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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #22333631 - 10/04/15 05:10 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

pretty cool documentary, although a little on the fluffy side, about high frequency trading

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/wall-street-code/


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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
    #22347467 - 10/07/15 08:28 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

FCX is up 14.35% since I acquired it on 9/11.  What's your feel on this stock?  Seems like Carl Icahn is forcing their hand to make some good changes like dumping its debt ladden oil sector.  Up today on huge volume now that Icahn has gained a couple board seats.  Given the remarkably bearish copper expectations from the analysts, I expect FCX to beat Q3 earnings estimates.  If Q3 beats estimates for the second quarter in a row, if the FED remains silent on rate increases given the poor employment number results last week, FCX could really move.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22352306 - 10/08/15 10:18 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Now up 18.30%.  With buyout rumors circling at $20/share, the Indonesia mine deal finally worked through, and talk of jettisoning the oil component, FCX is going to blow through $15 as long as Janet Yellen can keep her mouth shut about a rate increase.  Upswing on huge volume.  Things are really looking up on this stock.


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22352580 - 10/08/15 11:42 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

commodities have been getting MURDERED For about 3  years now, FCX obviously a huge miner, was faced with this, and their stock, like every other miners stock, shit the bed. make no mistakes, the previous cycle was a commodities super cycle, we saw iron ore hit $190/ton, today its sitting around $60/ton and in over supply. this is the case for a number of miners, gold was up to 1900/oz.

Commodities were over valued, which caused a rush into the market for junior mining exploration and production companies, many who financed projects with hopes the prices would stay high. This flood into the markets caused production to surge, prices to drop, and companies to fail and go out of  business, billions of dollars at a time.

after years of this correction, and price deflation, some are calling for a new surge. Here is a great article by mining news digest which calls for the end of the 'commodity rout'. obviously people are playing FCX's stock as they are well positioned and fairly well diversified amongst the mining world.

However, if it was me, I would be cautious, the DJI has been bouncing like a yo-yo between 16 and 17, and I think the market is over valued, and swinging like crazy. Do yourself a favor, set some limit orders and make sure you don't get screwed on the down side.

This hard landing in china is very much still coming. Analysts had predicted that the domestic import of iron in the country would be significantly offset by the use of scrap steel by 2025, and this prediction was made just a few years back. But already, just a few years later we are seeing a offset of iron prices from this scrap, 15 years early. China over built, and is now tearing down the old, to make way for more New. Eventually the scrap copper from those old torn down projects will reach the market, just like the iron.

the future of mining, and investing in mining will mostly be driven by a few things in my opinion. the first is battery production, using Lithium or whatever replaces Li ION batteries, rare earth metals ETC. and the second will be whatever replaces or upgrades steel. I.e. Molybdenum, however since moly was so actively searched out for in the 80's during a similar commodities boom, there are too many known deposits, so its likely not a stock cash cow.

Bottom line, good pull on the 20%, but mining stocks are like a big titted girl on a trampoline, what goes up, must come down.


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PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22352776 - 10/09/15 12:19 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
Now up 18.30%.  With buyout rumors circling at $20/share, the Indonesia mine deal finally worked through, and talk of jettisoning the oil component, FCX is going to blow through $15 as long as Janet Yellen can keep her mouth shut about a rate increase.  Upswing on huge volume.  Things are really looking up on this stock.




Bro that stock is super sketch....


Yahoo
Quote:

Return on Equity (ttm): -27.58%


Profit Margin (ttm): -34.27%








Plus coal is dying/dead. Im not seeing it.


Rates are at 0 so they obviously can only go up. It’s not If, It’s when.


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22352815 - 10/09/15 12:30 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Sharpe Ratio: 1.84



The market is insanely volatile right now, and that stock gonna be boom or bust regardless of that. So it really depends on how risk aversive you are.
Me personally: no


It sounds like you have gotten a decent return, but i think the market has to enter a recessionary state sooner or later, and when it does that company is going to get fucked.


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22352830 - 10/09/15 12:35 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

actually, i drove past the Climax Molybdenum mine today outside of Leadville Co, which is owned by FCX, not that it  matters much, but it didnt seem too active or alive at all... but then again most of it is underground


--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22355890 - 10/09/15 07:02 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
What's your feel on this stock?  Seems like Carl Icahn is forcing their hand to make some good changes like dumping its debt ladden oil sector.




Pretty ugly financial statements:

Last 6 months $8.4 billion in sales revenue but $13.7 billion in operating expenses = $5.3 billion operating loss....That's a company almost losing $1 billion/month. With some accounting tricks ("benefit from income taxes = positive $1.382 billion their total net income loss last 6 months was $4.325B):



From a charting perspective looks good short term with fair amount of resistance at $17 ($17 was the low in January and again in March and then in July it seemed to bump its head a number of times on $17 but not get through). As of today the 50 candle WEEKLY moving average is around $18.65 but dipping slightly each week. The 200 DAY moving average is also headed towards $17 (if these averages time correctly with the price of the stock and all meet around $17 I would be fairly confident it would not pass through)...

