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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for November 2, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22527593 - 11/15/15 01:48 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

I mean I have had a few Finance Classes that were pretty technical.




Walmart looks like a good stock to watch. They are near a 5 year low. Honestly i would look at a company like Walmart as indicative of the market. Since they are the retail king, and people will never stop shopping there, when they are hurting it is merely a symptom of a major illness.
Their Beta is .4 (40% as volatile as the market)  and they are getting creamed on the year.


Interesting times.


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Stock Update for November 2, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22527664 - 11/15/15 02:15 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Nice $570 gap on AMZN that is just about guaranteed to fill...



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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for November 2, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22533244 - 11/16/15 03:40 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

elax420 said:
I mean I have had a few Finance Classes that were pretty technical.




Walmart looks like a good stock to watch. They are near a 5 year low. Honestly i would look at a company like Walmart as indicative of the market. Since they are the retail king, and people will never stop shopping there, when they are hurting it is merely a symptom of a major illness.
Their Beta is .4 (40% as volatile as the market)  and they are getting creamed on the year.


Interesting times.




I thought WMT might bounce off the 57 area to maybe 62 a while back, but it didn't.  They have just WAY too many stores worldwide, it's not just the Wal-Mart stores, but other stores.  Then the China stores, and the full on China exposure.  Also, they have beat up their suppliers to the point that their suppliers are seriously sick of it, and WMT's response is to punch harder...


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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OfflineDiamonds808
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22537277 - 11/17/15 12:14 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

elax420 said:
Quote:

Diamonds808 said:
I've always wanted to play around with a few thousand in the stock market but I'm so uneducated with all this!! Would it be worth it to find someone to "manage my money"?





Get an ETF or buy some bonds.


Geokills recommendation is a good one. The historical return on the market is 12% and buying that ETF means you will just the get what the market gets.




Bonds have really easy calculations are are pretty safe. If you buy a 1000$ bond with a 70$ discount it means your getting a semiannual payment of 35$(*number of bonds owned)


and your getting a 7.5% return. Not bad and super safe.


The market is going have ups and downs and you’re going to have to have patience.

avoid anything less than <bbb




How would I even go about buying "bonds"? I'm a total newbie. Is it just a 7.5% return or could it be more?


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: Diamonds808]
    #22540438 - 11/18/15 05:32 AM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Diamonds808 said:
Quote:

elax420 said:
Quote:

Diamonds808 said:
I've always wanted to play around with a few thousand in the stock market but I'm so uneducated with all this!! Would it be worth it to find someone to "manage my money"?





Get an ETF or buy some bonds.


Geokills recommendation is a good one. The historical return on the market is 12% and buying that ETF means you will just the get what the market gets.




Bonds have really easy calculations are are pretty safe. If you buy a 1000$ bond with a 70$ discount it means your getting a semiannual payment of 35$(*number of bonds owned)


and your getting a 7.5% return. Not bad and super safe.


The market is going have ups and downs and you’re going to have to have patience.

avoid anything less than <bbb




How would I even go about buying "bonds"? I'm a total newbie. Is it just a 7.5% return or could it be more?




Considering blue chip stocks are paying about 2% a year, and gov bonds about 3% a year, anything with 7.5% return will be a "junk" bond.  No return is guaranteed, and "it" could be a lot less.

The junk bond market particularly in the oil sector is about ready to seriously tank.  The shale producers have several companies likely to go bankrupt, and their stocks and bonds becoming worthless.

Buyer Beware!


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: Diamonds808]
    #22566160 - 11/23/15 11:55 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

AMZN hits an all time high today.


Told ya that stock is a winner.
Quote:

Diamonds808 said:
Quote:

elax420 said:
Quote:

Diamonds808 said:
I've always wanted to play around with a few thousand in the stock market but I'm so uneducated with all this!! Would it be worth it to find someone to "manage my money"?





Get an ETF or buy some bonds.


Geokills recommendation is a good one. The historical return on the market is 12% and buying that ETF means you will just the get what the market gets.




Bonds have really easy calculations are are pretty safe. If you buy a 1000$ bond with a 70$ discount it means your getting a semiannual payment of 35$(*number of bonds owned)


and your getting a 7.5% return. Not bad and super safe.


