|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 15 minutes
|
|
Quote:
Bambi said: I've noticed you're talking a lot more about options than you did 4 years ago (or at least I'm noticing more). Do you think options are a better way to play the market?
Over the years, I have migrated to trading almost exclusively options. Really the only time I don't trade options, is when trading a stock that isn't optionable, or where there is so little liquidity in the options that the spreads are too wide to allow for reasonably tight entries/exits. In the later case, I will often do a covered call or naked put strategy. Whether or not options are a "better" way to trade the market really depends on your individual trading style and discipline. They are leveraged instruments, so when you hit a good trade, your jaw will drop at how quickly your account balance can grow. Of course, the flip side is that if you aren't doing a good job of picking your entries, or if you don't manage your position size, a few bad option trades can absolutely murder your account.
To put this in perspective, when I was trading strictly common stock, a big daily fluctuation in my portfolio value would be somewhere around 3%. Now that I'm trading almost exclusively options, a 3% fluctuation is pretty much guaranteed on any given day, and I've seen fluctuations as high as 15% in a single day. This type of volatility is not for the faint of heart, and can really screw with one's ability to make rational and disciplined trading decisions. If you are confident in your ability to consistently take low risk entries and mitigate your risk through position size and scaling, and if you can handle the larger swings without panicking, then I would say to give options a try. As a way to get your feet wet without taking on huge risk, try selling some out of the money calls with short expirations, against some of your existing common stock, also known as a covered call strategy. This is the lowest risk option strategy out there.
Quote:
TravelerOfSorts said: how much money are you making or lossing which ever on these strategys with all the lingo? [...]and another question from me of course, How does buying bonds work with a self directs account?
Can't tell you anything about bonds as I've never bought one. As for how much money I'm making or losing, I've been in a +/- 20% range for pretty much this entire year as the market has chopped around, so I've basically been working for free for the recent past and it's really starting to wear on me. But the discipline of staying involved is what allows me to have periods of time where I have, at my best, been up over 50% in the course of less than two months. You can only take what the market is willing to give, and it will be tedious and frustrating at times (this is one of those times). This type of work is not for everyone, and anyone who tells you it is easy to consistently make big gains in the stock market is either a fool or a liar. Most often, they are simply someone who hasn't been trading for very long and might have gotten involved during a period of general market strength, which can make any trader feel like a genius.
Quick position update: Ditched WYNN today, it fell back into the range below its 50 day moving average. If it breaks out above $105-$107, I'll probably get back in, but I don't feel any need to hold onto this right now. I did pick up some TWTR Sept $27 calls at $2.90. The stock is down huge since announcing earnings, and yesterday's bounce is holding, even amidst today's terrible aggregate market action. That relative strength is encouraging. Lastly, SUNE, oh jeez, what have I gotten myself into with this one. I really like this company, and just can't believe how people are throwing out the stock. I am now short Aug 14 $15.50, Aug 14 $15, Aug 21 $13 and Aug 21 $12 puts. If these are all assigned to me, I will own a fuckton of SUNE with a net cost basis of $13.25, which, frustratingly, is right where the stock is presently trading. I'm pretty much maxed out on position size with this one, so my sale of a final batch of Aug 21 $12 puts at $0.50 today will be my last put sale on this stock for the next couple of weeks at least. I can handle buying the 4000 shares that I may be forced to buy here, but that's as deep as I'm willing to go. This is a good example of the importance of scaling however, as when I first sold the Aug 14th $15.50 puts for a $0.47 credit last week, I kept the position small enough to be able to add to it with lower strikes and higher premium value if the stock kept falling. Since that was part of my original strategy, I am not panicking about being down substantially on my initial put sales... but there is a line in the sand when it comes to maximum tolerable risk, and discipline necessitates that I must not let this position get any larger. With the stock down 60% in less than a month, I am still confident that this trade will ultimately work itself out, but it surely has not been a fun ride.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
Posts: 2,620
Loc: The Great Divide
Last seen: 3 years, 11 months
|
Re: Stock Update for August 10, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22081155 - 08/12/15 12:22 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Dude First Solar is the better solar company. That said SUNE looks like a good value right now. Up more than 5% today! I would consider buying it at this price, but I already have a lot of money in the sector so maybe I'll look elsewhere for the sake of diversity.