On a good note, the 50 day moving average has bottomed out, is curling, and beginning to point up, looks really good actually. As a general rule of thumb, if the 50 day moving average is flat the stock will trade flat, if it is pointed down it goes down, and when the 50dma is up the stock will continue to move up over the next couple months (of course that doesn't mean it won't dip back down to $12 before moving to $17 or be a complete fakeout on all technical indicators and crash back down):



Edited by Confucian (10/10/15 10:50 AM)


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: Confucian]
    #22355966 - 10/09/15 07:17 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)



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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: Confucian]
    #22357985 - 10/10/15 08:18 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

i get the sense of a stocks floor in the current market Im more inclined to pay higher price that I can be confident in. I think when you buy into rally rather than precieved bottom it will play out better on short term for selling. Can anyone add to this thought/timber market prefferably NA?


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22359038 - 10/10/15 12:47 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

essentially stocks aren't a handout but With them being so integral to development of a individual business you would think they could be better tought to schools. I have cultivated an interest in coal specifically charcoal. One thing that rings true to the pracicallity of the carbon is how integrated this is to the construction of a developing world, with intent of the various free trade agreements it seems the pacification of nations will begin in a new way that is by  introducing less developed countries to the way of the west, that is building to the sky so for as long as we build up their will need to be BTU's from coal, I obviously would not be able to assess the effects on a chinese coal producing market minus North american coal energy but I continue to describe the relevance of coal in a world of limitless expansion.


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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Offlineorison
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22359088 - 10/10/15 12:57 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

4 ref:awehigh:


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: orison]
    #22361235 - 10/10/15 11:11 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Thanks for your helpful responses.  I agree that in a rate increase environment, FCX will get hammered.  That has certainly been the case when the Fed even gives a glimmer of possibility of a rate increase.  Still though, the chance of a December rate increase seems lessened in the past few weeks. 

The ICSG report put out a few days ago notes:

Quote:

ICSG projections for 2015 indicate that the market should essentially remain balanced, while in 2016 ICSG forecasts a small
deficit of around 130,000 metric tonnes (t) as demand growth outpaces production growth. This compares with a surplus of
360,000 t and 230,000 t for 2015 and 2016, respectively, forecast at our April 2015 meeting. The revisions reflect substantial
changes in market conditions since April 2015. Although a downward revision has been made to global usage in view of lower
than anticipated growth in China, larger downward adjustments have been made to production as a result of recent
announcements of production cuts.




This seems in line with the majority of commentators reflecting a modest step towards copper supply rebalancing during 2016.  Still though, this is certainly a speculative trade as a rate increase or lower than expected 2016 copper prices could send FCX into the toilet.  At the same time, I have seen more and more recent articles over the past week or two that suggest that commodities have bottomed and people should go buy--even an update to buy from Market Edge yesterday.  Perhaps that is driving at least part of the significant stock movement over the past week.  I'm very intrigued to see what the Q3 report will say for this one.  From a charting perspective, if we can see support at $12, that will be a good sign of things to come.  With only a loss of 4% of institutional investors over the past 6 months despite the plummeting price, that seems to be a favorable sign of a near term recovery.


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


Edited by All We Perceive (10/10/15 11:16 PM)


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22362820 - 10/11/15 11:20 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Trade in canadian timber lol


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


Edited by TravelerOfSorts (10/12/15 07:06 AM)


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
    #22371156 - 10/12/15 10:31 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

TravelerOfSorts said:
i get the sense of a stocks floor in the current market Im more inclined to pay higher price that I can be confident in. I think when you buy into rally rather than precieved bottom it will play out better on short term for selling. Can anyone add to this thought/timber market prefferably NA?





I was told by a finance professor that if you do the opposite of the market (sell when everyone is buying) you will perform at +1% on the market.
Warren Buffet advocates also advocates that line of thinking.


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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22371183 - 10/12/15 10:36 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

That's the basic premise of "Buy High Sell Higher" by Joe Tarranova.  That may have been true in the bull market after the financial collapse or in the 90s when pretty much everything moved up and the issue was how much you were going to gain.  In today's market of extreme volatility, doesn't seem so good.


--------------------


"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak


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Invisibleelax420
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #22377582 - 10/14/15 09:27 AM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

All We Perceive said:
That's the basic premise of "Buy High Sell Higher" by Joe Tarranova.  That may have been true in the bull market after the financial collapse or in the 90s when pretty much everything moved up and the issue was how much you were going to gain.  In today's market of extreme volatility, doesn't seem so good.





Thats exactly what its intended for.


Go look at Volkswagen. They took a hit yesterday and probably today, but it wasn’t a bad idea to buy like a week ago after they got fucking hammered and everyone was doing nothing but sell.


