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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22627090 - 12/07/15 06:38 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
LunarEclipse said: Short PXD, QQQ, and NFLX.
If this resistance spot on the S&P at 2050 fails, next stop 2020, after that there's a lot of air to the Black Swan dive on this bloated pig of a market.
Closed 1/3 NFLX for 5 point gain holding other 2/3 short. PXD punished 10 bucks today and more likely to follow. Looking to close short at 130 then reshort on a bounce. QQQ just annoying bound to drop soon.
When oil was not even this low in August, the market was WAY lower.
We could see the PPT hard at work today, they really didn't like the S&P being below 2070. Imagine the hate when we retest 1900...
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22629362 - 12/08/15 10:05 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Just wanted to share a portion of Dan Fitzpatrick's morning note today, as it totally resonates with me in this range bound market... Quote:
It's a bit of a Rorschach Test -- Bulls see a market that's about to break out to new highs. Bears see a market that's tired and faltering...where it's only a matter of time (or a Fed rate hike) before the bottom drops out and the August lows are retested [...] When there is this much uncertainty, it's best to watch.
Ultimately, we want to look for capitulation that clears the way for a deeply oversold rebound, like we saw in late August. Despite your wishes, we are not there yet. I know that many are sitting on your hands (or your stocks) and thinking that you've been very patient and should be rewarded. After all, you've sat on the sidelines for a few days. Now, you're itching to be rewarded for your "patience". Memo to you: You're not being patient, you're being overeager and looking for something that isn't there yet.
Stay cool. Stay calm. And stay vigilant. The S&P is still in that trading range, and just might give us a trading opportunity if it bounces off last week's lows. But such a trading opportunity should not be seen as "capitulation". Rather, it should be seen as the market environment that is created by a December that comes on the tail of a very rough year, uncertainty about the strength of the global economy, uncertainty about where the floor in oil truly is, and anticipation of the market's reaction to a Fed rate hike next week (which they now HAVE to do. They've talked themselves into a corner, and a failure to raise rates will destroy any last shred of credibility this hapless bunch still has. They'll hike.).
So let this choppiness play out without getting chopped up.
If that sort of commentary makes sense to you, consider the free trial over at StockMarketMentor.com. I've found the resource very valuable for morning notes like these, daily strategy sessions which cover the general market and a handful of specific stocks, as well as a thriving forum of active traders that is accessible to members only. /plug
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22629573 - 12/08/15 11:15 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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We've been hearing from all the wrong pundits for at least 5 years now that The Fed just "HAS" to raise rates. This September was a fore gone conclusion, until it wasn't. This December is a fore gone conclusion, until it isn't.
I predict that The Fed goes negative long before they raise rates. The walking down the road kicking the can while dangling the carrot on the stick charade will continue for a few months. Then next year after some BS crisis, they have to go negative instead of raising. Oops.
Sure, you get a wicked Santa Claus rally after they don't raise, which of course determines the year end bonuses of all these Stock Market Wall Street types who work so hard all year at their various schemes.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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fluro
Registered: 11/30/15
Posts: 51
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22632799 - 12/09/15 02:22 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Hey all, new poster here. After following the markets for a number of years I finally figured something out: No one knows what the hell is going on.
I do have a few individual stocks but I seem to lean more and more towards indexing as time goes on. Anyone who is actively trading, I wish you all the best, I could not do it personally.
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: fluro]
#22633906 - 12/09/15 12:05 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
fluro said: Hey all, new poster here. After following the markets for a number of years I finally figured something out: No one knows what the hell is going on.
I do have a few individual stocks but I seem to lean more and more towards indexing as time goes on. Anyone who is actively trading, I wish you all the best, I could not do it personally.
I think you are on to something. Perhaps part of that problem is that the people that really know keep feeding the folks on channels like CNBC their usual drivel. Ever notice if some guest dare deviate from the pre agreed script, they are given the short shrift.
I like that thrift makes shrift don't be short or they get short with your air time and get short with you in temperment.
Closed out QQQ short position for a very very small gain at buy to cover 112.47.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22636153 - 12/09/15 09:14 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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So far so good with my little portfolio
Bought 20 rig 12.66, sold at 14.85, current price 13.07. Up 17% Bought 40 fcx 11.38 sold 12.37, current price 6.99. Up 8.6% Bought 28 aro .81, current .32. Going BK. Bought 190 sune 3.55, current 3.96, up 11.5%. I believe this will hit 4.50 by jan 1. There is nice support at 3 and getting better attention and much higher volume. With a better liquidity outlook, green energy coming into vogue, likely solar tax credit extension, apparently discouraging first solar year outlook, and a heavy short setup, this could boom on a short squeeze with this continuing good news. Will reevaluate at the new year
Have about 800 in the market right now... made about 150 off that. 50 went to the broker so i switched to robinhood for free trades. Works well. Just practicin. Its a good way to save as i would be at 0 dollars saved right now... even if i get killed, still money saved as it would all have gone to the bar haha.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
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Congrats man, I'm glad to hear youre doing well at both the market and just saving money in general.