I think the fall in grain prices today is very significant. I can't see the fed raising rates in this deflationary environment. Especially not if China continues to allow the yuan to fall.
|
TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
|
|
The wealthy barber returns.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
|
Confucian
...


Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA
|
Re: Stock Update for August 10, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22093910 - 08/15/15 08:05 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
geokills said: Over the years, I have migrated to trading almost exclusively options.
I think you said earlier that a safe trade would be to short a call that is out of the money? So say ABC is trading at $100 and the $120 SEP calls are at $1.00.
You short that $1 call and because of time decay and the fact that they go to zero out of the money you make relatively easy money on the trade...
I have a question - say you had 1 call @ $1 (shorted, and worth $100).
Now say ABC opens the following day @ $150, and all the calls sky rocket.
(I've seen calls jump 2500% or more on rare occasion...)
So the $120 SEP calls skyrocket from $1 to $25.
At $2, your $100 is worth $0...at $3 wouldn't your $100 be worth -$100? And at $25 your account would be -$2300!?
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 15 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for August 10, 2015 [Re: Confucian]
#22098339 - 08/16/15 11:04 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
What you're talking about is selling/shorting naked calls, which is indeed very risky for the reasons you point out (potentially unlimited losses since there is no ceiling for how high a stock can potentially trade). What I was talking about above is selling/shorting covered calls. This means that you actually hold the underlying stock for the option you are shorting. So if the stock gets called away from you, because it is above the strike price of the option you sold, you have the shares in your position to deliver, such that you won't risk facing potentially unlimited losses. This does cap your upside, but typically if you choose your strike price carefully, you can bring in a lot of extra premium (almost like a self-made dividend) by selling out of the money calls against your existing position. In most cases, unless there is a buyout or major discovery that ramps the stock price something huge, having the stock called away from you still ends up being a good trade, since you keep the premium from the call (as well as the profit from your cost basis and where the stock was ultimately called away from you), and you can buy the stock back the next week, rinse and repeat (i.e. sell another covered call against the repurchased shares).
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 16 days, 4 hours
|
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2015 [Re: Confucian]
#22099392 - 08/16/15 04:27 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I forgot to check this thread. Fucking CPRX is at 4.11 now. I'm assuming from people selling off there huge profits. It did it a 52 week high then boom down. I'm in as I said at 2.46. I'm just concerned because these companies have drugs in their pipelines that could be blockbuster ones and lose out on a huge profit. The hardest part for me is to sell. I will put the the STOP sell at 3.50 if it drops below 4$
|
TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
|
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2015 [Re: Gorlax]
#22100444 - 08/16/15 09:05 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I'm starting to get bad feelings about this market I just noticed that every stock on my iphone except coke is doing the same thing where the negative of the chart makes the impression of someone sitting on the chart for to long and its seriously depressed. I have another 250$bid in a company that has 9months to pay 245m and can only get at most 155m paid by then, like I am buying tomorrow for the 52week low in hopes between now and then the activity in fluctuating oil and popularity in the company. what sort of things can a company do to avoid deffault they have 2+b in assets in a good market, they are lookin at dilution for 200m, I got to wonder not as much about a stock thats gripping by nothing, More interested if someone would show me how to option or short sell my holdings or something because I've got to find some places to curb immense losses. just wild movements right after buying in with what seems like fair price. I'm not depending on this money to buy shit or go places I'm trying to gain a little wisdom. sofar down 620$ probably 1000 if I included encana cummins. thanks I am considering pilling CAD or into Rrsp until canada isnt 25% off nationwide.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
|
I've gotta say, things are certainly more macrointeresting these days, thats for sure
|
Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 16 days, 4 hours
|
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2015 [Re: memes]
#22101104 - 08/17/15 12:09 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Anyone got any input on the stock NETE. I was just browsing forums and a top guy had a strong buy for this one. It's only at .21 a share and I've had my battles with penny stocks I usually stay far away.
|
TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
|
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2015 [Re: Gorlax]
#22102106 - 08/17/15 10:08 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
man screw that I'm not enjoying the maintenance with penny stocks I have little influence over major swings, everything oil is low, and not to mention why would you take note of a small company that you can buy shares in for a quarter. Get over the gamble, gore. I'm trying to notice now things, and totally placed my bets in this small corner, thats all I can do hope it makes me look better, because you have to dig for the info head honcho's are the ones who know what they are doing and probably dont care about holdings because they make fat checks. I'm going to buy stuff that has intrinsic in the company a map for their future, and a dope community/social financing network. what am I describing? possibly garmin, maybe canadian banks. like if you watched TSX:RY you'll see they have dipped, and They look better price wise now.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 15 minutes
|
Stock Update for August 17, 2015 [Re: Gorlax]
#22102449 - 08/17/15 11:37 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
TravelerOfSorts said: I'm starting to get bad feelings about this market...