The market is going have ups and downs and you’re going to have to have patience.

avoid anything less than <bbb




How would I even go about buying "bonds"? I'm a total newbie. Is it just a 7.5% return or could it be more?





That was a fictitious bond to give you an example of how bond pricing works.


Junk bond is anything below BB rated stock. AAA is the highest (Us government is only AA) and i think anything below c is insolvent.

Buyer beware is always the case in the market. Return and Risk are positively correlated. You are literally getting paid by taking on risk. Its all about your person choice of how much risk you are okay with.


I disagree with Lunar though, 2 percent is fucking easy. Thats like a C/D, and T-bills are way lower than 3% right now.

Like i said AMZN is fucking killing it right now. i dont feel like doing the math but their stock is up nearly 200% on the year.


Here are some ETFs with high yields.
YTM on 3-year SPHD is 15.72% B+ rated.
http://www.thestreet.com/topic/19421/etf-top-ranked-fixed-income.html


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Offlinefivepointer
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22582889 - 11/27/15 03:24 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

The biggest risk of bonds is that interest rates rise.  Bond prices fall as a result.  Not a problem if you hold to maturity, but a big problem if you need to sell them early.  Low coupon bonds will get crushed if rates rise.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: fivepointer]
    #22582966 - 11/27/15 03:52 PM (8 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

fivepointer said:
The biggest risk of bonds is that interest rates rise.  Bond prices fall as a result.  Not a problem if you hold to maturity, but a big problem if you need to sell them early.  Low coupon bonds will get crushed if rates rise.




The other risk with a bond is risk of default.  You may not get a chance to wait until maturity.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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OfflineGeorgeWilliams
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse] * 1
    #22593236 - 11/30/15 03:24 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

However, trading stocks seems a bit easy than bonds due to the availability of central exchange. But you can trade the bonds safely by signing up a reliable broker who can assist you. It’s completely your choice whether you want to go for full service broker or an online broker. If you want to acquire an online broker, then visit
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiiYpgspgz6qOZMQfEK_LOw , it includes all popular broker details with professional reviews to aid you


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: GeorgeWilliams]
    #22594960 - 11/30/15 02:29 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Best first post in the history of this site.


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22595202 - 11/30/15 03:35 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

elax420 said:
Best first post in the history of this site.




no way, Ive seen some gems


--------------------


"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Stock Update for Dec 1, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
    #22598697 - 12/01/15 10:51 AM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Anyone have any thoughts about whether the S&P is stalled out, or the beginning of a bear market?

Increased volatility, lower highs since May, weak earnings and lowered expections on already high valuations. I am certainly having a hard time adding new money to this market, but have been picking up a few short term canadian bonds via the XSB and adding a bit to some global REITs, but I can't find many compelling companies out there.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for Dec 1, 2015 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22598972 - 12/01/15 12:12 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Too hard to tell whether this is the beginning of a bear market.  If the Fed doesn't raise rates, money has no where else to go for a viable return.  Even if they do raise rates, they probably won't be raising them very much.  While I would expect the S&P to stall out here, as we are approaching the highs (i.e. resistance) and the economic backdrop is not very compelling, I also expected the S&P to make be making a more meaningful decline after the summer breakdown, but instead it bounced back to all time highs rather quickly.  So what I guess I'm saying is that I'm rather agnostic about the whole thing.  I have a handful of positions on, but I won't hesitate to cut them and I am by no means an aggressive buyer here.  As for what I do currently own, it's all tech and oil:  AAPL, PANW, FB, NFLX, TRIP, MBLY, SLB, CVX, ESV.

Edit: Stopped out of 2/3 of AAPL, 1/2 of FB, 1/2 of ESV, and all of SLB.


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Edited by geokills (12/02/15 06:23 PM)


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for Dec 1, 2015 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22599572 - 12/01/15 03:00 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said: or the beginning of a bear market?






Thats my opinion.


