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Ferris
PsychedelicJourneyman



Registered: 03/12/06
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Stock Update for July 2, 2008 - BDK, NUE [Re: goobler]
#8624459 - 07/12/08 06:37 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I lost quite a bit as well. I guess I had it coming off the performances I was showing before
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for July 12, 2008 - AUY, FCX, NOV, SWN, DVN [Re: ZippoZ]
#8626917 - 07/12/08 08:26 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Capatalistc nomad said: geo, i havent seen an update in a while, how are you handling the downturn of the markets today?
Sorry for goin' MIA on ya'll... took a week to do a 1600 mile circuit up to Oregon and down through San Francisco, back into Los Angeles. Saw some family, friends, and one of my favorite bands, Ratdog (three times)! 
Because of all this, I wasn't very active over the last week; however I did make some changes to my portfolio. All in all the market has been very ugly, and it doesn't seem to pay to be agressive so I'm just going to be biding my time looking for opportunities. I may lose some capital in the interim (and indeed, I have!), but that is OK as the majority of my investments I aim to hold for 1 - 3 years.
- Swapped out of Yamana (AUY) and into Freeport-McMoran (FCX). This was done because of a report from Yamana that showed production results were a bit weaker than expected, indicating a lowering of full-year guidance with respect to expectations. Though Freeport does not have nearly as much exposure to gold, I believe there will be continued strength in copper, and Freeport is cheap given its leadership position in the copper market. The company has been a stable producer of valuable metals, and global growth (particularly in China) should continue to paint a beneficial supply/demand imbalance which will benefit FCX. Some market mavens have suggested that FCX could be a takeover target as well.
- Attempted to purchase more National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Southwestern (SWN) and Devon Energy (DVN). I placed limit orders in these names at $77, $40.50, and $105 respectively. Unfortunately, none of these targets were hit and my positions have not grown, though the stocks did rebound from their lower levels. All three of the stocks still look good to me, and I would like to buy more of them on any continued weakness.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/12/2008:- 13.8% Cash
- 7.5% Nucor Steel (NUE)
- 7.1% CPFL Energia (CPL)
- 6.9% McDonalds (MCD)
- 6.9% Altria (MO)
- 6.4% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.2% Transocean (RIG)
- 6.1% Schering-Plough (SGP)
- 5.9% Deere (DE)
- 5.6% Walmart (WMT)
- 5.1% Freeport McMoran (FCX)
- 4.4% Southwestern Energy (SWN)
- 4.1% Raytheon (RTN)
- 4.1% Petrobras (PBR)
- 3.7% Apple (AAPL)
- 3.5% Devon Energy (DVN)
- 3.0% National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Stock Update for July 12, 2008 - AUY, FCX, NOV, SWN, DVN [Re: geokills]
#8630554 - 07/13/08 06:35 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I feel foolish for swapping SLW for AUY with your recent update, but then again, you can't listen to everybody.
Here's hoping we both profit.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 12, 2008 - AUY, FCX, NOV, SWN, DVN [Re: AroundtheSon]
#8630966 - 07/13/08 08:00 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yamana (AUY) still looks like a solid long term growth story. But I've been following Freeport McMoran (FCX) since I started investing (owning it off and on), and at these prices it seems to be the better value. Certainly nothing for you to feel foolish about, please remember that I am not a professional, and I am often wrong! If I can be right just slightly more often than I am wrong, well then I'm in the right place.
Keep in mind that FCX is more about copper than gold, so if you want gold, AUY is the better play. I might also suggest looking into Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) as a gold play.
If I had more capital, I'd be happy to invest in all three companies!
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Stock Update for July 12, 2008 - AUY, FCX, NOV, SWN, DVN [Re: geokills]
#8632906 - 07/14/08 10:16 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Look at SLW? I thought it always trailed Gold!
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geokills
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Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: AroundtheSon]
#8634518 - 07/14/08 05:53 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Historical trends do not always hold true, there are divergences in the market, and if you are well informed, you can use these to your benefit as this is where the most money is made. Take for example the historical correlation between oil and natural gas. Historically, natural gas has traded at 1/6th the price of crude oil. However, with crude at around $145, natural gas should be trading at twice what it is currently trading for! This is one of the reasons I have been picking up natural gas related stocks over the last several weeks, as I believe that eventually the price of natural gas will catch up with the run in crude that we have seen. I believe this will be further supported by the US beginning to use natural gas as its fuel of choice, since we have a lot of it, and it is now very cost effective to produce.
