i view as a very strong positive.  Finally someone with some skin in the game at the levers.  SUNE heavily downgraded their Q4 outlook about a month ago so in theory they should make it okay.  Dave tepper's lawsuit regarding blocking the vivint solar acquisition dropdown to TERP presents a huge unknown.  If the judge gives tepper the injunction and SUNE cant drop it down and has to pay for the shitty company themselves, hello chapter 11.  Im going to reevaluate in 2 weeks and ride this upward tide for the moment.  Almost certainly will dump before the Q4 report and wait to digest before possible reentry.  Pretty exciting stuff.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22836370 - 01/28/16 09:47 PM (8 years, 2 days ago)

Why do you keep trying to make SUNE work?


Terrible financials






Get out now. Told you this same thing 2-3 months ago


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InvisibleAroundtheSon
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: elax420]
    #22839540 - 01/29/16 06:04 PM (8 years, 1 day ago)

Remember ERX@!!!:heartpump:


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: elax420]
    #22843217 - 01/30/16 04:34 PM (8 years, 9 hours ago)

Quote:

elax420 said:
Why do you keep trying to make SUNE work?


Terrible financials






Get out now. Told you this same thing 2-3 months ago




Once the VSLR deal goes through and it drops down to TERP, it will go up.  Just watch and see.  Dave Tepper's / Appaloosa's lawsuit against SUNE does not have merit.  There are certainly debt considerations--no doubt about that; however SUNE remains able to raise capital when needed.  Definitely not a sure play but I think SUNE will make it through.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (01/30/16 05:07 PM)


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