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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22135510 - 08/24/15 01:36 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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What appeared to be a pretty strong bounce has given way to more selling pressure in the last hour. The renewed wave of selling has once again created intermittent connectivity issues with my broker software. Although I have yet to be locked out, data is coming in at a snail's pace and many others have been locked out of their accounts for periods ranging up to one hour. This is a very dangerous market, but I am starting to lick my chops and have as such initiated one volatility based trade. I bought a quarter-size position of VXX January $20 puts @ $3.60. I have another order for another quarter-size @ $3, and will look to add additional higher strike puts as the opportunity may present itself in the coming days and weeks. I also have a low ball bid in for some SPY Oct $180 calls at $8, as well as some Sept $185 calls at $6.
At this time, I am all cash except for the small VXX Jan $20 puts, and I am actually up on the day, albeit only marginally.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Corporal Kielbasa


Registered: 05/29/04
Posts: 17,235
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22140787 - 08/25/15 01:00 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Just wondering here. Why would a broker not call you on a low day then says hey buy more of this today after it already made gains? Not saying it won't go up further. It just seems to be a day late and a dollar short. I understand yesterday was rough for trading.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Hrmm... I'm afraid I'm not quite grasping your question.
However, I can say that brokers don't really call anyone these days. Typically, it's the client calling the broker, if anyone is making a phone call at all.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Corporal Kielbasa


Registered: 05/29/04
Posts: 17,235
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22145324 - 08/26/15 09:48 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Ah yeah. I wasn't paying attention on Monday and missed getting stuff at the lowest before it bounced back up. I just need to be more active at this.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Unfortuantely, unless you had good-til-cancelled bids in place prior to the open, it was difficult to get any of those massive spike low prices you see on the tape. Many broker houses were not functioning amidst the carnage. My TDAmeritrade/ThinkOrSwim platform remained connected and receiving data, albeit at a snail's pace. Alerts were coming in over an hour late, some orders would not show up at all, other people I know could not cancel their orders and did not receive a trade confirmation for upwards of an hour. In that type of environment, there really isn't much you can do. I'm not one to say that the market is "rigged" - but it is those moments of extremely high volume and panic action that benefit the high frequency trading firms with direct lines, and kind of screw you and I who trade through a normal brokerage house.
In other news, the market remains very weak and, in my view, the best course of action is sit on cash and do little to nothing. I have lowered my bid on the second tranche of January VXX $20 puts I started buying at $3.60. My next purchase, if filled, will be at $2.20, which would bring me to a half sized position. I also have a good-til-cancelled bid in on some MBLY Jan 2017 $50 calls at $10, and am attempting to sell some Sept $40 puts on the SVXY at $4. I would really like to see some sort of rally here so I can start selling some bear call spreads with more favorable premiums, but this market is just incredibly weak.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Confucian
...


Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22145914 - 08/26/15 11:34 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Luckily, with the market up so high (Dow almost +300) my Oct $199 SPY puts are only down 9% today
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: Confucian]
#22146303 - 08/26/15 12:45 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Implied volatility remains elevated, which will help preserve the value of your puts even on an upswing. However, market stabilization, at any level, will bleed value out of options. This is why I have been slowly attempting to wade into shorting volatility, by buying puts on the VXX and selling puts on the SVXY (no fill on these yet). The market looks to be stabilizing here, but it's been so choppy that I'm sure most traders are a bit gun shy. Frankly, I am less concerned about missing a big upswing, as I expect that any rally will ultimately be sold, and have placed a few more good-til-cancelled orders in attempts to catch some of my favorite stocks for longer term positioning, in the event we do see another spike lower:- FB Jan 2017 $75 calls at $15
- PANW Jan 2017 $150 calls at $30
- NFLX Jan 2017 $80 calls at $25
I have also sold a bear call spread on TSLA by shorting the Sept $255 calls and buying the $265 calls for a net credit of $1.05. The stock has failed at its 50 day moving average, and is now below its 200 day moving average, with all major moving averages turning downwards. I would be very surprised to see this thing back above $255 by September expiration. The delta on this trade indicates an approximately 6% chance of that happening, meaning I have a 94% chance of keeping the $1.05 premium. That's a high probability trade, but if TSLA moves back above its 20 day moving average, I will have to close this spread out of prudence. Fortunately, by that time, more time value will have bled out of the options such that I probably won't have lost very much money in the unlikely event I do have to close it out for a loss.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22147370 - 08/26/15 04:06 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Bot some FCX at 7.80 this afternoon and sold the Sep 4th 8 and 8.5 calls against it with stock at 7.95.