What goes up must come down.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for Dec 1, 2015 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #22600281 - 12/01/15 05:46 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
Anyone have any thoughts about whether the S&P is stalled out, or the beginning of a bear market?





https://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/22005693/page/1/fpart/1

The supporting arguments for an imminent bear market have grown stronger and stronger since i made the above thread.  I've just been too busy with life to give enough fucks to continue to document my thoughtstream in there


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #22608601 - 12/03/15 12:13 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

The ECB didn't come through with as much easing as anticipated, with the Fed ramping up their hawkish tone going into their December rate decision.  Low volume end-of-year effects and it would seem the 2015 highs for the S&P, mid and small caps are probably in.  I was stopped out of the remainder of my oil positions today, and partial position stops were hit on pretty much everything else.  Took half of my PANW off of the table today voluntarily for a 68% gain, as it looks to be putting in a short term blow off top, and I will look to re-enter ~$175.

In aggregate, I am at 75% cash, although I did add to TRIP today via March 2016 $80 calls.  TRIP's pop this morning is being retraced now, and I will need to see the stock move above $85-$86 to get really aggressive, but it has been consolidating above all of its key moving averages for a month and a half, and if volatility squeezes here with all the moving averages right on top of each other, that is typically a recipe for an explosive move one way or the other.  TRIP is the only meaningful position I hold at this point, with small placeholder positions in AAPL, FB, MBLY, NFLX and PANW.  MBLY is looking particularly puke-alicious today, but I'm holding 2017 calls that don't expire for another 414 days, and it's not a big position to begin with, so unless the stock breaks below $40, I'll stick around as I think the auto industry is moving quickly in the direction of autonomous and/or tech-assisted features, and MBLY is at the forefront of that sector niche.  Make no mistake though, it is priced for perfection and all the moving averages are now trending downward, I wouldn't be buying it here, just mentioning it since I need to explain to myself why I'm holding an issue that looks as ugly as this one does.

The only other thing I'm really interested in, would be to take a bite of AMZN if it can come down to ~$600ish, or alternatively if it trades sideways long enough for the 50 day moving average to catch up to ~$650.  S&P testing its 200 and 50 day moving average here after two strong down moves.  Might be good for a few quick flips to the long side, but until we see how the market reacts to the Fed decision, I wouldn't be placing any big bets.


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #22608862 - 12/03/15 01:26 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

What is your opinion on oill related stocks?

I agree that we have seen the highs for the market, but I also think we are near the lows in oil. I figure that increasing oil prices will carry oil stocks (for instance XOM) through any drop in the market overall.

Thinking of taking a position in XOM at around the $75 or lower mark for a long term hold. I would be adding on a move lower than $70 if it is oil price related.


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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
    #22609073 - 12/03/15 02:31 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

In my view, it all depends on what comes of the supply side issues.  Will the big middle east players start cutting back on supply?  If so, then oil stocks should be buyable.  If they don't, and we don't see any meaningful pickup in the economy (and I don't believe we will), it could be a while before these stocks are able to continue moving higher, especially since they are already well off of their lows, even as oil itself is hovering around its low.  So XOM and related stocks seem to be anticipating/pricing in an oil bottom, but the underlying oil price isn't yet reflecting that this is the case.  Thus, I am cautious here.

If oil holds $40, I am relatively comfortable owning the stocks related to the sector.  If $40 breaks, I would not touch the sector until the underlying commodity price stabilizes.  An integrated player like CVX (or XOM), sporting a reliable dividend yield, would be my preferred area to hang out in, but that said, I got shaken out of my SLB, CVX and ESV positions over the last two days.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #22609852 - 12/03/15 05:59 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

Short PXD, QQQ, and NFLX. 

If this resistance spot on the S&P at 2050 fails, next stop 2020, after that there's a lot of air to the Black Swan dive on this bloated pig of a market.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22612874 - 12/04/15 01:10 PM (8 years, 1 month ago)

What a difference a day makes, talk about a whipsaw :whoa:.  I thought we might see a bounce, but not the bullish engulfment that is unfolding before us today.  Piled back into AAPL and added a little more to TRIP.  Also picked up some Jan $30 calls on JD.  Forget what I said about the 2015 highs being in, this market looks like it wants to set a new record before the year is out and tech is leading the way.  I still have a hard time loading the boat here, but I will try to play the swing for what it's worth.  Down to a 59% cash position (from 75% yesterday).


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