Nice entry on SUNE. I have been kicking a little sad with myself for not buying in at sub $3, but I was waiting for it to be in the $2.teens.
Either way, congrats bud
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
#22639500 - 12/10/15 05:44 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Haha thanks. Yea, i too was trying for the 2 entry.... just missed it... it was at 3.10 and then awoke to 3.35. Was 3.53 before i could buy. Sune is up like 10% again today and huge im aftermarket. Gonna scoop 75 more shares. I think its a bargain still at 4.45.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22642270 - 12/11/15 11:09 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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The technical picture of the market is looking increasingly problematic. Note on the three year chart above, where each candle represents one week's worth of trading on the S&P500, we saw a very steady uptrend for years, creating a series of higher highs and higher lows that repeatedly cycled back into higher highs and, you guessed it, higher lows... until October of 2014, where a warning shot was fired and the market briefly made a lower low (see large green arrows in chart above). This wasn't the end of the uptrend however, as the S&P quickly resolved to a higher high once again, however just barely, after which we've been forced to endure the entirety of 2015 in a brutal sideways chop that hasn't taken us anywhere and has generally been very painful for active traders who rely on a discernable trend to make money. This is a change in character from the prior several years and something I have noted a few times earlier in this thread as a yellow flag warranting caution and less aggressive trading. Supporting this deteriorating market strength is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence graph (see large yellow arrow in chart above), which has been making lower highs and lower lows all through 2014 and 2015.
Fast forward to August of this year (see large blue arrows in chart above), where the long sideways chop has led to a contraction of the bollinger bands, indicating decreased volatility. Those who have read this thread over the years know that I like these volatility squeezes, as volatility is cyclical, and if you can catch an early move that breaks out from a squeeze, it is typically a powerful and exaggerated move (because price is contracted, you can also set a tight stop to limit your losses if the move goes against you). Well we saw an expansion of downside volatility rather quickly with the spike down at the end of August, at which point I started posting here regarding my serious concern about the ability of this market to continue higher, and at which point I was briefly all in cash. Rather dumbfounded by the extremely rapid bounce back, I had no choice but to shift sentiment and attempt to make money on the long side once again, as truly, we should only trade the market in front of us, and the rapid bounce from ~1900 back up to ~2100 indicated some serious buying coming back into the market.
But now we fast forward to the last several weeks, where we have once again entered a trading range, albeit a rather wide one, where we can be down 2% one day and up 2% the next (see large red arrow in chart above). This type of market behavior is generally associated with tops, as there is no real consensus between buyers and sellers in the market as to where price should actually be, hence the whipsaw action. Making matters worse, we see that this latest period of consolidation has failed to create a higher high in the index, by breaching 2135, which puts the multi-year uptrend in question. So to go back to the volatility squeeze analysis, it could be that this throw back to ~2100 that is failing to create a higher high in the index, is in fact phase two of the downward volatility expansion that began in August, and phase three would be a breach of ~1860 (the summer lows), which would then likely cascade to even lower prices.
For those of you who are wondering what the hell I'm talking about with respect to volatility squeezes, here is an excerpt from a post I made on 11/1/11:
Quote:
The Anatomy of a Volatility Squeeze/Expansion

Now of course this is speculative thinking, but it is based on historical patterns. Patterns don't always play out, but when you see a pattern that has repeated itself so often, it is worth taking note and being prepared for history to repeat itself once again. Couple this with the Federal Reserve's increasing rhetoric about raising rates, the crash in oil and lackluster economic growth the world over, and it isn't hard to see that we could very well be witnessing the process of a top being created in a market that has been unreasonably strong for so many years. On the other hand, maybe the Fed does raise but simultaneously makes it clear that they will not raise again until the economy shows drastic improvement, and maybe OPEC does finally cut back on production thereby supporting oil prices to stabilize at a higher level, and those two things alone could propel the market to new highs, let alone further financial fraud--I mean "easing".
Anywho, it's been a nice ride, and I'm sure there will still be opportunities to make money in the market, but those who wish to participate will have to be selectively discerning. The first consideration when trading should always be risk management. The market will always present opportunity, but not necessarily when or where you would like it to. Have patience, be diligent and don't get caught up in your emotions. Just trade the market that is in front of you. Best of luck.