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: elax420]
    #22378997 - 10/14/15 02:49 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

elax420 said:
Go look at Volkswagen. They took a hit yesterday and probably today, but it wasn’t a bad idea to buy like a week ago after they got fucking hammered and everyone was doing nothing but sell.




not always the case

could've said the same thing right after LL took a hit.  and I did think it, in fact.  Rode it from $29 to $33 in late march/earlyapril, then got rid of it all, and good thing.  Down down down down down


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OfflineTravelerOfSorts
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2015 [Re: memes]
    #22381029 - 10/14/15 09:43 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

It was called being a shrewd investor, to buy in bear after market decline and sell in bull.
To become better at this I learned to look at market capital, shares, and sales. This is some basic things to keep an eye on at a glance.

From the intelligent investor I looked at comparisons primarily to find this list of key noticeable features intrinsic to a common stock. I'll keep them somewhat grouped together as I wrote them down:
Eps, Price Range
Dividend Rate, Price / earnings
Assets / Liability's
NumbeR of shares MaRket value
Book value and earnings
Growth in per share earnings

From this their are two key things that make a company standout and its not necessarily only P/E ratio or EPS but all the things play a part in selecting a stock, as a whole it appears important all of these things are met and from another section of the book you can read, that sometimes dividend can be sacrificed for growth.
But first notice a stock how many shares there are, the price of each and then I would look at sales next and see EPS or P/E.
just those things mentioned can help you spot something good or something wrong. to further taht book value seems to be assets/liabilities so again further that by looking at this book value, to the price of course, then you must consider quantity of shares of course. thanks


--------------------
a soul of solitude
but a master of ecstacy
in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man
walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other
a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for October 15, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #22383605 - 10/15/15 02:00 PM (8 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I am expecting that we will see another leg down to test those flash August lows before the year is out.  But ya never know!




Well, we did get "another leg down", and while it came close, it didn't quite make it all the way down to those August 24th lows on the S&P (the Nasdaq was even more resilient).  I am surprised at the strength of the market over the past few weeks, very surprised.  I sat out most of this little run, as the volatility was just too hard for me to navigate with any confidence.  I made a few trades on the VXX and UVXY, but all I have to show for it is lost time.  Volatile environments are, by definition, very difficult to trade with any sort of consistency.

That said, I am still gun shy, as we are now banging our heads right up against the breakdown level in the S&P.  One would expect that the market would pull back here, but the action today screams that it's off to the races, under the assumption that the Fed's hands are tied and interest rates will not be hiked in the near future.  The marraige of the market to the Fed is frustratingly simplistic.  Oddly enough, it has been my thesis all along that the Fed would likely not raise rates this year, but the breakdown in prices in late August shook me out, in no small part because there were no real pockets of strength anywhere in the global market... and yet, here we are, up another 1.5% on the heels of mixed to mediocre bank earnings, poor retail numbers, increasing East/West geopolitical tension and a Fed official stating that he can make the case to raise rates even if their 2% inflation targets are not met.  What the hell?

I'm having a really hard time wrapping my head around how this market can sustainably move higher, and yet that's what it appears to be doing.  Not wanting to sit out entirely, I have added to two existing positions.  MBLY has been consolidating at its 200 day moving average for the past month, after putting in what appears to be a triple bottom at around $42.  It now looks to be peaking out above the consolidation range, and given that I believe in the long term prospects of this company (they make sensors for automated/assisted driving software), I doubled down today, having already been up about 20% on some January 2017 $50 calls.  I also had a covered call position in NFLX ahead of earnings, owning common stock and having sold the Nov $120 call.  I bought back the call today for a 97% gain, which covered roughly half of the loss I took on the common thanks to their poorly received earnings report.  I also hold a short $100 put that expires tomorrow, which if NFLX stays above $100, will cover the other half of the loss I took on the common (if NFLX is under $100, I'll buy shares at a net cost of $94.50).  I also sold some bull put spreads on NFLX, the Nov $90/$95, for $1.45 credit, and will look to sell more calls against my common stock on a lift back to the stock's 50 day moving average.  Further, I picked up some January and March 2016 $100 calls on the stock.  As you can see, I'm taking today's drawback as an opportunity to add exposure to a company that is disrupting traditional media, growing both domestically and overseas and just raised the price for its HD streaming service from $8.99 to $9.99/mo (although this increase will not affect existing customers until October of 2016).

AMZN is moving higher into its earnings report.  I had a position in this that would've been doing great, but as with so many positions in this environment, I was shaken out by the volatility.  The oil/energy complex looks buyable here on a pullback, for longer term value-oriented positioning.  Keep an eye on CVX with its nice dividend, I'll be buying on a successful retest of $80-$82 (rode it from $83-$88 last week).  FB has been bouncing around in a fairly wide (but tightening) range for a while now, it's got good fundamentals and if the market overall weren't sketching me out, I would be holding this (I do have a few bids in place in case it pulls back).

We'll have to wait and see what happens... although I am bullish on the aforementioned stocks, I'll be keeping the bulk of my money out of the market for the time being, and watch to see how we deal with the resistance zone we are attempting to chew through.  Best of luck to those with the stomach to trade in this environment, it's really a meat grinder.


--------------------

--------------------
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...π╥ ╥π...


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