I also want to make one more note as to why I swapped out of Yamana (AUY) and into Freeport McMoran (FCX). I noted Yamana's production report came in below expectations, but the larger driver was Freeport's valuation. It has been trading between 8 and 9 times earnings and is expected to have 25% production growth... that gives it a price to earnings growth (PEG) of only 0.34x - which is quite frankly ridiculous, and one of the reasons this company may be taken over. Furthermore, FCX is highly levered to copper, with every 10 cent move in copper adding 55 cents to Freeport's earnings (every $10 change in gold adds about 3 cents to their earnings). Copper is a necessary material for developing nations, and I expect that it will not be coming down in value anytime soon.
Lastly, I want to make a note about my suggested short sales of IndyMac (IMB), Washington Mutual (WM), and National City (NCC), which I posted in this thread on June 25th (less than 20 days ago). Given it doesn't seem we have too many active investors here, I'd bet no one took that bet - hell, I myself was being too conservative to take it - but if you had... You would now be showing an 87% gain on IndyMac (as the FDIC assumed control of the bank today and shares were halted at 14 cents), a 42% gain on the Washington Mutual short, and a 37% gain on the National City short. It is a little heartbreaking to evaluate the wins I might have had, had I followed my own advice. But I want to point this out so that when I come back and review this journal in the future, I will see that there are times when I ought to have more confidence in my opinion, and perhaps play a little more aggressively. Afterall, I am still young and the time for taking the biggest risks, are when you have a whole life to make up for any failure that may come of them!
To note, I do not believe we are through the financial storm, and I do believe more banks will fail. I am working up the courage to initiate a short sale on National City (NCC), but after having witnessed my missing a 37% move, I am admittedly a little skittish and fearful of being too late to the party. Nevertheless, Nat City has an absolutely terrible loan portfolio, and given the prevailing trends in the financial system, it doesn't seem likely that they will be a survivor when all the smoke has cleared. I still believe this is a good short, now let's just see if I can muster up the integrity to put my money where my mouth is!
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: geokills]
#8634563 - 07/14/08 06:04 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I was happy at the end of the day with AUY.
Got a question though: What is a good target to seek for AUY. I got in at 14.64, and I don't have enough shares to make selling half for profits worthwhile. Said another way, with the small amount of shares I have, it would be advantageous to sell in one press of the button rather than two.
What target should I seek? Opinions, suggestions?
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: AroundtheSon]
#8635019 - 07/14/08 07:59 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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A good target is one that will yield you a profit. As for a specific hard target, I cannot give you one - as I would always suggest trimming your position as it grows in size/value (as you see gains, take them incrementally). In fact, if you don't have enough capital to trade around any given position, I would first suggest that you keep all your money in an index fund until you do! Because if you do not have the ability to buy on the way down and sell on the way up, it will be much more difficult to beat the averages. Buying and selling all at once is much more of a gamble, as no one has perfect timing, and doing your buying and selling incrementally allows you to take advantage of short-term dips and rallies in the market that you simply cannot otherwise predict.
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: geokills]
#8635049 - 07/14/08 08:05 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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True. I looked at shorting the S&P, but it didn't look as fun.
Shame Shame.
Anywho, I am in it for the long haul, so I am not worried about short term profits. It's money that I devoted specifically to this agenda. What is a good return % when dealing with investments...anything better than a CD?
Probably a stupid question in retrospect, but sound advice. Thanks.
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geokills
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Re: Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: AroundtheSon]
#8635094 - 07/14/08 08:15 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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The average S&P500 index return is between 10 - 12% annually. This is why it is easier for new investors, or investors with little capital, to invest in an index fund, as it's already paying out (on average) three to four times as much as any current CD account.
Consider that in order to properly diversify your investment portfolio, you must ideally hold no more than 20% of your capital in any single sector - meaning you'll need to own at least 5 stocks. This is because sectors fall into and out of favor all the time, and often on a whim. Many of the natural gas and materials stocks that I've been looking at over the past months have corrected 10 - 20% in only a week or two! If I had all of my money in those sectors, I would have been absolutely crushed - while the well diversified S&P 500 average would have been better protected from such steep losses since it covers stocks across many different sectors.
In other words, if you don't have enough money to trade around a core position, you probably don't have enough money to be diversified... and if for example you had all your money in Yamana and the central banks start to raise interest rates rapidly and gold takes a sharp correction, you could realistically lose half your money in a very short period of time. It just isn't worth the risk, in my opinion.
Diversification is absolutely necessary!
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs




Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 44,175
Last seen: 3 months, 10 days
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Re: Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: geokills]
#8637435 - 07/15/08 11:46 AM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I love the NOV pick. When I was working in the Oil & Gas industry last year, we dealt with them heavily. They are a powerhouse in the vessel and rig supply industry and I don't think they're going anywhere soon. They're a monster in Houston especially.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Special Comment for July 14, 2008 - Natural Gas, FCX, IMB, WM, NCC [Re: Redstorm]
#8637681 - 07/15/08 12:47 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yea, I've been looking for an opportunity to beef up my position in NOV. As noted last week, I had a buy order in at $77, but it wasn't triggered. I have an active buy order for NOV at $82 today, but I'm not sure if that will get hit either. My basis on the stock is $82.49, so I would like to buy below that level if at all possible. But I definitely want to own more of the name, as it is a principal beneficiary of the frenzied drilling markets worldwide.
As an aside, are you still holding your Sirius (SIRI)? If so, why?
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HeavyToilet
The Heaviest OfThem All


Registered: 08/06/03
Posts: 9,458
Loc: British Columbia
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: geokills]
#8637712 - 07/15/08 12:54 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I'm trying to get into this stuff myself.
I found out from my bank that they charge $395 for a full year, for 50 "equity and/or option trades"(I can't figure out what an option trade is... but I equate this to being 50 stock trades). So that's $7.9 per transaction.
I'm thinking about checking it out... one advantage is that you don't have to pay for a whole year, you pay for the remainder of the year... so since the year is over half over, I'd have to pay less than half that price, and get less than half of the trades. Which would be pretty good for just checking it out.
Does this seem reasonable?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: HeavyToilet]
#8637785 - 07/15/08 01:06 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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I wouldn't take that offer from your bank HeavyToilet, for a few reasons...- What if you don't execute the full 50 trades in the year? Do they roll-over to the next year, or do they expire? If they expire, you end up paying significantly more per trade.
- $7.90 / trade is an average rate, nothing special. ScotTrade has $7 trades, Etrade and TDAmeritrade have ~$10 trades, charlesSchwab offers $13 trades, InteractiveBrokers has some of the least expensive comissions, around $1-2 if memory serves. Most (if not all) of these discount brokers require no maintenance or startup fees... in fact, some of them will even PAY YOU to join, by giving you extra cash for a certain deposit amount, or a bunch of free trades for your first few months. (Ameritrade gave me 500 free trades when I signed up)
- I've found that bank websites typically do not offer a wide array of research tools. I use TDAmeritrade and am very happy with their research and analytical tools. If you want to play it cheap, open up an account with TDAmeritrade and InteractiveBrokers. Use TDAmeritrade for your research, and IB for your actual trading.
PS. Read my first post in this thread if you haven't already.
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HeavyToilet
The Heaviest OfThem All


Registered: 08/06/03
Posts: 9,458
Loc: British Columbia
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: geokills]
#8637862 - 07/15/08 01:20 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Well, one thing is that I was planning on trying it out later on in the year. So I might try it when it's going to cost me $79, for 10 trades. So although they do expire... I probably wont have trouble trading 10 times in roughly a two month period. Also if you trade more than that then it goes down to $6.95 per trade.
I did read the first post, but I can't do interactive brokers, as you apparently have to be American. I just checked TDAmeritrade, and oddly enough it seems to be the same deal. Very strange considering all the other countries they have on there.
I figured I'd see how my bank (CIBC) does with respect to tracking and everything. Plus I have a bank account with them already. I guess I'm just worried and need confirmation that I'm not going to blow all my money. 
PS- thanks a lot for the reply.
Edited by HeavyToilet (07/15/08 01:22 PM)
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs




Registered: 10/08/02
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: geokills]
#8637881 - 07/15/08 01:24 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Nah, I dumped it awhile back. I wasn't real hot on where it was going, plus I have an emergency expense I had to make. I think I more than likely have been wrong in my analysis of SIRI's situation. The more the feet are being dragged on the approval, the less I feel the price will bump when it finally is approved.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Redstorm]
#8638343 - 07/15/08 03:05 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Well anyway you slice it, it seems that there will be only one satellite radio company in the near future. As it stands, both companies cannot coexist in their market, they are getting killed without being able to share programming and especially because the auto manufacturers can instigate a price war between them, as most new subscribers come from people buying automobiles with satellite radio pre-installed!
So it seems that the FCC - which initially imposed a stipulation when the satellite radio operators first started, indicating that there must always be two competitors - are going to let one of them go out of business naturally, so that they won't have to go back on their word by allowing the only two operators to merge legally. It's a little ridiculous, and I'd bet that the lobbyists for "old-school" terrestrial radio are playing a huge hand in the approval process (or lack thereof).
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: geokills]
#8639082 - 07/15/08 05:51 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Wow all you longs must have gotten slammed... I don't see any short sellers in here.
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Terillius
Renaissance Man


Registered: 07/21/06
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: geokills]
#8640166 - 07/15/08 09:59 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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Note to self: Kill myself for ever starting this nonsense. Talk about a bad time to decide to investigate the stock market.
Anyway, I started with Qwest a while back and their dividend is rising as the stock price falls. It's interesting to see how this process works. The dividend is supposed to encourage new investors and stabilize stock price, but it isn't working too well. It's at 9-something percent now, but the price is still falling.
Edited by Terillius (07/15/08 10:01 PM)
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: Terillius]
#8642541 - 07/16/08 01:08 PM (15 years, 6 months ago) |
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What do you mean a bad time?
This is a GREAT TIME to investigate stocks. See you have it stuck in your head that you must always go long into stocks.
You don't even have to play and you can learn what is going on with the markets. These markets today PROVIDE VALUABLE information to new traders. It basically says do not trust anyone on wall street. Companies will lie and do not go against the trend. Sell into rallies!!
Anyway.
It seems as though the majority of the people on this message board have no idea what the hell is going on with money. Its like this is Personal Finance for people who are struggling in life.
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