Starting to? This market has been agonizingly rangebound and choppy, with a flat to negative bias for months. It's a very frustrating market to trade, and you'll be surprised how often it is, when things seem like they're just about to fall off a cliff and you're at the point where you throw your hands up and say fuhgettaboutit -- that's when the market decides it's time to move higher. Markets climb a wall of worry. If there isn't some measure of negative sentiment out there, there won't be anybody else left to provide the buying power necessary to move the market higher, because everyone will already be in and thus, potential sellers, not potential buyers. There is a cycle of power in the market, balancing between those who want to buy, those who have bought, those who want to sell, and those who have sold, and this cycle manifests in both short and long term time frames. Now I'm not saying the market is getting ready to break out, but we are, yet again, showing signs of support at the 200 day moving average on the S&P.
Just stick with stocks that are working. Examples: NFLX, MBLY, ULTA, MO, LULU. All of these stocks are either in well defined uptrends or at the very least, near the top of their range and consolidating so that you can easily define your risk. I know how tempting it is to try to pick a bottom and get the best value for your money, but more often than not, stocks trading at their lows in a market like this are not representing value, they are representing the difficult environment in which those businesses must operate, and their price is reflecting the lack of ease with which they can grow in the intermediate future.
On that note, I will readily admit that I have been playing with fire by attempting to catch the falling knife that is SUNE over the past two weeks by selling puts against it. I had 2,000 shares put to me over the weekend, for the $15.50 and $15 puts that I sold. The position is making me money, but man it's been a bit gut wrenching to stick with this trade. The only reason I did, is because I had a defined plan going in, that I would sell puts in scales, and I would ultimately be comfortable having the stock put to me at the prices I was committing myself to. I will now look to start selling covered calls against the 2000 shares I'm holding, and I expect that the $13 and $12 puts I sold which expire at the end of this week, will expire worthless.
Quote:
Gorlax said: Anyone got any input on the stock NETE. I was just browsing forums and a top guy had a strong buy for this one. It's only at .21 a share and I've had my battles with penny stocks I usually stay far away.
Penny stocks are a lottery ticket, nothing more.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
|
Re: Stock Update for August 17, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22102783 - 08/17/15 01:15 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Yup, definitely a more difficult market as of late. And still, I am positioned bullish.
I tried my first hand with the volatility indexes Friday and today. Picked up a few shares of UVXY at $25.85 minutes before the close on Friday. Then got out of my position within minutes of the open this morning at $26.73. Not a bad trade considering I was only in the position for about 10 minutes. Too bad I didn't have a larger position
I must say, I didn't particularly enjoy being involved in the volatility index. Like the VIX is up 2.5% right now, but the UVXY is down 2%. The UVXY seems to have an extreme negative disposition.... which makes me think that shorting it could prove lucrative.
And @Gorlax. I've been there and tried penny stocks (as it sounds you have too) and so I would have to say to stay away...
--------------------
"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 15 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for August 17, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
#22104352 - 08/17/15 08:26 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Trading volatility is interesting. I am not totally comfortable with it yet, but you are correct that the UVXY does have a definitively downward bias, with some major upside spikes along the way. A lot of the guys on the OptionMarketMentor forum play the volatility game by selling puts on UVXY, and with the contracts that are ultimately assigned, selling way out of the money calls against those shares. It's the selling of the calls that really brings in the money, but I don't have the stomach to sell them naked, and I don't like to tie up my capital sitting on a chunk of UVXY common. But I see these guys doing it, and they seem to be making a killing off of their strategy. Typically, if the market is quiet, they'll sell longer dated calls, and if the market has a sudden volatility spike, they'll sell a few shorter term expirations. The premium they bring in is impressive to say the least. I will probably start setting up a trade in this in the near future, likely to sell some weekly $24 puts, just a couple of contracts. If I get put the shares, I'll start selling longer dated out of the money calls against it and see if I can't whittle myself down to a negative cost basis, or have the shares called away for a quick and tidy profit.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 15 minutes
|
Stock Update for August 18, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22106192 - 08/18/15 10:56 AM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Just following up on my SUNE short-put-turned-short-call trade. I sold Aug 21st $15 calls @ $0.60 this morning, and Aug 21st $16 calls @ $0.40 this morning, ten contracts a piece against my 2000 shares of common, to bring in $1000 in credit premium. The stock has been falling all morning however, so I might have been better off just selling the common flat out. I wanted to give this one room to continue to bounce though, so I will intend to continue with this strategy and sell more calls next week, so long as my shares are not called away from me on Friday. My $12 and $13 short puts, both of which were sold in lots of 10 and brought in a combined $1000 in credit premium, appear likely to expire worthless on Friday as well.
