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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#22678495 - 12/20/15 07:28 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Bot back NFLX and PXD shorts for a profit, but the PXD just kept dropping like a stone so should have waited.
Bot some MRO common 12.69. Oil seems due for a bounce with perhaps a weaker dollar next week and a "surprise" Santa Claus rally. Considering Wall Street gets paid bonuses year end, why would this surprise other than the charts are pointing straight down?
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22682740 - 12/21/15 10:44 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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While it could happen, I wouldn't expect much of a rally into year end. The market has been rough all year, more hedge funds have been failing than anytime since 2008, and thus I would expect to see redemption requests from clients at managed funds, which will in turn force selling in order to pay the clients (Cramer, who speaks from an extraordinary level of experience in this particular area, speculated this almost assuredly played a role in Thursday's and Friday's rapid selloffs - as managers who needed to meet redemption requests blew out positions while liquidity was still high). The second dynamic that works to counter a year-end rally is tax loss selling. Not a whole lot of profits on the books this year for most, I suspect, and thus a good reason to book losses before the year is out, in order to reduce one's tax burden.
Of course, liquidity will be light as we move into this shortened week and finally into year end. With low liquidity, the extremity of short term moves / volatility can pick up, as large buyers and sellers can't find a counterparty to sell to or buy from without moving the bid/ask.
Anywho, I have very little exposure at this point. I bought back my UVXY $35 puts at the end of the day Friday, for $0.05 (sold 'em for $4), and also did some day trading on the UVXY to catch a little extra. I didn't want to hold a lot of UVXY over the weekend, since it moves so fast and the market already had two very strong down days, thus the probability that it would keep crashing wasn't very good. I still have a large position in TRIP and put on a sizeable short term trade in AAPL via Jan $105 calls, as AAPL has been getting killed lately and looks like it's putting in a bullish hammer today - I am expecting a throw back to the $110 level without too much trouble, but that's about it.
All the best, and Happy Holidays!
Edit: JBLU lookin' decent for a quick trade to the upside, bouncing off its 200 day.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (12/21/15 03:54 PM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22683560 - 12/21/15 04:03 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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I want to take another bite out of FANG. Shorted AMZN at 663.
Sold Jan 13 covered calls against 1/2 of MRO for 0.71.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22687181 - 12/22/15 03:40 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Volume is really drying up, not going to be doing too much here, although I did start to leg into some February $205 puts on the SPY, one tranche at $6 & another at $5.65 per contract. I have another open order to pick up more at $4.80. If the S&P gets back above 2070, I will have to reconsider the position, or roll out to a longer dated contract, but the market just feels heavy and I don't see catalysts for a continuation of the uptrend here.
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wesley90
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22723798 - 01/01/16 07:18 AM (8 years, 29 days ago) |
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WOW I didn't see this post before...I trade for a living and am impressed with some of the comments in here, much more knowledgeable than most online forums.
Personally, I have been short AAPL since 118, CMG since 610, and will be shorting UPS next week. BTW, I trade off technicals, been doing so for several years. Also, I am going to be accumulating gold/silver stocks such as ABX,SA, and SLW.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: wesley90]
#22725309 - 01/01/16 06:35 PM (8 years, 29 days ago) |
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Welcome wesley, how long have you been trading? Looks like you got some good entries on your short positions, congrat's. I doubled down on my bearish SPY position, after getting some better fills on my GTC orders for the SPY Feb $205 puts, and I also added a new tranche of SPY March $210 puts on Wednesday. So far, so good, but I am quite leveraged now, so I will be looking for opportunities to lighten up the position this coming week, especially if we get a spike down at the open on Monday.
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wesley90
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22726924 - 01/02/16 06:20 AM (8 years, 28 days ago) |
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Been trading full time for 3 years, been invested for much much longer =)
I honestly think the market is going to see a 20% downward move very soon...by April is my target. There are about 700 oil companies that don't even bring in enough revenue to cover their bond interest payments and I think defaults will cause havoc.