For those who would (dare I say smartly) take some time off, consider picking up a copy of The Creature From Jeykll Island, which is an amazingly well referenced look at a cartel project now known as The Federal Reserve, how it started and how it works... for those who benefit from it, while the majority of the population suffers the consequences.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22642532 - 12/11/15 12:50 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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The Creature From Jekyll Island. It seems I tried to get you to read that for years. Or maybe not. The main thing is you are with "the program" now.
As for a major threat to the world's economy, this COP21 combined with the TPP and TISA makes for a very ugly tax and world control scheme. Hell, you even got the Catholic Church in on it!
The credit market is imploding, as I speak. Deutsche Bank is a canary in the coal mine on the banking side.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22642643 - 12/11/15 01:33 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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I did alright on some currency options I had betting against the CDN dollar as it slid out of sight this past week.
I might look to buy some long term puts on the S&P if we see a nice bounce before the Fed's decision next week.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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elax420
Anal Destroyer


Registered: 10/16/12
Posts: 15,536
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#22646419 - 12/12/15 02:10 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Geokills:
What’s your average yearly return?
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: elax420]
#22646513 - 12/12/15 02:35 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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It's been a wild ride and a long term learning process. In aggregate, I have net ~8% annually, which includes periods where I've doubled my money and a couple of rough periods where I've lost half of my capital. This is why I never hesitate to advocate parking money in the SPY instead of actively managing a portfolio, because it simply is not easy to beat the S&P. I consider my early losses as a sort of "tuition", and have at times asked myself if the effort is worth it. I keep doing it because it is a challenge and I feel that with each new day of experience, I am better positioned to take advantage of exaggerated moves in the market for outsized returns. But when you boil it all down, I've been at this for ten years now and have spent a lot of time on it, without an exceptional return on my time/money. Fortunately, my time horizon is a long one and there is still money being made.
The bulk of my income has been derived from rental property and a business that I ran in the audio industry after dropping out of college.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22646745 - 12/12/15 04:04 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22653593 - 12/14/15 11:13 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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I believe we will see some higher volatility spikes in the near future, but I am also mindful that the market doesn't often move in a straight line and that we are likely to see some sort of snap back rally this week. Since we are seeing a little bit of a bounce this morning, I am hedging my bet by selling some weekly $35 puts on UVXY around $4 per contract, expiring Friday. If UVXY is below $35 at the close on Friday, I will be purchasing shares at a net cost of $31. If UVXY is above $35, I keep the $4 per contract and will look to sell additional puts the following week (unless UVXY has simply shot the moon by then, which would make selling additional puts a high risk proposition).
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22657963 - 12/15/15 09:44 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Let's pray Auntie Janet can get this Santa Claus rally going tomorrow!
Not.
Short PXD, and NFLX.
The vultures are circling.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22658207 - 12/15/15 11:12 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Market is bouncing right up to the short term downtrending resistance on the S&P500. Added some UVXY common stock for a day trade at $31.70. Keeping an open offer on weekly $30 UVXY puts, asking $4.50 per contract. Will likely be positioned more or less neutral by the time the Fed announces tomorrow at 2pm eastern, with a few select longs (TRIP, PANW, MBLY) hedged with my short puts on the UVXY.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber



Registered: 09/24/07
Posts: 10,491
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: geokills]
#22665413 - 12/16/15 10:13 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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SUNE up like 23% today with 110M volume (one third of float) on near certain ITC extension tomorrow. My portfolio is up about 60% since August. There is huge upward momentum in SUNE. With the proposed net metering ruling coming out of California, SUNE's acquisition of Vivent, a residential solar paneling company, seems unexpectedly like an okay play. If SUNE actually hits earnings estimates, a speculative feat given the history, I bet we will see $15 next year. Pre collapse, SUNE was trading at $33 and the company looks more intact at $6.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (12/16/15 10:19 PM)
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
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Re: Stock Update for December 11, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: All We Perceive]
#22665497 - 12/16/15 10:37 PM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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Where's our boy Dr. P?
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Stock Update for December 17, 2015 - A Market Top? [Re: memes]
#22666802 - 12/17/15 09:06 AM (8 years, 1 month ago) |
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I bought some puts on the SPY for Mar 18th after the fed bounce yesterday.
I am keeping my long term holdings in MO, BCE, GM, JPM, enf-to, drg.un-to, but have liquidated my positions in POT and HSE and am up to about 20% cash. I am quite comfortable with these holdings no matter with the daily price and plan to hold them to collect dividends through whatever happens over the next 1 to 4 years.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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