Bot some MRO at 14.20 this afternoon and sold the Sep 4th 14.5 calls at .57 and the 15.5 calls at .21. Stock closed at 14.66.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#22149673 - 08/27/15 12:59 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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This volatility will continue till asia figures their shit out. Many of my stocks haven't reflected the backlash but one has a lot! I really want to hit the miss I missed before!!!!!!!
It's a dice game everyday for the next few weeks to we stabilize. I'd buy up but my focus is already on a few.
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: Gorlax]
#22150549 - 08/27/15 09:27 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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funny thing in canada, I'm getting into finance. you see canadian media attempted to shock people by reporting the stock market was down, a week later they were happy to report the stock market is up. It's the vocabulary and things to understand. ai'm not seeing much financial education there needs to be lime knowledge sharring. I am in some stocks and I know where they are going now. I really think the"you dono the market" thing is a lie and that moving up in knowledge/wisdom and even High end careers that you would find there is a firm understanding of exactly what the future of markets. Need good esoteric news for people. I really want to buy BBD.B I was watching for a specific news article as a buying trigger and that news came, its 1.20 open today. I'm thinking tonite I'll put an order in before market close I will check stockhouse, and I hope this time frame will be just enough time to find out weather today or tomorrow will be the better day.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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question:a stock is in canadian will american investors- do they buy the same amount for less or do they possibly buy more for the same amount of dollars. seemingly simple question but if you all make lets say 11$ an hour and invest maybe 250$ bi weekly it means 32% more stock. essentially doesnt a weak dollar relatively mean the strong dollar is more readily in a place to take you over?
what im trying to get at is americans do they have slightly larger holdings of canadian stocks then when canadians own the TSX?
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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The only Canadian stocks Americans would hold would be the dual listed ones for the most part. So a few banks, Suncor, Enbridge, the railways, maybe a few telecoms, a few gold miners and potash.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/lists-and-rankings/best-stocks/investor-500-2015-canadas-biggest-15-companies-by-market-cap/
Probably the top 15 by market cap. Americans probably wouldn't hold many Canadian stocks because we are so tied to their economy there isn't much diversification as opposed to buying some European markets, emerging markets, Asian, Korean, Russian.
The correlation co-efficient is too high between the two to be a meaningful diversification. They corelate .9599.
Currency and foreign exchange rates are definately a part of my asset allocation, especially because the NYSE has much higher quality companies than the TSE and I have moved to almost 45% US dollar holdings as the CDN dollar has weakened and that has boosted my returns, but a US Investor would have lost on their currency exchange.
BCE.to - Up 9.2% on 1 year. Great dividend telecom. BCE.nyse - Down 10% on 1 year. Same company, same dividend. The 20% difference is all currency exchange.
Similarly, Potash Corp, Enbridge and all the other dual listings will have a 20% difference between their NYSE listing and their TSE listing.