There is a trillion dollars of oil debt at risk and SOMEONE has exposure to it.
Also, I believe the auto loan bubble will come home to roost within the next 2 years, there is no way American's can cover all of those payments. Even if they were able to they wouldn't have any money left over to buy anything else so consumer discretionary may struggle.
I also shorted AMZN @ 692.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: wesley90]
#22734020 - 01/03/16 11:10 PM (8 years, 27 days ago) |
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China is fucked tonight. All those puts on the SPY are looking pretty sweet.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#22734922 - 01/04/16 08:15 AM (8 years, 26 days ago) |
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No kidding! Not a bad feeling to be up over 10% in aggregate on a day the S&P is down over 2%. I've always felt that it's almost as good to be lucky as it is to be smart... and I'll have to attribute this morning's outsized gap down while I'm sitting on a mountain of puts, more to luck than smarts. I closed half of my puts at the open (the SPY Feb $205's), letting the other half (SPY Mar $210's) run, as this looks like the type of selloff that will perpetuate a sustained drop over the coming days and weeks, possibly months. There just don't seem to be any good catalysts for sustained upside momentum with the Fed tightening, still lackluster economic growth around the globe, the average S&P price to earnings multiple at the high end of its historical range, et al. Then again, I've felt this way before and been totally wrong, hence why I took half off the table. To make the bull case (or at least the less bearish case), the S&P is also at short term support, the nice even 2000 level, and tagging its lower bollinger band. So maybe we find some stabilization here afterall...
If anyone wants to take a stab at the long side, SWHC looks like the place to be. LULU is rocking too. I'll be trying to sell January $23 puts on SWHC at $0.75 or better.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22743987 - 01/06/16 12:50 PM (8 years, 24 days ago) |
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S&P takes another leg lower... Oh my. She's gunna be one of those years.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#22745510 - 01/06/16 07:26 PM (8 years, 24 days ago) |
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Trading halted in China again tonight after another 7% drop. I doubled up on puts in the last hour today. Looks like it should pay off.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#22745741 - 01/06/16 08:08 PM (8 years, 24 days ago) |
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I'm honestly pretty stoked and keeping my fingers crossed that we're finally breaking out of the long and agonizing consolidation period that was 2015. I don't care what direction the market is going, as long as it is taking a discernable direction! Sold out of the last of my puts today (after rebuilding the position intraday), not wanting to be greedy. Of course, China opens up with huge losses and halts trading, sending our futures down 1% in short order. Oh well, can't win 'em all... but it sounds like you're going to get a piece of that action, so congrat's on that!
The only positions I have on at the moment are a $655/$660 bear call spread on AMZN that expires next week and a covered call position on UVXY where I sold weekly $34 calls against common, for a $2 premium per contract. Over 90% cash at the moment. Taking next week off to do some skiing in Lake Tahoe, so while I may swing around a few day trades, and possibly start a longer term position in SWHC and/or NFLX*, I don't expect to be doing all that much right here, right now.
*Netflix announced the addition of 130 countries to receive their streaming service, including India, which opens up a lot of room for future growth. I'm thinking it'd be a gift if aggregate market weakness would allow me to build up a position in NFLX with a basis closer to $100, but with this type of company specific news, I would be surprised if it fell back to that level.