My AMZN iron condor, with the $560/$575 bear call spread sold on top and the $500/$475 bull put spread sold on bottom, is also continuing to trade right in the middle of the range with both legs likely to expire worthless as intended.
ULTA had a nice pop this morning (I missed it as my attention was drawn to managing my SUNE trade), and FB is starting to look like it might be getting close to taking another stab at $100.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
|
Re: Stock Update for August 18, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#22106508 - 08/18/15 12:06 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
lol got to check on my investment in real time I have some greenspace brands, so I went to grocery store I've never been to to find it there. 9$ for 2L of milk and 6$ for a little tub of yogurt. glad I spent 600$ on their stock.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
|
Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 16 days, 4 hours
|
|
Well that person was right about that penny stock CLTX. Well if its even considered one idk because it is listed. Jumped 67% today, merged with another pharm company. Could of went in at .41 cents and came out 1.00+ ..... Pretty frustrating when you miss out because your worried About the gamble!!
|
memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
|
Re: Stock Update for August 18, 2015 [Re: Gorlax] 1
#22107831 - 08/18/15 05:55 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Gorlax said: Pretty frustrating when you miss out because your worried About the gamble!!
one thing i can guarentee in life is that you'll watch countless "could have been" situations walk past.
people were talking about bitcoins on here when they were ~$1.XX then they were $1,000+ each.
stocks do maddening things all the time on earnings. penny stocks mirror the irrationality of the broader equity markets, just exacerbated to extreme degrees - seeped in horrible odds and saturated in volatility.
|
Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
|
Re: Stock Update for August 18, 2015 [Re: Gorlax] 1
#22107943 - 08/18/15 06:16 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
sorry to hear you're regretting your decision.
But like Geo said, it's [an expensive] lottery ticket. You're always welcome to throw some money at that sort of thing, but don't consider it an investment. It's money you will probably never see again, but like lottery tickets, some people enjoy the thrill. So think about where you stand and how much money you feel safe "throwing away" and next time you can be better prepared to answer the question of the gamble.
Sorry you missed out on this one, but who really knew.
On the other side of the coin. I could see the stock having a good day tomorrow now that the stock has appeared on everyone's radar. High volume today and I bet even higher tomorrow, plus low float is a good sign. I might watch this stock for a quick trade tomorrow myself since I don't have much else going on. Above $1 would be good with a break out above $1.20. I could see it testing $1.50 or even $2.
But still, like I said, this is essentially still just throwing money in the wind. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
Edit. and I agree with Memes, ther are a fuck ton of "missed" opportunities in the stock market, can't beat yourself up about it
--------------------
"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
Edited by Bambi (08/18/15 06:18 PM)
|
TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
Last seen: 2 years, 4 months
|
Re: Stock Update for August 18, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
#22108083 - 08/18/15 06:48 PM (8 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
gorlax, have u considered it skyrockeded since he mentioned it because he mentioned it? the intelligent investor doesnt speculate if you baught taht you wouldnt ahve been investing you would have been speculating.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
|
Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
|
|
Quote:
TravelerOfSorts said: gorlax, have u considered it skyrockeded since he mentioned it because he mentioned it? the intelligent investor doesnt speculate if you baught taht you wouldnt ahve been investing you would have been speculating.
CLTX popped today because it announced: Quote:
Celsus Therapeutics Plc (NASDAQ: CLTX) and Volution Immuno Pharmaceuticals SA today announced that Celsus has entered into a securities purchase agreement for a private placement with a select group of investors, led by Deerfield, and including Venrock, Vivo Capital, Foresite Capital, New Enterprise Associates, QVT Financial, RA Capital Management and certain other institutional investors.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/11G050992-001.htm
--------------------
"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
|
|