Any USA investor worth their salt would have moved to more domestic holdings that are not affected by foreign exchange rates as the US dollar strengthened.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
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Going to ONC shares, and I know its penny stock but, look at the product its cure for cancer. Before getting into mushrooms/mushrooms getting into me I loved this idea of a virus' natural cycle killing cancer, because I came up with it on my own a teacher encouraged me to find out myself and it was real, newly discovered, emerging: their website used to be a block of text. I own shares of JTR join the revolution, the quantitative uncertainty is very high. ONC is the same.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
Edited by TravelerOfSorts (08/27/15 07:48 PM)
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Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 16 days, 3 hours
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Dont invest on penny stock cancer cures too many dynamics always denied by FDA if they even get as far as a NDA. My opinion. I've tried many cancer stocks the only true one is a replacement of a current drug aldoxorubicin is gonna be replaced by doxorubicin... the current one by johnson-johnson is used everywhere.... ( - CYTR - low now... Best time to hold a stock is forever - warren buffett.
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Confucian
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Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2015 [Re: Gorlax]
#22155096 - 08/28/15 06:48 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Gorlax said:Best time to hold a stock is forever - warren buffett.
Ya, if you don't rely on the money and have a lot of it.
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Confucian]
#22155543 - 08/28/15 09:29 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
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re reading your first page again, I noticed this thesis thing so you going to start computing your findings and release a book or something?
my penny stocks are slaying lol 3 days 20% on my gold and bronze. silver medal isn't winning and ONC took off to a few percent gain. I read something that diversification is something that everyone's doing but that diversification is supplementing another key to investing elsewhere. and I think it was just buy good stock. What is buffet going for anyway?
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
Edited by TravelerOfSorts (08/28/15 09:35 AM)
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
#22169345 - 08/31/15 02:14 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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I would be very surprised if I ever wrote a book . I just put together the first post in this thread to introduce the topic to people new to investing, so that they could sink their teeth into something a little more comprehensive than "I like stock XYZ, buy it!". 
As for Buffet, he just bought outright Precision Castparts (PCP) and has also been buying a stake in Philips 66 (PSX).
Market remains rather schizophrenic. I shorted some GILD today via Oct $105 puts, since the stock broke its 200 day last Monday, struggled to regain it by a hair and today started rolling over back underneath it. Looks like the 200 day will serve as resistance for a while, and I am also considering selling some Sept $110/$115 bear call spreads for $1.25-$2 in premium, if I can get it.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: geokills]
#22169472 - 08/31/15 02:42 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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market down today, even with the oil boon. not inspiring confidence
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: memes]
#22170697 - 08/31/15 07:05 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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I gotta get reading again, I want to know what the frig these options mean. Hey man warren bought PCP aye? I know you guys probably have model world views in your minds, dont u all wish the world moved past needing the cummuter cars and consumer shit? but for real the actual physical reality seems to move according to these movement by the rusty old men, seems to keep their paradime in check of this shift into you know aluminum cars and such. not to be long winded but i bought food of the gods and I bought into terrence when I was in high school and I dream of something more, I wonder in accordance with the realistic physical paradidge, can we see anything else comming up? like mycotechnology is not even slightly tapped into especially on the market. U feel me? Like By the means and looks of its this thing that agriculture is going to need to be multiplied something like way more then the old philosophical 1 order per season, so where can we loo for new farming conditions, like africa is probably untapped, canada has the wood and water, like where can we futuristic minded shroomers find the curb like I'm positive that im being called about getting ahead of this curve, I'm exclusively into ventures and I think I've made 2 really good calls with stocks as XAU made a 60% jump the day after I looked into it. its alternate currency. theres GORE he knows the biotech it seems,, U feel me, Like u can say there no way of knowing which company will succeed but I think you know the past here where people were ahead of there time and they got killed for it? now adays you get people ahead of there time that are right on point and accepted, and becomming industry leaders. so many company's like this 3d printing thing, you know should think tank it.. technology? really
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
#22171375 - 08/31/15 09:24 PM (8 years, 4 months ago) |
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Aluminium is crap for car frames because it will cost you 6x the normal amount for body work. All fun and dandy until your woman backs into a sign poast or some shit. The rest of that ramble... oh my.

I thought there was a graem for it, but whatever.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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