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All We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22746327 - 01/06/16 10:32 PM (8 years, 24 days ago) |
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Closed out my position in SUNE for a tidy 35% gain. Shoulda locked on the profits at 80%. Thought it was going to go higher..... stupid dave tepper ruined it with his allegations that SUNE maliciously uses GLBL and TERP as its piggy bank... which it totally does. Seems like the market is setup for a major pullback through 15Q4. One thing is for sure, tomorrow will be a blood bath. Going to keep an eye on ABX and TERP, wait for 4.50 SUNE, 4 FCX, and see what happens with EPE. if we start to catch an oil increase by 2017, could be a good play.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
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Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
#22747316 - 01/07/16 07:49 AM (8 years, 23 days ago) |
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Well, y'all know I sold out of my short $SPY puts entirely yesterday, too bad so sad, but I was up handily so nothing to cry about. Pivoting to some XIV common this morning, stop at $22.50. Also snapped up some June $100 calls on NFLX, with the intent to build position on any meaningful weakness (just had to get a piece now as the story is too good not to). Also picked up some SWHC common, as that stock has been strong as death and the valuation is compelling. Still mostly cash, but dipping my toe in the water. Will look to start reloading shorts on a retest of 2000.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
#22748029 - 01/07/16 11:32 AM (8 years, 23 days ago) |
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That was a short lived attempt at a bounce this morning. Was up nicely... until I wasn't - poof! Booted out of day trades in the XIV and SPY, sold some $24 puts on SWHC to continue building the position I started this morning (intend for this to become a long term holding with a 6-12 month time horizon), holding a very small position in NFLX and considering adding another chunk of calls here at $114, whole lotta cash ready to deploy, but need to see some of this selling settle down first. Market struggling to find its footing, but it's too oversold for me to go short here. Mostly a waiting game and the beginnings of bargain hunting for longer term positioning.
To all the gold bugs in the house, multi month lows have held and look to be breaking out higher. Considering a position in NUGT, likely via selling puts combined with a covered call strategy.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
#22748134 - 01/07/16 12:07 PM (8 years, 23 days ago) |
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Sold half of my Mar 18 SPY puts for a 40% gain. Holding on to the other half until tomorrow.
Fucking crazy week. I never fancied myself a day trader, but goddamnn.
Volume doesn't seem super crazy yet.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
Edited by Ahab McBathsalts (01/07/16 12:45 PM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
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I invested the profits into VXX options for tomorrow's expiry at just at the money.
Getting gambly as fuck.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Call side or put on VXX ops? Tomorrow expiry, yikes, that is ballsy. I also took a higher risk trade, selling $3 puts on SUNE for $0.28 a pop (missed the high of day by a penny). But I'm buying it back now for $0.15, as the company looks like it could go into default after a debt restructuring that is likely to have placed a lot of secured creditors in the already large line ahead of equity holders. Not going to risk holding it overnight, and won't cry about a 46% gain on a 40 minute position. Too bad it was such a small position, would've done better trading the common.
Very tempted to pivot to SPY calls here at the close, but I've been sliced and dice on a few attempts to catch a bounce intraday, and really have no edge with respect to what will come of China overnight. S&P is very oversold, went below its third standard deviation band on the daily today, which is pretty rare. Fully expecting a bounce tomorrow, but don't want to get cocky, so I'll just wait and see.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for January 7, 2016 - Bounce? [Re: geokills]
#22751592 - 01/08/16 08:42 AM (8 years, 22 days ago) |
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Puts of course . Lost my shirt, but it was a very small wager. Got your bounce, but it was quite short lived.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Yeah, major fade all day long. Clearly, not many people want to put on positions ahead of the weekend, what with China opening before our own markets. Volume still seems a little bit lighter than I'd expect, but the VIX is getting up there.
I sold a couple of $28 puts that expire next Friday on NUGT, still lettin' the time bleed out on my AMZN $655/$660 bear call spread that expires next Friday, have a bit of SWHC stock and sold some $23 and $24 calls that expire next Friday (this position is killing me BTW , but it's designed to be a long term investment so I'll see it through), a covered call on UVXY that'll be called away from me today, and a position in NFLX June $100 calls that's also underwater, but not yet full size, my next buy point on these would be around $105 on the common.
So I'm definitely net long right now (and not loving it), but with 70% cash on hand I can weather it. I'll be away from my desk all next week so probably won't be doing much, although I'm sure there will be some wicked opportunities. In the unlikely event I see one, I'll trade via mobile in Kirkwood, in between runs .
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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